Any guesses about a surprise ship this IAE?

[Montoya]

Funding for November is falling way short of the previous two years.

This is because Citizencon was an expensive trip for most people, so selling a big ship in October was not going to happen.

Now that we are heading into the final month of the year, I have a feeling CIG will be releasing something they know will bring in that extra 10-20M.

Combat ships always sell well, what is your best guess?

 

[Shadow Reaper]

Polaris by Dec 10, just in time for Christmas presents.

 

[Kaz]

It will be the Anvil Paladin.

 

[Thalstan]

Funding for November is falling way short of the previous two years.

This is because Citizencon was an expensive trip for most people, so selling a big ship in October was not going to happen.

Now that we are heading into the final month of the year, I have a feeling CIG will be releasing something they know will bring in that extra 10-20M.

Combat ships always sell well, what is your best guess?

Well, they have the polaris as the big ship, but I am not sure how much money that will bring in since it's already 6-7 years old.
Some have suggested that the Anvil Paladin might be the new ship. Rumors I have heard say Gunship, but I think that's because of Redeemer and Corsair NERF and people love to assume things are being done for the wrong reasons...then again, CIG has demonstrated they actually do this many time.
Powerful fighters/medium/medium-large ships are also good money-makers. A Vanguard type heavy fighter, especially one that is long range but only needs one pilot or maybe a cockpit only fighter like the F8 also would sell well. Would people buy a Drake heavy fighter? Heck, with DoaS, why are people even buying Drake?
However, a large connie type ship will probably be out completely as they just released the Starlancer series. Also, will people really want exploration ship now with the major changes they have announced? What's the value in a 315 or a DUR over the 300/325 or the base Freelancer?

Thing is, CIG shot themselves in the foot with all this talk about needing crew, etc. How many people are really going to take to crew that Connie or that Hammerhead of yours. How many people for that Polaris?

However, most of November and December sales from last year were from CitizenCon. I am not too concerned about the sales numbers yet.

I am more concerned about the huge drop-off in new citizens.

 

[BUTUZ]

I think they'll release the Idris. Should get some people loading up their credit cards.

 

[Thalstan]

They won't release the Idris =(

 

[Aramsolari]

An Anvil combat ship between large and capital sized makes sense to me.

 

[Ayeteeone]

A hauler big enough to carry a full size Valakar.

A Crusader starter that probably could have been a great medium or heavy fighter with a couple of component changes. Or a competitor to the Recon Cutter. Looks aside, I think CIG missed a trick with this one.

The Anvil 'Paladin' with 4 size 4 shields and turrets too slow to hit anything smaller than itself, and a snub bay for a Pisces that can only fit 1/4 of the crew.

The Drake "Troll" heavy fighter with no cargo capacity, just enough power for ballistics and one fuse that requires climbing out onto the short wing.

The MISC... 'Hentai'. NSFW but would sell really well.

The Origin "Spa". Similar to the MISC Hentai but classier for that upscale client.

A Brewery Module for the upcoming Space Stations. LTI is a must.

The Aegis Fire Sale. Not a ship, an actual sale for a manufacturer on the outs with the government.

 

[Thalstan]

I forgot, with Anvil having the last day, there will not be a big ship as Anvil will have 3 new ships for sale
Prices are estimates and warbond
Hornet MK II Ghost 175
Hornet MK II Tracker - 190
Medical Terrapin - 240
Combined with the other stuff, I think they are counting on those three selling like hotcakes

 

[Richard Bong]

The only thing I can think of, which would make up the funding loss for this year, is to sell the RSI Pegasus to backers.

No, I don't think they will but it would sell like hotcakes.

 

[Talonsbane]

I'm planning on skipping the Ghost & Tracker versions of the Hornet MK II, but I would be willing to pick up a Super Hornet variant of the Hornet MK II if for no other reason than to have a copilot to ride along while doing some crazy flying & blasting the song Danger Zone for the feels.

 

[Orion32]

Predicting next years big cash cow will be the Chris Roberts special, twin engine F7!

 

[Raven_King]

CIG may have a good November yet. Hard to compare 20 days of November this year before IAE with last year's November including IAE.

The October comparison is easier, both having had Citizen Con. Supposing 3000 (that seems high?) US backers who attended Citizen Con in Manchester each spent USD1000 more on travel and accommodation than they would have had to spend if it was in LA, and made up for that by not giving the same amount to CIG (which feels like an oversimplification), that might explain a dip in revenue this October vs last October of maybe USD $3M - it's probably less. The drop between revenue during Oct '23 and revenue in Oct '24 was more like US $6M. If CIG are managing their finances sensibly and not 'living hand to mouth' they can ride out some bumps, it doesn't need to be cause for alarm. Let's hope they are for the sake of their staff (and for ours).

 

[Thalstan]

CIG may have a good November yet. Hard to compare 20 days of November this year before IAE with last year's November including IAE.

The October comparison is easier, both having had Citizen Con. Supposing 3000 (that seems high?) US backers who attended Citizen Con in Manchester each spent USD1000 more on travel and accommodation than they would have had to spend if it was in LA, and made up for that by not giving the same amount to CIG (which feels like an oversimplification), that might explain a dip in revenue this October vs last October of maybe USD $3M - it's probably less. The drop between revenue during Oct '23 and revenue in Oct '24 was more like US $6M. If CIG are managing their finances sensibly and not 'living hand to mouth' they can ride out some bumps, it doesn't need to be cause for alarm. Let's hope they are for the sake of their staff (and for ours).

Scale though.
CitizenCon was what...4k of your closest friends? Yes, maybe those are also all of the largest whales out there, but surely those 4k doesn't account for it all.
let's say that none of the people who attended CitizenCon spent a single extra penny on ships.
4,000*500 (cost of the twin pack) = 2,000,000. Yes, that's a 1/3 of the drop, but it's not enough. We also know that the average citizencon person probably did drop some cash down. That's also 4k of the 5.4 million backers, so those are just a drop in the bucket.

What I think hit SC is a couple of things.

• Return of the 2 year meme. CR up there saying 2 more years and SQ42 will be released...we've been saying that for years. It's at least 2 years away. We also know that anytime that CR gives us a time, CIG never hits it. Now, MAYBE it happens, but I am not putting any money on it. If I had to and the over under is Dec 31, 2026, I am betting the over unless news comes out that it would require CIG to repay significant investor money (and it's written into the contracts that the investors do have the ability to pull out at 7 percent interest...
• The 1.0 downgrade. I think a lot of people got disillusioned with the 1.0 MVP. This is especially true of those that buy large multi player ships. We've been told for years that while players would be best, we would be able to hire NPC crew for their multi-player ships. NOW, we are being told that's not going to happen for 1.0. I think that's making a lot of folks feel a little leery of buying large multi-crew ships knowing they won't be able to "solo" them with hired NPCs.
• Master Modes - love it or hate it, I think Master Modes have driven some people a little batty since it was released. I am not going to take sides here, but it's been devisive
• The change from Sandbox exploration to mini theme park with PvP being the end game. I think that many people, me included, were under the impression that while PvP would be part of SC, it would not be most of SC. Unfortunately, I think that the changes they announced are going to drive a lot of players away. We were told we could leave and come back and things would be the same, we were told that PvP would be less than 10 percent of the game, we were told a lot of things that have now been changed and that combat will be a significant portion of the game. Let me ask this. Who are you going to go into combat with if there are no levels, skills, etc., but ONLY your own innate skill in piloting or playing a FPS game? Are you going to go in with your high reputation character who has absolutely nothing to lose, or are you going to go in with your main character that you have spent hundreds or thousands of hours on grinding reps, gathering blueprints on, and most importantly, have all of your resources on. Aka, you ships, your money, etc. Simple, you are going to use the throwaway character because your main brings nothing to the table in combat abilities, but it has a lot less to lose if you are killed off. (and trust me, the enemy will make sure they absolutely riddle your body/turn it to a fine mist if it means that it has a chance to cause you a perma death or major injury and means you need to have you pay a significant amount of money in a death tax or forces you to use a less capable character with some sort of prosthesis)
• A pause for the Construction ships. Base building was the main thing they pushed this year, but they released no new base building ships to build on that excitement. They also have the whole galaxy debacle which a lot of folks are still upset with them over, even though they backtracked very quickly. People may also wanting/waiting on a base building pack so they can get the pioneer with LTI
• Loss of interest. For the past two years, CIG has had fewer people signing up to be citizens. Combined with people now going back to pre-Covid spending habits PLUS the higher costs in food and other things, and people in general have less money to spend on luxury like .jpg or 3D spaceships, and it's only natural that CIG would be looking at less revenue.

CIG is causing their own problems and it's only going to be a matter of time before revenue drops off. This year, next, whatever, and it will drop. That will be what actually forces CIG to release SQ42 and ultimately, SC at whatever level of quality they can get it before the money runs out.

 

[Raven_King]

Good points, @Thalstan. Agree with practically all of that.

The change from Sandbox exploration to mini theme park with PvP being the end game. I think that many people, me included, were under the impression that while PvP would be part of SC, it would not be most of SC. Unfortunately, I think that the changes they announced are going to drive a lot of players away.

Yeah, my inner vision of what the game will be has had to change a bit. With some time I may come to appreciate the future they're now aiming for, but the idea of being off in the black, able to spend nearly all our time doing quality PvE exploration and exploitation-style stuff with little chance of ever running across someone else unless I want to, but then finding it easy to go be social with the org when I'm in the mood to or want to trade, seems at odds with the new vision.

A pause for the Construction ships.

I hadn't considered that, since I think most of us didn't really have a short or medium-term expectation for construction ships, beyond the vision set out in the concept teaser for base building in CitizenCon 2953. Do you think the much, much more developed concept presentation for base building this year, and news that the Pioneer was reconcepted and about to enter early production, might contribute to a drop in ship sales? As a Pioneer-owner, I'm totally stoked about that, even if it doesn't really turn into anything for over a year yet (I expect base building will take quite a bit longer than a year to get to the PU).

But overall well said.

 

[Talonsbane]

Just a reminder in regards of the declining ship sale income for CIG, the last few years, the economy has been decreasing while inflation has been sky rocketing. Hopefully, in the next several years, that will stabilize if not improve for as many backers as possible.

 

[Sky Captain]

Combat ships always sell well, what is your best guess?

One of the ships somewhere in CIG's queue?

• Anvil gunship
• Graycat CAV
• RSI Zeus MR
• Crusader Intrepid
• Anvil Hornet Mk II variants
• Anvil Terrapin medical variant
• MISC Fortune
• MIRAI Guardian
• MISC Starlancer BLD variant
• Next ATLS Titan Suit iterations
• Anvil 6+ wheeled armored vehicle with a turret on top

 

[Mudhawk]

Still waiting for the Anvil Terrorpin.
Scanner seat turns into a gunner seat for the transplanted Nova Tonk turret on top...
Doubles as a Hovertank!

 

[Richard Bong]

I'm planning on skipping the Ghost & Tracker versions of the Hornet MK II, but I would be willing to pick up a Super Hornet variant of the Hornet MK II if for no other reason than to have a copilot to ride along while doing some crazy flying & blasting the song Danger Zone for the feels.

My F7c Mk II is my only small ship that can run box missions. Otherwise I'll have to run box missions in my Cutlass Blue. :) Especially since I'm seriously considering converting my MSR to a Redeemer.

 

[Richard Bong]

CIG may have a good November yet. Hard to compare 20 days of November this year before IAE with last year's November including IAE.

The October comparison is easier, both having had Citizen Con. Supposing 3000 (that seems high?) US backers who attended Citizen Con in Manchester each spent USD1000 more on travel and accommodation than they would have had to spend if it was in LA, and made up for that by not giving the same amount to CIG (which feels like an oversimplification), that might explain a dip in revenue this October vs last October of maybe USD $3M - it's probably less. The drop between revenue during Oct '23 and revenue in Oct '24 was more like US $6M. If CIG are managing their finances sensibly and not 'living hand to mouth' they can ride out some bumps, it doesn't need to be cause for alarm. Let's hope they are for the sake of their staff (and for ours).

If you don't include November at all this year is trending to finish behind 2020. With a great IAE they will beat 2020, but that is still a big loss compared to 21, 22 and 23.