Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

[Bambooza]

I missed from Tuesday because of recovering from dental surgery. Very un-fun.

Well I am glad you are back. Thursday and Friday I found myself busy with a hospital stay. While they did check one's temperature at the door and mask usage while in common areas was still required as well as my wife having to have a nasal covid test prior to being admitted to labor and delivery (i was not tested nor inquired about my vaccination status). The rest of the hospital was rather quite and felt very much like pre covid times.

I got the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine, but don't forget there's also the Moderna. They're very similar. The other thing about these mRNA vaccines is that if new variants start to make it ineffective, a booster shot with the new variant's mRNA is likely all that is needed. They can be made very quickly compared with other types of vaccine. Now the two we have currently are only approved under an emergency use status, but that will change. It's going to be interesting to see what else they can make mRNA vaccines for - and how long the immunity actually lasts.

I am sure it will change as people have seen how how quickly mRNA vaccines can be produced they are not going to go back. But like all new technologies they do come with a lot of unknown risks and it's going to be interesting to look back on it in 20 years and see what we didn't know about. One thing of concern with mRNA is the risk of creating a autoimmune disease response with in those vaccinated.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Saturday 12th of June:

- World: 175,415,161 confirmed cases and 3,787,756 confirmed deaths.

- World: G7 vows to collectively donate 1 billion vaccines to the global effort.

- UK: Government considers a delay to restriction easing of 4 weeks as Delta variant cases rise and rise as Prime Minister admits the Delta Variant of serious concern.

- UK: Queens Birthday Honours list includes unsung heroes who have contributed hugely to vaccine rollouts and other pandemic related work across the country.

- Russia: New cases at highest level for 3 months.

- Australia: Researchers indicate with currently level of hesitancy country will not attain herd immunity via vaccination.

- Democratic Republic of Congo: President indicates the capital cities hospitals are overwhelmed.

- US: Airport traffic saw more than 2 million people pass through on Friday - the most highest number since March 2020.

- Saudi Arabia: Orginisers of Hajj pilgrimage to exclude foreign visitors as COVID concerns remain.

- Vietnam: Approves Pfizer vaccine for emergency use.

 

[Vavrik]

I am sure it will change as people have seen how how quickly mRNA vaccines can be produced they are not going to go back. But like all new technologies they do come with a lot of unknown risks and it's going to be interesting to look back on it in 20 years and see what we didn't know about. One thing of concern with mRNA is the risk of creating a autoimmune disease response with in those vaccinated.

Auto immune responses to drugs and vaccines (and food) is always a risk, so don't let that be anyone's reason to not get vaccinated. If it's a concern, just talk to a physician. There are options.

 

[Bambooza]

Auto immune responses to drugs and vaccines (and food) is always a risk, so don't let that be anyone's reason to not get vaccinated. If it's a concern, just talk to a physician. There are options.

Indeed they should talk to their physician and weigh the risks.

Of course it's also recommended to know what sort of doctor you are talking to and what their specialization is because there are lots of dissenting opinions like this.
https://www.greatermcdonoughchiro.com/dr-daves-blog/194328-autoimmune-disease-covid-19-amp-vaccinations which might not be the most valid of sources.

This would be a better source of information.

Expert Advice: Autoimmune Disease and COVID-19…What You Need to Know

On Friday, April 3, Autoimmune Association was honored to co-hosted a briefing with the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and in conjunction with the …

www.aarda.org

But even still it's important to remember that published papers have a lot of bios and incorrect conclusions.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42QuXLucH3Q


And we should not flat our reject dissenting opinions for some of them are correct

Delayed Gratification: Why it Took Everybody So Long to Acknowledge that Bacteria Cause Ulcers — Journal of Young Investigators

In 1983, Australian doctors J. Robin Warren and Barry Marshall isolated Helicobacter pylori , the bacterial cause of peptic ulcer disease (P.U.D.). However, decades passed before most doctors prescribed antibiotics to their afflicted patients. Why didn't the medical community hit itself on its coll

www.jyi.org

But this is not to say that all dissenting opinions are correct

Appetite suppression through smelling of dark chocolate correlates with changes in ghrelin in young women

Appetite suppression through smelling of dark chocolate correlates with changes in ghrelin in young women - PubMed

Cephalic effects on appetite are mediated by vagal tone and altered gastrointestinal hormones. The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between appetite and levels of gastrointestinal hormones after smelling chocolate and after melt-and-swallow 30 g chocolate (1.059 oz, 85%...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

And contrary to @Thalstan emotionally charge factually incorrect outburst I am not advocating against wearing masks or getting vaccinated against any treatable disease for we have to look no further then the effects of polio and measles on past generations to see their overwhelming benefit. My concern has always been that we let our emotions control our actions and do not do our do diligence in making sure the cure is not worse than the disease. That we take precautions to limit the fallout from our forward rush into new technologies for we will make mistakes. But this shouldn't stop us from also reaching for the stars, just in as safe of a way as we can.

That we should truly look back on the last years actions and see if anything made a true measurable difference or if it simply did not change the outcome and infect put us in a worse spot then if we did nothing. We have to be honest with ourselves and truly understand what did and did no work for this was just a meek preview of what is out there that can have a far worse outcome.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Sunday 13th of June:

- World: 175,765,796 confirmed cases and 3,797,186 confirmed deaths.

- G7: The worlds 7 richest democracies pledge on top of the previously announced 1 billion doses of vaccine have stated they will also work with the G20 and manufacturers to increase that number, and have also issued a new fund to assist developing countries create infrastructure and other projects. China, which has been doing similar with an infrastructure fund and supplying vaccines to poorer countries, responds that the world is no longer run by a small group of countries and all should work in unison and harmony.

- G7: The group calls for expert lead investigation into the origins of COVID-19. “We believe that all hypotheses should be open, and we need to proceed to the second phase to really know the origins,”

- World: Shipping disruptions caused by the pandemic predicted to last until the end of the year.

- UK: Official indicates the lifting of restrictions on June 21st will depend on if vaccines have severed the link between infections and hospital admissions, which has previously been noted with the death rate, government still waiting for data before it will confirm if original plan will be stuck to or if the Delta variant has screwed the pooch and rules will be retained.

- UK: Sheffield, and reports emerge that a pop-up Vaccination clinic for 18's and over hits capacity mere minutes after opening. The Clinic only had 500 doses, but secured an additional 200.

- UK: Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown describes G7 Billion Vaccine pledge as "an unforgivable moral failure" going on to say: “When we needed 11 billion vaccines, we’ve only got offered a plan for 1 billion... ...then the problem will come back to haunt the richest countries because we will have contagion spreading that will hurt even the people who are vaccinated because of mutations and variants.”

- Lebanon: Administers 40,000 doses of Pfizer over the weekend in attempt to contain the pandemic.

- Brazil: President Bolsonaro receives a public fine of $110 for not wearing a facemask, having lead supporters through the streets of Sao Paulo yesterday while not following precautions.

- Russia: Rise in new daily cases now the highest for four months at 14,723.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Indeed they should talk to their physician and weigh the risks.

Of course it's also recommended to know what sort of doctor you are talking to and what their specialization is because there are lots of dissenting opinions like this.
https://www.greatermcdonoughchiro.com/dr-daves-blog/194328-autoimmune-disease-covid-19-amp-vaccinations which might not be the most valid of sources.

This would be a better source of information.

Expert Advice: Autoimmune Disease and COVID-19…What You Need to Know

On Friday, April 3, Autoimmune Association was honored to co-hosted a briefing with the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and in conjunction with the …

www.aarda.org

But even still it's important to remember that published papers have a lot of bios and incorrect conclusions.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42QuXLucH3Q


And we should not flat our reject dissenting opinions for some of them are correct

Delayed Gratification: Why it Took Everybody So Long to Acknowledge that Bacteria Cause Ulcers — Journal of Young Investigators

In 1983, Australian doctors J. Robin Warren and Barry Marshall isolated Helicobacter pylori , the bacterial cause of peptic ulcer disease (P.U.D.). However, decades passed before most doctors prescribed antibiotics to their afflicted patients. Why didn't the medical community hit itself on its coll

www.jyi.org

But this is not to say that all dissenting opinions are correct

Appetite suppression through smelling of dark chocolate correlates with changes in ghrelin in young women - PubMed

Cephalic effects on appetite are mediated by vagal tone and altered gastrointestinal hormones. The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between appetite and levels of gastrointestinal hormones after smelling chocolate and after melt-and-swallow 30 g chocolate (1.059 oz, 85%...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

And contrary to @Thalstan emotionally charge factually incorrect outburst I am not advocating against wearing masks or getting vaccinated against any treatable disease for we have to look no further then the effects of polio and measles on past generations to see their overwhelming benefit. My concern has always been that we let our emotions control our actions and do not do our do diligence in making sure the cure is not worse than the disease. That we take precautions to limit the fallout from our forward rush into new technologies for we will make mistakes. But this shouldn't stop us from also reaching for the stars, just in as safe of a way as we can.

That we should truly look back on the last years actions and see if anything made a true measurable difference or if it simply did not change the outcome and infect put us in a worse spot then if we did nothing. We have to be honest with ourselves and truly understand what did and did no work for this was just a meek preview of what is out there that can have a far worse outcome.

see if anything made a true measurable difference or if it simply did not change the outcome and infect put us in a worse spot then if we did nothing

Maybe.

But then you could just as easily say if they'd done nothing perhaps a variant might have emerged from New Zeland in the first weeks of the pandemic which might have had a 100% infection rate and a 100% fatality rate after one month of being infected and was asymptomatic up to the point it kills you, and that the current death rate could have been something like 500 million with several billion souls expected to expire in the next few months, and that it was cheaper to send the infected shovels to dig their own graves than make them vaccines as for them it would already be too late...

If we can't take strong peer-reviewed repeatable evidence from lab tests as an indication as to what would likely work in Real Life over what might not work, we can't really go making assumptions that what was executed (e.g. no masks vs masks / masks vs no masks) might have worked better one way or another if a country got the chance to do it over again. If we are to use Logic as the baseline that says "What is true in the lab may not end up true in real world situations", there is no "if we did", there is only "what we did". It's practically impossible to know what might have happened, it's only possible to know what did happen... and even then it's still pretty hard to tell what happened even when you have the final outcomes in front of you.

In regard to what did/didn't work, I'd expect scientific studies from lab tests to inform what they would be able to indicate with any accuracy did or didn't work and for a big part of known knowns they can do that right now... How would you personally go about detecting what did work compared to what didn't work IRL?

As for Emotion, this is TEST, 'y know. You want emotionless robots have a chat with ADI

 

[Bambooza]

Maybe.

But then you could just as easily say if they'd done nothing perhaps a variant might have emerged from New Zeland in the first weeks of the pandemic which might have had a 100% infection rate and a 100% fatality rate after one month of being infected and was asymptomatic up to the point it kills you, and that the current death rate could have been something like 500 million with several billion souls expected to expire in the next few months, and that it was cheaper to send the infected shovels to dig their own graves than make them vaccines as for them it would already be too late...

Thats the concern, but the opposite concern is as valid in the doing something incomplete often leads to variants that are far more potent. Take for instance superbugs that have become far more prevenient and rendering most of the antibiotics and common user medication due to their overuse and incomplete administering to the point now where doctors are being asked to not give antibiotics unless absolutely necessary with no alternative. That every action and non action has consequences and we should as a society weigh them to the best of our knowledge at the time. And then as time progresses we should be very critical of the actions and evaluate them as such. Not for the purpose of shaming our past selves but to evaluate what did and didn't work so that in the future we can make better more informed choices.

So while the hyperbole statement of not doing anything thus New Zealand developing a fatal variant being cheaper then simply hand out shovels misses the point. And that is we started out with masks not really effective to well maybe masks are effective and while we don't really know, it's better to error on the mask wearing as a possible cheap precaution then to not. (Which I know goes against the firmly held belief of the mask wearing cults ideology as a forgone unquestionable conclusion). Now that we are starting to get breathing room from the initial infection we should review and open up the full study to get how effective masks are against different infections. Its information we need going forward and we should have already had prior to this moment.

If we can't take strong peer-reviewed repeatable evidence from lab tests as an indication as to what would likely work in Real Life over what might not work, we can't really go making assumptions that what was executed (e.g. no masks vs masks / masks vs no masks) might have worked better one way or another if a country got the chance to do it over again. If we are to use Logic as the baseline, there is no may have, there is only was. It's practically impossible to know what might have happened, it's only possible to know what did... and even then it's still pretty hard to tell what happened even when you have the final outcomes in front of you.

In regard to what did/didn't work, I'd expect scientific studies from lab tests to inform what they would be able to indicate with any accuracy did or didn't work and for a big part of known knowns they can do that right now... How would you personally go about detecting what did work compared to what didn't work IRL?

We should take strong peer-reviewed repeatable evidence and apply it. But we should also be aware of the studies limitations and the possibility of it being still incorrect. We should not blind ourselves to dissenting views simply because they do not align with the dogma of public opinion. As Derek says towards the end of the youtube video "As flawed as our science may be it is far and away more reliable than any other way of knowing that we have". That finding the truth is hard and we should not delude ourselves in believing we know unequivocally because we read or heard something that supports it. That truths are only as strong as the challenges against them. And so in regards to masks, lockdowns, and social distancing we need to challenging the assumptions and review their effectiveness. That its not a you and I challenging but as society we need to pay so that the studies can be conducted and the researched performed.

So no population centers cannot repeat the test case again to see if it would generate a different outcome. But they don't we have thousands of data points from thousands of different scenarios and so we can look at lots of different scenarios and see how it impacted the spread of the virus with in that population group.

I would take places like Italy and see if their lockdown reduced the number of deaths in 2020 vs places like Sweden. I would take places like New York and California that had strict mask wearing ordinances against other states that did not impose a mask restriction and compare the number of deaths. As I have said before from a data standpoint we have a huge sampling of data points to draw from that far exceeds any test case we could afforded to conduct. Now that needs to happen is to collect the data and analysis it.

As for Emotion, this is TEST, 'y know. You want emotionless robots have a chat with ADI

True, but I would have hoped before it lead to name calling it would be based upon something factual.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Thats the concern, but the opposite concern is as valid in the doing something incomplete often leads to variants that are far more potent. Take for instance superbugs that have become far more prevenient and rendering most of the antibiotics and common user medication due to their overuse and incomplete administering to the point now where doctors are being asked to not give antibiotics unless absolutely necessary with no alternative. That every action and non action has consequences and we should as a society weigh them to the best of our knowledge at the time. And then as time progresses we should be very critical of the actions and evaluate them as such. Not for the purpose of shaming our past selves but to evaluate what did and didn't work so that in the future we can make better more informed choices.

So while the hyperbole statement of not doing anything thus New Zealand developing a fatal variant being cheaper then simply hand out shovels misses the point. And that is we started out with masks not really effective to well maybe masks are effective and while we don't really know, it's better to error on the mask wearing as a possible cheap precaution then to not. (Which I know goes against the firmly held belief of the mask wearing cults ideology as a forgone unquestionable conclusion). Now that we are starting to get breathing room from the initial infection we should review and open up the full study to get how effective masks are against different infections. Its information we need going forward and we should have already had prior to this moment.




We should take strong peer-reviewed repeatable evidence and apply it. But we should also be aware of the studies limitations and the possibility of it being still incorrect. We should not blind ourselves to dissenting views simply because they do not align with the dogma of public opinion. As Derek says towards the end of the youtube video "As flawed as our science may be it is far and away more reliable than any other way of knowing that we have". That finding the truth is hard and we should not delude ourselves in believing we know unequivocally because we read or heard something that supports it. That truths are only as strong as the challenges against them. And so in regards to masks, lockdowns, and social distancing we need to challenging the assumptions and review their effectiveness. That its not a you and I challenging but as society we need to pay so that the studies can be conducted and the researched performed.

So no population centers cannot repeat the test case again to see if it would generate a different outcome. But they don't we have thousands of data points from thousands of different scenarios and so we can look at lots of different scenarios and see how it impacted the spread of the virus with in that population group.

I would take places like Italy and see if their lockdown reduced the number of deaths in 2020 vs places like Sweden. I would take places like New York and California that had strict mask wearing ordinances against other states that did not impose a mask restriction and compare the number of deaths. As I have said before from a data standpoint we have a huge sampling of data points to draw from that far exceeds any test case we could afforded to conduct. Now that needs to happen is to collect the data and analysis it.



True, but I would have hoped before it lead to name calling it would be based upon something factual.

But in the same way that the Lab isn't Real Life, Sweden isn't Italy and New York State isn't Texas etc etc etc and there could be something which is common in one of those countries/populations which is not in another which is the thing which is the lynchpin of why it was worse or better in one place than the other, like more tomatoes or garlic being used in Italy, or the UK drives on the left while France drives on the right, or that lilies grow naturally in the wild in Australia but not in Russia...? The data-points IRL are near infinite - down to the makeup of the chemical composition of the materials which make the buildings the people in those places live in. You might get lucky and hit a few of the data-points you think you'll need, but can you extrapolate all the variables?

True, but I would have hoped before it lead to name calling it would be based upon something factual.

Apologies for my confusion, the lab confirmed information is the factual information in this discussion is it not? The "What if?" is not a fact, it is a contrary question...? To this point the lab confirmed facts are... facts... so when does the might not become a fact? Once it is reviewed from further lab and real life data... but you need that data to occur or it will always be "What if?" will it not...?

(I don't condone name calling, by the way.)

Further to that, if my supposition that NZ may have produced a world ending variant without its very successful lockdown is Hyperbole, "what if NZ's lockdown didn't help as much as if it had not locked down, though" is just as hyperbolic, is it not, as it is just a mirrored version of my hyperbole - I could have said "What if NZ didn't lockdown and they got next to no cases and next to no deaths anyway?" Same question in the same spirit and just as hyperbolic?

I hope the above two questions may help explain/answer how frustrations have surfaced in this particular discussion...?

But as you do say on implementation and review with no assumption there is a confirmed answer even when things are functioning as expected, I don't argue with that as I was kinda under the impression that is sort of how classical science works, hence the delay in implementing masks for so long in the first place as the evidence had not yet been obtained to support their use until it had...

So in that case... no further questions...

 

[Vavrik]

Of course it's also recommended to know what sort of doctor you are talking to and what their specialization is because there are lots of dissenting opinions like this.
https://www.greatermcdonoughchiro.com/dr-daves-blog/194328-autoimmune-disease-covid-19-amp-vaccinations which might not be the most valid of sources.

I'm sorry, I thought I specifically said physician. A chiropractor is not a physician, they are chiropractors.

 

[Radegast74]

I'm sorry, I thought I specifically said physician. A chiropractor is not a physician, they are chiropractors.

^ This times 10,000

It's like asking a weirdo nurse if the vaccine will magnetize you...you're gonna get a weirdo answer.

Anti-vax nurse hilariously attempts to prove COVID vaccines make you magnetic

Sorry, the vax will not turn you into Magneto.

mashable.com

 

[Radegast74]

I missed from Tuesday because of recovering from dental surgery. Very un-fun.

Oh no! I hope you are feeling better!

 

[Vavrik]

Oh no! I hope you are feeling better!

Thanks, I'm doing OK as long as I can eat enough soft food. I was able to get some soup down today though so... progress.

 

[Bambooza]

I'm sorry, I thought I specifically said physician. A chiropractor is not a physician, they are chiropractors.

Lol, indeed it was an opinion piece from someone I would not give much if any credit to on the subject they were writing about. Not that I do not enjoy a good adjustment but I have found that a lot of them can get a little to much into the homeopathic as the best solution. While there have been a number of useable treatments given the lack of blind studies it's hard to know what is and is not effective.

But in the same way that the Lab isn't Real Life, Sweden isn't Italy and New York State isn't Texas etc etc etc and there could be something which is common in one of those countries/populations which is not in another which is the thing which is the lynchpin of why it was worse or better in one place than the other, like more tomatoes or garlic being used in Italy, or the UK drives on the left while France drives on the right, or that lilies grow naturally in the wild in Australia but not in Russia...? The data-points IRL are near infinite - down to the makeup of the chemical composition of the materials which make the buildings the people in those places live in. You might get lucky and hit a few of the data-points you think you'll need, but can you extrapolate all the variables?

Welcome to the world of big data where the goal is not to look for perfectly controlled identical variables but to look at trends and common factors across pools. It could be that while Sweden and Italy do not have any overlap it could very well be that there is some overlap between Sweden and UK and UK and Italy. It's the same problem even small clinical trials have when testing out new drugs as any perceived side effects can be caused by the drug or it could simply be caused by simply being a part of the study and a degree of stress. So while there is no way to isolate a specific test parameter when dealing with such large data sets, the good news is that there is still a lot of similarities within a population region that is not as defined by country borders as we would like to think.

Apologies for my confusion, the lab confirmed information is the factual information in this discussion is it not? The "What if?" is not a fact, it is a contrary question...? To this point the lab confirmed facts are... facts... so when does the might not become a fact? Once it is reviewed from further lab and real life data... but you need that data to occur or it will always be "What if?" will it not...?

For the most part I would say that lab confirmed data is confirmed data until it's not. But to issue comes in when lab data results are projected far beyond the scope of the test. IE in this case the lab test confirms that when mask material is placed between physically separate rats it has shown to have a significant reduction in the spread of the virus. The only thing this study shows us is if the only pathway for infection is by airborne viruses then a perfectly sealed mask reduces your chances of being infected. It does nothing to show us how this compares to other possible pathways nor the percent effectiveness of each possible pathways. Thus if airborne transmission is only at a 1% transmission rate and you reduce that 1% by 98% you still have a 99.92% chance of being infected if the virus is present. Thus in this scenario masks are not effective in preventing the transmission of the virus. By the same theoretical made up numbers we could say that airborn direct transmission is 99% of all possible infection pathways thus reducing that by 98% would significantly reduce your chance of infecting or being infected. But without knowing the risk factors of transmission factors we cannot say how effective masks are. This is the bases of my whole argument that while we know some parts of the picture with pretty easily reproduced testing we do not know how they fit into the whole nor what part they play in virus transmission.

Even studies on well known viruses like AIDS and Ebola but even here there have been some edge cases that have called into question our certainty in regards to these virus transmissions. In fact with Ebola its still not sure what animal species continues to be the harbor for the virus nor how it makes its jump to humans.

(I don't condone name calling, by the way.)

Further to that, if my supposition that NZ may have produced a world ending variant without its very successful lockdown is Hyperbole, "what if NZ's lockdown didn't help as much as if it had not locked down, though" is just as hyperbolic, is it not, as it is just a mirrored version of my hyperbole - I could have said "What if NZ didn't lockdown and they got next to no cases and next to no deaths anyway?" Same question in the same spirit and just as hyperbolic?

They are both hyperbolic and both as meaningless when taken for their face value. But I don't think they were meant to be taken on face value but an attempt to use worse case scenarios to provide meaning to a arguments point. While not very effective due to the absurdity of the example they still have some merit due to the lack of data.

I hope the above two questions may help explain/answer how frustrations have surfaced in this particular discussion...?

But as you do say on implementation and review with no assumption there is a confirmed answer even when things are functioning as expected, I don't argue with that as I was kinda under the impression that is sort of how classical science works, hence the delay in implementing masks for so long in the first place as the evidence had not yet been obtained to support their use until it had...

So in that case... no further questions...

I would still argue that even to this day no evidence has been obtained to support their use and their use was simply a politically convenient way to show action that had little cost. That both sides of the political spectrum as expected have take up the mask fight not on its merits or scientific value but as a means to physically identify each other so that they can assume their own moral superiority over the other verbally. That this inflighting does nothing to help the cause and because of it becoming so politically charged any research done that uniquivitly proves one side or the other is now suspect. Which in the end is sad as we really do need a quantitative answer so that we can be better prepared next time.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Lol, indeed it was an opinion piece from someone I would not give much if any credit to on the subject they were writing about. Not that I do not enjoy a good adjustment but I have found that a lot of them can get a little to much into the homeopathic as the best solution. While there have been a number of useable treatments given the lack of blind studies it's hard to know what is and is not effective.




Welcome to the world of big data where the goal is not to look for perfectly controlled identical variables but to look at trends and common factors across pools. It could be that while Sweden and Italy do not have any overlap it could very well be that there is some overlap between Sweden and UK and UK and Italy. It's the same problem even small clinical trials have when testing out new drugs as any perceived side effects can be caused by the drug or it could simply be caused by simply being a part of the study and a degree of stress. So while there is no way to isolate a specific test parameter when dealing with such large data sets, the good news is that there is still a lot of similarities within a population region that is not as defined by country borders as we would like to think.




For the most part I would say that lab confirmed data is confirmed data until it's not. But to issue comes in when lab data results are projected far beyond the scope of the test. IE in this case the lab test confirms that when mask material is placed between physically separate rats it has shown to have a significant reduction in the spread of the virus. The only thing this study shows us is if the only pathway for infection is by airborne viruses then a perfectly sealed mask reduces your chances of being infected. It does nothing to show us how this compares to other possible pathways nor the percent effectiveness of each possible pathways. Thus if airborne transmission is only at a 1% transmission rate and you reduce that 1% by 98% you still have a 99.92% chance of being infected if the virus is present. Thus in this scenario masks are not effective in preventing the transmission of the virus. By the same theoretical made up numbers we could say that airborn direct transmission is 99% of all possible infection pathways thus reducing that by 98% would significantly reduce your chance of infecting or being infected. But without knowing the risk factors of transmission factors we cannot say how effective masks are. This is the bases of my whole argument that while we know some parts of the picture with pretty easily reproduced testing we do not know how they fit into the whole nor what part they play in virus transmission.

Even studies on well known viruses like AIDS and Ebola but even here there have been some edge cases that have called into question our certainty in regards to these virus transmissions. In fact with Ebola its still not sure what animal species continues to be the harbor for the virus nor how it makes its jump to humans.



They are both hyperbolic and both as meaningless when taken for their face value. But I don't think they were meant to be taken on face value but an attempt to use worse case scenarios to provide meaning to a arguments point. While not very effective due to the absurdity of the example they still have some merit due to the lack of data.




I would still argue that even to this day no evidence has been obtained to support their use and their use was simply a politically convenient way to show action that had little cost. That both sides of the political spectrum as expected have take up the mask fight not on its merits or scientific value but as a means to physically identify each other so that they can assume their own moral superiority over the other verbally. That this inflighting does nothing to help the cause and because of it becoming so politically charged any research done that uniquivitly proves one side or the other is now suspect. Which in the end is sad as we really do need a quantitative answer so that we can be better prepared next time.

Ah, righto. In that case I think I should leave those better suited to thinking about this kind of thing to it and I'll be getting back to being an observer and drinking my bottles of cider - they're not going to drink themselves!

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Monday 14th of June.

- World: 176,057,166 confirmed cases and 3,805,828 confirmed deaths.

- Variants: Delta strain (B.1.617 first detected in India) now present in 74 countries and heading toward being the worlds dominant variant.

- US: Concerns are raised over Delta, it currently accounts for 10% of cases but is doubling every two weeks.

- England: Delays lockdown lifting by 4 weeks as Delta variant retains a firm grip with projections showing 15,000 new cases a day by June 21st., the original unlock day. The next review will be in line for the 19th of July. Criticism is raised over leaky boarders which allowed the variant into the country. One of the main threats is the link between cases and hospitalisations has been reduced but not removed and the threat to overwhelming the health service remains if lockdown is relaxed now, as analysis predicts a case load as high as in the first wave in March 2020. Vaccinations to be opened up to anyone over the age of 23 tomorrow.

- UK: A report from the Zoe Covid Symptom Study suggests loss of smell and taste no longer most common symptoms, being replaced by a headache and runny nose as the Delta variant infects the more social unvaccinated younger age groups. "This variant seems to be working slightly differently. People might think they've just got some sort of seasonal cold and they still go out to parties and they might spread around to six other people. We think this is fuelling a lot of the problem. It might just feel like a bad cold or some funny 'off' feeling - but do stay at home and do get a test."

- UK: Reports highest new daily cases since March.

- India: Reports lowest new daily cases since March.

- Germany: Reports fewer than 1000 new daily cases for the first time in 8 months.

- Vaccines: Novavax, and late stage trials show it to be more than 90% effective and 100% effective at preventing moderate to severe cases.

- Thailand: up to 20 hospitals delay vaccination appointments by 1 week citing delays in delivery of doses as the cause.

- Russia: Moscow, and the Mayor announces anyone who has been vaccinated is entered into a prize draw to win a car, to incentivise take-up.

- Indonesia: Suspects peak of the current wave will not break until July and is in a race between increasing hospital capacity and rising new cases.

- COVAX: WHO official indicates Africa will be first in line for the new doses earmarked by the G7, as it has identified it as one of the most vulnerable and underserved areas.

- Afghanistan: The two main hospitals in the county turns away patents as they hit capacity and run low on supplies of oxygen.

- Portugal: President pledges no return to restrictions despite rising cases.

 

[Vavrik]

Lol, indeed it was an opinion piece from someone I would not give much if any credit to on the subject they were writing about. Not that I do not enjoy a good adjustment but I have found that a lot of them can get a little to much into the homeopathic as the best solution. While there have been a number of useable treatments given the lack of blind studies it's hard to know what is and is not effective.




Welcome to the world of big data where the goal is not to look for perfectly controlled identical variables but to look at trends and common factors across pools. It could be that while Sweden and Italy do not have any overlap it could very well be that there is some overlap between Sweden and UK and UK and Italy. It's the same problem even small clinical trials have when testing out new drugs as any perceived side effects can be caused by the drug or it could simply be caused by simply being a part of the study and a degree of stress. So while there is no way to isolate a specific test parameter when dealing with such large data sets, the good news is that there is still a lot of similarities within a population region that is not as defined by country borders as we would like to think.




For the most part I would say that lab confirmed data is confirmed data until it's not. But to issue comes in when lab data results are projected far beyond the scope of the test. IE in this case the lab test confirms that when mask material is placed between physically separate rats it has shown to have a significant reduction in the spread of the virus. The only thing this study shows us is if the only pathway for infection is by airborne viruses then a perfectly sealed mask reduces your chances of being infected. It does nothing to show us how this compares to other possible pathways nor the percent effectiveness of each possible pathways. Thus if airborne transmission is only at a 1% transmission rate and you reduce that 1% by 98% you still have a 99.92% chance of being infected if the virus is present. Thus in this scenario masks are not effective in preventing the transmission of the virus. By the same theoretical made up numbers we could say that airborn direct transmission is 99% of all possible infection pathways thus reducing that by 98% would significantly reduce your chance of infecting or being infected. But without knowing the risk factors of transmission factors we cannot say how effective masks are. This is the bases of my whole argument that while we know some parts of the picture with pretty easily reproduced testing we do not know how they fit into the whole nor what part they play in virus transmission.

Even studies on well known viruses like AIDS and Ebola but even here there have been some edge cases that have called into question our certainty in regards to these virus transmissions. In fact with Ebola its still not sure what animal species continues to be the harbor for the virus nor how it makes its jump to humans.



They are both hyperbolic and both as meaningless when taken for their face value. But I don't think they were meant to be taken on face value but an attempt to use worse case scenarios to provide meaning to a arguments point. While not very effective due to the absurdity of the example they still have some merit due to the lack of data.




I would still argue that even to this day no evidence has been obtained to support their use and their use was simply a politically convenient way to show action that had little cost. That both sides of the political spectrum as expected have take up the mask fight not on its merits or scientific value but as a means to physically identify each other so that they can assume their own moral superiority over the other verbally. That this inflighting does nothing to help the cause and because of it becoming so politically charged any research done that uniquivitly proves one side or the other is now suspect. Which in the end is sad as we really do need a quantitative answer so that we can be better prepared next time.

Ok, I am having a real problem understanding your position. It seems that you're saying that nobody has written a paper to show that masks work. Then I don't know what you're reading because they have been writing that since March last year and in increasing numbers since. I have posted studies, in fact you yourself have posted at least one study that's conclusion was to wear a mask, so it's kind of confusing what you're reading when you read these studies.

(you posted this to support your position)

Do Masks Work In India’s Air Pollution? – Smart Air

We fit-tested 18 pollution masks available in India. The open-source data shows that some of the cheapest masks are among the most effective.

smartairfilters.com

Please read the part at the bottom that starts with the line "Bottom Line"

You arbitrarily disagreed with your own evidence?

 

[Vavrik]

Ah, righto. In that case I think I should leave those better suited to thinking about this kind of thing to it and I'll be getting back to being an observer and drinking my bottles of cider - they're not going to drink themselves!

... wait, you can drink and still express your opinion! It is appreciated! And it might even get funnier if you were drinking.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

... wait, you can drink and still express your opinion! It is appreciated!

The world is full of people doing that, it's what bars are for I've always been an observer, as with Quantum someone has to see it happen or it all happens and all doesn't happen...

In the words of the great Roy Walker (from TV's Catchphrase): "Say what you see".

 

[Bambooza]

Ok, I am having a real problem understanding your position. It seems that you're saying that nobody has written a paper to show that masks work. Then I don't know what you're reading because they have been writing that since March last year and in increasing numbers since. I have posted studies, in fact you yourself have posted at least one study that's conclusion was to wear a mask, so it's kind of confusing what you're reading when you read these studies.

(you posted this to support your position)

Do Masks Work In India’s Air Pollution? – Smart Air

We fit-tested 18 pollution masks available in India. The open-source data shows that some of the cheapest masks are among the most effective.

smartairfilters.com

Please read the part at the bottom that starts with the line "Bottom Line"

You arbitrarily disagreed with your own evidence?

I do not believe I have. The paper you listed and I found was in regards to inhalation of air pollution which was proven and rightly so as it also does not contradict past studies on the effectiveness in respirators in their use in preventing foreign molecules form being deposited into the bronchi and causing irritation, infection, or cancer. In these studies the clear scope of the study is defined and incompasing of the possible pathways for inhaling foreign material into the lungs. It also builds on other studies that show the presence of foreign material in the lungs leads to a number of ailments. So these studies both cover how the material gets into the lungs and what happens when they do. Thus the scope of the studies and what can be said about wearing a mask to protect your lungs align with the information provided.

But there seems to be some confusion as to my stance. And so I shall attempt to present it as clearly as possible.

There are no studies that show the pathways for viruses entering the body nor the effectiveness of each way when it comes to the Covid family of viruses. Until we know all the pathways and how effective each one is in the introduction of viruses into the body it's impossible to say how effective mask usage is. Until we can say unequivocally that inhaling airborne virus contained in aerosolized water droplets leads to the highest virus loading compared to other means of infection in normal daily activities then it's impossible to know the effectiveness of mask usage in controlling the spread of the Covid virus.

As of this moment I have not come across any study that attempts to break down the possible pathways and their effectiveness, until then my saying do not lick door knobs and you'll be more protected than wearing a mask has just as much creditability then youre saying wearing masks saves lives. We have nothing to base it upon as there is nothing that connects mask effectiveness to the risk factor masks protect against.

All I am saying is I have no clue as to the true effectiveness of masks and anyone at this point attempting to say they know unequivocally without the pathway study is full of shit.

I do not believe we have the technology at this point in time to truly formulate the requirements for an effective study or it would have been done. The best we can hope for is to draw some conclusions to possible mask effectiveness by comparing infection rates in regions that did and did not institute mask mandates. While its data results is not as good as doing a full study its still a valid conclusion until such a time as we can do the full pathway infection study.

 

[Bambooza]

The world is full of people doing that, it's what bars are for I've always been an observer, as with Quantum someone has to see it happen or it all happens and all doesn't happen...

In the words of the great Roy Walker (from TV's Catchphrase): "Say what you see".

Sounds like a trip to the UK is in order. To take this wall flower and bring him onto the stage so he can shine brightly.