Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

[GPcustoms]

Don't mind me chimming in gang but

I'm guessing it's going to look a bit like this:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCdRFMp8Xwo

I must be as mad as my associates claim but Im not losing any sleep over the matter.
Im one of those!!!...A cancer patient who along with the BMT has no real immunity to much of anything. Everything can make me ill right down to the food I eat but somehow I have avoided the sky falling and drama of the headless chicken littles running a muck blaming each other for the situation we are all in.

Yes I took the vaccine but only because of recommendations from my medical team.

The wife (boss) runs multiple medical practices and labs so I get plenty of intel from sources I trust and with all honesty I just practice a strict hygiene protocol and wear my masks as conditions dictate knowing they are not a fire wall many think they are. Just a tool that can assist is all and its up to the individual to decide on the threat level and precautions they want to engage. Masking is soooooo civillian...but who is going to want to go around in a Bio/Chem M.O.P. 4 (N.B.C)suite?.....Thats about the only for sure way you are going to isolate yourself from the outside thing called "world".

Each of you simply need to make decisions that match your own needs. I can't tell you nor will I bully you to wear or not wear,...Vaxx or not vaxx....But if I am lucky enough that the world is thrown into a reboot and 28 days comes my way then I shall make the best of my daily zombie hunts each and every day

Should we stumble upon each other in the Apocalypse I suggest you call out the phrase "Montoya TEST" when you reach my A.O. so I don't add you to my pyre.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Should we stumble upon each other in the Apocalypse I suggest you call out the phrase "Montoya TEST" when you reach my A.O. so I don't add you to my pyre.

My cry right now is "For the GLORY of TEST!" and long may it remain so, through the fair times and the foul

Apologies if my original comment was weird, it was intended as satire in regard to the ridiculousness of the situation.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Saturday 24th of July:

- World: 193,165,622 confirmed cases and 4,143,105 confirmed deaths.

- UK: Health Secretary announces he has made a full recovery from COVID-19. Puts mildness of symptoms down to being fully vaccinated.

- UK: Politicians and other officials such as the Mayor of London ask Prime Minister to bring planned changes to self isolation rules which would end the requirement for double vaccinated persons to isolate if they'd been in contact with a confirmed case forward from August, to free up staff trapped in the 'pingdemic' which

- UK: More key workers including police, fire and transport included in scheme where if pinged to alert them they have been in the presence of a confirmed case, they need not self isolate, only take daily tests.

- UK: Under 30's appear to be displaying higher degree of vaccine hesitancy than the rest of the population, with only between 50% and 60% having had at least one dose.

- Australia: More lockdown protests occur in cities across the country resulting in arrests.

- Italy: Protests occur as government announces restrictions that will apply to unvaccinated persons only.

- Libya: Increases pace of vaccination campaign in capital city: “The campaign will continue until all the available doses are used”

- Algeria: Announces it will make Sinovac vaccine domestically.

- Russia/Cuba: Russia sends 88 tonnes of aid to Cuba: “On the instructions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, military transport aircraft are delivering humanitarian aid to the Republic of Cuba”

- Tanzania: Receives first shipment of 1 million J&J vaccine doses.

- Malaysia: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Vietnam: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Tunisia: Sees record high new daily deaths.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Interesting article here:

Reinfection risk of delta may be 46% higher than Alpha varient:

PHE upgrade Delta variant’s risk level due to reinfection risk

Risk of reinfection with Delta may be 46% greater than with the Alpha variant, national testing data finds

www.theguardian.com

 

[GPcustoms]

My cry right now is "For the GLORY of TEST!" and long may it remain so, through the fair times and the foul

Apologies if my original comment was weird, it was intended as satire in regard to the ridiculousness of the situation.

The world is weird,...certainly not you demented space mutants Saw this cartoon the other day...reminds me of myself except it does not show my foil hat and razor ribbon A.O.

 

[Vavrik]

Apparently, the Delta variant is imparting something on the order of 1000 times the viral load of the original strain.
That explains a lot about how and why it's spreading.

 

[Radegast74]

Apparently, the Delta variant is imparting something on the order of 1000 times the viral load of the original strain.
That explains a lot about how and why it's spreading.

And check out how it is spreading! From the first link in my signature https://radegast74.shinyapps.io/covid-19_trend/
This is the NYTimes compilation of the USA data (I haven't updated my second link with the international data, that is broken)...check out the number of cases in Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana! In these states (and likely other vaccine "hesitant" areas) COVID Cases are either as high or HIGHER than they were a year ago (BEFORE WE EVEN HAD A VACCINE!) ... sheesh...

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Sunday 25th of July:

- World: 193,979,302 confirmed cases and 4,156,401 confirmed deaths.

- Therapeutics: Pfizer Group President tells a summit they are working on a pill to treat COVID-19 infection: "this is going to be a treatment that is, if you develop Covid or you have symptoms of Covid you can then quickly take a pill to resolve those symptoms. "

- UK: Reports arise hospitals are seeing increasing numbers of seriously sick COVID patents who are under the age of 30. “We are seeing patients in their 30s, or even in their 20s, who are fit and have no other medical problems on ICU (intensive care units). As an ICU doctor I am begging you to have the vaccine, please don’t let not having the jab become the biggest mistake of your life.” Concerns are also raised over the spectre of Long COVID and permanent health issues, with Delta being stressed as being something which isn't just an issue for the older part of the population.

- UK: Pingdemic of people who have been in the presence of a COVID infection who have to self isolate to break the chain of infection continues to effect staffing in the food chain with the effect on supermarkets being rolling shortages on the shelves, with industry heads saying it is apparent the government doesn't know how the food chain works with domino effects and one segment effecting many others, that it appears the response is an 'on the hoof' and 'chaotic' ad-lib set of measures and that "It's quite obvious that the government is having an argument with itself ".

- UK: Health Minister tweets the country should not "cower" from the virus, drawing criticism from all quarters as it didn't take into account those who'd died, those who continue to have to isolate and those who are being actively infected and administered to hospital right now. They issued an apology however critics indicate this may have revealed intentions not to protect the population from a public health crisis, but to expose them to it.

- UK: A speech at a vaccination protest by a nurse who had been struck off (permanently sacked from the profession of nursing) last month, drew strong criticism today after a video of them addressing a crowd came to light where they compared medical staff battling the pandemic to the post-WW2 Nazi hunt: "At the Nuremberg trials, the doctors and nurses stood trial and they hung."

- US: Dr. Fauci indicates Boosters will likely be required for immunocompromised persons in the country, however points out it's an evolving situation and things may change in either direction.

- Tunisia: Sees lockdown demonstrations turn violent in multiple cities.

- Malaysia: Passes 1 million total confirmed cases.

- South Korea: Strengthens social distancing rules.

 

[Bambooza]

And check out how it is spreading! From the first link in my signature https://radegast74.shinyapps.io/covid-19_trend/
This is the NYTimes compilation of the USA data (I haven't updated my second link with the international data, that is broken)...check out the number of cases in Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana! In these states (and likely other vaccine "hesitant" areas) COVID Cases are either as high or HIGHER than they were a year ago (BEFORE WE EVEN HAD A VACCINE!) ... sheesh...

View attachment 21089

View attachment 21090

View attachment 21091

I know there is a trend to look only at the trend of the new cases to support one desired result but it's starting to really show the lack of any sort of rational thought process.
Even this graph by the New York times is attempting to show a huge jump in the number of reported cases and project a steep expected continue to rise that the data so far hasn't shown when both looking at raw data and the one published by worldometers.info.

There was a jump around July that looks to already be tapering off. Given there is typically a 30-day rise in infections before we see the rise in the number of deaths it's still too early to see if there will be the expected jump in daily deaths.

Two other aspects that need to be taken into consideration is the fact that currently even with the delta variant the death rate is still hovering around 2.0% of total infections. When you start to break it down by age it's very clear how it importantly impacts those over the age of 65 (delta variant seems to be holding true to this trend)

Total deaths by age group for the state of Alabama

Total infections by age group for the state of Alabama

While it is still far too early to tell I am wondering if we will see as big of a matching jump in daily deaths we have seen with prior or if we will start to see the total percent starting to drop off as those in the high-risk group have either already been infected or have been vaccinated and that the current jump in new infection is in the low-risk group thus will produce a lower hospitalization/death percent per infection. Either way, we can expect to see the results in two more weeks.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Monday 26th of July:

- World: 194,478,235 confirmed cases and 4,163,622 confirmed cases.

- US: Officials see uplift in vaccinations as Delta makes its presence felt: "We would like to see much more but we are seeing it start to trend up a little bit and we are hearing from people that this has gotten their attention,"

I know there is a trend to look only at the trend of the new cases to support one desired result but it's starting to really show the lack of any sort of rational thought process.

- UK: New daily cases down for 6th day in a row at 24,950 prompting hopes peak has passed, however scientists point out it has not been long enough since "freedom day" for the impact of completely unlocking to be felt and the number of people in hospital is up another 1,117 on last week, however new deaily deaths are down five on last week to 14...?

- Tunisia: Celebrations in the streets as President sacks the government and Prime Minister over handling of COVID crisis but others accuse them of a Coup.

- Senegal: Hospitals are "...overwhelmed and close to saturation, with almost 99 percent of beds occupied in Dakar,”

- Thailand: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Ireland: Eases restrictions on restaurants, pubs and cafes.

- China: Sees highest new daily cases since January.

- VIetnam: Ho Chi Minh City implements strict curfew.

 

[Bambooza]

- UK: New daily cases down for 6th day in a row at 24,950 prompting hopes peak has passed, however scientists point out it has not been long enough since "freedom day" for the impact of completely unlocking to be felt and the number of people in hospital is up another 1,117 on last week, however new deaily deaths are down five on last week to 14...?

It's all good. The issue is there is not enough testing to truly know how much of the population is infected or be able to show any sort of meaningful trends which is why the death count while averaging a 30 day lag from initial infection is a better metric and even then its questionable accuracy when compared against year over year total deaths.

Here is Alabama's 7-day average amount of new cases divided by the 7 day average new tests reported each day which is a good indication of the percent positive trends overall tests administered.

Total daily tests performed in Alabama.

Understanding Percent Positivity | Public Health Madison & Dane County

publichealthmdc.com

Dashboard | Public Health Madison & Dane County

publichealthmdc.com

TLDR; of the above links is the higher the positive percent the less accurate the new case counts are as there are not enough tests being performed. While it's still not the best metric as there are a number of places that require daily testing and thus inflate the numbers while those who are sick and not requiring treatment are opting to self-quarantine without taking a test it's still the CDC's request to try and get all state testing to a 5% average positive test (Test over Test not Test over person or person over person). In past flu seasons, it was the metric used to verify the sample size was large enough to use for predicting how much of the population was infected.

 

[Vavrik]

This data is a week old (July 18th). Alabama's current graph (as of yesterday morning). Red line points to the 18th.

That is showing the number of cases doubled in a week.

 

[Bambooza]

This data is a week old (July 18th). Alabama's current graph (as of yesterday morning). Red line points to the 18th.
View attachment 21106

That is showing the number of cases doubled in a week.

Yes, I try to stay away from the current numbers as they are typically in flux. The other thing to take into consideration is the numbers are small as such doubling from 1 to 2 is not hard to do or in this case 20 to 40. But either way, the point I was attempting to make was not about the numbers themselves or that there seems to be a rising number of cases in Alabama, but on the usage of a daily case when there are not enough tests performed to get a suitable test size which has been a medical standard of 5% positive test cases. Other metrics that would be more standardized and valid would be the number of hospital covid patients admitted or covid related deaths.

 

[CitizenDad]

I know, I know it's CNN (even as a card carrying member of the Democratic party I try to avoid most things CNN these days) but checkout this Super Spreader Event that dumbass Donald and company threw:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMFOpMOMshE



Daisy and I are just over America. Over our stupid family. Over our stupid friends. Over our near worthless local, state, and fed govs. Today we are starting the process to see if we can possibly leave the United States, maybe join @Montoya up north in BC. The USA is just not a nation of science and sanity but one of complete insanity and absolute stupidity, at every level. It would be one thing if at least I could vaccinate my kids and send them to school with all the other kids being vaccinated. But nope, not happening for whatever reason. I just don't get it. Maybe I'm dumb.

Me IRL RN After watching this video of all these wackos:

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - reports around the world from today, Tuesday27th of July:

- World: 195,044,979 confirmed cases and 4,173,104 confirmed deaths.

- UK: Prime Minister refrains from announcing victory over the current wave as new daily cases fall for 7th day in a row to 23,511 with the Government saying current scientific advice for the cause... is that science can't explain what's causing it at the moment...

- UK: The governments Cabinet Office minister brands people who refuse vaccination as "Selfish". They may have a point, however it is also worth noting when they recently returned from holiday in Portugal and were pinged by the Track and Trace system saying they had been in the presence of a confirmed case, they selfishly refused to self isolate like everyone else and took part in a mysterious pilot project which allowed them to continue as normal but take a daily lateral flow test, the same system the Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer had to refrain from partaking of only a week or two ago.

- UK: Report indicates during the first wave the vulnerable advised to shield were 8 times more likely to catch COVID and 5 times more likely to die from it.

- US: Reports emerge CDC is expected to recommend mask wearing indoors for even fully vaccinated persons where cases are surging.

- Algiers: Converts hotel into COVID hospital as medical facilities struggle.

- Tunisia: President tightens COVID restrictions following the sacking of the Government and prime minister.

- Italy: Data reveals since February just short of 99% of COVID deaths have been in the unvaccinated.

- Iran: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Ireland: To open vaccination to those aged 12 to 15 years of age.

- Japan: Tokyo (Olympic host city) sees record high new daily cases.

- Australia: Greater Sydney area extends lockdown restrictions for 4 more weeks.

 

[Vavrik]

Yes, I try to stay away from the current numbers as they are typically in flux. The other thing to take into consideration is the numbers are small as such doubling from 1 to 2 is not hard to do or in this case 20 to 40. But either way, the point I was attempting to make was not about the numbers themselves or that there seems to be a rising number of cases in Alabama, but on the usage of a daily case when there are not enough tests performed to get a suitable test size which has been a medical standard of 5% positive test cases. Other metrics that would be more standardized and valid would be the number of hospital covid patients admitted or covid related deaths.

In fact, the number reported in that chart are the current (within 24 hours usually) official numbers for that state, as reported by the state. The numbers can, and do fluctuate but that is either added or subtracted from the day the addition or subtraction is made. You'll see days that spike high or low when that occurs. There is a delay, the raw data is being reported by hospitals to regional bodies (eg County) and the state reports daily - even if hospital staff are overwhelmed. There are a few states that report every 2 days. That does not affect the 7 day moving average except as a little change in the slope of a line drawn between two consecutive readings (kind of part of the reason to use a 7 day moving average).

Generally everyone who is counted by the state has had a positive test.

The charts do not show individual counts, i.e. 1 person, 10 people, etc.. They are per 100,000 population so 40 means 40 people per 100,000 individuals. Multiply appropriately to get the total count/state. Generally the rate per 100, 1000, 10000 or 100,000 is used as it gives a simple means to compare one population with another.

 

[Bambooza]

I know, I know it's CNN (even as a card carrying member of the Democratic party I try to avoid most things CNN these days) but checkout this Super Spreader Event that dumbass Donald and company threw:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMFOpMOMshE

Well, that's one way to speed up infecting and herd immunity has the added bonus of strengthening the population by culling the weak. And honestly, it's expected behavior. We have been seeing similar behavior with gay pride events, with protests, with parties, and celebrations with political leaders telling their constituents to stay home while going out to parties themselves. We are seeing another divide amongst the tribes and it's honestly not just a USA thing. We are seeing Protests in Brazil over the feeling that the leadership of Bolsonaro for dismissing the severity of Covid and opposing masks. There are protests in London in regards to vaccine passports. Sydney had an anti-lockdown protest. Russia had an anti-lockdown protest. France protesters reject virus passports and vaccine mandates. And the list goes on.

I don't think all is lost, while some will need to get sick first before acquiring their immunity on a whole the population immunity level is rising to this novel strain, as Covid has been around for a long time and is not going anywhere. As for people, on a whole are very keen on forcing others to abide by our common sense while being very resistant to abiding by other people's common sense.

 

[Bambooza]

In fact, the number reported in that chart are the current (within 24 hours usually) official numbers for that state, as reported by the state. The numbers can, and do fluctuate but that is either added or subtracted from the day the addition or subtraction is made.

Not always, depending on the government they sometimes revise data or they can also report as you mentioned a single day even without specifying when those cases and deaths occurred. NYTimes talks about this in their faq (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/about-coronavirus-data-maps.html)

You'll see days that spike high or low when that occurs. There is a delay, the raw data is being reported by hospitals to regional bodies (eg County) and the state reports daily - even if hospital staff are overwhelmed.

For those who update the current day's totals instead of modifying past days' data. Other changes can be reclassification (not something seen much anymore) or removal of duplicates/ correcting jurisdictions.

New York Times

• Declining Counts

In some cases, the number of cases or deaths for a state or county will decline. This can occur when a state or county corrects an error in the number of cases or deaths they've reported in the past, or when a state moves cases from one county to another. When we are able, we will historically revise counts for all impacted dates. In other cases, this will be reflected in a single-day drop in the number of cases or deaths.

There are a few states that report every 2 days. That does not affect the 7 day moving average except as a little change in the slope of a line drawn between two consecutive readings (kind of part of the reason to use a 7 day moving average).

Generally everyone who is counted by the state has had a positive test.

I would be careful here. Lots of the data is not per person or case but per test and some individuals are given multiple tests. New York Times uses according to their published data a per case count

Confirmed cases are counts of individuals whose coronavirus infections were confirmed by a laboratory test and reported by a federal, state, territorial or local government agency. Only tests that detect viral RNA in a sample are considered confirmatory. These are often called molecular or RT-PCR tests.

The charts do not show individual counts, i.e. 1 person, 10 people, etc.. They are per 100,000 population so 40 means 40 people per 100,000 individuals. Multiply appropriately to get the total count/state. Generally the rate per 100, 1000, 10000 or 100,000 is used as it gives a simple means to compare one population with another.

In this case, Alabama's numbers are small enough that it's a direct count mapped to the graph and not a multiple of the population. But you are right in a number of the charts it's not the direct count but a percent of the population for direct comparison.

covid-19-data/README.md at master · nytimes/covid-19-data

A repository of data on coronavirus cases and deaths in the U.S. - nytimes/covid-19-data

github.com

 

[Vavrik]

Not always, depending on the government they sometimes revise data or they can also report as you mentioned a single day even without specifying when those cases and deaths occurred. NYTimes talks about this in their faq (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/about-coronavirus-data-maps.html)

I'm not using NY Times, because it is behind a paywall for me, and their news feeds that I can't get via other means are seldom relevant to me. But there is a reason I say things like "usually" and "generally". In this case, there are 50 states, plus other entities reporting as part of the US, and without a centralized standard way of reporting, so they are all doing their best within their leadership's interpretation of the requirements. You can read whatever you like into that sentence.

But, something that should never be done is to erase data that was previously recorded - even if it was caused by a typo. You should always record a correction on the date of the correction, and not by modifying previously entered data. The reason for this is that modifying previous records after submission causes a loss of confidence in the entire dataset. NY Times can do as they please, they are a reporting engine, not a statistical engine - that responsibility belongs to the states.

In the chart I posted, the numbers are per 100,000. (32.5 per 100,000) That translates to 1592 new cases per day over the entire population (population is about 4,903,000 people).

Everything below here is just speculation of what could happen.

Check in a week to see if 3,000/day hasn't been broken. *6000 and 12000 would therefore be givens over the following two weeks, and 24,000 per day is in the deck waiting to be dealt.

*6000 per day would smash the previous record for the State.

 

[Bambooza]

I'm not using NY Times, because it is behind a paywall for me, and their news feeds that I can't get via other means are seldom relevant to me. But there is a reason I say things like "usually" and "generally". In this case, there are 50 states, plus other entities reporting as part of the US, and without a centralized standard way of reporting, so they are all doing their best within their leadership's interpretation of the requirements. You can read whatever you like into that sentence.

Indeed even though the paywall feature of NY TImes is easily circumvented by just stopping the page from fully loading.

But, something that should never be done is to erase data that was previously recorded - even if it was caused by a typo. You should always record a correction on the date of the correction, and not by modifying previously entered data. The reason for this is that modifying previous records after submission causes a loss of confidence in the entire dataset. NY Times can do as they please, they are a reporting engine, not a statistical engine - that responsibility belongs to the states.

I agree with you that data once published should be amended and not altered. Even taxes are amended and both the original and adjusted are kept on record. But unfortunately, this doesn't seem to be the case with data sets even data released by state actors.

As for the data I look at aggregate data sources like https://covidtracking.com/data and https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data and then audit it back to source materials like CDC, John Hopkins, and other publicly available data sources. But is the change of previously published data sets that has me no longer looking at the current trends but generally a week or two behind. But even still the data is a mess. There are some who only report the number of tests taken with no indication of how many persons/cases it tries to. Others combine both positive and possible positive cases together. So it makes it very hard to compare one state to another or one country to another beyond general trends in the reported data.

In the chart I posted, the numbers are per 100,000. (32.5 per 100,000) That translates to 1592 new cases per day over the entire population (population is about 4,903,000 people).

It's the same numbers, just in my graphs they are using the whole counts instead of per unit.

Everything below here is just speculation of what could happen.

Check in a week to see if 3,000/day hasn't been broken. *6000 and 12000 would therefore be givens over the following two weeks, and 24,000 per day is in the deck waiting to be dealt.

*6000 per day would smash the previous record for the State.

Sounds good. I have a feeling it will not get above 3k new cases per day.