Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Montoya

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stockish said:
this is why we in the US will probably have it worse in the coming months
Click to expand...
Unfortunately true.

The way its looking now, unless something magical happens, we are looking at 50,000 - 80,000 deaths unless these curves start flattening.

Thing is, so many states have yet to take any kind of drastic action like NY.

It does not help if one state is swift to act, but the neighboring one does little to nothing. The virus will simply keep hitting the least prepared areas.
 
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Aramsolari

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Radegast74

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So the latest graph looks like it has some good news: as you would expect about 2 weeks into the "social distancing," the positive impact is starting to be seen in that US cases seem to be leveling off...

Now the bad news...since not every location in the US has been stringent about social isolation measures, and there has been a lot of movement (like, the Spring Break kids we saw earlier in the thread) I'm betting we may see some upticks again before we really see the curve level off...
Screen Shot 2020-03-29 at 8.42.52 PM.png
 
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Aramsolari

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Radegast74 said:
So the latest graph looks like it has some good news: as you would expect about 2 weeks into the "social distancing," the positive impact is starting to be seen in that US cases seem to be leveling off...

Now the bad news...since not every location in the US has been stringent about social isolation measures, and there has been a lot of movement (like, the Spring Break kids we saw earlier in the thread) I'm betting we may see some upticks again before we really see the curve level off...
Click to expand...
A lot of the Southern States and Rural areas are gonna get hit hard, make my words. You have communities that deliberately reject social distancing measures as an F U to the Libs and to prove that the whole thing is a hoax.
 
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Radegast74

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I shoud have been more precise in my earlier post (I made it right before I went to bed). When I said "leveling off" in reference to the graph on the log scale, what this actually means is that the rate of new cases has stopped accelerating...

I'll attach the linear graph below, as you can see, the number of cases is still climbing, and we really have a ways to go before *that* starts leveling off. (That's what it means when your rate of accelerating has stopped increasing....your "speed" may still be going up, just not as quickly as it was before). So, make sure you read this 2m away from your computer, ha ha!
Screen Shot 2020-03-30 at 6.57.35 AM.png

 
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Radegast74

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Another great website, they are specifically looking at forecasting hospital demand for beds, ICU beds, and ventilators:
www.healthdata.org

COVID-19 policy briefings | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Read summaries of the latest results for 230+ locations, including WHO regions, national, and subnational locations.
www.healthdata.org www.healthdata.org

Currently they are forecasting that demand will peak on April 15...see charts below:
Screen Shot 2020-03-30 at 8.55.29 AM.png


Screen Shot 2020-03-30 at 8.55.50 AM.png
Screen Shot 2020-03-30 at 8.56.15 AM.png
 
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Aramsolari said:
A lot of the Southern States and Rural areas are gonna get hit hard, make my words. You have communities that deliberately reject social distancing measures as an F U to the Libs and to prove that the whole thing is a hoax.
Click to expand...
And you're basing this off of what exactly?
 
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Radegast74

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I think nobody has a monopoly on "stupid" right now. And technically, these are errors of cognitive decision-making that we all fall for, i.e., "I feel fine, my friends look fine, I'm sure they wouldn't give me the disease," when in fact, COVID-19 spreads like a motherfucker even when asymptomatic and they didn't know how to properly make this decision...

See this article...these people should never have gotten together for choir practice, but it was before the official declarations, and they fell victim to the decision-making traps we all do when we don't want to really think:
www.latimes.com

A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead

The deadly outbreak among members of a choir has stunned health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.
www.latimes.com www.latimes.com
 
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Montoya

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Jolly_Green_Giant said:
And you're basing this off of what exactly?
Click to expand...
Probably from something like this

1585594886269.png


But its worth noting that the coastal states are liberal and got hit first. The fly-over states are mostly red, and would get hit later, so the urgency would not hit them at the same time.
 
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Aramsolari

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Jolly_Green_Giant said:
And you're basing this off of what exactly?
Click to expand...
Purely anecdotal. My partner's rural family took forever to be convinced of the dangers of Covid19 even though she's a nurse. Only in the past week or so are they starting to realize how bad it is. They're Conservative, religious, etc. These aren't kids on Spring Break mind you, these are adults and middle aged adults who are gonna be hit hard if they don't self isolate. It's aggravating. What's driving my partner's mom nuts right now is that she can't go to Church, that's her biggest concern.
 
NaffNaffBobFace

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Noises of cautious optimism from the government today as numbers indicate although cases are raising the rate of the climb does not appear to be exponential. The line on the chart is going up, but it's not curving up steeper. Now is not the time to be celebrating however, to let ones guard down is to invite disaster. Measures remain in place and must be adhered to.

The numbers from today 30th March are again cases from 9am today and fatalities from 5pm yesterday.

Chartorama30-03-20.jpg


And a closer look at the Orange Line:

Fatalities 30-03-20.jpg


I learned something about intervating (the use of machines to help victims breathe while the virus ravages their lungs) today: they have to put the patent to sleep and keep them asleep, basically a medically induced coma.

I had no idea. I think if more people had known about the procedure in a worst case scenario it may have helped them take the pandemic a bit more seriously in the stages where they were being asked to cooperate instead of told to comply.
 
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Mushin

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nypost.com

Shipments of urns in Wuhan raise questions about China’s coronavirus reporting

Massive deliveries of urns in Wuhan have raised fresh skepticism of China’s coronavirus reporting. As families in the central Chinese city began picking up the cremated ashes of those who have died…
nypost.com nypost.com

And no one anywhere was shocked. China has put the reputation of the party over releasing factual data. The fact that the number infected literally caps and stops shows that they were not reporting accurate numbers. China could have millions of infected with 100k or more dead. Just another smoke screen in this whole ordeal.
 
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Aramsolari

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Mushin said:
nypost.com

Shipments of urns in Wuhan raise questions about China’s coronavirus reporting

Massive deliveries of urns in Wuhan have raised fresh skepticism of China’s coronavirus reporting. As families in the central Chinese city began picking up the cremated ashes of those who have died…
nypost.com nypost.com

And no one anywhere was shocked. China has put the reputation of the party over releasing factual data. The fact that the number infected literally caps and stops shows that they were not reporting accurate numbers. China could have millions of infected with 100k or more dead. Just another smoke screen in this whole ordeal.
Click to expand...
The system of Government in China doesn't really encourage openness. Local Wuhan authorities were reluctant to report the outbreak because they were afraid of getting in trouble with the Provincial authorities. The Hubei Provincial authorities were in turn afraid of getting in trouble with the Central Government in Beijing. Post Pandemic, they're hardly gonna report accurate casualty numbers. That's just the nature of their political system and it's not going to change anytime soon.
 
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