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It's all about acting quickly...exponential growth is a bitch; by denying and not doing anything the US govt leadership basically screwed the country. Once you found out about it/it was first detected in your country you had 30 days to be able to clamp down on it and nip it in the bud; if you...

ditto, not a trained virologist, but our hospital system is looking at conducting antibody tests. It is exactly as you said, the body forms IgG antibodies about 14 days or so after initial exposure, which are detectable with a high rate of accuracy (the IgM tests are much less accurate, since it...

If they were exposed, they should have developed antibodies. There are antibody testst currently being developed, and some are actually being deployed, with various rates of false positives / false negatives. So, they could go out and get tested right now, I'm not sure how easily available they...

Are you saying it is ok to marginalize "Flat-Earthers"? I'm ok with that! lol

In other parts of the world, they have much stricter driving requirements...the US is something of a joke in comparison... Anyway, re: freedom of speech, here is the relevant XKCD comic: https://xkcd.com/1357/

Because it was staged? Nobody knowledgeable and/or reputable is saying this is anything like the normal flu.

The problem is, unless they are collecting data and studying the problem scientifically, it really is just a bunch of anecdotal info. Being licensed as a doctor just means you are minimally competent to practice medicine. Unfortunately, it is hands-off after that, and you had better do your due...

A great article (by a microbiologist) reviewing the current state of vaccine development: https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/the-ars-covid-19-vaccine-primer-100-plus-in-the-works-8-in-clinical-trials/

...and the best way to do this is to NOT go by official COVID-19 posted death figures, but to instead look at the number of *EXCESS* deaths reported. The issue is that the "official" COVID-19 death counts have all the same problems of the # of cases reported, i.e., too little testing leads to a...

This bit: If they went ahead only to have to cancel later on...what a disaster that would be, for the attendees... Cancelling, while sucky, was the best call...

Hmmm, I wasn't expecting any big increase in Georgia's cases for another week or so...look at this:

The answer to "could weekly averages be more nice?" is...maybe. Everybody started tracking daily counts because, at first, the numbers changed so much (increased so much) on a daily basis, and decision-makers needed information about how fast the spread was. Two-three months into this now...

My thought --> if COVID-19 was a baseball game, we're about in the 5th inning...it's a little too early to say the score now is the final score, or to even call the game.

What about Sweden? Here is their latest data: Contrast that with Norway: ...or Denmark: Germany is actually the *GOLD* standard in the West:

Great article about Germany's (and probably the world's) leading coronavirus expert that also gives details about the origins of the coronavirus and COVID-19: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6490/462 Personally, *this* is my favorite Zelda rap video: View...

Ok, I have the data up by country: https://radegast74.shinyapps.io/InternationalTrendsCovid19/ Thanks! It definitely helps "smooth" over (ha ha) the data entry weirdness we see, over the weekends and other issues... Like, check out Georgia (below)...on April 12, they reported *fewer* total...

Since I was sick and tired of looking at states report of new cases, and trying to divine whether the number was increasing or decreasing (esp. with data entry being spotty on the weekends) I took the NYTimes data and added a trend line (7-day centered moving average, so for example, Wed would...

a meme from another era https://gfycat.com/angelicmeekamazontreeboa

There may very well be something like that, now that you mention it (but aren't people also close at work?). If you want to look at a "trend" for something in data like that, where there are predictable peaks and valleys, you would want to remove the "seasonality" (in this case...

Based on Louisiana, Mardi Gras, and how long it took for the cases to pile up, I'd say you'd want to give it at least 2 weeks, and preferably 3 weeks. Somebody catches the disease, they can have it 5-7 days before feeling any symptoms, and then they need another 5-7 days before they either get...