Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread
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Eh. We don't have the money for that. Makes no political or financial sense. I'll rather the money goes towards Vancouver getting an NBA team again. Besides....the moose will just chew right through it.
In more positive news, Captain Tom is now a Knight of the Realm!
He's now Captain Sir Tom Moore! In awe of this lad! absolute unit!
He's now Captain Sir Tom Moore! In awe of this lad! absolute unit!
Coronavirus: Captain Tom Moore awarded knighthood for NHS fundraising
The 100-year-old war veteran raised £32m for NHS charities by completing 100 laps of his garden.
www.bbc.com
I did not expect that comment from you, because it is pretty selfish.
So, here is some bullshit that you folks don't give a fuck about.
The unreal dichotomy in COVID-19 mortality between high-income and developing countries | Brookings
Philip Schellekens and Diego Sourrouille present an alternative way of tracking the global distribution and progression of the pandemic based on an indicator of “relative severity.”
www.brookings.edu
Death may be better measured than infection, especially in HICs, but even so there is ample evidence that COVID-19 deaths are being misattributed to different causes. By some estimates, reported death rates in selected countries could be underestimated by 60 percent.
We’ve seen consistently low rates of mortality here (about 0.014% of known cases resulted in fatality) but the virus has spread very effectively and has resulted in larger numbers of hospitalisations and serious illness.
While each country is different, I’d suggest that hospitalisation rates are more closely tied to actual rates of infection assuming similar population demographics.
If that is accurate then in countries without universal healthcare I can see the problem with this. If people don’t want to go to hospital for fear of bankruptcy (they’ve lost their job and insurance for example), the chances of getting a handle on actual rates of infection would be slim to none.
While each country is different, I’d suggest that hospitalisation rates are more closely tied to actual rates of infection assuming similar population demographics.
If that is accurate then in countries without universal healthcare I can see the problem with this. If people don’t want to go to hospital for fear of bankruptcy (they’ve lost their job and insurance for example), the chances of getting a handle on actual rates of infection would be slim to none.
Radegast74
Space Marshal
With testing being so sporadic/underutilized/unavailable (in the US, at least), the "reported cases" are probably a measure of "serious enough COVID19 symptoms to actually seek medical attention" and out of those, a certain percentage will be hospitalized.
Again, it is a case of "garbage in, garbage out" in that it tells us something, but, who knows what, exactly?
The Gold Standard for measuring the impact of COVID19 here in the US will be looking at "excess mortality," i.e., looking at the number of death certificates issued on a weekly basis for the years preceeding this, and then during the current year. Right now, it is looking pretty bad.
On another note, I must be sadistic, these "I thought coronavirus was a hoax until I got it!" stories never get old!
He thought the coronavirus was 'a fake crisis.' Then he contracted it.
Brian Hitchens said he thought that the coronavirus "is a fake crisis" that was "blown out of proportion" and "wasn't that serious."
I think one of the generally accepted better measures where testing and confirming of infection is not absolute is the number of deaths above average.With testing being so sporadic/underutilized/unavailable (in the US, at least), the "reported cases" are probably a measure of "serious enough COVID19 symptoms to actually seek medical attention" and out of those, a certain percentage will be hospitalized.
Again, it is a case of "garbage in, garbage out" in that it tells us something, but, who knows what, exactly?
The Gold Standard for measuring the impact of COVID19 here in the US will be looking at "excess mortality," i.e., looking at the number of death certificates issued on a weekly basis for the years preceeding this, and then during the current year. Right now, it is looking pretty bad.
On another note, I must be sadistic, these "I thought coronavirus was a hoax until I got it!" stories never get old!
He thought the coronavirus was 'a fake crisis.' Then he contracted it.
Brian Hitchens said he thought that the coronavirus "is a fake crisis" that was "blown out of proportion" and "wasn't that serious."www.nbcnews.com
The below chart was for the UK from the 1st of May:
Coronavirus: How many people have died in the UK?
Official statistics show a large increase in the number of UK deaths above the expected level.
www.bbc.co.uk
I can't think of any other way of getting an overview without having a 100% testing capacity?
EDIT - updated chart numbers as recent as May 18th:
Covid inquiry: The UK pandemic in numbers
Explore the data on how the coronavirus pandemic unfolded in the UK.
www.bbc.co.uk
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'Recipe for Disaster': Democrat Governors Put COVID-19 Patients in Nursing Homes, Contributing to Thousands of Deaths. » The National Pulse+
Calls to protect the elderly went unheeded by Democratic Governors Cuomo, Whitmer, Wolf, and Newsom, according to bombshell reports scarcely discussed by broadcast media outlets. These Democratic Party governors not only failed to prioritize the safety of vulnerable people in their state nursing...
thenationalpulse.com
Radegast74
Space Marshal
Yep, simply put, without 100% testing, you are sampling and estimating...but you won't have an actual answer. Since everybody who dies for any reason has to have a death certificate, deaths will get recorded, and you can get a better estimate (likely, the *best* estimate) of how many have died from the "excess deaths" during this time period.
Based on that, we can then get a better estimate of exposure rates, etc.
It's just getting hold of that deaths over average data, I've been searching for it for Colorado for a few days now and I just can't find it anywhere. I can find the average for last year, the last five years, but I can't find weekly/monthly registered deaths for 2020 anywhere. I don't think they do them...?
I've also temporarily stopped bothering looking at Colorado info as they changed the count from "Died with COVID" to "Died from COVID" last friday which makes it farly irrelevant until they lock down that metric and decide how they are going to analyse it going forward.
If you counted deaths from HIV/AIDS the same way, the total death rate would be 0% as it weakens the immune system to the point it can't counter other conditions which then kill the victim, such as pneumonia etc.
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Radegast74
Space Marshal
For most states, I don't think that death certificate data like that is posted on line. I think that university researchers/epidemiologists will be getting that data within the next 6 monts. If you find it, let me know!
Here is another great article from the CDC's MMWR:
High COVID-19 Attack Rate Among Attendees at Events at a Church ...
On March 16, 2020, the day that national social distancing guidelines were released (1), the Arkansas Department of Health (ADH) was notified of two cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ...
Home
OUR MISSION: Prevent 100 million deaths from cardiovascular disease Make the world safer from epidemics Who we are We are mission-driven and have deep technical expertise. We support staff who live in the countries or regions in which we work. We strive to create a fit-for-purpose workplace that...
resolvetosavelives.org
Partnership for Evidence-Based Response to COVID-19 (PERC) - Prevent Epidemics
Original research and analysis to support African Union Member States with the implementation of public health and social measures.
preventepidemics.org
A Trial of Lopinavir–Ritonavir in Adults Hospitalized with Severe Covid-19
NEJM, 18 Mar 2020
Main message: Kaletra, an HIV treatment, did not show benefit in very severe COVID-19 patients
IHU – Méditerranée Infection, 18 Mar 2020
Main message: Hydroxychloroquine, a drug generally used for malaria, should be further investigated for COVID-19. This study is too small and has too many limitations to conclude its effectiveness for COVID-19 treatment.
The Guardian, 18 Mar 2020; original article unavailable
Main message: Favipiravir should be further investigated for COVID-19. This study is too small and has too many limitations to conclude that favipiravir is effective in treating COVID-19.
NEJM, 18 Mar 2020
Main message: Kaletra, an HIV treatment, did not show benefit in very severe COVID-19 patients
- Randomized controlled open-label trial of 199 laboratory-confirmed hospitalized COVID-19 patients. 99 in lopinavir-ritonavir (Kaletra) group, 100 in standard care group.
- No significant difference in time to clinical improvement, 28-day mortality or viral detectability.
- In hospitalized adult patients with severe COVID-19, no benefit was observed with lopinavir–ritonavir treatment beyond standard care. Note that these were very severe COVID-19 patients (22% died vs. ~11-14% death rate in other studies).
IHU – Méditerranée Infection, 18 Mar 2020
Main message: Hydroxychloroquine, a drug generally used for malaria, should be further investigated for COVID-19. This study is too small and has too many limitations to conclude its effectiveness for COVID-19 treatment.
- At day 6 post-study inclusion, 70% of patients in the hydroxychloroquine group tested negative compared to 12.5% of the other patients. When hydroxychloroquine group was separated into hydroxychloroquine only versus hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, 100% of patients who received hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin tested negative. Faster time to viral clearance may or may not correlate with better clinical outcomes and improved survival.
- Clinical trial of 42 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients. 26 in hydroxychloroquine group, 16 other patients. 6 patients from hydroxychloroquine group were lost to follow-up. Results are from 36 patients.
The Guardian, 18 Mar 2020; original article unavailable
Main message: Favipiravir should be further investigated for COVID-19. This study is too small and has too many limitations to conclude that favipiravir is effective in treating COVID-19.
- Clinical trial of 340 patients in Wuhan and Shenzhen
- Patients who were given favipiravir tested negative after a median of four days compared with a median of 11 days for patients who were not treated with the drug
- X-rays confirmed improvements in lung condition in about 91% of the patients who were treated with favipiravir compared to 62% of those who were not treated with the drug
- Japanese health ministry source suggested that the drug was not as effective in people with more severe symptoms
- Faster time to viral clearance may or may not correlate with better clinical outcomes and improved survival.
Ha I was wondering why this was 95 pages already... now i know :D
I think the Swedish experiment can be concluded at this point.
Todays UK numbers for today 20th May:
Total confirmed 248,293 with 2,472 new (less than yesterdays estimate so the estimate has been removed from the chart), total dead 35,704 with 363 new.
Todays status is in reflection of the recent rebrand "Stay Alert" advice rather than "Stay Home" prompting silly bastards to piss off down the seaside again in turn causing multiple problems including a 40 minute queue for the toilet in Skegness Lincolnshire, because unsurprisingly all but one of the public toilets were closed as all of the seaside town ARE closed, all the shops, restaurants, arcades and other facilities are currently in Lockdown... To put this in context, all the MCDONALDS in the UK are still closed. To be honest, at the point you join the end of a 40 minute queue for the john, you'd likely just wade off into the sea and drop your load there. I've been to Skegness and the water there is brown anyway (English channel between the UK and Europe, it's not the clear blue of the Mediterranean) so no one would notice unless you produced a floater at which point everyone would run like Jaws had made a guest appearance:
The status outlook is for the potential of mixed messages to cause more "confusion".
Total confirmed 248,293 with 2,472 new (less than yesterdays estimate so the estimate has been removed from the chart), total dead 35,704 with 363 new.
Todays status is in reflection of the recent rebrand "Stay Alert" advice rather than "Stay Home" prompting silly bastards to piss off down the seaside again in turn causing multiple problems including a 40 minute queue for the toilet in Skegness Lincolnshire, because unsurprisingly all but one of the public toilets were closed as all of the seaside town ARE closed, all the shops, restaurants, arcades and other facilities are currently in Lockdown... To put this in context, all the MCDONALDS in the UK are still closed. To be honest, at the point you join the end of a 40 minute queue for the john, you'd likely just wade off into the sea and drop your load there. I've been to Skegness and the water there is brown anyway (English channel between the UK and Europe, it's not the clear blue of the Mediterranean) so no one would notice unless you produced a floater at which point everyone would run like Jaws had made a guest appearance:
England beaches gridlock caused by cars 'from all over country'
A Devon car park is described as "like August", while a Merseyside council asks people to stay away.
www.bbc.co.uk
The status outlook is for the potential of mixed messages to cause more "confusion".
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