Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Vavrik

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I'm seeing a lot of "I've gone 2.5 years and it's finally got me" posts on my socials from people in the UK - Seems it's ripping through the nation right now and the incumbent runners of the country have sleep-walked right in to another national crisis.
I'm not sure what part is the government's fault, but they certainly need to stop Johnsoning it all up.
But honestly I don't think it's all that bad. It's certainly not good. It's just that the data shows people getting sick, and some even going to hospital - but they don't seem to be dying from it like they were before. The biggest problem is that it's still mutating, and some of the mutations start to grow legs. It's anyone's guess what the next month, or year, or whatnot will bring.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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I'm not sure what part is the government's fault, but they certainly need to stop Johnsoning it all up.
But honestly I don't think it's all that bad. It's certainly not good. It's just that the data shows people getting sick, and some even going to hospital - but they don't seem to be dying from it like they were before. The biggest problem is that it's still mutating, and some of the mutations start to grow legs. It's anyone's guess what the next month, or year, or whatnot will bring.
Yep, it's new mutants BA.2.12, BA.4 and BA.5 which have been named as the driver for the latest wave. There is a lot of noise about it but no action. I'm still wearing my home made cloth mask from 2020, next to no one else is though and even then it's probably obsolete by now, but something is always better than nothing...

In the UK we dropped daily figures at the end of June 2022, it's weekly numbers here now.

From the last figures of 691 deaths over 7 days (England Only) it works out at 98 dead a day but that's averaging, it's not clear if some days had more fatalities than others of if it's going up or down.
 
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Vavrik

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From the last figures of 691 deaths over 7 days (England Only) it works out at 98 dead a day but that's averaging, it's not clear if some days had more fatalities than others of if it's going up or down.
This is what it's doing as of yesterday. As you said, UK is not reporting every day. Some others if you look at it do the same. Data is normalized per 1 million population. Scroll down.

deaths_raw7Day_owid.png


Source for the chart is Our World in Data. Link below. Data comes from John Hopkins University.

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Deaths usually get recorded on a daily basis, though the numbers are often reported weekly. Saves money.
Canada has a population of 38 million, so this represents about 136 deaths from COVID yesterday.
UK has a population of 67 million, so 127 deaths as of a few days ago.

It will be interesting to check this link next Sunday, and the following weeks.
It doesn't look bad, even for Canada, but the infection rates are high - so things can change quickly.

 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Ah.

Ahaaaa.

Haha...

COVID 1.JPG

COVID 2.JPG


I'm so far testing negative, medium cold symptoms for the person who has the positive so far. It came via their work, which we always thought was going to be the case - in one week it's taken out 43% of their staffing 🤧. I'm a little chesty so keeping an eye on that even though negative for now.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Is this some kind of British term for "I look a bit like Vavrik did several weeks(tm) ago?
If so, I have a solution for that which doesn't involve duct tape.
Ooo-er, I think I need my eyebrows too much to be having the Duct Tape waxing treatment yet.

In the UK there is a cough medicine company called Vicks which I believe is an American brand...? In the 60's, 70's and 80's they had a series of ads on TV which got the term "chesty cough" into the cultural consciousness so if you say you're a bit chesty in the UK it's referring to having or feeling like you are on the way to a chesty cough :) Might be a regional thing to where I am though...?
 
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Vavrik

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Ooo-er, I think I need my eyebrows too much to be having the Duct Tape waxing treatment yet.
Well I meant you wrap the duct tape around your stomach... I mean don't do that either.
In the UK there is a cough medicine company called Vicks which I believe is an American brand...? In the 60's, 70's and 80's they had a series of ads on TV which got the term "chesty cough" into the cultural consciousness so if you say you're a bit chesty in the UK it's referring to having or feeling like you are on the way to a chesty cough :) Might be a regional thing to where I am though...?
Ah, I remember Vicks cough drops, tasted like menthol and cherry that reminded me of Vicks VapoRub (menthol and camphor) so I didn't like them much. But it stopped you from coughing for a few minutes.

We usually just call it a chest cough this side of the pond. If it doesn't go away in a few days or so, or your nose gets snotty it's called the crud. You went to work anyway and everyone in the office got sick but nobody remembered that you started it all. That is how fun the endemic phase can be. Guess what a bunch of the virus's are called that causes that kind of cough and cold symptoms?
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Well I meant you wrap the duct tape around your stomach... I mean don't do that either.

Ah, I remember Vicks cough drops, tasted like menthol and cherry that reminded me of Vicks VapoRub (menthol and camphor) so I didn't like them much. But it stopped you from coughing for a few minutes.

We usually just call it a chest cough this side of the pond. If it doesn't go away in a few days or so, or your nose gets snotty it's called the crud. You went to work anyway and everyone in the office got sick but nobody remembered that you started it all. That is how fun the endemic phase can be. Guess what a bunch of the virus's are called that causes that kind of cough and cold symptoms?
Ah, i'm guessing that'd Coronavirus....?
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Epidemiologists including one behind influential 2020 research paper investigating potential seasonal nature of the virus, say evidence gained since suggests COVID-19 may never reach a seasonal cycle of peaks and troughs:

 
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Bambooza

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Epidemiologists including one behind influential 2020 research paper investigating potential seasonal nature of the virus, say evidence gained since suggests COVID-19 may never reach a seasonal cycle of peaks and troughs:


Ahh, the guardian how you like to try and block things behind paywalls but still send over the whole article first. Still an interesting read


“We’ve got a tool that is really good at stopping the old folks from dying. We’ve more or less given up on the idea of mass immunisation to control the spread of infection. Vaccinating everyone every three months is just not feasible.”
And this is troubling as I too figured it would reach a seasonal wave much like influenza

“I would’ve thought it would have reached a steady state by now,” he said. “It seems the opposite is the case.”
And this is great news.

Seasonal flu has been a benchmark for Covid since the earliest phase of the pandemic and in the spring a threshold was crossed and Covid became less deadly than seasonal flu for all age groups.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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Other member of the households symptoms appear to be abating a little, still coughing but blowing nose more often than coughing and lateral flow tests are showing positive instantly, no waiting around 15 minutes it's two lines right away.

I'm still testing negative but am developing a sore throat. Most likely COVID but unsure as it was the hottest day of the year today so all bets are off as to what's causing any ailment right now. Tomorrow is going to be up to 43c and the hottest day in UK recorded history, so not a great day for the illness to break but we roll with the punches.
 
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Bambooza

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Other member of the households symptoms appear to be abating a little, still coughing but blowing nose more often than coughing and lateral flow tests are showing positive instantly, no waiting around 15 minutes it's two lines right away.

I'm still testing negative but am developing a sore throat. Most likely COVID but unsure as it was the hottest day of the year today so all bets are off as to what's causing any ailment right now. Tomorrow is going to be up to 43c and the hottest day in UK recorded history, so not a great day for the illness to break but we roll with the punches.
Dang, 43c? Are you guys in the desert now? I would figure being so far north it wouldn't get that hot there.
 

Vavrik

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I'm still testing negative but am developing a sore throat. Most likely COVID but unsure as it was the hottest day of the year today so all bets are off as to what's causing any ailment right now. Tomorrow is going to be up to 43c and the hottest day in UK recorded history, so not a great day for the illness to break but we roll with the punches.
Since I am from Canada, but now live south of Houston, Texas I can sympathize. It took me 3 years to get used to existing in temperatures over 35C. Make sure you drink water. both you and your wife need a lot more than the kids will. Then the rest of the week looks a lot more normal for you.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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Since I am from Canada, but now live south of Houston, Texas I can sympathize. It took me 3 years to get used to existing in temperatures over 35C. Make sure you drink water. both you and your wife need a lot more than the kids will. Then the rest of the week looks a lot more normal for you.
Many thanks for the tips, we've filed the fridge with every spare bottle for cool water as in the sun yesterday the cold taps were running warm.

Dang, 43c? Are you guys in the desert now? I would figure being so far north it wouldn't get that hot there.
Apparently the Gulf Stream is being particularly active and pulling moar heat up further up the country, combined with overspill from the heatwave in Europe its going to be a big one. I remember when 33c was considered wildly excessive. The fridges at the local shop have apready broken down, they are just not designed for 35+ ans we got over 38 yesterday.

A national emergency Level 4 has neen declaired, the scale was bought in last year and goes 0 to 4... I see a lot of sitting aroind being done today :-)
 
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Bambooza

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Many thanks for the tips, we've filed the fridge with every spare bottle for cool water as in the sun yesterday the cold taps were running warm.


Apparently the Gulf Stream is being particularly active and pulling moar heat up further up the country, combined with overspill from the heatwave in Europe its going to be a big one. I remember when 33c was considered wildly excessive. The fridges at the local shop have apready broken down, they are just not designed for 35+ ans we got over 38 yesterday.

A national emergency Level 4 has neen declaired, the scale was bought in last year and goes 0 to 4... I see a lot of sitting aroind being done today :-)

I can see if you're not used to such wild swings in temperature it can be brutal. Here it does from -23c to 46c over the course of a year with a week pause in the pleasant range of a week or two for spring and fall. One thing I still cannot wrap my head around is it's not uncommon for those who work outside to wear not just long sleeve shirts but sweaters and sweatpants and sometimes multiple layers during the summer days.

The good news is the high temperatures should help combat covid19.
 

Vavrik

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One thing I still cannot wrap my head around is it's not uncommon for those who work outside to wear not just long sleeve shirts but sweaters and sweatpants and sometimes multiple layers during the summer days.
It's a bit counterintuitive, but the clothing you wear can keep the heat out better than skin. Linen is best, but cotton can work too if it ventilates. The layers are for insulation and protection from direct sun exposure for long periods of time. Also you should wear a hat that provides shade for your noggin and the back of your neck. Look for instance, at what Arabic folks wear. It's not for nothing they wear light colored layers.
 
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Birx admits she tampered with the data and intentionally lied about the 15 day lock down, knowing she was going to find a way to extend it.
 
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Vavrik

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Birx is intitled to her opinion. So is everyone else. Mine is that sciences in general should not become a political issue. I won't be buying that book.

Remember Ron Paul? I'm not a fan of politics by video either, but this is the way he wants to do it. First part of this video where he talks about her and her book. Most of what he's saying sounds reasonable.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXzHBUuo62U
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Other member of houshold still testing positive, kid still coughing and had a rough night as it was 34c in the house for most of it.

I ran out of tests and bought more but it was a 3 day delivery window with caveat that it could be 3 days on top of that too. Gotta say since they stopped being free and government distrobuted, getting latteral flow tests to people who need them has gone to crap. 6 days? I'll potentially have recovered and stopped being detectable by then!
 
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Bambooza

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Mine is that sciences in general should not become a political issue.
I fully agree with you on this. My concern is how is this achievable when the very fundy is political and the individuals performing the tests have biases of their own. I know that repeatability, and peer review is meant to combat this but how many studies do you know that have had any funding to challenge the findings (Perhaps all grants need two parts one a small part set aside to be given to teams hostile to the first and a cash prize for those who disprove the results). For the moment the biggest issue is government funding generally requires results and a negative result is not good enough so tests are crafted in such a way that favors p-hacking and results by data instead of attempting to form a hypothesis and then building tests to disprove it. The other issue is with peer reviews in that studies not conforming to the established expert's opinion are often quietly squashed by being ignored. Not saying I have any answers as the principle, in general, is pretty sound and eventually, the right answer is acquired but the between times can have lots of consequences based upon the inaccurate findings. And it goes both ways. Take for instance the studies attempting to link child vaccinations with the rise in autism. The two loud camps are to dismiss the data in its entirety and laugh at the other camp or to believe the data is all the evidence needed and forsake the saying correlation does not imply causation.
 
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