Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Jolly_Green_Giant

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Talking to my aunt, she goes to Walgreens / CVS a lot and asked them why they had such long lines for the covid tests. Normally you should get an appointment, but they told her they're all the people who didn't make one. As to why they needed to get tested in the first place, she was told most of them need it for their jobs. I guess companies around here are requiring negative tests, not sure if that's for just the unvaccinated or what.
 

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Talking to my aunt, she goes to Walgreens / CVS a lot and asked them why they had such long lines for the covid tests. Normally you should get an appointment, but they told her they're all the people who didn't make one. As to why they needed to get tested in the first place, she was told most of them need it for their jobs. I guess companies around here are requiring negative tests, not sure if that's for just the unvaccinated or what.
Going on here in Texas too. Many employers are requiring either proof of vaccination, or weekly testing. It's for liability reasons as much as anything else.
 

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COVID Corner Hyper Holiday Remix - Some reports from some news outlets* from today, Friday 31th of December:
*claims made by headlines or articles are those of the outlets and have not been independently verified, or in some cases even read, by myself.

- World: Global Confirmed 287,679,407 Global Deaths 5,434,480

- WHO: WHO chief optimistic about beating Covid in 2022

- UK: Booster 88% effective against Omicron illness

- UK: New anti-Covid pill Plaxlovid approved by UK regulator


Chamber of Horrors (Click the blur to see the reports)

- US: U.S. Confirmed 54,479,594

- UK: 1 in 25 people in England had Covid last week

- UK: Record number of 'pings' sent via NHS Covid app

- UK: Scots urged to stay at home for Hogmanay

- UK: Number of NHS hospital staff in England off with Covid doubles in a month

- India: India third wave looms as Covid cases spike

- Italy: Italy reports record 144,243 new cases on Friday

- Ireland: Ireland becomes latest EU country to cut isolation period

- Omicron: Nervtag’s Prof Openshaw: Omicron so infectious 'almost needs just a whiff of infected breath and you could get infected'
 
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Aramsolari

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I saw a mile and a half long line of cars on the shoulder of a local highway today. All people in line to get tested.
Yeah it's getting to that point here as well. The health authorities have gotten to that point where they're telling folks NOT to go for PCR testing unless they're absolutely hacking out a lung.

We've been told to either go for rapid testing and/or self isolate if you're showing mild symptoms.

I've resigned to the fact that I'll get it sooner or later since my wife is going back to the Covid Ward. It's well.....scything through her colleagues right now.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Corner Hyper Holiday Remix - Some reports from some news outlets* from today, Saturday 1st of January 2022:
*claims made by headlines or articles are those of the outlets and have not been independently verified, or in some cases even read, by myself.

- World: Global Confirmed 288,996,583 Global Deaths 5,439,422

- UAE: UAE citizens to need booster jab to travel abroad

- UK: OBE for Covid-19 research scientist

- US: Incoming New York mayor calls for defiance against Covid


Chamber of Horrors (Click the blur to see the reports)

- UK: Next few days crucial for NHS, says health boss

- Antarctic: Antarctic station hit by Covid-19 outbreak

- UK: Hospitals may have to reintroduce visitor bans, NHS chief says

- US: US experts question whether counting cases is still the right approach

- France: Mask wearing on public transport in France extended

- UK: England reports record level of new Covid cases

- World: Covid-19 dampens new year celebrations around the world

- Chaina: China ends 2021 with worst Covid week since taming original epidemic
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Corner - Some reports from some news outlets* from today, Sunday 2nd of January 2022:
*claims made by headlines or articles are those of the outlets and have not been independently verified, or in some cases even read, by myself.

- World: Global Confirmed 289,815,621 Global Deaths 5,442,846

- UK: Government warns workplaces to plan for absences of up to 25%

- UK: Covid test centre damaged in fire raising attack

- Israel: Israel may hit herd immunity but at a price - adviser

- Israel: Israel to offer fourth dose of Covid-19 vaccine for the over-60s and medical staff

- US: Fauci agrees hospitalization rate a better guide to Omicron than cases

- France: France reports record seven-day average for new Covid cases

- Saudi Arabia:
New infections in Saudi Arabia at highest level since August
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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Yep, and there is a double-whammy too: to explain with imaginary numbers and Variants for anyone still not quite seeing how hospitals are going to get hit twice by Omicron:

Hospitals capacity for the nation 'Zed' is, for the sake of the example, 10.

Imaginary 'Pie' variant has a serious illness factor of 5 in every 100 infected but because of it's relatively lower transmission rate it only causes 150 infections at any one time = 7.5 people in hospital at any one time, so within capacity and the hospitals copes.

Imaginary 'Dessert' variant has a serious illness factor of 1 in every 100 infected but due to its higher transmission rate causes 1,200 infections at any one time = 12 people in hospital at any one time, exceeding capacity and hospitals fail to cope.

But here is the serous part:

The capacity of the hospital is dependent on staff to tend to the sick, staff who are vulnerable to sickness themselves. If the staff are put out of action by 'Pie' variant capacity may have been lowered from 10 to only 8, still coping... but barely with no play in the system for any other issues, and we have seen this IRL with operations etc being cancelled. But 'Dessert' variant by being more infectious would effect the staff even harder, either by short term illness or long term or permanent serous illness so not only does the number of incoming sick exceed the original capacity, it bringing the capacity of the hospitals down even further from its original 10 to just 5. So technically 'Dessert' exceeds capacity by 20%, but in reality it exceeds capacity by over 50% because it hits capacity too. The Nation of Zed is in a real crisis at this point and they might not even know it yet.

So thinking about 'Pie' and 'Dessert' not only does Omicron have the potential to bring in a higher net value of seriously ill individuals due to an exponentially higher number of infections all in one go, it will be doing it at the same time that the capacity of the hospitals themselves will be severely reduced due to the staff themselves being infected. The staff we need to tend to the sick are in the perfect place to be exposed to it and become sick themselves.



All a nation can do at this point is stall the spread with lockdowns etc which buys the hospitals time for their staff to be infected, loose capacity and then recover capacity as the they get better and come back online hopefully without too many lost long term/permanently to serious illness. The lower the infections now, the more capacity can be bought back into the hospitals as staff recover. The kicker: I know someone working for the health service who caught the original variant in March 2020 who is still getting Long COVID symptoms. Even when staff are back, they are not guaranteed to be at 100% capacity even long term.

The hospital capacity cannot be increased without more staff, beds and ventilators which is very hard to do. New tearments ma come along which might ease death rates but especially with staff and training which takes years, it's hard to get more of them to tend to the sick... so protecting the capacity you have is the first step in avoiding being overwhelmed but this far into the pandemic it may be a war of attrition.
The reduction in Hospital capacity starts to hit home in the UK with the NHS facing staffing crisis, as 10% (50,000) off sick on New Years Eve.

"Hospitals across Lincolnshire last night declared a “critical incident” over “extreme and unprecedented” staff shortages.The United Lincolnshire Hospital Trust said it is “unable to maintain safe staffing levels” leading to “compromised care” across its sites."

Guess which county I live in? This isn't just COVID care, it's all care including including
Stroke and Cardiac. I'd best not have a health issue any time soon, eh?

I can't make assumptions and no I don't have a crystal ball so of course can't tell for sure, but it feels like it's already too late to be able to stave off wider health system collapse now (I'd say it's already happened in Lincolnshire). Unless Omicron infection numbers don't rise high enough to send enough people to hospital it feels like we've already passed the point where we'd have been able to keep a lid on transmission to be able to keep enough staff in the hospitals to be able to cope with the number of incoming seriously ill.

It's basically what happened in the first wave when the UK had a clear 2 weeks to put a lid on the original variant and sat there saying "We'll act when the time is right". News reports suggest the Prime Minister is still waiting for data to come through from Christmas gatherings. In the meantime New Year happened. Just feels like its been left too late again.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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The reduction in Hospital capacity starts to hit home in the UK with the NHS facing staffing crisis, as 10% (50,000) off sick on New Years Eve.

"Hospitals across Lincolnshire last night declared a “critical incident” over “extreme and unprecedented” staff shortages.The United Lincolnshire Hospital Trust said it is “unable to maintain safe staffing levels” leading to “compromised care” across its sites."

Guess which county I live in? This isn't just COVID care, it's all care including including
Stroke and Cardiac. I'd best not have a health issue any time soon, eh?

I can't make assumptions and no I don't have a crystal ball so of course can't tell for sure, but it feels like it's already too late to be able to stave off wider health system collapse now (I'd say it's already happened in Lincolnshire). Unless Omicron infection numbers don't rise high enough to send enough people to hospital it feels like we've already passed the point where we'd have been able to keep a lid on transmission to be able to keep enough staff in the hospitals to be able to cope with the number of incoming seriously ill.

It's basically what happened in the first wave when the UK had a clear 2 weeks to put a lid on the original variant and sat there saying "We'll act when the time is right". News reports suggest the Prime Minister is still waiting for data to come through from Christmas gatherings. In the meantime New Year happened. Just feels like its been left too late again.
More on this story from the BBC;


"Helen Monday, a nurse at the trust, said hospitals were busy but were "not being inundated with Covid-positive patients"."

If correct and additional COVID inpatents have not put that much additional strain on the system, its interesting to see even without a drastic uptick in hospitalisations Omicron has managed to pull staffing down to unmanageable levels for the otherwise expected winter loads of other illnesses.

Will be interesting to see how this pans out.
 

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Just caught the backend of Boris breifing today

this meme comes to mind as he says we're doing ok with what we have right now.

I didn't catch it but I've put forward my angle on this already with my analogy of Country Zed on Dec 20th... only just ran ahead of current events with that one, I hope I'm wrong but right now it doesn't feel like it...

I saw a clip of Mr. Johnson earlier which was apparently from yesterday - has he had a haircut?
 
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PeppaPigKilla

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I didn't catch it but I've put forward my angle on this already, only just ran ahead of current events with that one... I hope I'm wrong but right now it doesn't feel like it...

I saw a clip of Mr. Johnson earlier which was apparently from yesterday - has he had a haircut?
indeed looks like he has, made him look older and sicker
 
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