Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - reports from around the world from today, Friday 4th of December:

- World: 65,583,297 confirmed cases and 1,512,846 confirmed deaths.

- World: Passes 65 million cases. We passes 64 million on Wednesday meaning an additional 1 million cases in the last 2/3 days.

- US: President Elect Biden pledges to take vaccine in public to prove its safety, following on from Obama, Bush and Clinton making the pledge.

- US: Dr Joseph Varon, who was pictured in protective gear hugging an elderly patent who was missing his wife and went viral earlier in the week, indicates "I've worked 258 days straight".

- US: Jobs growth slows as COVID cases continue to rise, with only 245,000 new jobs created in November, lower than expected and below half compared to 610,000 in October.

- US: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Fauci/UK: Dr. Fauci apologises for suggesting the UK had rushed its approach to signing off on the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine "I did not mean to imply any sloppiness, [...] a great deal of confidence in what the UK does both scientifically and from a regulator standpoint".

- Bahrain: Becomes second country to approve Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

- Russia: Head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund stated in an interview he expects 2 million Vaccines to be administered in December.

- UK: Lidl becomes the next supermarket to repay their Business Rates relief to the tune of £100 million.

- Austria: Begins effort to test as much of the population before Christmas.

- Wales: Country of Blaenau Gwent to close all schools in the area as it already has 900 school children across 18 schools self isolating.

- World/Cinema: Warner Bros plans to release movies on Streaming services at the same time as in Cinemas for 2021, throwing the already haggard big screen industry in to turmoil.

- Philippines: Police threaten to cane people who break Social Distancing rules, using 1 meter long sticks to measure the distance between people, adding “It can be used to cane the hardheaded,”
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Saturday 5th of December:

- World: 66,250,018 confirmed cases and 1,524,569 confirmed deaths.

- World: passes 66 million cases, we passed 65 million yesterday meaning one million more cases in one day.

- UK: First vaccine deliveries arrive in Belfast and Scotland to begin being administered on Tuesday.

- Russia: Begins administering Sputnik V vaccines in Moscow today.

- US: CDC recommends universal mask use indoors where people have to share spaces such as stores and offices etc.

- US: President Elect Biden says he doesn't think the COVID vaccine will be made mandatory. Also said: “[Americans are] in trouble through no fault of their own. What they need, they need us to understand, we’re in a crisis. We need the Congress to act, and act now.”

- WHO: Warns that vaccines will take time to start to work and people should not assume receiving a shot means they are immune immediately and work will still need to be done even after vaccinations are commonplace “Vaccination will add a major, major, powerful tool to the toolkit that we have. But by themselves, they will not do the job.”

- Argentina: To tax 12,000 of it's most wealthy to help pay for COVID relief measures, and have been dubbed the "Millionaires Tax".

- Turkey: Sees record daily deaths.

- Iran: Death toll passes 50,000.

- Australia: No new COVID cases reported in South Australia for seventh day in a row.
 

Vavrik

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- WHO: Warns that vaccines will take time to start to work and people should not assume receiving a shot means they are immune immediately and work will still need to be done even after vaccinations are commonplace “Vaccination will add a major, major, powerful tool to the toolkit that we have. But by themselves, they will not do the job.”
The WHO leadership is always late with the same advice everyone else on the planet has been saying for a month or more - including their own scientists and medical staff. If the WHO leadership can't lead, it's time for a change.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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The WHO leadership is always late with the same advice everyone else on the planet has been saying for a month or more - including their own scientists and medical staff. If the WHO leadership can't lead, it's time for a change.
It has been perhaps the stand-out feature of this pandemic for me here in the UK that where there is no explicit evidence for a course of action of precaution, it is not taken until there is solid evidence obtained or presented. Notable here for the phrase "following the science" used from day one, when there wasn't any to follow. For masks, for example, it didn't matter that Asia immediately implemented them and was able to get a control of the situation in many places rapidly, with no evidence the toss was argued for months with no one saying "Well, we'll put 'em on just in case" with other, with just as much lack of evidence, saying "Well using them could cause MORE harm" yeah if there is no evidence for using them where is the evidence for not using them?

I think to better know why the WHO is last to the table with info we all know, it's worth taking the time to see what their role actually is: I'm not sure if it's a leadership change at the WHO that is required but more a policy change which the world needs to agree to - They orginise and advise, but I'm not sure it if they are permitted to be in a leadership role? I can see a case for if that advice is not solid they will loose their ability to have the world follow that advice... Say, for instance, what was being done in Asian countries wasn't face masks, it was pinning sticks of Celery to ones lapel and it just so happened that with other elements of their culture they were able to get a control of cases in their areas... well:

1607241988673.png


Perhaps if the policy is to become one of precaution rather than just the facts? Perhaps they would need to have a base level of precautions based on what can be found out about the type of pathogen it is, and start from there based on anecdotal evidence rather than waiting for total confirmation before issuing advice that the world should then follow?

We could do with that here
I recall there was a group of about 80 UK millionaires asking the government to tax them more so that the country could weather the crisis better. There are about 3.6 million households in the UK in possession of wealth in excess of £1 million, so assuming that makes 3.6 million millionaires, that's 0.002% of millionaires in the country who are happy enough with that suggestion that they went out of their way to request it... :-/
 
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PeppaPigKilla

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I recall there was a group of about 80 UK millionaires asking the government to tax them more so that the country could weather the crisis better. There are about 3.6 million households in the UK in possession of wealth in excess of £1 million, so assuming that makes 3.6 million millionaires, that's 0.002% of millionaires in the country who are happy enough with that suggestion that they went out of their way to request it... :-/
im speculating but I'm thinking maybe the ones who dont want this have links to the parties and wont donate if you tax blah blah blah
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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im speculating but I'm thinking maybe the ones who dont want this have links to the parties and wont donate if you tax blah blah blah
That's usually the way it works. Everyone has a voice, but money talks.
 
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Vavrik

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It has been perhaps the stand-out feature of this pandemic for me here in the UK that where there is no explicit evidence for a course of action of precaution, it is not taken until there is solid evidence obtained or presented. Notable here for the phrase "following the science" used from day one, when there wasn't any to follow. For masks, for example, it didn't matter that Asia immediately implemented them and was able to get a control of the situation in many places rapidly, with no evidence the toss was argued for months with no one saying "Well, we'll put 'em on just in case" with other, with just as much lack of evidence, saying "Well using them could cause MORE harm" yeah if there is no evidence for using them where is the evidence for not using them?
It's worse than that actually. There was always evidence for using them. It was being ignored for decades by the medical community.

You know those designations of disposable respirator grades that they use - here in North America it's like N95, R95, P95, N99, P100 (actually 99.97) and the like...The numeric part is the % of particulate matter at 300 nanometers in size they filter. But the letter designation means something too.
N = Not resistant to oil.
R = partially resistant to oil
P = strongly resistant to oil.
Here in the US, these standards are maintained by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), largely driven by the petrochemical industry. The purpose of the masks was to prevent inhalation of those particles, but since these are passive filters, it works both ways. The fact that it works both ways seems to have been forgotten by the medical community for a long time.

The surgical masks your doctor or dentist wears are not part of this standard, and are not as good but they are standardized and governed (in the US) by the FDA (Food and Drug Administration). They work pretty well but they leak out the sides, top and bottom. They're not respirators, but they're good enough for surgery.

As far as cloth masks go, they are largely unregulated, but are not worthless. The medical community used cloth masks for a very long time.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Sunday 6th of December:

- World: 66,818,756 confirmed cases and 1,533,018 confirmed deaths.

- US: Sees record high daily new cases, with close to 230,000 confirmed cases in one day.

- US: Deborah Brix, coordinator of the Covid Task Force, accuses Trump Administration of mixed messages: “Right now, across the Sun Belt, we have governors and mayors who have cases equivalent to what they had in the summertime yet aren’t putting in the same policies and mitigations that they put in the summer, that they know changed the course of this pandemic across the South,” [...] “So it is frustrating because not only do we know what works, governors and mayors used those tools to stem the tide in the spring and the summer,"

- Russia: Sees record high daily new cases.

- US: Vaccine Chief Moncef Slaoui says he can see light at the end of the tunnel and that Americans should take comfort in that but keep following the restrictions for now.

- Wales: Minister Vaughan Gething stated in a radio interview: "It will take months with more than one vaccine needed to come on board before we can protect everybody," [...] "The message is there's hope so please stick with it for another few months to get us to the spring, the early summer, when we think we could have population coverage and population protection."

- Italy: passes 60,000 confirmed deaths, sitting at sixth place just behind the UK for highest number of fatalities.

- China: Begins to roll out COVID vaccines across the country.

- Indonesia: Social Affairs Minister accused of taking bribes while arranging Food Aid for those effected by the COVID pandemic, after police raided their house and located 14.5 billion Rupiah ($1 million USD) hidden throughout it.

- Scotland: Passes 100,000 confirmed COVID cases.

- South Korea: Sees spike in cases and new restrictions to the capital city and surrounding area.
 

Jolly_Green_Giant

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@Montoya i was thinking on this for a bit. Going back to what I said not long ago about my reality not matching up with what I'm being told, and you saying its only a reflection of my local area. Completely understandable. However, my local area consists of the second busiest ER in the United States and family reports (active EMS personnel) from Miami-Dade county. You know as well as I do that Florida is a hot spot. 75% of Florida's population lives within a 100 mile radius of me. Don't hold me to that number, but I know its somewhere close. What have your peeps been reporting from Tampa?

Here in polk county, the second largest county in the state we have had 28,000 confirmed cases and 700 deaths since this thing started (I'm using 11 months) according to a quick google search. That's just over 3% of the county (population 724,777) that has contracted the virus since they have been keeping track, and that assumes everyone has only been tested once and there have been zero false positives. 68 deaths per month on average. The 2019 death rate from influenza / pneumonia alone was 145 per 100,000 or roughly 1050 for the whole year. Im not going off of any news organizations post or analysis, I just decided to look this all up myself using the states website. Same with what I showed earlier about influenza cases being way below average so far, its all there in the data. So when I look at this, at the data from the state health department, I am seeing that this virus is as deadly, or less deadly than the flu (its just the flu bro). I went to beef o Brady's yesterday, indoor dining, no one except for the waitresses were wearing masks, and I feel that that is a reflection of everywhere else around here. Instead of seeing influenza cases well below average (as is currently the case per the data), with the lack of social distancing and mask wearing you would think you would have around your average cases this time of year with compounding cases of COVID, but that's just not the case. Im no calculus scientist smart man but where am I going wrong? Maybe someone else can run the math because I know for a fact I suck with numbers.



EDIT:

The influenza report for the week


EDIT2:

If you could, you could do it for the tampa area, or miami-dade, or statewide. It doesn't look like the numbers are that significantly different. I also understand that were still not worried just about the death rate, but how infectious the disease is and overloading the health system. That makes sense, but I only started questioning that when I went out the other day and saw next to zero precautions being taken. Im questioning whether or not the data for covid is being misreported and its either being overdiagnosed, or theyre misdiagnosing influenza. I don't think its nefarious to misdiagnose influenza as even with a negative swab docs would still write it down as an influenza diagnosis, only now they have the option to diagnose as covid. It could be a multitude of things.

I just have one big question mark above my head.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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It's an interesting question there @Jolly_Green_Giant do you know how your local area is handling cases? I know where I live here in the UK people have been told that under any circumstance they should not go to the ER with COVID as they will infect the staff and other people with emergencies there. People should go to/get an ambulance to the specialist COVID reception centers which have been set up at most hospitals (mostly just tents in the carpark from what I have heared) where they will get confirmation if they have it and then treated from there... My guess is in the US the same precautions will be being taken and all the COVID cases are going independently of the ER. In the UK ER's (A&E's) have been quieter than they usually are because not only are COVID cases going via a different route, time wasters are staying away from hospitals in general because there is a pandemic and all the sick are at the hospitals.

To put another viewpoint on it, Mrs 'BobFace watches a lot of YouTube because why watch TV which has tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars of investment on every episode when you can watch some guy in his basement scream at video games (if she really wanted to do that why aren't I allowed to play SC more often?? Oh yeah, we don't have a basement.) and she was watching that there Markiplier recently. Well, he had to be admitted to hospital as his crap factory went a bit wrong and he said (apologies if I misquote sllightly) "The doctors and nurses were so busy - when they came in to see me they looked almost relieaved I had a 'normal' issue and that it was not pandemic related".

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVinrKsxLME
 

Michael

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The 2019 death rate from influenza / pneumonia alone was 145 per 100,000 or roughly 1050 for the whole year.
Statistical question

Flu: is the 145/100000 per capita or per infected?

If its per capita you're comparing apples and oranges. And you should look for something like death per infected or mortality rate. (you probably know better where to look for statistics)

A big issue is that Influenza isn't tested like Covid-19. So we just have approximations.

As far as i'm aware in germany mortality rate is ~0,1 - 0,2 % (depending on influenza strain higher or lower)
for covid 19 in total its ~ 2-3% (matches your numbers) in germany its currently 1.5%.
 
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Jolly_Green_Giant

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It's an interesting question there @Jolly_Green_Giant do you know how your local area is handling cases? I know where I live here in the UK people have been told that under any circumstance they should not go to the ER with COVID as they will infect the staff and other people with emergencies there. People should go to/get an ambulance to the specialist COVID reception centers which have been set up at most hospitals (mostly just tents in the carpark from what I have heared) where they will get confirmation if they have it and then treated from there... My guess is in the US the same precautions will be being taken and all the COVID cases are going independently of the ER. In the UK ER's (A&E's) have been quieter than they usually are because not only are COVID cases going via a different route, time wasters are staying away from hospitals in general because there is a pandemic and all the sick are at the hospitals.

To put another viewpoint on it, Mrs 'BobFace watches a lot of YouTube because why watch TV which has tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars of investment on every episode when you can watch some guy in his basement scream at video games (if she really wanted to do that why aren't I allowed to play SC more often?? Oh yeah, we don't have a basement.) and she was watching that there Markiplier recently. Well, he had to be admitted to hospital as his crap factory went a bit wrong and he said (apologies if I misquote sllightly) "The doctors and nurses were so busy - when they came in to see me they looked almost relieaved I had a 'normal' issue and that it was not pandemic related".

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVinrKsxLME
Statistical question

Flu: is the 145/100000 per capita or per infected?

If its per capita you're comparing apples and oranges. And you should look for something like death per infected or mortality rate. (you probably know better where to look for statistics)

A big issue is that Influenza isn't tested like Covid-19. So we just have approximations.

As far as i'm aware in germany mortality rate is ~0,1 - 0,2 % (depending on influenza strain higher or lower)
for covid 19 in total its ~ 2-3% (matches your numbers) in germany its currently 1.5%.

Awesome, thanks for the reply, I'll see if I can bring some clarity to my thoughts, it may be a bit long but I just want to get it all out there.

Mr. @NaffNaffBobFace , my aunt is elderly and very traditional so every morning I wake up she is reading the newspaper front to back and has the local morning news playing for a couple hours. The news station is based out of Tampa, one of Florida's larger metropolitan areas. People are asked to contact their doctor via phone or video health if they believe they have COVID or are showing signs of respiratory illness. I do not know the procedure from there, I'm assuming you will self isolate and be taken care of at home unless your symptoms get worse and require emergency care. So that would mean there are people I am not seeing who have covid and are recovering at home which would be part of the 28,000 confirmed cases for the year I assume, as it doesn't specify where these patients are or how they were diagnosed.

When I recently took my ambulance ride, once I calmed down, and to help keep me calm I struck a conversation with the EMT (in an ambulance I have ran patients in myself it turns out). I am definitely curious about COVID obviously and this is what I learned: they "hardly have any covid patients" and "it is no longer protocol for us to suit up for every call, just the ones that they suspect may have covid through a screener" (they once had to go to every call with full ppe). As I felt like I was dying, I cant tell you how much I enjoyed a several minute long questionnaire from the emergency operator! So they do a very thorough screening on every call it seems so they know which precautions to take. As far as I know, there is no special covid intake center for emergency calls. They ended up taking me into a smaller ER in the area where I was taken to a room and taken care of. None of the nurses were wearing masks, only the doctor when he popped in (as they normally do, they dont spend much time hanging around patients) had a mask on. They did however put a mask on me before the doctor entered the room, which makes sense as these masks arent for the protection of those wearing them. The doctor had on what looked like a respirator so thats a bit different. EDIT: When I was being wheeled through the ER, I did not see many rooms with patients in them. Im not saying it was dead, but from what I saw it wasn't full or packed.

A previous visit to the "second busiest ER in the country" I keep talking about, due to my grandmother falling ill, this is what happened: I walked into the ER intake, or the triage area as its called and there wasnt anyone else waiting. Absolutely crazy sight as I have spent hundreds of hours in this emergency room doing clinicals for EMT / Paramedic school (just about a decade ago that is) and it has always been absolutely packed with all sorts of complaints / illnesses. We were taken through the ER to our room and I noticed the place was dead. No patients in any of the rooms I passed, and I only saw a few rooms across the way with anyone in them. Now, this isnt indicative of how many patients are there with covid currently, as they have an entire floor quarantined for covid patients. However, they do keep the patients in the ER initially. Im not sure if they stay in the ER until a lab confirms a positive test (im not sure how long a test takes in hospital) or if they get transferred to the COVID unit under suspicion. Anyways, while in my grandmothers room, I got to talking with out nurse, and the take away from him was that they have so few patients that he is there part time and they have had to lay off part of their staff. My grandmother was his only patient. He wore a mask. He said he has seen hardly any covid patients (there were no details to elaborate on that). He told me about the quarantine floor when I asked what they do with the ones that do have it. My grandmothers doctor was also a good friend of mine i worked under for years. Walked in without a mask and shook my hand in close proximity. We werent there for anything respiratory related so thats nothing out of the ordinary, but he didnt have a mask on his face or anywhere visible. The ER only allowed one close family member in as a visitor.

A previous visit to the same ER for my aunt via ambulance didnt give me too many details. As I didn't have to drive her, I didn't want to go to the hospital to visit her and risk picking up the virus. The EMT's showed up in full ppe as her questionaire hinted at her having an infection causing her to have a fever.

I have not heard any special guidance other than "call your doctor" or to call the local / state health department. Testing in most places is done by appointment only. There are many reasons why the number of patients in the ER could be so low considering the abnormal circumstances we are all now facing on a day to day basis in our lives.

I don't go out on a daily basis so I don't have the best picture of what life is like on the outside for the surface dwellers, but when I do go out, these have been my observations. Some places have signs requiring you to wear a mask, others don't. The gym doesn't require masks, neither do some restaurants. I can only guess that national chains like walmart do. I know best buy was open at 5am on black friday with lines wrapping around the parking lot, no social distancing and everyone in close proximity. When I went to eat the other day, no one in the restaurant was wearing a mask while waiting at their table and I saw everyone who walked in the door take their mask off before they sat down as they saw everyone else not wearing one, a very interesting thing to see. I felt that same feeling of not wanting to feel out of place by being the only one to wear a mask. The waitresses did wear their masks around 75% of the time. Occasionally you would see a girl with it hanging off of her ear, or another with her nose exposed. At the gas station, no one is outside their car with a mask on, which is somewhat understandable, youre not near anyone and youre outside. Going to the VA for lab work, everyone was required to wear a mask and I was given a COVID questionnaire while also being required to use hand sanitizer in the presence of an observer before entering. The staff all wore masks.

My uncle is a firefighter / paramedic in Miami-Dade county, in the inner city and runs calls to the major hospitals all the time. He too has told me that there isn't anything abnormal about the number of patients he is running or special precautions he has had to take for anyone not suspected of having covid. He has said a couple of his coworkers have however contracted the virus and were out for a couple weeks. He gets tested tri-weekly. He said jackson memorial hospital (largest hospital in miami, which takes a lot of patients in internationally as well) isn't overflowing but they do have an old hospital that is empty they have set aside as overflow incase they need it.


Ok cool, so my observations are out of the way. On to the numbers.

Listed below are the links to the data I am pulling from. State charts with almost all the numbers you could ask for and where I am personally pulling my data from.

This first link is to the flu report for the state for this week, week 47.
This is the link I am using that shows the deaths per year from Influenza / pneumonia.
These two links seem to give death counts and death rates, however I have been unable to successfully navigate them to retrieve the data I am looking for.

This is the link for the current COVID numbers in the state. You can click on each county and see whats going on in each of them. I live in Polk County, the large one in the center of the state.



@Michael

The 145 per 100K I mentioned previously was deaths per 100,000 (flu / pneumonia) as far as I'm aware, but you have the sites I was looking at to pull this data from now so I might be mistaken. I multiplied 145 by 7.24777 (724,777 being our counties population) to get 1050, which I was using as the total number of deaths specific to influenza / pneumonia in our county alone. I didn't see that data in the charts (doesn't mean it isn't there). I was using 28,000 out of 724,777 to show that just over 3% of the counties population has tested positive for COVID. It would be nice to have the numbers of infected for flu / pneumonia but it seems the weekly chart only shows percentages of lab tests that have come back positive. Im hoping one of you might want to scrub the data to be able to paint a clearer picture.

I think that about clears up my thoughts and where it has lead me. I understand I do not live in a metropolitan area and population density also plays a big role.


EDIT: Just to throw some more stuff into the mix. My little sister tested positive then tested negative within 2 days a while back and was asymptomatic. She got the test because her boyfriend works at a government building and they decided to get tested just because.

Also there's Uncle Elon:

View: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1327125840040169472

EDIT2ish:

Heres a link showing the number of patients Lakeland ER has seen relative to the rest of the countries ER's in 2018. It ranks #2. That's the ER I am saying is dead and has hardly seen any COVID patients.


EDIT3?:

I don't like other people linking me political commentary so I get it if you don't want to watch it, but this 30 minutes is a good video to watch if you want to see how all of us in the US are getting F'd in the A by our government. It shows you how the US is handling everything, it shows you whats happening to people who have zero support, it shows you what the governments priorities are right now. Spoiler alert, it's not us. If you want to know his political bias, he is a green new deal supporting progressive bernie bro.

 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Awesome, thanks for the reply, I'll see if I can bring some clarity to my thoughts, it may be a bit long but I just want to get it all out there.

Mr. @NaffNaffBobFace , my aunt is elderly and very traditional so every morning I wake up she is reading the newspaper front to back and has the local morning news playing for a couple hours. The news station is based out of Tampa, one of Florida's larger metropolitan areas. People are asked to contact their doctor via phone or video health if they believe they have COVID or are showing signs of respiratory illness. I do not know the procedure from there, I'm assuming you will self isolate and be taken care of at home unless your symptoms get worse and require emergency care. So that would mean there are people I am not seeing who have covid and are recovering at home which would be part of the 28,000 confirmed cases for the year I assume, as it doesn't specify where these patients are or how they were diagnosed.

When I recently took my ambulance ride, once I calmed down, and to help keep me calm I struck a conversation with the EMT (in an ambulance I have ran patients in myself it turns out). I am definitely curious about COVID obviously and this is what I learned: they "hardly have any covid patients" and "it is no longer protocol for us to suit up for every call, just the ones that they suspect may have covid through a screener" (they once had to go to every call with full ppe). As I felt like I was dying, I cant tell you how much I enjoyed a several minute long questionnaire from the emergency operator! So they do a very thorough screening on every call it seems so they know which precautions to take. As far as I know, there is no special covid intake center for emergency calls. They ended up taking me into a smaller ER in the area where I was taken to a room and taken care of. None of the nurses were wearing masks, only the doctor when he popped in (as they normally do, they dont spend much time hanging around patients) had a mask on. They did however put a mask on me before the doctor entered the room, which makes sense as these masks arent for the protection of those wearing them. The doctor had on what looked like a respirator so thats a bit different. EDIT: When I was being wheeled through the ER, I did not see many rooms with patients in them. Im not saying it was dead, but from what I saw it wasn't full or packed.

A previous visit to the "second busiest ER in the country" I keep talking about, due to my grandmother falling ill, this is what happened: I walked into the ER intake, or the triage area as its called and there wasnt anyone else waiting. Absolutely crazy sight as I have spent hundreds of hours in this emergency room doing clinicals for EMT / Paramedic school (just about a decade ago that is) and it has always been absolutely packed with all sorts of complaints / illnesses. We were taken through the ER to our room and I noticed the place was dead. No patients in any of the rooms I passed, and I only saw a few rooms across the way with anyone in them. Now, this isnt indicative of how many patients are there with covid currently, as they have an entire floor quarantined for covid patients. However, they do keep the patients in the ER initially. Im not sure if they stay in the ER until a lab confirms a positive test (im not sure how long a test takes in hospital) or if they get transferred to the COVID unit under suspicion. Anyways, while in my grandmothers room, I got to talking with out nurse, and the take away from him was that they have so few patients that he is there part time and they have had to lay off part of their staff. My grandmother was his only patient. He wore a mask. He said he has seen hardly any covid patients (there were no details to elaborate on that). He told me about the quarantine floor when I asked what they do with the ones that do have it. My grandmothers doctor was also a good friend of mine i worked under for years. Walked in without a mask and shook my hand in close proximity. We werent there for anything respiratory related so thats nothing out of the ordinary, but he didnt have a mask on his face or anywhere visible. The ER only allowed one close family member in as a visitor.

A previous visit to the same ER for my aunt via ambulance didnt give me too many details. As I didn't have to drive her, I didn't want to go to the hospital to visit her and risk picking up the virus. The EMT's showed up in full ppe as her questionaire hinted at her having an infection causing her to have a fever.

I have not heard any special guidance other than "call your doctor" or to call the local / state health department. Testing in most places is done by appointment only. There are many reasons why the number of patients in the ER could be so low considering the abnormal circumstances we are all now facing on a day to day basis in our lives.

I don't go out on a daily basis so I don't have the best picture of what life is like on the outside for the surface dwellers, but when I do go out, these have been my observations. Some places have signs requiring you to wear a mask, others don't. The gym doesn't require masks, neither do some restaurants. I can only guess that national chains like walmart do. I know best buy was open at 5am on black friday with lines wrapping around the parking lot, no social distancing and everyone in close proximity. When I went to eat the other day, no one in the restaurant was wearing a mask while waiting at their table and I saw everyone who walked in the door take their mask off before they sat down as they saw everyone else not wearing one, a very interesting thing to see. I felt that same feeling of not wanting to feel out of place by being the only one to wear a mask. The waitresses did wear their masks around 75% of the time. Occasionally you would see a girl with it hanging off of her ear, or another with her nose exposed. At the gas station, no one is outside their car with a mask on, which is somewhat understandable, youre not near anyone and youre outside. Going to the VA for lab work, everyone was required to wear a mask and I was given a COVID questionnaire while also being required to use hand sanitizer in the presence of an observer before entering. The staff all wore masks.

My uncle is a firefighter / paramedic in Miami-Dade county, in the inner city and runs calls to the major hospitals all the time. He too has told me that there isn't anything abnormal about the number of patients he is running or special precautions he has had to take for anyone not suspected of having covid. He has said a couple of his coworkers have however contracted the virus and were out for a couple weeks. He gets tested tri-weekly. He said jackson memorial hospital (largest hospital in miami, which takes a lot of patients in internationally as well) isn't overflowing but they do have an old hospital that is empty they have set aside as overflow incase they need it.


Ok cool, so my observations are out of the way. On to the numbers.

Listed below are the links to the data I am pulling from. State charts with almost all the numbers you could ask for and where I am personally pulling my data from.

This first link is to the flu report for the state for this week, week 47.


This is the link I am using that shows the deaths per year from Influenza / pneumonia.


These two links seem to give death counts and death rates, however I have been unable to successfully navigate them to retrieve the data I am looking for.





This is the link for the current COVID numbers in the state. You can click on each county and see whats going on in each of them. I live in Polk County, the large one in the center of the state.





@Michael

The 145 per 100K I mentioned previously was deaths per 100,000 (flu / pneumonia) as far as I'm aware, but you have the sites I was looking at to pull this data from now so I might be mistaken. I multiplied 145 by 7.24777 (724,777 being our counties population) to get 1050, which I was using as the total number of deaths specific to influenza / pneumonia in our county alone. I didn't see that data in the charts (doesn't mean it isn't there). I was using 28,000 out of 724,777 to show that just over 3% of the counties population has tested positive for COVID. It would be nice to have the numbers of infected for flu / pneumonia but it seems the weekly chart only shows percentages of lab tests that have come back positive. Im hoping one of you might want to scrub the data to be able to paint a clearer picture.

I think that about clears up my thoughts and where it has lead me. I understand I do not live in a metropolitan area and population density also plays a big role.


EDIT: Just to throw some more stuff into the mix. My little sister tested positive then tested negative within 2 days a while back and was asymptomatic. She got the test because her boyfriend works at a government building and they decided to get tested just because.

Also there's Uncle Elon:

View: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1327125840040169472

EDIT2ish:

Heres a link showing the number of patients Lakeland ER has seen relative to the rest of the countries ER's in 2018. It ranks #2. That's the ER I am saying is dead and has hardly seen any COVID patients.




EDIT3?:

I don't like other people linking me political commentary so I get it if you don't want to watch it, but this 30 minutes is a good video to watch if you want to see how all of us in the US are getting F'd in the A by our government. It shows you how the US is handling everything, it shows you whats happening to people who have zero support, it shows you what the governments priorities are right now. Spoiler alert, it's not us. If you want to know his political bias, he is a green new deal supporting progressive bernie bro.

Thanks for the clarification and your experiences - I've had a bit of a think and I've gotta say, I don't know how to explain your experience. I know better than to tell you that's not what you have experienced, because it is what you have experienced, not sure if someone closer to the States can uncover the facts of the matter?

I did find some interesting looking articles on there being little 'Flu about this season, however they were mostly behind paywalls - seemingly they said the COVID restrictions we have all been observing have helped manage it better this year. I had my own thoughts on that, in it being a respiratory illness and in my mind if there is a virus out there infecting people off people who are likely to succumb to 'Flu, it's had them before the 'Flu could. Unclear if a COVID reaction would set off 'Flu antibodies too...? Unknowns, they be abound.

I can kind of explain Elon Musks expiriance with the test, in that he appears to have used a Rapid Lateral Flow test...? Not sure about that, but I do know rapid tests can be about 80% accurate and some are as low as 50% accurate - which would match his 50% negative 50% positive test results, some tests really are no better than guessing at a 'Yes' or a 'No'. In so far as it being bogus I don't know, but I can say suggesting a known less accurate rapid test is suspicious is non, non heinous. (Bill and Ted reference for you there).

Even the most accurate tests that take days in a lab to get a result have a 5% error rate - the virus is just so new we don't have a perfect way of detecting it yet - and we can only use what we got.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Monday 7th of December:

- World: 67,250,219 confirmed cases and 1,539,559 confirmed deaths.

- World: Passes 67 million cases, we passed 66 million on Saturday meaning 1 million more cases in the last 2/3 days.

- US: Trumps Lawyer Rudi Giuliani tests positive for COVID-19.

- US: Large parts of the country see strengthening restrictions.

- US: Bar owner who objected to restrictions and a closure order struck a police officer with his vehicle while fleeing arrest.

- Europe: Multiple countries reinstate tough restrictions as cases climb.

- Turkey: Sees record high new daily deaths.

- China/World: Chinese people see higher instances of racism both online and in reality following emergence of COVID-19.

- Portugal: Restaurants and most shops stayed closed by 3pm today, as tomorrow is a national holiday and the risk of crowds and spreading the virus was deemed too high. This also happened for the previous national holiday on December 1st.

- UK: Nurses warn not to miss second vaccine dose of the new two-part inoculations. Immunity starts building from day one, but does not reach full potency until 7 days after the second injection.

- UK: Veteran who has played the Last Post every night since March 29th (the day after the UK's first lock-down) to pay tribute to that days COVID victims, with live streams which have helped him raise £9,000 for his local hospital, to continue until December 31st at which point he hopes to be joined in the last post by multiple bugle players, and then solo with "no more parades".
 

Jolly_Green_Giant

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Thanks for the clarification and your experiences - I've had a bit of a think and I've gotta say, I don't know how to explain your experience. I know better than to tell you that's not what you have experienced, because it is what you have experienced, not sure if someone closer to the States can uncover the facts of the matter?

I did find some interesting looking articles on there being little 'Flu about this season, however they were mostly behind paywalls - seemingly they said the COVID restrictions we have all been observing have helped manage it better this year. I had my own thoughts on that, in it being a respiratory illness and in my mind if there is a virus out there infecting people off people who are likely to succumb to 'Flu, it's had them before the 'Flu could. Unclear if a COVID reaction would set off 'Flu antibodies too...? Unknowns, they be abound.

I can kind of explain Elon Musks expiriance with the test, in that he appears to have used a Rapid Lateral Flow test...? Not sure about that, but I do know rapid tests can be about 80% accurate and some are as low as 50% accurate - which would match his 50% negative 50% positive test results, some tests really are no better than guessing at a 'Yes' or a 'No'. In so far as it being bogus I don't know, but I can say suggesting a known less accurate rapid test is suspicious is non, non heinous. (Bill and Ted reference for you there).

Even the most accurate tests that take days in a lab to get a result have a 5% error rate - the virus is just so new we don't have a perfect way of detecting it yet - and we can only use what we got.
Strange things are afoot at the Circle K... Most heinous indeed.

I must say though that this is a most excellent reply.

Party on dude!
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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Strange things are afoot at the Circle K... Most heinous indeed.

I must say though that this is a most excellent reply.

Party on dude!
A most triumphant response!
 

ColdDog

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That is the point of a Lockdown, Colddog. I believe we have discussed this before
Yes, we have, and you have a thick head (joking). Look, lockdowns are like herding cattle, I know the UK does not have many people with 10s of thousands of acres as grazing land... but watch youtube... humans are cattle with the ability to find their way out of a situation... herding cats is probably better than humans at this point. People are going to start getting pissed, because it is not science, it is politics at this point.

Death is death... I made my peace 17 years ago in Afghanistan... so I guess I am jaded at your mentality. People die, it is what we do, we live to 70 or 100 and then kick the bucket. To my knowledge, no one other than Abraham lived 205 years (if you subscribe to that). So, truth hurts, sooner you understand, sooner you will become whole. If you want to blame someone, some country, blame China.

Economics is a function of how much panic (uncertainty) you induce into a system. It is in the interest of rational people not to panic.
 
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Montoya

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Death is death... I made my peace 17 years ago in Afghanistan... so I guess I am jaded at your mentality.
"I enjoy driving fast, no suggestions about speed limits are important to me. If I crash and die in an accident with another vehicle, they should feel like I do. Its better to live your life the way you want, without rules. If I kill somebody, they should accept that people die anyway."
 
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