Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

[Bambooza]

If I had time I'd write a longer response...part of the reason we are experiencing this current "lockdown with no end in sight" is because a) the disease got out of hand here in the US coupled with b) we really, do NOT know much about the disease, and so far our attempts to find out more have been pretty pathetic.

If we had a working antibody test (we may have one) PLUS we did a decent community survey (the first is going on in California right now) we could get a good population estimate of how many people were exposed to the virus...Since we KNOW how many were hospitalized and how many died, if we knew how many were exposed, we would already know (in round numbers) rates of how many were hospitalized and rates how many died, so we would better understand the risk of opening up the country.

If an antibody test came back and told us 50% or more of the population were exposed, with our current hospitalized rates and death rates then that would be one thing....but if the antibody test told us that only 10% or less were exposed, with the same known hospitalized and some known deaths, then there would be a huge risk in re-opening the country.

This California town is testing every resident for coronavirus and antibodies | CNN

A remote Northern California hamlet became one of the first places in the world Monday to attempt to comprehensively test all of its residents for Covid-19 and the antibodies believed to make one immune from infection.

www.cnn.com

The "playbook" for an epidemic/pandemic is well known....act as soon as possible to isolate those exposed, and then lock them down so it doesn't spread. We didn't do that, now we are in something of a quagmire.

If you want to read a good book, "The Plague" by Albert Camus describes what we are going through ... eerily so. Might not be the best book to read right now, ha ha. Definitely do NOT read "The Myth of Sissyphus."

This is a misnomer. Even if we had locked down the boarders and attempted to contain the virus within North America upon the first introduction it has a very real risk of secondary vectors through the migratory bird populations that come from Eastern Asian and North America into the north artic during the spring and summer months before returning to their winter grounds. The only true means to contain Cov-19 would have been at the site of the outbreak in Wuhan. Even with the measures of taking people's temperature for signs of fever, it seems this strain is highly contagious prior to the development of one's body immune response symptoms (fever, cough, runny nose). It also seems to have a long survival rate (more than a few minutes) outside of a host which makes for difficult tracking of potential exposure.

I personally believe once an antibody test is performed on a large group it will show a far larger infection rate then is currently tracked.

So it is true that you can flatten the curve by slowing down the spread but there is nothing one could have done to prevent regional populations from getting the virus unless they moved into underground bunkers.

While social distancing and staying at home have helped flatten the curve is it as @Jolly_Green_Giant mentioned economically feasible for the world to continue this practice as it truthfully will need to be done until a vaccine has been mass-produced (fall of next year). And just like the influenza flu shot, new strains will need to be tracked and added to the yearly flu shot going forward.

Or would the better course of action be some sort of mask requirement and asking people to be diligent in washing hands and mask usage with the knowledge that there will be an upward trend over staying at home. Remember there are still lots of people demanded they still work from health care professionals to farmers and ranchers to store clerks and delivery people while we hide away in our homes, demanding government money because we can't pay our bills.

The third option is to just let nature runs its course and have everyone go about their normal lives. While these virus effects are new to most of us under the age of 50 due to all of the medical advances that have been very effective at controlling and reducing the death tolls it was not that long ago when this was far more common and all one needs to do is talk with their older relitives for what it was like. Or go to India which is still suffering from the effects of H1N1 (swine flu).

 

[Aramsolari]

This is a misnomer. Even if we had locked down the boarders and attempted to contain the virus within North America upon the first introduction it has a very real risk of secondary vectors through the migratory bird populations that come from Eastern Asian and North America into the north artic during the spring and summer months before returning to their winter grounds. The only true means to contain Cov-19 would have been at the site of the outbreak in Wuhan. Even with the measures of taking people's temperature for signs of fever, it seems this strain is highly contagious prior to the development of one's body immune response symptoms (fever, cough, runny nose). It also seems to have a long survival rate (more than a few minutes) outside of a host which makes for difficult tracking of potential exposure.

I personally believe once an antibody test is performed on a large group it will show a far larger infection rate then is currently tracked.

So it is true that you can flatten the curve by slowing down the spread but there is nothing one could have done to prevent regional populations from getting the virus unless they moved into underground bunkers.

While social distancing and staying at home have helped flatten the curve is it as @Jolly_Green_Giant mentioned economically feasible for the world to continue this practice as it truthfully will need to be done until a vaccine has been mass-produced (fall of next year). And just like the influenza flu shot, new strains will need to be tracked and added to the yearly flu shot going forward.

Or would the better course of action be some sort of mask requirement and asking people to be diligent in washing hands and mask usage with the knowledge that there will be an upward trend over staying at home. Remember there are still lots of people demanded they still work from health care professionals to farmers and ranchers to store clerks and delivery people while we hide away in our homes, demanding government money because we can't pay our bills.

The third option is to just let nature runs its course and have everyone go about their normal lives. While these virus effects are new to most of us under the age of 50 due to all of the medical advances that have been very effective at controlling and reducing the death tolls it was not that long ago when this was far more common and all one needs to do is talk with their older relitives for what it was like. Or go to India which is still suffering from the effects of H1N1 (swine flu).

I think sooner or later we'll have to adopt some middle ground. Everyone goes back to work but with far more stringent hygiene restrictions. I don't think we're there yet though. I think it's far too premature to open countries up again (especially the US).

 

[Bambooza]

I see a potential economic issue for countries like the US, UK and others that have not kept a lid on it: no one is going to come to these countries and no one is going to allow people from these countries in to theirs until the contagion is controlled and that isn't going to happen if lockdown is lifted and movement is reinstated. If you ran a country would you have allowed your citizens to visit chernobyl in the years after the disaster? With a bio-hazard on the prowl that's how it may end up being viewed for these countries. You'd be daft to go on holiday to the part of Africa when there was the Ebola epidemic there. Same thing.

Economically tourism is still a small part of the overall GDP of these nations. So loss of people coming from outside the country would have a limited impact on the economical wellbeing. While people within the nation might be more reluctant to visit social functions or engage in business that are service industries like restaurants other industries would not be impacted.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Economically tourism is still a small part of the overall GDP of these nations. So loss of people coming from outside the country would have a limited impact on the economical wellbeing. While people within the nation might be more reluctant to visit social functions or engage in business that are service industries like restaurants other industries would not be impacted.

Leisure tourism is just the tip of the ice burg.

In the UK a noticeable section of the Health Services come from overseas. Business meetings for things such as infrastructure projects and placing global headquarters occur in person. Skilled workers to execute those projects often come in from overseas. Even down to unskilled seasonal workers - fields were left to rot last year as Brexit meant European workers did not come over to pick the produce and there was a labor shortage.

Allowing a pathogen to rage unchecked through the population while most other countries were clamping down successfully was only ever going to result in it becoming a part of that nations ecosystem, but not part of others. This disparity will bias decisions from outside the effected countries. No global headquarters as you won't be able to guarantee the health and thus the efficiency of your staff. No more swiftly built infrastructure projects as having to pay the health insurance and additional Quarantine fees for those skilled construction workers to come and build your power station blows the budget out of the water assuming you can pay enough to encourage them to come to a known contagion area in the first place. Fields of fruit falling off the bough on to the floor to rot as there are not enough seasonal workers traveling in to collect it.

Tourism will be the very least of these countries worries, as any reliance they had on external workers skilled or otherwise may well be taken out of their hands by the countries the workers may otherwise have come from.

 

[Aramsolari]

There was once a pa

Leisure tourism is just the tip of the ice burg.

In the UK a noticeable section of the Health Services come from overseas. Business meetings for things such as infrastructure projects and placing global headquarters occur in person. Skilled workers to execute those projects often come in from overseas. Even down to unskilled seasonal workers - fields were left to rot last year as Brexit meant European workers did not come over to pick the produce and there was a labor shortage.

Allowing a pathogen to rage unchecked through the population while most other countries were clamping down successfully was only ever going to result in it becoming a part of that nations ecosystem, but not part of others. This disparity will bias decisions from outside the effected countries. No global headquarters as you won't be able to guarantee the health and thus the efficiency of your staff. No more swiftly built infrastructure projects as having to pay the health insurance and additional Quarantine fees for those skilled construction workers to come and build your power station blows the budget out of the water assuming you can pay enough to encourage them to come to a known contagion area in the first place. Fields of fruit falling off the bough on to the floor to rot as there are not enough seasonal workers traveling in to collect it.

Tourism will be the very least of these countries worries, as any reliance they had on external workers skilled or otherwise may well be taken out of their hands by the countries the workers may otherwise have come from.

I'm sure all the Leavers sitting at home whinging about all the foreigners will be quick to fill that labour gap.

 

[Radegast74]

This is a misnomer. Even if we had locked down the boarders and attempted to contain the virus within North America upon the first introduction it has a very real risk of secondary vectors through the migratory bird populations that come from Eastern Asian and North America into the north artic during the spring and summer months before returning to their winter grounds.

We don't know that, at all. While that is the way the flu spreads, the flu has been around for thousands of years and has a very well established chain of transmission, that makes it readily transmissible across species. The whole point about the *novel* coronavirus is that it is completely novel...it somehow jumped across a species to us, but it isn't clear that it has jumped to carrier other than the species it has originated from.

I personally believe once an antibody test is performed on a large group it will show a far larger infection rate then is currently tracked.

I think pretty much everybody believes this, but the question still remains, how much of the population has been exposed? If we had a decent answer to this, we could make informed decisions about the next steps...we might even be able to end the "physical distancing" measures really soon, if only we knew...the issues doesn't appear to be "lack of know-how" the issue appears to be rudderless leadership at the tippy-top of our country.

 

[Montoya]

 

[Sirus7264]

View attachment 15566

People are really stupid honestly. I'm doing as much as i can to not get sick....

 

[Radegast74]

The Daily News had a bit longer write up, including this from a Facebook post:

Sad to think he might have given the coronavirus to other family members.
Full article is here at:

Ohio man dies from COVID-19 after criticizing governor’s coronavirus lockdown as ‘madness’

An Ohio man has tragically died from COVID-19 after criticizing his state’s coronavirus lockdown. John W. McDaniel, 60, died Wednesday in Columbus, exactly one month after reportedly calling …

www.nydailynews.com

 

[Montoya]

Sad to think he might have given the coronavirus to other family members.

Thats the thing.

If you want to be an idiot, go right ahead, but the problem is that you can be spreading this virus for days before any symptoms even show up!

 

[August]

As at 6:00am on 23 April 2020, there have been 6,654 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 7 new cases since 6:00am yesterday.

Of the 6,654 confirmed cases in Australia, 74 have died and 5,012 have been reported as recovered from COVID-19.

 

[Radegast74]

Thats the thing.

If you want to be an idiot, go right ahead, but the problem is that you can be spreading this virus for days before any symptoms even show up!

People talk about "Freedom" all the time, but they don't seem to think or pay attention to "Responsibility."

EDIT: ok, I've been resisting, but George Carlin sums up my feelings perfectly here:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLODGhEyLvk

 

[Bambooza]

We don't know that, at all. While that is the way the flu spreads, the flu has been around for thousands of years and has a very well established chain of transmission, that makes it readily transmissible across species. The whole point about the *novel* coronavirus is that it is completely novel...it somehow jumped across a species to us, but it isn't clear that it has jumped to carrier other than the species it has originated from.

I thought we had already shown you that the coronavirus has been around just as long and more than likely you have been infected by it multiple times in your life. While COVID-19 is a new strain of the coronavirus it still shares many similar characteristics of its family. So what is novel is not the coronavirus but COVID-19. As for COVID-19 its been shown to infect domesticated dogs and cats while so far not believed to be a source of animal to human transmission they still recommend quarantining sick animals. There was even the highly publicized infection of the tiger in the Bronx Zoo.
While COVID-19 animal to human initial infection is still not known SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is known to be in the bat population.

Leisure tourism is just the tip of the ice burg.

In the UK a noticeable section of the Health Services come from overseas. Business meetings for things such as infrastructure projects and placing global headquarters occur in person. Skilled workers to execute those projects often come in from overseas. Even down to unskilled seasonal workers - fields were left to rot last year as Brexit meant European workers did not come over to pick the produce and there was a labor shortage.

Allowing a pathogen to rage unchecked through the population while most other countries were clamping down successfully was only ever going to result in it becoming a part of that nations ecosystem, but not part of others. This disparity will bias decisions from outside the effected countries. No global headquarters as you won't be able to guarantee the health and thus the efficiency of your staff. No more swiftly built infrastructure projects as having to pay the health insurance and additional Quarantine fees for those skilled construction workers to come and build your power station blows the budget out of the water assuming you can pay enough to encourage them to come to a known contagion area in the first place. Fields of fruit falling off the bough on to the floor to rot as there are not enough seasonal workers traveling in to collect it.

Tourism will be the very least of these countries worries, as any reliance they had on external workers skilled or otherwise may well be taken out of their hands by the countries the workers may otherwise have come from.

Until a vaccine is developed the virus is going to rage unchecked throughout the population. All the social distancing measures are implemented for is to slow down the infection rate so that those who have an adverse reaction to the infection have a chance at medical intervention. Speeding up the rate of infection risk has the outcome of overwhelming the medical systems and thus some who die could have been saved through medical intervention. As to what percent it's still unknown and I do not think anyone wants to subjugate a population to the test that would be required, IE infect thousands and not incubate or admit any of the critical to medical treatment then that becomes your baseline to compare against the survival rate of those who get medical treatment. There honestly is a possibility that incubation and treatment of the infected is not saving any more lives then not doing anything. Look at the results of Hydroxychloroquine which was slated as being a wonderdrug in treating COVID-19 and is now shown to have no positive benefit and in fact result in higher death rates in patients taking it.

So the end results from social distancing and shutting down business has nothing to do with a countries ability to attract tourist or future corporation contracts but in slowing down the spread of the virus so as to possibly save more of its population. In fact if I was a corporation I would look to countries that had its population already infected and over it as they are now mostly immune and ready to get back to work. Countries that are dragging out the shutdowns are adversely impacting their business and a lot will not survive. While it is true new businesses will fill the void in time if there is a market justification for it the question is what do the people do for work in the meantime and how quickly do the markets recover? One more thing to consider is people start doing destructive actions when they lose hope for the future. Putting huge portions of the population out of work with no means to support themselves and their families has lead to many wars and famines.

 

[Radegast74]

I thought we had already shown you that the coronavirus has been around just as long and more than likely you have been infected by it multiple times in your life. While COVID-19 is a new strain of the coronavirus it still shares many similar characteristics of its family. So what is novel is not the coronavirus but COVID-19. As for COVID-19 its been shown to infect domesticated dogs and cats while so far not believed to be a source of animal to human transmission they still recommend quarantining sick animals. There was even the highly publicized infection of the tiger in the Bronx Zoo.
While COVID-19 animal to human initial infection is still not known SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is known to be in the bat population.

I wasn't clear, I was using coronavirus when I meant COVID-19, which is a *novel* coronvirus.

Using flu as an analogy (which, will break down at a certain point), here is an example of what I was trying to convey...birds have a flu virus, but it only jumps to humans in rare instances...if it is addressed and clamped down quickly, it doesn't become a full-blown human pandemic (the SARS virus is another example). Only if it gets out of hand, with sustained human to human transmission does it become a epidemic/pandemic. To remain a threat, it has to keep getting spread by humans, or to jump back to birds/animals and then be able to jump back to us.

see this:

Past Examples of Probable Limited, Non-Sustained, Person-to-Person Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses | Avian Influenza (Flu)

Examples of Human Infections with Avian Influenza A Viruses with Possible Limited, Non-Sustained Human-to-Human Transmission - CDC

www.cdc.gov

It is possible for human-to-human transmission of other non-human (animal-origin) influenza A viruses to range along a continuum; from occasional, limited, non-sustained human-to-human transmission of one or more generations without further spread (“dead-end transmission”), to efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission. Efficient and sustained (ongoing) transmission of non-human influenza A viruses (including avian influenza A viruses) among people in the community is needed for an influenza pandemic to begin.

 

[Bambooza]

I wasn't clear, I was using coronavirus when I meant COVID-19, which is a *novel* coronvirus.



Using flu as an analogy (which, will break down at a certain point), here is an example of what I was trying to convey...birds have a flu virus, but it only jumps to humans in rare instances...if it is addressed and clamped down quickly, it doesn't become a full-blown human pandemic (the SARS virus is another example). Only if it gets out of hand, with sustained human to human transmission does it become a epidemic/pandemic. To remain a threat, it has to keep getting spread by humans, or to jump back to birds/animals and then be able to jump back to us.



see this:

Past Examples of Probable Limited, Non-Sustained, Person-to-Person Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses | Avian Influenza (Flu)

Examples of Human Infections with Avian Influenza A Viruses with Possible Limited, Non-Sustained Human-to-Human Transmission - CDC

www.cdc.gov

Correct to remain classified as a pandemic it needs to continue to spread quickly from human to human. You are also correct if it was clamped down quickly it doesn't become a full-blown human pandemic as I said that the time of clamping down was back when it first was making its rounds in Wuhan. But the question was if it was even possible to identify it quickly enough and remove those infected from contact with others given the seemingly long asymptomatic shedding. I have a feeling by the time it was even recognized as being problematic it was already too late to shut down the borders and order any sort of containment. (incidentally, this is also my favorite way of playing Plauge Inc. Make the virus highly infectious with no symptoms before jumping to high lethality once most of the world is infected)

But back to my earlier point. This strain of the Coronavirus is not going anywhere and until a vaccine is introduced people are going to be infected with it even while we try to limit its spread. All we are able to accomplish at this point is slowing down the infection rate. I fully expect to see a resurgence of the virus this fall as well as a new strain as I fully expect it to have made it into the bird population where it can mix and infect other mammals resulting in genome mixing.

In the meantime, let's hope that before Jan a suitable viral candidate is found so that they can start crafting the vaccine to be released fall of 2021. Yes a year and a half from now, so hopefully the N95 mask production is ramped up.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Until a vaccine is developed the virus is going to rage unchecked throughout the population. All the social distancing measures are implemented for is to slow down the infection rate so that those who have an adverse reaction to the infection have a chance at medical intervention. Speeding up the rate of infection risk has the outcome of overwhelming the medical systems and thus some who die could have been saved through medical intervention. As to what percent it's still unknown and I do not think anyone wants to subjugate a population to the test that would be required, IE infect thousands and not incubate or admit any of the critical to medical treatment then that becomes your baseline to compare against the survival rate of those who get medical treatment. There honestly is a possibility that incubation and treatment of the infected is not saving any more lives then not doing anything. Look at the results of Hydroxychloroquine which was slated as being a wonderdrug in treating COVID-19 and is now shown to have no positive benefit and in fact result in higher death rates in patients taking it.

I hear you.

At this point I say go for it USA and see what happens - do you think it will mutate into a less dangerous strain like they think happened with the 1918 pandemic, or do you think it will mutate into something a lot stronger, like the 1918 pandemic?

Also, what was the deal with people who'd recovered falling ill with Cov-19 again? Was that them just not acquiring immunity or was that the virus mutating into additional strains?

Finally, do you think New Zealand will get to Zero/Zero (Zero new cases and Zero cases in hospital)? They only have 8 cases in hospital right now.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

UK numbers for 23rd April 2020.

138,078 total confirmed with 4,583 new, 18,738 total fatalities with 616 new.

Todays Current Status is bought to you by clinical trials starting on a new Vaccine. Time will tell, fingers are crossed:

Coronavirus: First patients injected in UK vaccine trial

The first two people have been injected as part of a UK study of a Covid-19 vaccine.

www.bbc.co.uk

Todays Status Outlook is bought to you by trials due to start in the UK to try to see what the virus is doing in the wider population with a random selection of 20,000 citizens being monitored for a year.

Coronavirus: Study to track infection and immunity levels

The findings will help to inform the government's strategy for easing the lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk

It's a start. Contact Track and Trace would be great and according to todays press release it's in the works but it's not here yet and may still be weeks away. Seems like we are still very much on the back-foot.

 

[Radegast74]

But back to my earlier point. This strain of the Coronavirus is not going anywhere and until a vaccine is introduced people are going to be infected with it even while we try to limit its spread. All we are able to accomplish at this point is slowing down the infection rate. I fully expect to see a resurgence of the virus this fall as well as a new strain as I fully expect it to have made it into the bird population where it can mix and infect other mammals resulting in genome mixing.

In the meantime, let's hope that before Jan a suitable viral candidate is found so that they can start crafting the vaccine to be released fall of 2021. Yes a year and a half from now, so hopefully the N95 mask production is ramped up.

I wished I shared your optimism. I think that developing a vaccine is going to be harder than we think.

 

[Bambooza]

I hear you.

At this point I say go for it USA and see what happens - do you think it will mutate into a less dangerous strain like they think happened with the 1918 pandemic, or do you think it will mutate into something a lot stronger, like the 1918 pandemic?

Also, what was the deal with people who'd recovered falling ill with Cov-19 again? Was that them just not acquiring immunity or was that the virus mutating into additional strains?

Finally, do you think New Zealand will get to Zero/Zero (Zero new cases and Zero cases in hospital)? They only have 8 cases in hospital right now.

New Zealand has a chance. Mostly it's due to the lower population density, small infection population, and isolation.

The deal with people who recover falling ill again is alarming but it could be they are falling ill to a second strain (theorized but not verified as of yet) , they did not fully recover from the initial infection, their body has not developed antibodies to the virus. As for the future, it is unknown. Coronaviruses on a whole usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses like the common cold. But in the last 20 years, there have been three new coronaviruses strains that have caused far more illness and death starting with SARS-CoV in 2002 and MERS-CoV in 2012 and now SARS-CoV-2. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were far more deadly then SARS-CoV-2 but seem to have a lower transmission rate. But typically virus mutations are harmful to the virus itself and those mutations that aren't typically either don't change the characteristics of contagious/lethality or result in a far more contagious virus but not as lethal. The other important consideration is that mutations can easily change the nucleic acids that current tests utilize for identification. Which is why current RT-PCR tests attempt to dual or triple target assay on not only the specific virus nucleic acids but also those found in the subgenus family (in this case the SARS-CoV).

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

Id say this qualifies to be put in the covid channel