Market Manipulation

[Inzlinger]

So as we have the Spreadsheet Squadron up (and kinda running) id like to propose something for all those mathematicians out there:
If the Ingame Economy is going to be completely player driven there are going to be flaws and exploits.

The Easiest things i can think of the top of my head, abusing our economical power:
1. Searching a new Planet get a NPC company to contract its development/Mining/Whatever.
OR 1.just take a random small company that isnt traded that much
2. get all the org mnembers to buy
3. watch the prices explode due to huge demand
4. sell.
5. ...
6. profit
-> Classical Manipulation of small Stocks

1. going Short (for the non-economy ppl: betting that prices are going to drop) on a certian Market/Planet/Company
2. then randomly some Javelins apear and block all traffic to that planet - ofc we have nothing to do with it.
3. watch prices drop
5. Leave if UEE gets too angry and sends military
6. ...
7. profit

Insider trading in General of course: say you own a huge cargo ship and have a contract that will really influence the company you are working for, you tell your mates to buy/go short and complete/intentionally fail the contract or dont repay depts due -> profit (ILLEGAL IRL DONT TRY THIS AT HOME)

Depending on how complex the stock market is going to be: Looking at peak times in trading.
Lets just imagine the Europeans have the stronger economy ingame. Naturally the amount of shares traded will peak at the evening of UTC. That means trading done in this time will have less effect on the price of the shares youre going to manipulate.
Plan:
1. buy a big chunk at around 8 UTC on a saturday Prices increse marginally
2. sell those piece-a-piece in times of low traffic (Weekday nights in UTC in this model) -> huge impact, prices drop
3. repeat 1/2 at leisure
4. Buy the largest chunk and wait a few days/weeks for share price to recover
5. ...
6. profit
OFC this works in reverse, pushing prices and then watching them drop.

We are going to be filthy rich!

 

[Captain Easy]

"Who ever has the cash, has the control"

I for one am glad we will be brothers in arms.

 

[maynard]

Holy walls of text, Batman!

First off, the economy will not be completely player driven. Shortages will be met by NPCs, who will then generate missions for players to supply materials, transport, etc. We have had no word as to whether NPCs will back away from markets where demand is being fully met by players. But it sounds like withholding goods from the market to raise prices will be met by NPCs moving in to ease shortages. There will be some price swings, but not big as a completely free market would have.

There will be a market for goods and services, but not a stock market. So, no pump and dump action, no shorting, no timing plays possible.

What Spreadsheet Squardon will be able to do is organize production and transport within the org to maximize efficiency. Think, "Miners, we need more strontium and less molybdenum!" or, "Bring your blueprints to our new manufacturing hub at Planet X."

 

[Macabre Poetry]

Holy walls of text, Batman!

First off, the economy will not be completely player driven. Shortages will be met by NPCs, who will then generate missions for players to supply materials, transport, etc. We have had no word as to whether NPCs will back away from markets where demand is being fully met by players. But it sounds like withholding goods from the market to raise prices will be met by NPCs moving in to ease shortages. There will be some price swings, but not big as a completely free market would have.

There will be a market for goods and services, but not a stock market. So, no pump and dump action, no shorting, no timing plays possible.

What Spreadsheet Squardon will be able to do is organize production and transport within the org to maximize efficiency. Think, "Miners, we need more strontium and less molybdenum!" or, "Bring your blueprints to our new manufacturing hub at Planet X."

Optimization models, given API, should be very easy to write and utilize. One thing we do know is that the market is going to be algo based, so if we are smart enough, predictive models can be very, very close to perfect. That's a very difficult thing to do! However, CR has definitely stated that players will not be able to completely dominate an economy. I would explain it like that even if everyone decided to sell short on a product or something, the game itself should theoretically adapt itself, lowering production of the product and thus increasing the cost to a stabilized price. It would be cool if we can have that level of market action, but I think it is unlikely. I think Maynard is completely right when SS's focus will be on internal supply-demand with the possibility of understanding transit time and region prices to come up with the highest margin economic activity, but I highly doubt we will be able to engage in anything like severe price manipulation. BUT, we will try!

 

[Captain Easy]

I think Maynard is completely right when SS's focus will be on internal supply-demand with the possibility of understanding transit time and region prices to come up with the highest margin economic activity, but I highly doubt we will be able to engage in anything like severe price manipulation

WHaaaaaaat!!!! Hey I had a system going here.

 

[Macabre Poetry]

Poor Ed was 200% levered on FNMA late 2008

 

[maynard]

I don't think SS's prime directive will be making money, it will be making ships and modules at advantageous prices for members to blow up

 

[Shar Treuse]

The impression I get is that Chris intends to minimize the ability of players to manipulate the market. Whether or not he succeeds at this remains to be seen. I know I'll be very disappointed if SC turns into EVE.

 

[CrashMan054]

The impression I get is that Chris intends to minimize the ability of players to manipulate the market. Whether or not he succeeds at this remains to be seen. I know I'll be very disappointed if SC turns into EVE.

CIG has already said that they won't let players control the economy, and that they will ban anyone who manages to circumvent their prevention and do so.

 

[Flashwit]

I don't remember the exact words they used, but the economy will be at most 10-15% driven by players. We're not going to be able to influence it much at all.

 

[Macabre Poetry]

I don't remember the exact words they used, but the economy will be at most 10-15% driven by players. We're not going to be able to influence it much at all.

What we will be able to do is find the optimal trade routes faster than everyone else, then profit

 

[Inzlinger]

Well i like the idea of sitting in my chair doing nothing and earning money :(
soooo there is going to be a ingame market between players? Resources'n'stuff? (cant belive this isn't going to happen)
Seems like an easy thing to mess up if we invest enough.
Or we mess with the mission creating system by requesting new spaceships and having a buddy with a shitload(hull-c-load) of finest steel ready at hand.
Maybe theres even a way to instantly resell a factory new ship for factory new value? Like a "missclick i didn't want it anyways" button? Even better if there is a fast deliverance bonus. I don't think this will cancel our friends mission if you cancel on delivery (obviously already completed).
Or sell to other players for 1% off, a mission should earn you more than 1%. (Hopefully)
Or we turn each other in, depending on the value you earn/the punishment for yaught players (offtopic: anybody remembers "the good, the bad and the ugly?" awsum movie).
In the end all depends on the design.
Hopefully my mere 300i wont slow me down so much so i can start going into the areas where you only say its 14*10^2347890738960374859 credits (and ofc loose it all on booze and start over again)

 

[Macabre Poetry]

Well i like the idea of sitting in my chair doing nothing and earning money :(
soooo there is going to be a ingame market between players? Resources'n'stuff? (cant belive this isn't going to happen)
Seems like an easy thing to mess up if we invest enough.
Or we mess with the mission creating system by requesting new spaceships and having a buddy with a shitload(hull-c-load) of finest steel ready at hand.
Maybe theres even a way to instantly resell a factory new ship for factory new value? Like a "missclick i didn't want it anyways" button? Even better if there is a fast deliverance bonus. I don't think this will cancel our friends mission if you cancel on delivery (obviously already completed).
Or sell to other players for 1% off, a mission should earn you more than 1%. (Hopefully)
Or we turn each other in, depending on the value you earn/the punishment for yaught players (offtopic: anybody remembers "the good, the bad and the ugly?" awsum movie).
In the end all depends on the design.
Hopefully my mere 300i wont slow me down so much so i can start going into the areas where you only say its 14*10^2347890738960374859 credits (and ofc loose it all on booze and start over again)

There's definitely going to be a secondary player market. I actually wouldn't be surprised if there is some measure of Org to Org business/trading as well.

 

[Shar Treuse]

What we will be able to do is find the optimal trade routes faster than everyone else, then profit

Now that I can get behind. I am just disappointed I can't be Ferengi.


I am definitely going to be as deep into the economy as I can get, from resource gathering to finished product selling, transportation and other services, but I am glad there won't be an option for players to completely dominate parts of the economy. Making deals is one thing, the t2 cargohold expander fiasco and other situations that occurred in EVE Online are a complete other ballgame, and one I conspicuously chose to abandon many years ago.

 

[Macabre Poetry]

Now that I can get behind. I am just disappointed I can't be Ferengi.


I am definitely going to be as deep into the economy as I can get, from resource gathering to finished product selling, transportation and other services, but I am glad there won't be an option for players to completely dominate parts of the economy. Making deals is one thing, the t2 cargohold expander fiasco and other situations that occurred in EVE Online are a complete other ballgame, and one I conspicuously chose to abandon many years ago.

Perhaps we'll be able to control stations and jump points that cut travel time and saves fuel costs etc.

 

[CrashMan054]

Perhaps we'll be able to control stations and jump points that cut travel time and saves fuel costs etc.

CIG has said that you'll be able to control stations to refuel and repair, IDK about jump points.

 

[Macabre Poetry]

CIG has said that you'll be able to control stations to refuel and repair, IDK about jump points.

Well if we park a Bengal by one...

 

[Shar Treuse]

I would definitely be glad to have control over a repair and refuelling station, somewhere out where there isn't any other station or inhabited planet. Definitely something you want a whole org involved with though.

 

[ghost53574]