@NaffNaffBobFace Thank you for the thought out response, I really do appreciate it. I felt like I was going crazy with people just laughing the idea off every time it was brought up. Your response is pretty insightful.
If you ran a country would you have allowed your citizens to visit chernobyl in the years after the disaster?
No, but I don't think this is the same thing. This virus isn't going away and isn't going to stay isolated for long if somehow it is contained, I feel really confident about that considering how infectious it is.
The part of the world that is not infected will not want to deal with the part of the world that is
I just don't see there being a part of the world that isn't infected, again, going back to my confidence that this virus isn't going away considering everything we know about it at the moment. This started with a few people in Wuhan. Now its all over the world. It seems so impossible for it to suddenly just die out when a few people infected the world so fast. I assume the only reason we are seeing a decline in numbers is due to the social distancing, which is what we want, but we have yet to see the outcome of attempting to get things back to normal in countries you say have all but eradicated the virus. We had optimism about it dying out this month due to the heat ala SARS. That doesn't seem to be the case. High heat and humidity help from what I understand, but not like it would with say something like SARS.
The economic impact of not having tried to control and eradicate this pathogen in the populous will not be counted in weeks. It won't be counted in months. It will be counted in years and may even be counted in decades
Of course. Alternatively, how about the effects of attempting to control the virus until it either doesnt exist or its so well contained we dont have to worry about it much? How long will it take? What happens if things dont work out how you have them on paper? You can't predict how people will always act. I can already tell people are tired of being in quarantine only after a few weeks. Now Imagine years. Can we accurately predict the attitude of the populous? Doubt, but right now its pretty apparent its having a harsh effect on people. My best bud just had his kid taken away because hes making way less money and cant afford his rent and his girl just up and left. Dude was talking about doing some pretty bad stuff. If its hitting that close to home for me, I can only imagine the affects its having on people who lost everything.
Take a short-term hit by shutting down and paying for everyone to remain isolated for three months
Ha. Pay people for 3 months. Here in the US if they attempt that ill be impressed. If they can do it in a way people arent waiting 6 months for assistance, ill be even more impressed. Lots of assistance will come too little too late. I can't even get my check because the IRS says I need my security pin to prevent fraud, which they arent able to help me with because no one answers the phone for hours.
so the virus burns itself out
I have very very low confidence this is possible. I hope I'm wrong.
if I ran a country I'd be placing a lot of restrictions on where I allowed my citizens to go.
This is what will cause social unrest here in the US. The ideal of freedom, being free of the very definition of authoritarianism even during a horrible crisis is something people here hold closely to their heart. The government isn't a god, it isn't our parents, its just self serving politicians making decisions on our behalf. While the need for restriction of social liberty is apparent, it doesnt mean you have the authority, or should have the authority to restrict those liberties.
Even countries that had massive infection like China and have got rid of it
Very much doubt. I find it really difficult to believe the virus is nonexistent in china with no possibility of anyone still infecting others in the future. Not with how contagious and resilient this virus is.
You may retain the local economy in the short term but as global trade with you contracts it'll be a domino effect
Which will likely lead to war as China and it's allies vie for supremacy and challenge the US's position. This is laid out in our national defense strategy, has been for a couple years now and this was before the virus. I can only imagine whats going on in the national military command center at the pentagon with all of this happening. I believe global trade will contract regardless, so it might be inevitable.
I am very critical of the way the UK has approached this but the one good thing they did was the Worker Retention Scheme which allowed companies to retain staff and paid them enough to make sure they could pay their bills and didn't need to keep going out and about to make that happen and to just sit tight. A costly move, yes, but a good one.
I have no faith that our government will be able to provide anything like that, considering so many people have already been laid off. I might not get all the UK news, but I don't read articles like I am here in local news about insanely long lines at foodbanks, lack of volunteers and them running out of food. On paper there are a lot of good ideas, right up until you attempt to implement them and it goes to shit. Not everyone is receiving the $1200 dollars they are supposed to get. The moratorium on evictions is only in place for a month or two. People are about to be getting kicked out of their homes. No food. No shelter. No healthcare. No assistance. These problems already existed for many, but now its is exponentially worse on a scale we have never seen. Big unknown but you can feel in your gut what the outcome of this will be with those variables in play.
I may have missed some things but you do make very good points. I just seem to have a lot of what ifs that can go with them.
