TL : DR
As long as SC is
popular, there won't be any shortage of income for CIG.
Long Version
I'm writing this for you
@Sam K Macer , cuz you make me virtual coffee sometimes, and because I want to help set your mind at ease.
I don't know if you all have seen the SC Crowdfunding Spreadsheet, but it's a fun little collection of funding data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tMAP0fg-AKScI3S3VjrDW3OaLO4zgBA1RSYoQOQoNSI/edit#gid=1694467207
I used this data to crunch some numbers, a while back, to check for myself if CIG is financially viable. My numbers were based on their current staffing levels (which was around 300 people in late 2015).
Here's some truths:
1. Current Star Citizen Cost and Funding
1) CIG is running some fairly tight margins. They are basing their staffing levels off of projected income.
2) From what I calculated, it costs somewhere between
20 to 30 million per year to pay all the business costs for salaries, real-estate, technologies, etc.
3) CIG relies on a stable flow of funding; and the speed of their development is tied to their income.
On the flip side,
CIG gains about 30 to 35 million per year in funding. While I'm sure they're saving some cash for the future, the lions share goes right into development.
What does that mean? Well... basically... as long as the following graph continues to grow in a linear fashion, CIG will be ok:
View: http://i.imgur.com/suySap6.png
If funding starts to fall off; then that will be another story. CIG will have to start cutting back their staff to support whatever the new funding levels are. So far, however, the hype train doesn't look like it's going to stop. And once SQ42 is officially released, it's guaranteed that there we be a very significant spike in game package buying.
2. Revenue from releasing SQ42
After the initial hype of SQ42 and SC, funding will start to wane. Before that happens though, I personally believe that SC will go viral, and we'll see a massive influx of new players.
Current we're getting close to 1.5 million citizens (accounts on the website), and almost 1 million of those citizens have purchased a game package (average pledge is around $80). I'm guessing that we'll grow to at least 2 million by launch, and SC will sell around 4 million copies within a year of release.
At those numbers, we're talking about doubling their total funding so far. If the game sells well on launch, they'll make enough profit to fund development on the game for another 1-3 years.
3. Future Star Citizen Funding
On top of that, they've already shown that they can successfully fund the game through real-money purchases. A lot of citizens will buy the max 20k UEC (or whatever the limit is) per month, just to make sure the game stays well funded.
Some people have also already mentioned the SQ42 expansions, which will be sold as DLC. If they release one expansion ever year, or every other year, they should be able to continue development on SC indefinitely.
If they release an expansion every year, and they sell 3 million copies @ $30 per expansion, they'll make 90 million a year! That's three times as much as their current funding per year! With that kind of cash, they'll actually be able to expand their development team, and pull in all the expensive talent that they need to make this game the BDSSE.
Basically, the success of SC is tied to its popularity. If SC becomes a staple game series, and enjoys the same success of other AAA titles, then we're looking at the start of a new powerhouse game company that will be around for 10+ years.
4. Mega Persistent MMO
The feature retraction from the Persistent Universe launch is not something that is caused by a lack of funding. The spreadsheet shows that there's no sign of an end to the gravy train for CIG yet. It's more of a problem of available time.
CR wants to get this game into our hands as soon as he can... not because he likes money... but because this is his dream.
He wants us to be able to play the game, and he's already feeling the pressure that it's so far behind his initial predictions. He's said many, many times that he will continue developing SC for as long as we keep playing it, and that he'll make it into his exact vision if he can.
It is true that the funding won't last forever if the game doesn't come out in 2016 or 2017, so that is a big factor in things, but they aren't hurting for cash just yet.
So again, the restriction on what makes it into the initial release of SC is based on time-constraints, and not so much on funding. Adding stuff like console support would only increase the time-line until SC release, and that's exactly what CR doesn't want right now.
To wrap-up: You can't hide financial problems. Take CryTek for instance... they had to sell of some of their new game IPs, they had to layoff a bunch of employees, and everyone knew they were looking around for financial support. If CIG starts doing any of that sort of thing, we'll know about it in about .01 seconds..
