Economy size guessing (theorycrafting)

[Lordgarrett99]

Numbers? Oh boy...
Anyways, let's get on!

i was curious the possible size of the economy in star citizen apon launch, i decided to guess off of IRL values
as per any numbers related idea i did a spreadsheet and some rough calculations, any actual economists are encouraged to chime in :D

Base Value for total liquid in fluctuation:
$22,750,000,000 UEC
I'm using the total backers rounded to 4,550,00, then multiplying by 5000 for the average UEC starting amount ($122 USD package, I.E Cutlass black, contains this much on start)

Base Value for Liquid total Yearly Increase:
2.99%
average GDP yearly increase for the USA from 1961 to 2023.
i considered using the .12% increase in average of this number, but the result was terrifying is all ill say.

Start of Year/End Year for calculation:
2529 start (UEC start date) to 2969 end (current known universe time via r_displayinfo_1 in game command)

THE CALCULATION RESULT:

**WARNING: THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE MY OWN AND NOT CIG's, TAKE WHAT YOU SEE WITH A LARGE GRAIN OF SALT**
2529 - $22,750,000,000.00
2530 - $27,148,869,495.22 with a YOY* Change of $788,184,481.90
2550 - $42,235,498,264.42 with a YOY Change of $1,226,178,656.28
2600 - $184,259,771,948.75 with a YOY Change of $5,349,419,537.11
2650 - $803,865,585,911.87 with a YOY Change of $23,337,781,356.21
2700 - $3,507,004,667,264.88 with a YOY Change of $101,815,166,085.27
2800 - $66,748,599,578,417.60 with a YOY Change of $1,937,841,661,709.61
2900 - $1,270,421,903,702,400.00 with a YOY Change of $36,882,818,643,267.80
2969 - $9,700,787,359,185,050.00 with a YOY Change of $281,632,723,603,878.00

YOY = Year over Year

conclusion:
yes these numbers are pure guessing and theory crafting, but i did it to see the possible totals for the UEES Economy and the sheer size of economy we will deal with on launch
responses welcome and encouraged, any requests for my original spreadsheet will be granted!

 

[BUTUZ]

Hyperinflation is an issue I saw early on which is why i sxtoped myself from bought uec with real money as 100 quids worth of uec 5 years ago is already worth like 20 quid now and it will only get worse when the economy is fleshed out. A ship is far more valuable.

 

[Ayeteeone]

I was prepared to completely ignore this topic, but.. you offered a genuine SWAG to back up the idea. Very cool!

As to what or how this will function, given that game time runs 10x faster than real life, I'm sure Tony Z has it figured in the math for the Quantum backend. And while there may be some real money inflation/deflation/speculation/rolled-up-and-burned, the game will have a calibration point (like tritium in EvE online and probably considerably more sophisticated). WoW and EvE both made some crucial errors in allowing the market economy to be run by players, which led to rampant inflation in both games to the point a new player couldn't participate.

The bigger question might be, 'does it matter?' Not all of that liquidity will be functional in game at the same time, and as one of the underlying tenets is 'to catch them all!' then Quantum's management of the economy will need to be robust enough to handle lots and lots and lots of ships/uec/wealth. Also, we haven't begun to see the money sinks yet - taxes, landing fees, hangar fees, repair fees, non-fixed fuel costs, crafting costs, contract fees, bribes, cargo handler fees, guild fees, oxygen fees, and food beyond a damn burrito. If you haven't heard already, some of the 'mission fees' being brought into 3.19 are eye-watering...

And if what CR has said about the price of the capital and larger ships is true, the in-game prices and costs of operating those are going to skyrocket. I'm already stockpiling earplugs for the wailing that will take place :)

There is also the idea that players are only 10% of the population. If that is true, then it stands to reason that while we will have an outsized impact on the economy for our population, it can and should be balanced by the 90%. An early example is the sell/buy limits placed on goods trading. X amount per Y minutes and no more is a great gamemaster tool for limiting the impact of wealth.

I've rambled enough; let me leave yo with the thought that the existing player base is a fraction of what they are going for, a mere sliver compared to other mainstream games. Take a drink, then calculate what the numbers might look like with a player base of 10 to 20 million and up.

 

[Lordgarrett99]

I was prepared to completely ignore this topic, but.. you offered a genuine SWAG to back up the idea. Very cool!

As to what or how this will function, given that game time runs 10x faster than real life, I'm sure Tony Z has it figured in the math for the Quantum backend. And while there may be some real money inflation/deflation/speculation/rolled-up-and-burned, the game will have a calibration point (like tritium in EvE online and probably considerably more sophisticated). WoW and EvE both made some crucial errors in allowing the market economy to be run by players, which led to rampant inflation in both games to the point a new player couldn't participate.

The bigger question might be, 'does it matter?' Not all of that liquidity will be functional in game at the same time, and as one of the underlying tenets is 'to catch them all!' then Quantum's management of the economy will need to be robust enough to handle lots and lots and lots of ships/uec/wealth. Also, we haven't begun to see the money sinks yet - taxes, landing fees, hangar fees, repair fees, non-fixed fuel costs, crafting costs, contract fees, bribes, cargo handler fees, guild fees, oxygen fees, and food beyond a damn burrito. If you haven't heard already, some of the 'mission fees' being brought into 3.19 are eye-watering...

And if what CR has said about the price of the capital and larger ships is true, the in-game prices and costs of operating those are going to skyrocket. I'm already stockpiling earplugs for the wailing that will take place :)

There is also the idea that players are only 10% of the population. If that is true, then it stands to reason that while we will have an outsized impact on the economy for our population, it can and should be balanced by the 90%. An early example is the sell/buy limits placed on goods trading. X amount per Y minutes and no more is a great gamemaster tool for limiting the impact of wealth.

I've rambled enough; let me leave yo with the thought that the existing player base is a fraction of what they are going for, a mere sliver compared to other mainstream games. Take a drink, then calculate what the numbers might look like with a player base of 10 to 20 million and up.

alot of stuff to definitely think about, im too tired to respond in depth at this time (maybe later) but your points are valid and at the same time important to account for :)