SoloFlyer
Grand Admiral
And don't forget to thumbtack em to the headboard so you don't forget em, right in the middle so they're less likely to fall
Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread
- Thread starter Jolly_Green_Giant
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- coronavirus virus wuflu
Source: https://google.com/covid19-map/?hl=en
I just noticed this from google's main page for Covid-19 What is up with these numbers for the UK.
Then after that i took a closer look at the U.S's numbers for deaths via Covid-19 and its a 44% death rate currently for the recovered VS. Deaths(not the total number)
7082+4075=11157
4075/11157=.3652
.3652x100= 36.52% deaths out of everyone who died or recovered from this point thats a scary number.
I just noticed this from google's main page for Covid-19 What is up with these numbers for the UK.
| 25,150 | 135 | 1,808 |
Then after that i took a closer look at the U.S's numbers for deaths via Covid-19 and its a 44% death rate currently for the recovered VS. Deaths(not the total number)
7082+4075=11157
4075/11157=.3652
.3652x100= 36.52% deaths out of everyone who died or recovered from this point thats a scary number.
| 189,445 | 7,082 | 4,075 |
Radegast74
Space Marshal
Wow, 800 deaths on Tuesday (yesterday)!
For comparison, that is like crashing 2 or 3 airliners in day! Imagine how differently we would all be reacting to that...and how upset people would be if a large number of firefighters, paramedics (and nurses and doctors) died responding to the crashes because they didn't have the necessary equipment...
Now, just imagine waking up tomorrow and hearing that 2-3 airliners crashed again...and then the next day, maybe 3-4 airliners crashed...now, imagine that for the next 30 - 45 days, and that is what this pandemic is.
For comparison, that is like crashing 2 or 3 airliners in day! Imagine how differently we would all be reacting to that...and how upset people would be if a large number of firefighters, paramedics (and nurses and doctors) died responding to the crashes because they didn't have the necessary equipment...
Now, just imagine waking up tomorrow and hearing that 2-3 airliners crashed again...and then the next day, maybe 3-4 airliners crashed...now, imagine that for the next 30 - 45 days, and that is what this pandemic is.
That's only shocking because it's so rare. But when you compare it to the daily deaths from other causes in the US you see its a small percent. Look at the larger killers like Heart Disease, Cancer, Accidents and notice that we ignore them as a society. We know we should take better care of ourselves, eat right and drink more water but we still go about our daily lives living like we are mostly bulletproof. It's not until something unusual like a plane crash or a new virus to cause us to panic about how frail our lives are, not to say all of us as there are those of us who live with constant reminders of how short and precious life is. So no I am not saying to not be careful and take the extra precautions to keep your friends and love ones safe.
But at the same time remember to live to turn off the news and remember you are still alive. Yes people are dying from a new cause and it's scary but people have been dieing since there were people. We will get through this and the sun will continue to rise and set. Just make sure to find time to relax to laugh to love to enjoy all the blessings.
Radegast74
Space Marshal
I think the difference is that these are *excess* deaths on top of who would have died on any given day. Don't forget a certain percentage of those dying are healthcare workers putting their lives on the line ... I just read this surgeon's obit, yeah "he was old" but he still was seeing patients (that's how he got it) and he still had a lot to give:
And on top of that, the vast majority of deaths likely *could* have been prevented if leaders had actually tried to "lead" as opposed to wonder what was best for the economy, stock market numbers, etc.
Bingo!
The stupid talking heads in the media who keep saying "but the normal flu killed 32,000 last year!" are ignoring the fact that the normal flu will still kill 12k-60k this year, and this COVID-19 will kill an additional 100k on top of that!
Todays UK update, another marked increase in fatalities and a noticeable increase in confirmed infections too. The cautious optimism seems to have been toned down in the face of this and the UK's youngest death to the Virus being a 13 year old who had no previous medical issues.
29,474 total now confirmed, of those confirmed cases 2,352 have died, an increase of 563 in 24 hours.
A closer look at the orange line:
A closer look at the blue line:
The curve 'aint been flattened yet and the debt in terms of deaths to cases is well and truly being called in now. With an incubation period of 5 days to 14 days it's going to be a while before we see the effects of the social distancing rules.
Stay inside people or this'll be months, not weeks.
29,474 total now confirmed, of those confirmed cases 2,352 have died, an increase of 563 in 24 hours.
A closer look at the orange line:
A closer look at the blue line:
The curve 'aint been flattened yet and the debt in terms of deaths to cases is well and truly being called in now. With an incubation period of 5 days to 14 days it's going to be a while before we see the effects of the social distancing rules.
Stay inside people or this'll be months, not weeks.
I agree there will be deaths that could have and should have been prevented. But that also holds true for many causes of death especially accidental. The medical workers are truly heroes and not just during this time as they deal with putting their lives in danger all too often on far to little sleep.
Government leaders are in a hard position as they can only lead people where the majority want to go. People, for the most part, are going to do what they want to do and laws or rules be damned. One has to look no further than most roads to see rules that were put in place for the most part to protect them and other drivers be ignored because it's inconvenient. And worrying about jobs and the economy is important, one only needs to look at the books of history to see where economic collapse leads to social unrest and famine. There is a balance between everyone doing nothing and keeping their distance and partying on like COVID-19 is nothing. Where that balance is no one can tell us because we can't load the game from a save point and try all of the options. Could the Government done better, most likely but it could have also done far worse. As I said earlier it's going to be interesting to see the studies that come out of this and hopefully, the lessons learned will be applied to the next pandemic.
We will have to wait until the numbers are tallied to know for sure but I would expect to see a slight dip in other forms of death at places where the medical facilities were not maxed out capacity due to COVID-19 cases. This is not to say we will not see a rise in the total deaths from those who end up dying from COVID-19 as its not a 1 for 1 trade. But its also true that a percentage of those who end up dying to COVID-19 would have just as easily died to any other cause including influenza. I would wager we will see less than a 1% uptick over the mean average yearly deaths after factoring in the yearly increase.
I think a big part of the problem is also that the deaths are occuring in increased volume in a very short period of time. Yesterday the UK had 500+ additional bodies to have to find a place for - I believe it was in italy where they ran out of room in the morgues.
But further to that it's those who are severely sick with the virus but not dead also effecting the system: look at Italy and how quickly it's healthcare system was overwhelmed with the sick. At that point it's not only the COVID-19 victims dying as treatment cannot be administered in a timely manner, it is also other healthcare users as they cannot be attended to efficiently either: accident victims, long term sickness, sudden illness, it's a lot more being effected than just the victims of the virus.
The knock on consequences and indirect death rate are going to be higher and felt for way longer than the duration of the Pandemic even if your healthcare system does not get overwhelmed. Scotland has suspended all cancer screening, for example. A few people who may have had the condition detected early and treated successfully may now not get that chance.
Coronavirus in Scotland: Cancer screening programmes paused
The Scottish government said the decision had been "difficult" but was essential due to Covid-19.
www.bbc.co.uk
I totally agree on the knock-on effects once the medical system reaches over its max capacity is going to cause a temporary upswing which is why attempting to flatten the curve is a good thing. How effective the current measures are and if there were other ways to accomplish the same result without a significant impact on the economy should be investigated. Its never been my stance that this is not serious, as it is. Just we have to be careful about overreacting and panicking and sometimes we just need to step back take a deep breath to realize we are still alive and healthy before continuing the course. I do not know if the current action is the best but its the best we have right now for the situation we find ourselves in and truthfully it's still amazing that so many have complied and are even capably of complying.I think a big part of the problem is also that the deaths are occuring in increased volume in a very short period of time. Yesterday the UK had 500+ additional bodies to have to find a place for - I believe it was in italy where they ran out of room in the morgues.
But further to that it's those who are severely sick with the virus but not dead also effecting the system: look at Italy and how quickly it's healthcare system was overwhelmed with the sick. At that point it's not only the COVID-19 victims dying as treatment cannot be administered in a timely manner, it is also other healthcare users as they cannot be attended to efficiently either: accident victims, long term sickness, sudden illness, it's a lot more being effected than just the victims of the virus.
The knock on consequences and indirect death rate are going to be higher and felt for way longer than the duration of the Pandemic even if your healthcare system does not get overwhelmed. Scotland has suspended all cancer screening, for example. A few people who may have had the condition detected early and treated successfully may now not get that chance.
Coronavirus in Scotland: Cancer screening programmes paused
The Scottish government said the decision had been "difficult" but was essential due to Covid-19.www.bbc.co.uk
You're noticing something I noticed as well.
This is for the US only AND is only an assumption of what happens if nothing additional is done in the mean time.. I did not have access to other country data at the time.
On Monday, I did a little calculation to see what was happening, because the consensus as that the flatline on the charts indicated a slowing of the infection rate. The assumption I had instead, was the rate drop was from a slowdown in reporting over Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Deaths: 2500 rounded down to nearest 100
Recovered: 4700 rounded up to nearest 100
The prediction for the end of tomorrow is
Cases: 286,000
Deaths: 5000
UPDATE:
I have to restart the simulation, the values for Monday were incorrectly reported to me as the values for Sunday, and the time of day was not recorded so I don't have a clue what the calculation shows at the moment. I'm restarting the process with data from here:
COVID-19 Map
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
coronavirus.jhu.edu
If we reach 5000 dead before tomorrow at 7 PM, then the drop in numbers was from a drop in reporting caused by some other factor, and the calculation needs to be re-configured. The calculation continues until May 5th at which time it stopped because to proceed would mean the US population would need a population of 585 million to continue. Tomorrow evening at any rate, I'll be able to tell whether or not my assumptions are correct for the next 2 weeks. The model can currently extrapolate out until May 5th, but it stops because the population of the US needs to be 585 million to work.
EDIT:the numbers are based on a 3 day period.
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"The outbreak began in China’s Hubei province in late 2019, but the country has publicly reported only about 82,000 cases and 3300 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. That compares to more than 189,000 cases and more than 4000 deaths in the US, which now has the largest publicly reported outbreak in the world. "
Well, I for one am shocked! SHOCKED I tell you that the entire country of China only has 80k cases while NY alone has 84k.
It was completely plausible in the beginning, they did take drastic measures to try contain it by locking down Wuhan with 11M people living there.
Much like the initial outbreak was downplayed by Trump as "under control" and "it will soon be gone", the Chinese provinces most likely downplayed it and reported low numbers to prevent any kind of mass panic.
Im not sure we will ever get the true numbers from countries like China, N Korea or Russia, but I am certain they are really bad!
The numbers could be "real". The scenario is kind of scary from my perspective.
All they needed to do was lock down people in their affected cities, and then stop counting everyone that was locked down. The remainder is mostly the police, army and essential workers, those needed to keep whatever they need running. I don't know what happens when they stop the lockdown, I don't think being someone assigned to collect bodies will be having a good day.
If they could get another countries intelligence service to corroborate this, it'd be great. Hard to tell if this is state propaganda or worse counterintelligence by another state at this point.
That's not saying I think the report is incorrect - The events in other countries strongly suggest that is the case, however I am no microbiologist and I am not intelligence officer. It could be it was simply less fatal in its early phase and mutated into a much worse form... but again I must state I am no microbiologist and I am no intelligence officer.
The lines about the dataset being important are very interesting. The UK for instance (where I live) is still only reporting from the hospital system and has recently started actively pointing this out on the reporting page that cases/deaths in places such as elderly care homes are not included in the daily updates:
UKHSA data dashboard
Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK
However it does go on to point out an additional reporting that should give a wider overview:
So we may get a better overlook, we may not. I understand the want of accuracy, it may transpire a lot of Pneumonia cases were reported as cause of death rather than COVID-19 before it became clear the scale and reach of the pandemic...?
I went to the ONS and searched and found this:
Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.
www.ons.gov.uk
So yeah... the dataset is very important. A few early cases may have been missfiled as viral pneumonia too and if there is no test on some of the deceased there will never be a clear indicator...? so early days, really.
The ONS data does not include Scotland or Northern Ireland so I can't really chart that against the hospital figures yet. It's higher than the hospital daily figures but doesn't include two of the four countries of the UK.
TL;DR: Theres Lies , Damn Lies , and Statistics.
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