Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

[August]

The following podcasts are from Chimaera of the org Imperium, and were recorded in early Feb.

These provide a perspective on the outbreak as seen from Hong Kong.

https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042%2Fwuhan-audio View: https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042/wuhan-audio/s-VelnL


https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042%2Fwuhan-audio2 View: https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042/wuhan-audio2/s-94phw

 

[Montoya]

While this isn't my area of expertise, I do have a doctorate degree in pharmacy and have a good grasp on the approval process and science.

Excellent!

Im always very skeptical about these public companies who are quick to hit the press with mentions of curing what ever the hot button topic is.

Ive seen plenty of them over the decades make promises and rush to phase 1 and 2, only to never deliver.

If its different this time around, then good.

 

[Glum]

Excellent!

Im always very skeptical about these public companies who are quick to hit the press with mentions of curing what ever the hot button topic is.

Ive seen plenty of them over the decades make promises and rush to phase 1 and 2, only to never deliver.

If its different this time around, then good.

Let's hope for everybody's sake that they nail this one quickly.

 

[Blind Owl]

Let's hope for everybody's sake that they nail this one quickly.

Amen to that.

 

[August]

This is Chimaera’s latest podcast, updated today and from a Hong Kong perspective.

https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042%2Fwuhan-audio-3 View: https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042/wuhan-audio-3/s-P0ttT

 

[GarikDuvall]

@Jolly_Green_Giant Thanks for making this thread! I'm an Emergency Management Specialist with FEMA (with a specialty in CBRNE), so I've been trying to follow all this as best I can (though my primary focus is on other areas). I get the most up to date numbers from the gov, but can't always share them as majority of the reports are restricted dissemination. But whatever information I am able to share I will.

On a slightly different note, I'm in a Facebook group for people who run anime/gaming/nerd cons in the US and there is already concerns about the effects this will have on events and business etc. I told them, they all need to have contingency plans for this. If a lot of conventions/festivals have to reschedule or cancel this year it will be detrimental to their organizations, and I can see some not surviving another year if that happens. Fingers crossed for CitienCon, as LA is not going to be a good place to be if there is a pandemic.

 

[Odiam]

Honoured colleagues, I would like to put things a little more in perspective by mentioning a few simple facts.
As of now, the covid19 has infected North of 500 people in Italy, which is one of the main infection areas the health organisations are focusing on. 12 deads, all of which had an already compromised health situation from causes independent from the covid virus.
I compare this with 3.5-6 million infections from flu every year (in a country of 65M) with 7-8k deads due to complications from it (like a pneumonia). This data is from 2014, even. Yet I can assure you nobody panics when flu season comes around. Source: https://www.corriere.it/salute/speciali/2014/influenza/notizie/influenza-ogni-anno-italia-piu-7mila-morti-complicanze-55192e18-83a9-11e5-8754-dc886b8dbd7a.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

What is the main concern? Everyone falling ill at the same time, period. Panic is absolutely unjustified, and right now our main enemy is ourselves. It'll be the draconian measures that will put us in trouble, not the virus.

 

[Blind Owl]

Fingers crossed for CitienCon, as LA is not going to be a good place to be if there is a pandemic.

Hmmmmm, I hadn't thought about this.

Honoured colleagues, I would like to put things a little more in perspective by mentioning a few simple facts.
As of now, the covid19 has infected North of 500 people in Italy, which is one of the main infection areas the health organisations are focusing on. 12 deads, all of which had an already compromised health situation from causes independent from the covid virus.
I compare this with 3.5-6 million infections from flu every year (in a country of 65M) with 7-8k deads due to complications from it (like a pneumonia). This data is from 2014, even. Yet I can assure you nobody panics when flu season comes around. Source: https://www.corriere.it/salute/speciali/2014/influenza/notizie/influenza-ogni-anno-italia-piu-7mila-morti-complicanze-55192e18-83a9-11e5-8754-dc886b8dbd7a.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

What is the main concern? Everyone falling ill at the same time, period. Panic is absolutely unjustified, and right now our main enemy is ourselves. It'll be the draconian measures that will put us in trouble, not the virus.

100% this. Having lived through 41 flu seasons thus far, I'm not overly concerned. The media sure likes to make monsters out of everything.

 

[Glum]

Honoured colleagues, I would like to put things a little more in perspective by mentioning a few simple facts.
As of now, the covid19 has infected North of 500 people in Italy, which is one of the main infection areas the health organisations are focusing on. 12 deads, all of which had an already compromised health situation from causes independent from the covid virus.
I compare this with 3.5-6 million infections from flu every year (in a country of 65M) with 7-8k deads due to complications from it (like a pneumonia). This data is from 2014, even. Yet I can assure you nobody panics when flu season comes around. Source: https://www.corriere.it/salute/speciali/2014/influenza/notizie/influenza-ogni-anno-italia-piu-7mila-morti-complicanze-55192e18-83a9-11e5-8754-dc886b8dbd7a.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

What is the main concern? Everyone falling ill at the same time, period. Panic is absolutely unjustified, and right now our main enemy is ourselves. It'll be the draconian measures that will put us in trouble, not the virus.

Agreed from a gross numbers standpoint. The issue of concern is that Covid has an overall mortality rate of over 2% (60% in those with comorbidities). The overall mortality rate from the common flu is less than 0.1% annually per the CDC.

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

The following podcasts are from Chimaera of the org Imperium, and were recorded in early Feb.

These provide a perspective on the outbreak as seen from Hong Kong.

https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042%2Fwuhan-audio View: https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042/wuhan-audio/s-VelnL


https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042%2Fwuhan-audio2 View: https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042/wuhan-audio2/s-94phw

This is Chimaera’s latest podcast, updated today and from a Hong Kong perspective.

https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042%2Fwuhan-audio-3 View: https://soundcloud.com/aaron-m-27489042/wuhan-audio-3/s-P0ttT

Went to listen to these this morning and it looks like they were removed. Interested to hear them though!

Honoured colleagues, I would like to put things a little more in perspective by mentioning a few simple facts.
As of now, the covid19 has infected North of 500 people in Italy, which is one of the main infection areas the health organisations are focusing on. 12 deads, all of which had an already compromised health situation from causes independent from the covid virus.
I compare this with 3.5-6 million infections from flu every year (in a country of 65M) with 7-8k deads due to complications from it (like a pneumonia). This data is from 2014, even. Yet I can assure you nobody panics when flu season comes around. Source: https://www.corriere.it/salute/speciali/2014/influenza/notizie/influenza-ogni-anno-italia-piu-7mila-morti-complicanze-55192e18-83a9-11e5-8754-dc886b8dbd7a.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

What is the main concern? Everyone falling ill at the same time, period. Panic is absolutely unjustified, and right now our main enemy is ourselves. It'll be the draconian measures that will put us in trouble, not the virus.

While I understand what youre getting at, and a lot of people are trying to make that argument, Glum is right. Its not something to panic about in any regard, but COVID19 has a significantly higher mortality rate given just what numbers we have right now, taken from only 3 months of shaky data. The amount of people it puts into critical condition seems to be something like 20% which is very worrisome, especially when it comes to what you were mentioning about overloading the healthcare system. While I'm way more concerned about the socioeconomic impacts this is going to have, I just want to point out that "it's just the flu bro" is probably the biggest meme coming out of this right now. Anyone whos healthy is going to be just A okay it seems like. If theres no hospital beds however, even if youre healthy and young, you may not be A okay.

Hmmmmm, I hadn't thought about this.

100% this. Having lived through 41 flu seasons thus far, I'm not overly concerned. The media sure likes to make monsters out of everything.

"It's just the flu bro" ;)

 

[Montoya]

"It's just the flu bro" ;)

I had not caught the flu for about 15yrs until a few months ago.

My kid brought something back from his classroom. He got over it pretty fast, but holy shit, did it knock me out of commission for three days!

At its worst, I was in bed for the entire day and forced myself to drink a few sips of water from the bathroom tap because I knew I was probably dehydrated.

I can see how dangerous even the normal flu can be for a person with existing health conditions!

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

I had not caught the flu for about 15yrs until a few months ago.

My kid brought something back from his classroom. He got over it pretty fast, but holy shit, did it knock me out of commission for three days!

At its worst, I was in bed for the entire day and forced myself to drink a few sips of water from the bathroom tap because I knew I was probably dehydrated.

I can see how dangerous even the normal flu can be for a person with existing health conditions!

Can confirm. Caught it as a kid. Was out of commission and in absolute misery for weeks, in and out of the hospital because I also had a history of asthma. Lots of puking, lots of "what day is it" and "how long until this kills me so it can stop". It came with severe soar throat too, so at least i got a lot of milkshakes and hydrocodone infused cough syrup. Pure, miserable delirium.

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

Looks like Saudi Arabia is suspending the pilgrimage to meca for most. Thats kinda a big deal. Completely understandable though. Its millions of people all packed together. And with a bunch of people in Iran having the virus, it only makes sense.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-suspends-entry-pilgrims-over-coronavirus-154513732.html

EDIT:


Massachusetts reports historically high number of flu cases.

https://www.boston.com/news/health/2020/02/25/historically-high-flu-season-2019-2020


Irans VP has been diagnosed with the virus.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/coronavirus-iran-vice-president-masoumeh-ebtekar-test-positive-outbreak-latest-a9363181.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


EDIT2:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1233033303575449601

View: https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1233033303575449601

EDIT3:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232963162531651584

View: https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1232963162531651584

EDIT4:

Agreed from a gross numbers standpoint. The issue of concern is that Covid has an overall mortality rate of over 2% (60% in those with comorbidities). The overall mortality rate from the common flu is less than 0.1% annually per the CDC.

This Can probably explain our understanding of the mortality rate atm way better than I ever could.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/deadly-coronavirus-early-69224705?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

EDIT5:


Why is Iran's reported mortality rate for coronavirus higher than in other countries?

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-iran-s-reported-mortality-rate-coronavirus-higher-other-countries-n1142646

 

[August]

Audio is still there Jolly, forum just does weird stuff to the soundcloud link. Click the small link

 

[Bambooza]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232831756140732416

View: https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232831756140732416


This is the thing that starts to make things difficult.

it was only

I had not caught the flu for about 15yrs until a few months ago.

My kid brought something back from his classroom. He got over it pretty fast, but holy shit, did it knock me out of commission for three days!

At its worst, I was in bed for the entire day and forced myself to drink a few sips of water from the bathroom tap because I knew I was probably dehydrated.

I can see how dangerous even the normal flu can be for a person with existing health conditions!

I have a feeling you were exposed to a regional strain your body wasn't used to and this is the issue with the Covid-19 virus most of the world is not used to this strain so its going to have a larger impact then the seasonal flu. While most people will just need rest for a few days others with underlining medical conditions will have a harder go at recovery and this is were things get dicy. Given its high flu like rate of spreading it has the real potential to over tax the medical system putting those who had a higher chance of surviving at greater risk due to limited resources to help them overcome it.

Swine Flu which was not that long ago had a R0 of between 1.4 and 1.6 and a CFR of 1.5% which I was over joyed to pick up at PAX in 2009, which I have to say that knocked me down for almost a week.

Honoured colleagues, I would like to put things a little more in perspective by mentioning a few simple facts.
As of now, the covid19 has infected North of 500 people in Italy, which is one of the main infection areas the health organisations are focusing on. 12 deads, all of which had an already compromised health situation from causes independent from the covid virus.
I compare this with 3.5-6 million infections from flu every year (in a country of 65M) with 7-8k deads due to complications from it (like a pneumonia). This data is from 2014, even. Yet I can assure you nobody panics when flu season comes around. Source: https://www.corriere.it/salute/speciali/2014/influenza/notizie/influenza-ogni-anno-italia-piu-7mila-morti-complicanze-55192e18-83a9-11e5-8754-dc886b8dbd7a.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

What is the main concern? Everyone falling ill at the same time, period. Panic is absolutely unjustified, and right now our main enemy is ourselves. It'll be the draconian measures that will put us in trouble, not the virus.

You are right panic is absolutely unjustified and the main concern is the potential of lots of indiviguals falling ill at the same time expecialy if the virus is truly asystematic.

Studies profile lung changes in asymptomatic COVID-19, viral loads in patient samples

www.cidrap.umn.edu

When we take the typical flu season with a R0 of 1.6% and a CFR of 0.1% you end up with the 7-8k dead out of 45 million. The question comes in with a higher R0 (faster spread) and CFR number you get 120k dead instead of 6k over a shorter time period.

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

Audio is still there Jolly, forum just does weird stuff to the soundcloud link. Click the small link

Got it, thanks bud.

 

[Montoya]

http://imgur.com/a/8AycuDb

View: https://imgur.com/gallery/8AycuDb

 

[Sirus7264]

Aaaaaand there goes the stock market hope you guys are paying attention to your investments cause alot of business is going to be way down.

What to Invest In During a Recession | The Motley Fool

Investing during a recession can offer a great opportunity to build wealth under certain circumstances. But it may not be the right move for everyone.

www.fool.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1232963162531651584

View: https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1232963162531651584

Thanks Jolly i hadn't heard this yet i hope my kid's school isn't going to shut down or he might be finding his way to my work until this blows over... Masks here have been sold out and hand sanitizer is starting to disappear from shelves.(Lucky for me i bought both wayyyy before this whole thing) It wont be long until i get it it really feels like its inevitable.

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

Aaaaaand there goes the stock market hope you guys are paying attention to your investments cause alot of business is going to be way down.

What to Invest In During a Recession | The Motley Fool

Investing during a recession can offer a great opportunity to build wealth under certain circumstances. But it may not be the right move for everyone.

www.fool.com

Thanks Jolly i hadn't heard this yet i hope my kid's school isn't going to shut down or he might be finding his way to my work until this blows over... Masks here have been sold out and hand sanitizer is starting to disappear from shelves.(Lucky for me i bought both wayyyy before this whole thing) It wont be long until i get it it really feels like its inevitable.

NP man. I take it you live in Anime land? :P If you have any interesting news please share it. The more the better.

And @Montoya , you're financially savvy, you got any opinions on whats happening with the markets? We looking at a full depression, just a recession, or will things level out and jump back up.

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1233115107078680580

View: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1233115107078680580


Heres the Wiki To the DPA they are talking about enacting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act






.