Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Radegast74

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Well, just when you thought it couldn't get any weirder:

Washington (CNN)Hospital data on coronavirus patients will now be rerouted to the Trump administration instead of first being sent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Health and Human Services confirmed to CNN on Tuesday.
Why is this a big deal? Further down the article:
The Times said hospitals are to begin reporting the data to HHS on Wednesday, noting also that the "database that will receive new information is not open to the public, which could affect the work of scores of researchers, modelers and health officials who rely on C.D.C. data to make projections and crucial decisions."

CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said the change is "going to lead to more opaqueness" about coronavirus data.
"What logic does this have, other than to take away the data from the epidemiologists that are the best in the world at looking at this data, making sense of it, translating it for people, versus giving it to HHS," he asked on CNN's "New Day" Wednesday morning.
 

Bambooza

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I wish they would have worded it differently as the CDC is a division of HHS which has always been a part of the US presidential administration. So it's not like its being pulled into a different government-controlled group. But you are right @Radegast74 the data no matter if it's with the CDC directly or its parent group HHS should still be made public.


Yep, when the information was put on a temporary pause and then flat-out dumped with an excuse of "well, it wasn't very reliable anyway because X" pretty much everyone who was paying attention then asked "Then y u no make reliable by fixing X?" with no reply. It was one of the things the government made a tangible numbers target "We'll test 100k a day by the end of April" without pausing to wonder if there were going to be 100k requests for tests a day - the finish line was passed in a blazing fudge of the figures on the 30th of April. They learned their lesson for 200k by saying they were aiming for capacity but it seems to be something they are now frightened of sharing like it's kryptonite or something. As has been mentioned so many times on this thread, it always seems like the politicisation of the crisis takes precedence over making the bad bad go bye bye. The [CONCERN] is real.

Thanks for sharing your view of the information and your angle on if more people are tested you will find more cases and that there is likely to be bias if you cannot test 100% of the people as it may be no more than chance that you do or do not catch a COVID case. I definitely see your point on the long term trends and very much agree, even in the UK the test methods and metrics have changed too many times over the months to make that reliable, however for short term day-to-day I still don't think the upward trend is invalid for one simple reason:

Those being tested are not a random sample, they are generally symptomatic or are key-workers in places they are more likely to be exposed to the contagion (unless the US has started a rolling screening program of the whole population I have not heared about). To me this means no, the pool of tests is, for the majority of cases, not being taken from a random selection of individuals which includes a certain percent of infected cases, it is being taken from those sick with symptoms of COVID or from those being regularly checked because they are at higher risk of contracting it due to their front-line-services jobs where they are more likely to come in to contact with the infection via those sick or whom are asymptomatic spreaders.

With the above observation I suggest the looking-glass is pointed in a focused direction with these tests rather than it being a random sample where you may or may not pick up an case by chance, and that as such it is more of reflection of what is happening on the ground in the here-and-now than the "Test more find more" viewpoint suggests. By looking where it is likely to find Coronavirus if it is present, those sick with symptoms or those likely to contract it due to their proximity to people, it weighs the scale from pure blind luck in finding a case to something nearer to a reflection of current events.

I would like to thank you again for your patience in helping me to understand your angle, I have found this very enlightening and would not have been able to word the above rational response if it were not for your considered and calm explanations. I would love to hear your thoughts to my above point, I'm sure there is a hole in it somewhere 🙂👍

The issue with a nonrandom sampling is that it is impossible to know the margin of error within the study group. While it does show a trend of your ability to find infected pockets within a general population it does nothing to show the true infection R0.

This is why any study performed for scientific research attempts to the best of their ability to collected as big of a random sampling as is possible.

 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Wednesday 15th July:

- UK: Deaths pass 45k confirmed, 55k with COVID on the death certificate and 64k over average.

- US: Oklahoma governor is the first to publicly announce they have tested positive for COVID-19. Has previously called for no restrictions and no face masks. Reported as feeling a "bit achey".

- US: Walmart and Starbucks announce mandatory masks in all stores across America.

- Iran: Country loses 140 health workers as they perish to COVID, reducing the countries healthcare resource as cases surge.

- World: Pandemic effects vaccination rate for children across the globe leaving them susceptible to other conditions.

- UK: When questioned on the preparation for a second winter wave, Prime Minister indicates he has heared of the report indicating a possible worst case scenario of 120,000 deaths, but has not as yet got round to reading it.

- Ireland: Country delays reopening pubs as cases spike.

- Bulgaria: 35% of people who lost their jobs since march due to lockdown have been able to reclaim their old jobs already.

- US: Vaccine hopes as treatment moves in to final stage of human trials.
 
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Jolly_Green_Giant

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I've been telling everyone I know to save every little cent they can. The system is in a cascading failure and we have yet to see the true scale of it all.


Edit: Also, if you get a chance, type in something along the lines of "food bank" or "food bank lines" into twitter search. It's not like any of this has gotten better.


 

Jolly_Green_Giant

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According to some of the tweets I read, the numbers are still all faked and this is all just to make Trump look bad.

Faked? No. Omitting things to frame a narrative? Possible, and likely. From my perspective, Arizona, Texas and Florida were the only states with high numbers according to the news. They frequently failed to mention California, Washington and other states. The RNC will be held in Jacksonville, and just like the Tulsa rally, that will be the focus of the news cycle while the continued protests are almost seemingly immune from criticism. The rallies are a genuine concern of course, but don't think politics arent at play in all of this. Its all very deceptive strategery.

In my point of view, if everyone wear mask and stay and home, the virus will be solve by scientists.
Anyway, best wishes for every fellows.

Lets hope!




EDIT:


Here's something that might back up what I'm saying. Again, it may be fox but its local reporting, which I trust.

 
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August

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I agree with Jolly on this one. The biggest challenge with the response appears to be how quickly political manoeuvring gets involved.

it seems that in countries with the most effective response the politics are put aside and decisions are led by medical advice. I’m not sure how you pivot a country where the leadership and the media machines which back them frame everything as a political and not a health issue.
 

Bambooza

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I agree with Jolly on this one. The biggest challenge with the response appears to be how quickly political manoeuvring gets involved.

it seems that in countries with the most effective response the politics are put aside and decisions are led by medical advice. I’m not sure how you pivot a country where the leadership and the media machines which back them frame everything as a political and not a health issue.
The best way would have been to infect the lot and see how fast politics are pushed aside when media and politicians are now sick.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Thursday 16th July:

- World: 140 vaccines in development around the world with encouraging results in the US and UK in early trials. Work continues, and efforts to interfere in that work also apace with various counties accused of attempting to hack the research away from those doing it.

- Japan: Highest one day increase in cases since 3 months ago, with over 600 reported.

- US: Florida records its deadliest day to date, with 156 patents succumbing to the contageon.

- Spain: King of Spain leads tributes to victims in ceremony. Cases continue.

- US: Study on mild cases by University of Minnesota provides more evidence that hydroxychloroquine does nothing to COVID-19 as there was no difference in recovery time between those with the drug and those with a placebo.

- China: Xinjiang Provence Puzzle as small group of people contract COVID with no obvious cause.

- UK: Government to publish post-code (zip-code) Covid data so you can check how many cases there have been in your local area but not pinpoint or identify specifics.

- US: Customs detains imports of medical gloves from worlds biggest maker amidst concerns of labor violations.
 

Aramsolari

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Thursday 16th July:
- Japan: Highest one day increase in cases since 3 months ago, with over 600 reported.
I'm really curious about Japan. The Japanese never really implemented the same kind of strict lockdowns as seen in the other Asian countries. They've instead relied heavily on Japan's culture of obsessively wearing PPE and the country's touch adverse Otaku style awkwardness lol. That said, there's a rumor that the Japanese authorities haven't been reporting new cases and deaths accurately. Should be interesting to keep an eye on as they're technically one of the countries that's handling this pandemic better.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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...there's a rumor that the Japanese authorities haven't been reporting new cases and deaths accurately.
At this point in the show, you can say that for absolutely every country. 100 years since the last big one, only a few decades since the last big regional one, and the world still has no way of accurately logging and tracking information that with correct analysis could help make things better, faster.

Oh, well. We'll see if they do any better in the 2120 rerun.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Friday 17th July:

- US: Once again daily increase breaks records, as California and Texas deploy military medics to assist health services and 41 states now report cases are rising.

- UK: Senior figure in the leading political party accuses Prime Minister of attempting to shift blame for governmental policy failures on to health services, using it to perpetuate agenda of westling back direct control of the service.

- Japan/US: Minister of defense requests all incoming US troops be tested as case numbers of marines and other US military staff on Okinawa bases rise to 138.

- UK: Wool industry in freefall as fourteen thousand tonnes of wool goes unsold amid a crash in demand that has seen the price almost halve.

- India: Cases pass 1 million.

- EU: Covid funding summit begins.

- France: R number transmission rate rises sharply in Brittany suggesting the contagion may be taking hold once more.

- South Korea: Country approves trials of COVID treatment.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Saturday 18th July:

- UK: Health Minister calls for review of death data in UK as suggestions arise that people who may have tested positive months prior have been included in official statistics. Observers suggest that while having accurate official numbers would be beneficial, it would not explain the Above Average number of deaths which is the best indicator of the crisis numbers over the whole country regardless of if and when someone was tested, especially considering tests were not conducted on anyone outside of critical hospital cases until near or after the Peak in in early April.

- US: President refuses to mandate masks saying he wishes there to be a certain freedom.

- Spain: Barcelona back in lockdown as cases surge.

- Scotland: Daily case number reported at 21, the highest for a month.

- US: Reports indicate pandemic once clustered as hotspots in urban cities is now raging through rural areas too.

- United Nations: Head says the pandemic was "revealing fractures in the fragile skeleton of the societies we have built" going on to call for a new social contract, saying "We will not be safe in relation to the pandemic if everybody is not safe"

- US: Hundreds of Arizona teachers protest school reopenings as they fear infecting their classes, and their classes infecting them, while California indicates most schools will not reopen in time for the new term.

- World: Cases reach 14 million. 13 million cases was reached roughly five days ago on the 13th.

- India: Cases pass 1 million.

- EU: Summit to agree Bloc COVID funding working toward a compromise while talks continue.
 
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Montoya

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Bambooza

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Even though we had doctors telling us about how real COVID-19 is for the past seven months, we can't truly be sure if it exists.

Lets see what this mother of twins has to say!

blah fake news. Them Chinese just want to tank the US economy. It's not like they don't have trillions of dollars tied up in it.

Honestly, what do we expect we have people who refuse to vaccinate their children. As for masks yes in some cases they are better at reducing the spread of the virus mostly from those who are infected from sneezing on you or something you bound to touch. But they raise the chance that you will infect yourself mostly because people are touching their mask far more often than would normally touch their face. Go figure.

I do have to say it has been interesting to look back on this virus and the emotional turmoil it has created.
 

LurchLord

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Even though we had doctors telling us about how real COVID-19 is for the past seven months, we can't truly be sure if it exists.

Lets see what this mother of twins has to say!

Capture.PNG
 
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Vavrik

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Honestly, what do we expect we have people who refuse to vaccinate their children. As for masks yes in some cases they are better at reducing the spread of the virus mostly from those who are infected from sneezing on you or something you bound to touch. But they raise the chance that you will infect yourself mostly because people are touching their mask far more often than would normally touch their face. Go figure.
You only need to touch your face once with enough of the virus on your hands to get sick, so I suggest anyone concerned about that washes their hands more often with soap and water regardless if they wear a mask or not. And if soap and water aren't handy, a good second choice is 70% isopropyl alcohol. It's not as good as soap and water, but it'll do in a pinch.
 

Bambooza

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You only need to touch your face once with enough of the virus on your hands to get sick, so I suggest anyone concerned about that washes their hands more often with soap and water regardless if they wear a mask or not. And if soap and water aren't handy, a good second choice is 70% isopropyl alcohol. It's not as good as soap and water, but it'll do in a pinch.
Indeed I was simply stating that studies are coming back that masks are shown to increase the amount people touch their face. So you are right washing with soap and water or if not available hand sanitizer is a great way to mitigate self-transfer as one's hands while a very poor receiver of infections is a great means of transferring to a more vulnerable body part.

Still, if you want to truly reduce your own risk of infection I'd ditch the cloth/surgical masks and go for a full-face respirator. As it's all about protecting one's mucus membranes from the virus. In all seriousness, I honestly am surprised I have not seen people going to this extreme yet.

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