Theory - Is SC planned for 2022-2023?

[vahadar]

I have this crazy theory

When you look at ship insurance the past years, they were generally increased by one year, counting from 2012, for each anniversary sales.

But since last year (IAE 2949) CIG stated that all anniversary sales will have now a fixed 10 years insurance.

IAE 2949 - Insurance Information - Star Citizen Spectrum

The Intergalactic Aerospace Expo (IAE) allows all players to see some of the verse’s biggest, best, and most iconic ships up close. Different manufacturers take over the hall each day, so keep...

robertsspaceindustries.com

Considering they also did that for Invictus Launch Week (ILW 2950) last month (10 years), it is clear they will probably never go BEYOND 10 years for insurance for any event, which means that if they release SC in 2023 or after, we will still have 10 years insurance regardless.

Now, i dont believe they will do a fixed 10 years after 2022, people will not buy that especially if the game is out in like 5 years after in 2027^^, so my guess is that the game is vaguely planned to be released by 2022-2023, most probably for persistent beta.

Thoughts?

 

[Lorddarthvik]

While I don't think that they were planning ahead with the insurance times, your estimate seems plausible. If we get pyro (wormhole mechanism) at the end of the year (seems highly unlikely at this point), then we get salvage, repairs, medical gameplay and the rest in a basic working state during the year and after, we may indeed see a beta launch by the end of 2022. It was stated in last years CitCon what would be required for a beta launch, and there's not much else left I think.

 

[BUTUZ]

Have you seen CIGs inability to manage project creep? We'll be lucky to get out of alpha by 2025 at this rate. Maybe game launch by 2030?

 

[Lorddarthvik]

Have you seen CIGs inability to manage project creep? We'll be lucky to get out of alpha by 2025 at this rate. Maybe game launch by 2030?

Hahaha, sadly true. One can dream though...

 

[Radegast74]

Define "finished"...I don't think it will be released in any form until after shortly after SQ42 (all 3 Chapters!) are done...and then, not all the worlds will be finished....I'm guessing a beta around 2024 or so, limited release around 2025-6, and then remaining features will be implemented by 2027-8.

 

[Sky Captain]

The answer is in the bottom of a bottle of beer. Or three.

 

[vahadar]

Thats just a thought i had :) Wondering why they suddenly decided to go 10 years instead of the 7 years last IAE and for Invictus. Again just a theory ;)

 

[BUTUZ]

The answer is in the bottom of a bottle of beer. Or three.

Then I shall try to find it tonight!!!

 

[AntiSqueaker]

I think at this point 2022 is being optimistic. CIG has shown time and time and time again that they are continually fucking abysmal with their guesses for the roadmap and progress.


Example: take a look at the November 2019 roadmap. Citizencon hype! Q2 2020 will have the Vulture and Salvage v1!

Then about 2 weeks later (after the big sale where I know a lot of people got Vultures/Reclaimers because it would be Coming Soon!) it's completely gone, never to return.

They are just now starting to CONCEPT Salvage, and it's not even on the roadmap for the remainder of the year.


Rinse and Repeat for every major mechanic. The only thing CIG has out on time is ship sales.

SQ42 is still supposed to be in Beta in a few weeks lmao.

 

[vahadar]

Then about 2 weeks later (after the big sale where I know a lot of people got Vultures/Reclaimers because it would be Coming Soon!) it's completely gone, never to return.

They are just now starting to CONCEPT Salvage, and it's not even on the roadmap for the remainder of the year.

Well true, Salvage was supposed to be with 4.0 this year before being pushed back to oblivion again. Next year TM ;)

 

[Lorddarthvik]

Yeah, thinking back about what was wiped from the roadmap in last couple of quarters, it actually feels like we are standing still. All the important bits (game mechanics like salvage, medic, repair, bounty hunting, working persistent mission chains, persistence of location, working AI, working NPCs, AI driven traffic, any sort of economy...) got pushed to "oh it will be back on the roadmap when we feel like it!". Yeah, they keep pushing assets like ships, cos they have to for money, and little meaningless stuff like guns and some nice visual updates, but not much else. They showed Pyro like it was ready to be released in a few months, and it's doubtful we will see it by the end of the year. It still takes fucking ages to just get a new planet done, let alone a 10 new systems or something meaningful like that.
All I can think of that they added since, forever really, is the survival elements, and the very broken prison/crime system. Everything else is basically the same. New planet, sure I really do love new cabbage, it's beautiful, but utterly useless apart from being another place to look at, and didn't bring anything new to do...
Shit, I'm getting disappointed in SC again. Gonna grab a beer instead...

I'm retracting my original bid of 2022-23 and changing it to 25 at best. It was nice hoping for it, but reality is a cruel mistress.

 

[Aramsolari]

I anticipate that I'll be in this state when the game finally goes live for me to play.

 

[Michael]

i always expected 2022 for PU beta and i stick to that

also it will be delayed ^^