Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Vavrik · Apr 28, 2020

Jolly_Green_Giant said:
Has anyone seen a reasonable explanation for the shape of the graph, say with the big spikes followed by a big downturn? My first thought is it has to do with the day of the week or the weather. Day of the week because maybe its the weekends, or some pattern that I overlooked, and weather because we don't know much about the virus but we do know temperature and humidity affect viruses in one way or another. Maybe I just don't understand the data.

It's that data comes in from individual hospitals when they have staff available to make the individual reports, and is collated by the county before being sent to state where it is made available for reporting. There is no real national oversight. The US Government and it's agencies such as the CDC have advisory roles only in this process. As it is, the data is being made available by private companies and universities. They release the reports and analysis back to the state and federal government. It's kind of working, until a state or county becomes a bottleneck, which seems to happen every weekend.
I'd be critical of it, but I'm noticing the same things happening in virtually every other country so it feels more like...everyone got caught with their pants down.

NaffNaffBobFace · Apr 28, 2020

UK numbers for today Tuesday 28th April:

Total confirmed cases 161,145 with 3,996 new. Total dead 21,678 with 586 new:

Todays status is bought to you by wider testing announced in the UK. The net screenshot is from a scene in the film Spartacus.

Todays status outlook is bought to you by data revealing that 16% of all UK deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in care homes, which account for 1% of the population. The care home figures will be added to the daily numbers from Wednesday onward so expect perhaps a bit of a spike tomorrow. The gun toting pensioner screenshot is from the film Cockneys Vs Zombies.

The above chart is taken from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52455072

Montoya · Apr 28, 2020

Jolly_Green_Giant said:
Has anyone seen a reasonable explanation for the shape of the graph, say with the big spikes followed by a big downturn?

Looking at US data, you see spikes in Fridays.

Vavrik said:
It's that data comes in from individual hospitals when they have staff available to make the individual reports,

And there is the likely answer.

They probably want to get the numbers updated ahead of the weekend.

Using a moving average will give you smoother chart.

Aramsolari · Apr 28, 2020

Not basing my views on any stats or scientific methodology.

I REALLY believe we need to just tough it out with restrictive measures than prolong it by enacting half ass ones. All the countries that are recovering well seem to be the ones that enacted tough measures.

As for the Social Economic impact...I really have no solutions except now is as good a time as any to give Universal Basic Income a shot. People need to get it in their heads that it's not free money dished out to the undeserving. It's tax payer money that's taken from you in the first place. I get that there should be funds available to help business but what's the point of saving said businesses when you bankrupt and lose the middle class? Who's Amazon gonna sell their shit to?

Radegast74 · Apr 28, 2020

Montoya said:
Lets see how Georgia pans out.

In a week from now, if we see these lines go lower, it will be an all-clear signal.

If the go higher, well, we failed to learn from history.

Based on Louisiana, Mardi Gras, and how long it took for the cases to pile up, I'd say you'd want to give it at least 2 weeks, and preferably 3 weeks. Somebody catches the disease, they can have it 5-7 days before feeling any symptoms, and then they need another 5-7 days before they either get over it (mild case, probably doesn't get counted) or they get worse and go to a doctor or hospital (and likely do get counted.

Jolly_Green_Giant said:
Has anyone seen a reasonable explanation for the shape of the graph, say with the big spikes followed by a big downturn? My first thought is it has to do with the day of the week or the weather. Day of the week because maybe its the weekends, or some pattern that I overlooked, and weather because we don't know much about the virus but we do know temperature and humidity affect viruses in one way or another. Maybe I just don't understand the data.

It's exactly as @Vavrik said...look at the graphs for Sweden...the highest count of cases is every Friday, and then it goes down Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and then starts going back up again...lather, rinse, repeat. There really isn't an disease mechanism reason why the virus would take the weekend off, lol, it is likely that the data tabulators/data entry people are only a skeleton crew on the weekends, and their inbox just piles up.

Aramsolari · Apr 28, 2020

Radegast74 said:
There really isn't an disease mechanism reason why the virus would take the weekend off, lol,

Lazy viruses! Taking weekends off...grumble grumble...

Bambooza · Apr 28, 2020

Radegast74 said:
lol, get used to it...the deficit has been increasing *every* year and will only get worse with the current budget...we were on quite a spending spree before this, which didn't help:
View attachment 15650

The issue is as reported by a study done for the World Bank that the higher the ratio of debt to GDP the less likely the country will be in paying back its debt and the higher the risk of default. The study also found that debt to GDP ratio higher then 77% for any extended period of time slows economic growth. The other issue is even if a country does not make any payments towards reducing the principle of the debt the servicing of the debt either requires increase taxes or reduced services and often both happen. It gets worse as the economic impact reduces the GDP making the interest rates on the debt increase. So no, it's not something to brush aside nor was it something that has been increasing every year. While I am in agreement that it might not be something we can do anything about right now it is something our future selves will hate us over.

Bambooza · Apr 28, 2020

Jolly_Green_Giant said:
I couldn't tell exactly which days those fell on and I assumed the spikes were over the weekend. That said, I was like "maybe its because people gather in groups more on the weekends and theres a lag."

We should call the virus and ask it what the hell is going on.

Wait do people even remember what a weekend is for or has all the days blended together? I have noticed a lack of table-flipping in another post come Mondays.

Radegast74 · Apr 29, 2020

Jolly_Green_Giant said:
I couldn't tell exactly which days those fell on and I assumed the spikes were over the weekend. That said, I was like "maybe its because people gather in groups more on the weekends and theres a lag."

There may very well be something like that, now that you mention it (but aren't people also close at work?). If you want to look at a "trend" for something in data like that, where there are predictable peaks and valleys, you would want to remove the "seasonality" (in this case, "week-ality")...a moving average would tend to distort the endpoint, the schoolbook solution would be to average the 3.5 days before each point and the 3.5 days after each point, or something like that...if I'm bored tomorrow at work, I can try something like that.

August · Apr 29, 2020

As at 6:30am on 29 April 2020, there have been 6,738 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 13 new cases since 6:00am yesterday.

Of the 6,738 confirmed cases in Australia, 88 have died and 5,649 have been reported as recovered from COVID-19. More than 536,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.

NaffNaffBobFace · Apr 29, 2020

As of 10pm today Wednesday 29th of April, they have not updated the UK daily figures.

August · Apr 30, 2020

As at 6:00am on 30 April 2020, there have been 6,746 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 8 additional cases since 6:00am yesterday.

Slowly, slowly. This stuff doesn’t go away easily.

ColdDog · Apr 30, 2020

WHO says they used sound science to tell the world there was no issue with this virus (could not be transferred from human to human). While China stockpiled PPE and later they tried to sell to Italy and other countries at an inflated cost, 4-6 weeks passed before the WHO acknowledged it. Like saying, "Sorry I burned down your house, let me build you a new one for 3x the cost."

The whole world has the right to be upset.

1. They are totally incompetent.
2. They are politically motivated and corrupt.
3. They are incompetent, politically motivated, and corrupt. (All of the Above)

I vote for #3

Montoya · Apr 30, 2020

Some hopeful news:

ColdDog · Apr 30, 2020

Montoya said:
Some hopeful news:

Good news is better than no news.

ColdDog · Apr 30, 2020

Question? Why can't they find DNA or RNA sequences to kill all "Corona" Viruses? We can gene splice right? Why shoot for covid-19 when we can direct the effort to eliminating "all" Corona viruses.

Target this one HCoV-229E

Coronavirus genome structure and replication - PubMed

In addition to the SARS coronavirus (treated separately elsewhere in this volume), the complete genome sequences of six species in the coronavirus genus of the coronavirus family [avian infectious bronchitis virus-Beaudette strain (IBV-Beaudette), bovine coronavirus-ENT strain (BCoV-ENT), human...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Abstract
In addition to the SARS coronavirus (treated separately elsewhere in this volume), the complete genome sequences of six species in the coronavirus genus of the coronavirus family [avian infectious bronchitis virus-Beaudette strain (IBV-Beaudette), bovine coronavirus-ENT strain (BCoV-ENT), human coronavirus-229E strain (HCoV-229E), murine hepatitis virus-A59 strain (MHV-A59), porcine transmissible gastroenteritis-Purdue 115 strain (TGEV-Purdue 115), and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus-CV777 strain (PEDV-CV777)] have now been reported. Their lengths range from 27,317 nt for HCoV-229E to 31,357 nt for the murine hepatitis virus-A59, establishing the coronavirus genome as the largest known among RNA viruses. The basic organization of the coronavirus genome is shared with other members of the Nidovirus order (the torovirus genus, also in the family Coronaviridae, and members of the family Arteriviridae) in that the nonstructural proteins involved in proteolytic processing, genome replication, and subgenomic mRNA synthesis (transcription) (an estimated 14-16 end products for coronaviruses) are encoded within the 5'-proximal two-thirds of the genome on gene 1 and the (mostly) structural proteins are encoded within the 3'-proximal one-third of the genome (8-9 genes for coronaviruses). Genes for the major structural proteins in all coronaviruses occur in the 5' to 3' order as S, E, M, and N. The precise strategy used by coronaviruses for genome replication is not yet known, but many features have been established. This chapter focuses on some of the known features and presents some current questions regarding genome replication strategy, the cis-acting elements necessary for genome replication [as inferred from defective interfering (DI) RNA molecules], the minimum sequence requirements for autonomous replication of an RNA replicon, and the importance of gene order in genome replication.

Vavrik · Apr 30, 2020

ColdDog said:
Question? Why can't they find DNA or RNA sequences to kill all "Corona" Viruses? We can gene splice right? Why shoot for covid-19 when we can direct the effort to eliminating "all" Corona viruses.

Target this one HCoV-229E

Coronavirus genome structure and replication - PubMed

In addition to the SARS coronavirus (treated separately elsewhere in this volume), the complete genome sequences of six species in the coronavirus genus of the coronavirus family [avian infectious bronchitis virus-Beaudette strain (IBV-Beaudette), bovine coronavirus-ENT strain (BCoV-ENT), human...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

If you want to read it, the full report is here: (261 pages, but available free)

Coronavirus Replication and Reverse Genetics | SpringerLink

Coronaviruses are the RNA viruses with the largest genome known to date (27 to 32 kb). Members of this virus family affect most domestic animal species, causing important socio-economical losses, and

link.springer.com

You're not actually that far from the mark there. There are tens or hundreds of billions of copies of the virus in each infected person. To eradicate a virus that way, they have to locate and capture each and every virion (an individual virus organism) and they are very very small. They also infect more than just humans, they also infect many other types of animals. We'd have to get them all, or it'll just start this process over again.

But like I said, you're not far from the mark, and that's why we need a vaccine. All of the chemical and medicinal (aka the mechanical way of virus irradication) treatments in the world can't guarantee that each and every active copy of the virus has been killed. That would be a very tall order. But if we can develop a vaccine, what it does is teach our immune system how to recognize and kill the virus. Then at least for a time your body has a defense it can use against it. And if it's temporary, vaccines are usually really cheap to replicate.

NaffNaffBobFace · Apr 30, 2020

As of 8am (EDIT - rechecked 10:45am) on the 30th April still no daily updated numbers for the UK yesterday 29th of April on https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Either this means they are playing silly buggers with the Metrics again, or something seriously serious has serioused up.

Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

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