Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Bambooza

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The issue here is that the US isn't an island, no matter how badly some may want the country to be.The US needs trade partners to maintain its position of economic dominance. When your traditional trading partners have their Covid19 cases trending down while yours is still climbing, that's a problem. You can stand on a podium and yell all you want to the heavens that 'America is now Open' but it won't do a lick of good because people still aren't coming. Countries will be reluctant to reestablish the same trade deals, tourists will be fearful of visiting, etc. etc. Unless of course your desire is to make the US an autarkic country that's 'self sufficient'. You know what other countries are 'self sufficient'? North Korea and Venezuela.

Let me tell you right now that kind of economic isolation is suicide. People will dump US treasury bonds in a heart beat. Countries will cease using the US dollar as a foreign reserve currency, folks will stop trading Oil in dollars, and the US Economy WILL collapse. Hyperinflation will set in and we'll all experience something worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. This is not complex economics here, this is the financial order that we've all been operating under since 1971 (Post Bretton-Woods).

You need to understand that We (The rest of the World) want you guys to do well. I actually WANT Trump to pull through on this because so much is at stake. If he gets reelected because he does a good job in getting us out of this quagmire, more power to him. The industry I'm in for example is watching what's happening in the US nervously. We can't go really go back to work until there's some sort of normalcy and things are under control.

There are some logical fallacies in your arguments.

Covid19 has not stopped most imports/exports in areas were good still exists, some goods are limited/not available but this is not due to trade route disruption so much as manufacturing disruption in the supply chain. Some areas like oil import have caused futures traders to lose cash due to the overstock of oil.

While tourism can/will be impacted by countries with active Covid19 cases for most countries tourism export (those coming to the country) is a very small part of the tourist industry and an even smaller part of a countries GDP. (the industry is 2.8% of the USA GDP, International Tourism accounts for 32% of the total tourism industry) https://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/download_data_table/Fast_Facts_2017.pdf

So even if no tourist from outside the country came over it would have a small impact on the overall GDP of the USA. Changing the overall countries policy in regard to the current pandemic would not change the country's foreign trade nor lead to a countries attempt at being autarkic. In fact, the two countries you listed as being simi autarkic are not of their own choices but forced upon them by sanctions by the UN. (North Korea still trades heavily with China, Venezuela top three trade partners are USA, China, and India)

Dumping of treasury bonds would hurt the holders of the bonds just as much as it would the US. Of the 22 trillion issued 36% is held by the US Government, 28% is held by foreign countries of that percent China holds 17.3% and Japan holds 16.5%. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/foreign-countries-holding-most-u-s-debt/

Economics has maintained that the overseas demand for the dollar has allowed the US to continue a large trade deficit while not affecting the value of the dollar or cause the trade flow to readjust. But that in the near future these pressures would precipitate a run against the US dollar with serious global financial consequences and a rebalancing of the US trade.

So no the country going back to work would do far more to stabilize the countries economics than the possible loss from tourism. In fact, going back to work now would help establish goods and services that currently are not being met by other countries thus increasing exports and further strengthen the dollar.
 

ColdDog

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Dumping of treasury bonds would hurt the holders of the bonds just as much as it would the US. Of the 22 trillion issued 36% is held by the US Government
And... the US could nullify China's bonds, which they (China) would complain to the WTO about. Such is the game we play.
 

ColdDog

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By the time this done, China will find itself in the same predicament as N. Korea and Iran. They have not pulled countries closer to them, they have driven them away.
 

ColdDog

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If you were to weaponize a virus... how would you make it? Contagious as fuck and targeted. We see now that it targeted old people; less cost to the country in retirement payments (China) and contagious. So, here we are asking debating if this was an accident or intentional. Even though governments may be polite, I would suspect that it was planned. China closes its boarders to Wuhan and kept the airports open, was that in the interest of the World? No... so the question is why.
 

Aramsolari

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There are some logical fallacies in your arguments.

Covid19 has not stopped most imports/exports in areas were good still exists, some goods are limited/not available but this is not due to trade route disruption so much as manufacturing disruption in the supply chain. Some areas like oil import have caused futures traders to lose cash due to the overstock of oil.

While tourism can/will be impacted by countries with active Covid19 cases for most countries tourism export (those coming to the country) is a very small part of the tourist industry and an even smaller part of a countries GDP. (the industry is 2.8% of the USA GDP, International Tourism accounts for 32% of the total tourism industry) https://travel.trade.gov/outreachpages/download_data_table/Fast_Facts_2017.pdf

So even if no tourist from outside the country came over it would have a small impact on the overall GDP of the USA. Changing the overall countries policy in regard to the current pandemic would not change the country's foreign trade nor lead to a countries attempt at being autarkic. In fact, the two countries you listed as being simi autarkic are not of their own choices but forced upon them by sanctions by the UN. (North Korea still trades heavily with China, Venezuela top three trade partners are USA, China, and India)

Dumping of treasury bonds would hurt the holders of the bonds just as much as it would the US. Of the 22 trillion issued 36% is held by the US Government, 28% is held by foreign countries of that percent China holds 17.3% and Japan holds 16.5%. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/foreign-countries-holding-most-u-s-debt/

Economics has maintained that the overseas demand for the dollar has allowed the US to continue a large trade deficit while not affecting the value of the dollar or cause the trade flow to readjust. But that in the near future these pressures would precipitate a run against the US dollar with serious global financial consequences and a rebalancing of the US trade.

So no the country going back to work would do far more to stabilize the countries economics than the possible loss from tourism. In fact, going back to work now would help establish goods and services that currently are not being met by other countries thus increasing exports and further strengthen the dollar.
Appreciate the post. I may not always agree with your views but you always present them calmly and logically. Cheers.
 

Aramsolari

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If you were to weaponize a virus... how would you make it? Contagious as fuck and targeted. We see now that it targeted old people; less cost to the country in retirement payments (China) and contagious. So, here we are asking debating if this was an accident or intentional. Even though governments may be polite, I would suspect that it was planned. China closes its boarders to Wuhan and kept the airports open, was that in the interest of the World? No... so the question is why.
Yeah....I'm tired trying of replying to your incessant China bashing and conspiracy theories. Just do us all a favor alright? Pace yourself in your posts. Let others get a word in especially when they're posting about the issue at hand (Covid19). Lets keep this thread on topic instead of changing it into some Red Dawn fan fiction.
 
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Aramsolari

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My father is the very much the same.... there is no middle ground with him he is extremely anti trump. Me on the other hand im not on either side of the fence with him and i for the most part stay out of politics. I see good stuff he does i see bad stuff he does but we also have to remember he doesnt always make all the decisions hes just one man in our entire government and its easier to point at one person and say you freaken suck instead of our entire system and say system you are failing us as a people.
Yeah it's really unfortunate. Politics has become very politicized and it really sucks. I've made it a point not to discuss it with close friends and family for that reason.
 

Montoya

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I really think opening up now will simply nullify what gains we've made in shutting down in the first place. All the lives lost and economic hardship would have been for naught.
I hope we are wrong about that, but it seems it may be the case.

I do not think so, I am seeing Trump as saying we have to get back to work or our economy imploding with be much greater damage than the virus itself. We have to (Americans)... I am sure if it was prudent to say stay home (in your hole) until it has passed, that he would (easy road), then we all will be without jobs, food, and other necessities.
An economy can always be revived. A dead body can not.

How many Americans do you want to die? Another 100? Or is it 10,000?

Or do you simply not care as long as its not you or your family?

The economy can implode tomorrow and can be raised from the dead a week later by our boys at Goldman Sachs.

If staying locked down for another 6wks at the cost of JC Penny declaring bankruptcy, would you do it if it saved 1000 American lives?

Oh and as for:

then we all will be without jobs, food, and other necessities.
Do you want to see what a government who got their shit together does for this people when they tell them to stay home?

1588812683108.png

(source: boredpanda.com/south-korean-government-care-package/ )

That is a care package that Koreans got.

Wanna guess how many Koreans went and protested they want to go back to work so they could afford food?

Zero.

Im not saying its logistically possible to send care packages like that to all of America, but at least help out the hotspots like NYC. If there was ever a time for the federal government to step up, this was the time to do it.
 

Sirus7264

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Yeah it's really unfortunate. Politics has become very politicized and it really sucks. I've made it a point not to discuss it with close friends and family for that reason.
yeah after my last discussion with my father on politics i just keep away from talking about politics with him anymore he won't listen to anything i saw on the subject and is extremely left anytime something bad happens immediately its all about trump....
 
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Montoya

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And... the US could nullify China's bonds, which they (China) would complain to the WTO about. Such is the game we play.
Yeah... no.

If that ever happened, nobody would ever buy US Treasuries again, also they would need to increase interest rates to make them attractive, which jacks up rates for everybody. Say goodbye to your 30yr mortgage at 3%, say hello to a 30yr at 18% like in 1980 and the death of the housing market as we know it. We all saw what happened last time property prices dropped, right?
 

Sirus7264

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I
Do you want to see what a government who got their shit together does for this people when they tell them to stay home?


(source: boredpanda.com/south-korean-government-care-package/ )

That is a care package that Koreans got.

Wanna guess how many Koreans went and protested they want to go back to work so they could afford food?

Zero.

Im not saying its logistically possible to send care packages like that to all of America, but at least help out the hotspots like NYC. If there was ever a time for the federal government to step up, this was the time to do it.
Wow i had no idea this is amazing. as for japan the country is in "State of emergency" not really a lockdown but the government has asked businesses to close etc and are providing releif to the ones that do. sadly the people are not staying indoors and do not always respect the 6 foot rule(2 meter) of staying away from each other. As for my work the ones who can work outside the office do and the people who are in the office building are kept minimal obviously we can't all stay home and we can't not be here. With all that said and done things are very careful here while we do work everyone is sanitiizing all the spaces they are in only leave their desks when they have to stay 6 feet apart. everyone is required to wear a mask.

I myself to futher precautions because i 100% cannot get sick or hell will break loose.(if my partner does to its going to really fuck shit up which is why we are never in the building the same week) i don't leave my office( i work by myself in here) when i do leave my office its to goto my car, restroom or necessary places, no one comes near my desk if they need to come in here i keep them a minimal of 6 feet apart and if they can i tell them call me instead and discuss there if i need to give them something i leave it at the front door and they go pick it up and leave. I require anyone who touches my door to sanitize their hands before comming in and before leaving.(yeah a few might forget but if they have santizer dripping off their hands while they touch the door that guy will sanitize the handle while they are leaving or comming in.) 3 times a day i wipe down/spraydown any area(walls, keyboards, furniture) in which someone may have come in contact with disinfectant. if i goto another office, use the stairs, or an elevator to go somewhere such as a meeting i have to be physically there for i minimize anything i need to touch(handrails furniture walls etc), I take the shortest least crowded least used areas as possible, and i wash my hands before i go back to my office. Like i always tell everyone if you don't want to get sick you have control of your own situation. It's not impossible to work you just need to be very very cautious and very very observant of your surrounding area. I probably go overboard with my measures but its for good reason and probably comes alot from my nuclear background in which you have to think of all possible scenarios and be ready to combat those before they happen with the correct actions and be ready for complications.(Even if they never ever happen. better to be safe then sorry control your life)
 

AntiSqueaker

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This is off topic a bit but I get hammered today by corporate for "furloughing" one of my dudes at work. This happened a month ago lmao, so rapid response alert.

He has a wife who is immuno-compromised, so I furloughed him, naturally due to business needs since we hired 3 new part timers to cover shifts. /s Which is technically true, buuuuuuuuuut

Definitely not because he would keep his health benefits while being furloughed and could get unemployment + CARE act which is almost 100% of his base pay and not risk his wife getting sick, oh no. He knew ahead of time and thought it was a great idea.

So now the hammer of judgement is upon me but I really couldn't give a shit. If they try to censure or fire me I'll roast their asses in court because technically I did everything by the book and the dummies at corporate just rubber stamped the furlough form without realizing. Plus that's some baaaaaad press.

No way in hell I'm going to ask a guy who's worked with me for 3 years to choose between his job and his wife.
 

ColdDog

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I'll answer everyone here inline because I know my thoughts are not mainstream US hating.

Yeah....I'm tired trying of replying to your incessant China bashing and conspiracy theories.
China deserves this treatment 100x over because of their arrogance, they are N. Korea with a small economy, they are like flys on a carcass, or road kill.

Politics has become very politicized and it really sucks.
Duh, the world politics = politicized

How many Americans do you want to die? Another 100? Or is it 10,000?
I want 0 Americans to die. I'll be damned if 2 million Americans die under China. China does not hold the cards here, they have been proved to be the despots they are.


ay goodbye to your 30yr mortgage at 3%, say hello to a 30yr at 18% like in 1980 and the death of the housing market as we know it. We all saw what happened last time property prices dropped, right?
So be it. Americans have lost more in the past under English rule and the civil war. If all you care about is your 401k and not world stability then that is your problem.

Because over and over, Trumps experts are saying it was not lab created and is not a plot to infect the world, thats why.
Trump never said that it was a biological weapon. I did a couple months ago, and I still believe it. It is just disguised as something occurring in nature. Again, it is contagious and targeted.
 

Montoya

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I want 0 Americans to die.
But this goes completely against your previous posts about not wanting to wear masks and open up everything for business.

JC Penny can survive! But grandma will die..

If you want zero Americans to die, that means you need support quarantines and lock downs.

You are confusing me, which is it?
 

ColdDog

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But this goes completely against your previous posts about not wanting to wear masks and open up everything for business.
No it does not, you are not being honest with the context. I want 0 Americans to die, but if there is to be War, more of the enemy will die than us.

Imagine in Starcitizen... Montoya takes a solar system and sends bunch of Auroras to blot out the sun and the opposing force has a a few hammer heads. The US/Canada/Australia/UK are the Hammerheads and China is the Auroras. China can make an Aircraft carrier with our technology, but only the US has fought with one in a "REAL" war.
 

ColdDog

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I think we are having two different conversations.
Yup, I do not wear a mask (you can cringe), I do not wear a condom either (you can celebrate). Is this what the world has come to, you have to wear a mask on your face and a condom on your penis.

I prefer to let my mouth breath and my penis to do what it was designed to do.

I want 0 people to die breathing the air and having sex.
 
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