UPDATE
So I spoke with the sales manager at the hotel and she basically said all we need are 5 rooms booked on Friday and Saturday to get the group rate and the latest we can book is Sept 15. So it doesn't matter when you show up or leave as long as we have those two nights covered.
As far as the air BNB is concerned I don't think that particular one will be around but we could always find another one. I'm going to edit the poll to see if we're leaning more towards the hotel or house.
Finally, I heard back from concierge. They basically don't know when tickets are going to go on sale and as far as the tour is concerned, it "would be a stretch and unlikely" but to check back once tickets go on sale to find out for sure so don't get your hopes up kids.