Space is BIG , population density discussion.

[Photonz_SC]

! This is all napkin based math theory and speculation but it does give some perspective !

How populated is space going to be ? So right now we have roughly 2.5 million backers , let's say down the road we have 15 million players after retail launch. (At its peak in October 2010 World of Warcraft had 12 million players ) http://www.zo.utexas.edu/courses/Thoc/land.html So lets say an earth sized planet has 100,000,000 sqr km of usable surface (based on roughly 50% not usable due to terrain)

Let's say every player gets 5 land deeds of 8km x 8km (64 sqr km ) 320km x 15 million players is about 5 billion sqr km . 5 billion divided by 100 million is 50 earth sized planets

About 50 Earth sized planets worth of player populated surface area . This is so tiny given the 100 planned systems map size and surface area of planets, moons, and asteroids planned for SC , depending on NPC and player density. Even with 500% more NPCS than players , that is just 250 surface populated planets .

I also believe my estimate of each player having 5 x 8k deeds is very high , it will more likely be 2 deeds or 128 sqr km or even less .

This gives realistically roughly 15 earth sized planets worth of surface area that would be populated by players not counting NPC's. It would almost need to be 1000% NPC's , 150 million AI , to make it somewhat busy with a 30 to 50% population density per system and I don't see that happening , but depends on server hardware and code.

Space is big.

 

[Chip Hazzard]

And that's not taking in account the people who will live out in space the majority of the time!

 

[Montoya]

The math is fine, but the premise is wrong.

Let's say every player gets 5 land deeds of 8km x 8km (64 sqr km ) 320km x 15 million players is about 5 billion sqr km .

Why would every single player get a land plot?

I personally have no interest in land plots, but if did need some sort of personal homebase, I would rather have a secret asteroid base!

 

[Black Sunder]

AI whether seen or unseen is supposed to be a 9-1 AI to player ratio.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Players are going to be 10% of the population of the 'Verse.

So if we end up with 3 million regular players there will be 30 million total population in the Verse including NPC's. The largest city on earth right now is a Municipality in China called Chongqing, with... 30 Million population. It is only 31,816 square km.

Looking at places like ArcCorp, It most likely could house that at a magnitude of 10.

I doubt most NPC's will be able to afford a land-claim. I doubt most players will be able to defend more than one claim. And many players, like me, won't be wanting to be tied down to a single patch of dirt on some mudball. 100 systems to explore, my ship is going to be my home.

 

[Montoya]

my ship is going to be my home.

Speaking of.. the Corsair is one of those ships I would consider!

 

[Chip Hazzard]

Speaking of.. the Corsair is one of those ships I would consider!

It's one of my favourite looking ships so far. And the fact it has a proper living area is cool!

 

[Esctasy]

We aren't going to get 100 systems on launch. More like under 10 systems with a few being added every so often.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Speaking of.. the Corsair is one of those ships I would consider!

It looks like an okay option, I have an Endeavor with Hangar module to take as many ships as I can with me. Whether UEE high security system or lawless toilet-space I'll hopefully just be able to Quantum off the elliptical plane for five minutes, put it in park then go exploring in whatever craft I'd managed to fit in it and use it as a proper base that no one will be able to find unless I tell them it's there

We aren't going to get 100 systems on launch. More like under 10 systems with a few being added every so often.

100, 50, 25, 10, 5 systems... if I put a claim in Nemo I'm committing to Nemo... and the grief that will occur if the Vandu'ul wreck up the system like they did to Orion? Well, 'aint no point on putting that second coat of paint on the barn if it's covered in atomic fire falling from the sky.

I've nothing against people who want to put down roots, but I'm not one of them. My in game bio is I was born and raised in the Outsider colony on Leir II but ran away when I discovered I wasn't much more than a genetic holding pattern in a mass eugenics experiment. My home-world thinks I am dead and I am not logged as existing at all by the UEE - so I search for my place in a 'verse that doesn't recognize me in the first place.

 

[Phil]

! This is all napkin based math theory and speculation but it does give some perspective !

How populated is space going to be ? So right now we have roughly 2.5 million backers , let's say down the road we have 15 million players after retail launch. (At its peak in October 2010 World of Warcraft had 12 million players ) http://www.zo.utexas.edu/courses/Thoc/land.html So lets say an earth sized planet has 100,000,000 sqr km of usable surface (based on roughly 50% not usable due to terrain)

Let's say every player gets 5 land deeds of 8km x 8km (64 sqr km ) 320km x 15 million players is about 5 billion sqr km . 5 billion divided by 100 million is 50 earth sized planets

About 50 Earth sized planets worth of player populated surface area . This is so tiny given the 100 planned systems map size and surface area of planets, moons, and asteroids planned for SC , depending on NPC and player density. Even with 500% more NPCS than players , that is just 250 surface populated planets .

I also believe my estimate of each player having 5 x 8k deeds is very high , it will more likely be 2 deeds or 128 sqr km or even less .

This gives realistically roughly 15 earth sized planets worth of surface area that would be populated by players not counting NPC's. It would almost need to be 1000% NPC's , 150 million AI , to make it somewhat busy with a 30 to 50% population density per system and I don't see that happening , but depends on server hardware and code.

Space is big.

A big issue will be how many players can be on the server at the same time, its what 50 right now? So at this point player density wont matter much if only 50 players can be on, lets say they get it up to 1000 by the time the game goes live even then a 1000 players on a server in a game this big is nothing, I really think in the end if they cant open up the server populations past that it will be a pve co-op game more than anything else and considering they said AI would make up 90% or something like that the odds of you running into random people in space is gonna be rare considering the size of this game.

Now I guess when persistence comes into play like you said planet size vs player base and AI etc... sure some planets will be popular and lets say 2.5 million players I could see some planets being high population but seriously depending on the size of the planet and how much AI is on it earth has 7.7 billion people there is a lot to consider here the AI population, the type of planets etc.... I don't see any earth size planet being over populated any time soon there is just to much space out there and I imagine CIG will make planets with enough room for everyone, again there might be that 1 or 2 popular planet people flock to but even then I seriously doubt this game would generate enough people to over populate a planet, unless the AI population was to high but again that's adjustable.

No way this game has 15 million players at launch, no way. For an abundance of reasons a simple few are the PC requirements more than half the WoW population couldn't even run this game on their pc's its a system hog to say the least, add in HOTAS and other items its not a cheap game to get into. Two is even though its an MMO its a space sim and simulator games don't have the biggest player base these days, a lot of people will be discouraged by the space sim part of this game. Three this game is a time sink to say the least, just running missions in 1 system can take an hour or more imagine running multiple systems and stops one mission could take hours maybe half a day depending on the mission itself, a lot of people wont sink hours like that into a game especially one where once you committed to a mission you have to finish it or lose it.

I know a lot of this will change and we don't know where any of its going to be in 2 years and my guess is this game is still 2+ years from being done. I wouldn't worry about player density for awhile but I get your points and your question.

 

[Phil]

Speaking of.. the Corsair is one of those ships I would consider!

This ship more and more starting to appeal to me! I am considering swapping the Aquila for it.

 

[FZD]

! This is all napkin based math theory and speculation but it does give some perspective !

How populated is space going to be ? So right now we have roughly 2.5 million backers , let's say down the road we have 15 million players after retail launch. (At its peak in October 2010 World of Warcraft had 12 million players ) http://www.zo.utexas.edu/courses/Thoc/land.html So lets say an earth sized planet has 100,000,000 sqr km of usable surface (based on roughly 50% not usable due to terrain)

Let's say every player gets 5 land deeds of 8km x 8km (64 sqr km ) 320km x 15 million players is about 5 billion sqr km . 5 billion divided by 100 million is 50 earth sized planets

About 50 Earth sized planets worth of player populated surface area . This is so tiny given the 100 planned systems map size and surface area of planets, moons, and asteroids planned for SC , depending on NPC and player density. Even with 500% more NPCS than players , that is just 250 surface populated planets .

I also believe my estimate of each player having 5 x 8k deeds is very high , it will more likely be 2 deeds or 128 sqr km or even less .

This gives realistically roughly 15 earth sized planets worth of surface area that would be populated by players not counting NPC's. It would almost need to be 1000% NPC's , 150 million AI , to make it somewhat busy with a 30 to 50% population density per system and I don't see that happening , but depends on server hardware and code.

Space is big.

Well, we actually know the diameters, and therefore surface areas, of various planets in Star Citizen. So let's use that information from the get go.

According to CR, Hurston has 2,000 km diameter ingame. This means it has 12,600,000 square kilometer surface area. It could, therefore, have around 200,000 8kmx8km land claims, if the land claims were right next to each other. This sounds good on paper, but it really depends on whether there are 200,000 desirable spots on the planet, and if players were considerate whilst making the claims and 'filled all the seats' so to say. Realistically, players would always seek to be few kilometers from other players, so an 8km*8km land claim becomes 13km*13km spent up area quite easily. This would reduce the claims on Hurston to 75,000. There will probably be some undesirable areas as well, maybe there would be 16km*16km square between 4 land claims, but there isn't notable mineral reserves and the land is barren, and the scenery bleak.

So, all in all, if you ask me Hurston would see a player population of about 50,000. And shoot any NPC that even considers crowding the planet.

Moons are a bit smaller, but there are more of those. Cellin, for example, has in-game surface area of 851,000km^2, and using similar logic as with Hurston, could then hold some 3,500 8km by 8km land claims.

Let's say Hurston is an average sized planet, and Cellin an average sized Moon, and an average planet has 3 moons. An average planet could then hold 3,500 * 3 + 50,000 = 60,500 8km by 8km land claims.

Some backers will likely want more than one land claim, some will want none. Let's say an average backer wants to get 1 8*8km land claim. (And NPCs just love living in cities. I don't want to see them claiming land)

So, with 2.5 million backers, there would need to be 41 planets.
With there being 125 systems planned (or something) I think we can all get our land claims. Though I think some of us will get on a better planet than others.

 

[Bambooza]

! This is all napkin based math theory and speculation but it does give some perspective !

How populated is space going to be ? So right now we have roughly 2.5 million backers , let's say down the road we have 15 million players after retail launch. (At its peak in October 2010 World of Warcraft had 12 million players ) http://www.zo.utexas.edu/courses/Thoc/land.html So lets say an earth sized planet has 100,000,000 sqr km of usable surface (based on roughly 50% not usable due to terrain)

Let's say every player gets 5 land deeds of 8km x 8km (64 sqr km ) 320km x 15 million players is about 5 billion sqr km . 5 billion divided by 100 million is 50 earth sized planets

About 50 Earth sized planets worth of player populated surface area . This is so tiny given the 100 planned systems map size and surface area of planets, moons, and asteroids planned for SC , depending on NPC and player density. Even with 500% more NPCS than players , that is just 250 surface populated planets .

I also believe my estimate of each player having 5 x 8k deeds is very high , it will more likely be 2 deeds or 128 sqr km or even less .

This gives realistically roughly 15 earth sized planets worth of surface area that would be populated by players not counting NPC's. It would almost need to be 1000% NPC's , 150 million AI , to make it somewhat busy with a 30 to 50% population density per system and I don't see that happening , but depends on server hardware and code.

Space is big.

I'd personally be amazed if SC was able to pull in the number of players that WoW has. While I would comfortably say it could double, I agree with @Phil that the game genres along with computer requirements will keep the player population smaller.

The second part is correct if everyone takes their max land deeds then they would need 50 earth size planets to handle the player population request. But as others have mentioned given the maintenance costs the protection costs and so much of the game revolves around gameplay loops requiring traveling around the system/systems I imagine a small fraction of the player population will utilize a land claim let alone multiple. More then likely player groups will pool their resources for one base be it an HQ or mining resources. But even then it's all speculation as there is so much we don't know and I imagine CIG hasn't really even given much thought to what can players build and why would they.

A big issue will be how many players can be on the server at the same time, its what 50 right now? So at this point player density wont matter much if only 50 players can be on, lets say they get it up to 1000 by the time the game goes live even then a 1000 players on a server in a game this big is nothing, I really think in the end if they cant open up the server populations past that it will be a pve co-op game more than anything else and considering they said AI would make up 90% or something like that the odds of you running into random people in space is gonna be rare considering the size of this game.

Server Mesh is supposed to fix this issue by making the area the server handles scale based upon the current player load. I also imagine they will also need to auto shard some locations as the player density gets to the point where it's not really possible to shrink the area the server is handling to a smaller size then say Hurston or Area 18. It's going to see the performance increase that SSOCS brings but I can't imagine it will allow for more than 100 players per server. Especially with the current frame rate of 30 on the servers.

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Mostly I think the vast majority of the players are going to spread out by both time and location within the verse so it should lead to fewer instances of the same area.

 

[ColdDog]

Space is big.

That's why this game relies so much on Organizations. We are going to have major trade hubs under contest and expansion. These types of things require a good corporation/group/guild - whatever you want to call it. I see it like a football (American) game. Our goal is to get stuff to market - legitimate or illegitimate - we can take property by force (pirate) or we can cultivate our own (mining, farming, make drugs, etc). To me, this game is 110% monetary, meaning you must get your stuff to the goal line to succeed. Prolly, 90% of the battles will be in the redzone (20 yard line to the goal line). My 2 cents.