I think the main concern with this finding is Delta has shone the harsh light of reality on the dream of Hurd Immunity. Not this time bub, herd immunity is still the myth it has always been, try again.
What July 4 event? 882 people? Sounds like a small sample pool. Was this in a town? County? State? How many of these people were vaccinated?
So, my rational thought process was:
And here is a check up one week later:
www.cnn.com
We are experiencing a wave of Delta in the US. The July 4th event he spoke of was the wake up call (Provincetown July 4th event). That was Delta. 882 people got sick, 75% of whom were vaccinated. The outcome of this was the CDC recognized that the Delta variant was able to infect, and be spread by vaccinated people - although it prevented serious disease and death in the vaccinated population.
Thanks for the context.
I hate politicizing this but well....this whole pandemic has been political since day one.So, my rational thought process was:
a. There is a highly contagious disease "in the wild";
b. based on previous experience, most cases of the disease get reported 2-3 weeks after the person was first infected;
c. July 4th (big holiday in the US) + 3 weeks = July 25th
so hey, let's see what direction cases are going?
Add the the above:
d. There is a *new* mutation of the virus;
e. This virus is even more contagious/transmissable than the original virus;
f. Huge numbers of people in certain states have *NOT* gotten vaccinated;
g. Because of various cognitive errors, mask wearing and other precautions have been thrown by the wayside; &
h. Large percentages of the population are both i) at risk & ii) engaging in high risk behaviors,
therefore, it seemed reasonable to expect that certain locations would be likely to experience outbreaks. So, it seemed like a good time to look at the data!
You are right that others may be trying to twist the data certain ways, but nothing beats have a hypothesis AND a mechanism of action.
And here is a check up one week later:
here is Alabama...which way is this going?
View attachment 21118
A news report stated that Vermont was "the most vaccinated state" with an overall percentage of around 67% of the population vaccinated.
How are they doing?
View attachment 21119
If there is any saving grace, a year later, it is that the hospital ICU treatment has gotten much better, and deaths have dropped off. However, if the ICU is full, and you can't get that treatment, you are going to be in a tough spot.
Here is the best opinion piece I've read recently:
ER Doctor: 'What a senseless, self-inflicted wound' | CNN
Alex Busko, sharing what he's seen as unvaccinated patients get admitted into the hospital with Covid-19 complications, writes that he lost count of how many young healthy Covid-19 patients he cared for in the emergency room who just never imagined that they -- of all people -- could become...
www.businessinsider.com
It's not a sample. It's the entire pool of people connected to a supposed super-spreader event.
No. 882 people tested positive. The vast majority never showed any symptoms. Only 5 people were hospitalized and 4 of those were vaccinated. No one died.
www.livescience.com
It shows that the Herd Immunity dream is still just a dream. The idea was you hit 70% vaccinated who can't harbour the infection and it runs out of easy routes to infect vulnerable people who can't/won't get vaccinated and the epidemic in that area cannot continue, there is an immune wall which it cannot pass - but that doesn't exist if the vaccinated are still passing it on to and between each other just as easily as the unvaccinated, although it is not seriously harming those who get it, they are still getting it and passing it on, until it hits someone it can harm.It's not a sample. It's the entire pool of people connected to a supposed super-spreader event.
No. 882 people tested positive. The vast majority never showed any symptoms. Only 5 people were hospitalized and 4 of those were vaccinated. No one died.
This is why I said the field has lost its roots in science and instead is pandering to politics. We know that the tests we have amplify any covid in anyone's system so much that it will give a positive when in reality, a doctor would call them negative. This is what has screwed with our statistical analysis, along with paying hospitals more to report covid cases from motorcycle deaths, etc.
Point is, here in the US, the pandemic has been so penetrated by politics you cannot take at face value ANYTHING reported by the press. The fact the press daily contradict one another should be enough to realize this is not science.
Testing everyone connected to a supposed super-spreader event tells us virtually nothing, because our tests tell us virtually nothing. THAT is the only scientific claim one can make here. The fact 4 people could get sick enough to show symptoms who had had the vaccine shows that the vaccines do not protect from the delta variant completely. Note, they don't protect from the original competely either, so really we haven't learned anything here.
How 350 vaccinated people caught COVID-19 in huge Cape Cod outbreak
The outbreak spurred health officials to change mask guidelines for vaccinated people.
Honestly...They can call it the MAGA GOP Vaccine for all I care if it'll convince Trump supporters to take the shot.Who says this has been political? LOL
Sarah Huckabee Sanders boasted of getting a 'Trump vaccine,' part of a campaign to claim credit for the shots
Trump's former press secretary repeatedly referred to the "Trump vaccine." But COVID-19 vaccinations were developed by global teams of scientists.
I'm not sure what you're getting at here. Saying that testing tells us 'virtually nothing' is a bold statement to make.
Loki haha 
but still pretty gnarly) and tho we're all Vaxxed cause you know we're not idiots, all plans have been canceled to visit jobsites in Canada and Mexico, and all family meets have been canceled until Covid-19 infection rates flatten out. Right now things are just moving too quickly and just too sketchy to take many chances with our young children older family.
The judgement of CDC after reviewing the details of this particular event was to offer their latest guidance that people should begin masking again. This event is the justification for that guidance they gave us half week ago. My point is that we know virtually NOTHING from this event because 5 sick people out of 882 can't be blamed on Delta, nor on lack of vaccination. It is not statistically valid to draw either of these conclusions from this data, when the efficacy rate of the vaccine is so much less than what we're seeing in this instance. However, CDC's statement is that this is exactly what they have done--they have concluded not from statistical analysis--which can never reach this conclusion--but simple CYA, put your masks back on.
I wouldn't say it's politics, I'll say it's poor science. They've taken a "We don't know what's going on, oh whelp...back to wearing masks" approach. Honestly I'm fine with it, wearing masks doesn't harm me. I understand people's frustration if it's an actual decree (wear masks or else!). If it's just a guideline, I have no problem with that.
That's pretty much what I said... For the record, there is a large gulf between people getting sick, and people getting hospitalized.
