Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Vavrik

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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7497757/#j_jvetres-2020-0050_ref_067 (last line of "Bat Coronavirus" section)
See also this. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0771-4

There is another paper I had but can't find at the moment, it makes the same claims that the human strains of coronavirus do not appear to be descended from the same strains that infected animal such as bats or pangolins at the time of the discovery of the virus in humans. That there was an earlier strain in common.
 

Aramsolari

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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7497757/#j_jvetres-2020-0050_ref_067 (last line of "Bat Coronavirus" section)
See also this. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0771-4

There is another paper I had but can't find at the moment, it makes the same claims that the human strains of coronavirus do not appear to be descended from the same strains that infected animal such as bats or pangolins at the time of the discovery of the virus in humans. That there was an earlier strain in common.
Could have been from anything...bats, pangolins, civets, whatever. My money is on deforestation and buildup of human habitation in previously wild areas. I've lived in areas that have bats and their feces get everywhere. With humans encroaching on wildlife habitats...I'm actually surprised there aren't more cases of zoonoses. Bats are after all the second most common mammal on this planet after their cousins.....rodents.

I don't rule out the laboratory accident theory. That said, I do believe it's origins are natural and not man-made/genetically modified.
 

Bambooza

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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7497757/#j_jvetres-2020-0050_ref_067 (last line of "Bat Coronavirus" section)
See also this. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0771-4

There is another paper I had but can't find at the moment, it makes the same claims that the human strains of coronavirus do not appear to be descended from the same strains that infected animal such as bats or pangolins at the time of the discovery of the virus in humans. That there was an earlier strain in common.
Thank you. At times its hard finding useful documents like this amongst all the fluff and opinion pieces.
 
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Bambooza

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Could have been from anything...bats, pangolins, civets, whatever. My money is on deforestation and buildup of human habitation in previously wild areas. I've lived in areas that have bats and their feces get everywhere. With humans encroaching on wildlife habitats...I'm actually surprised there aren't more cases of zoonoses. Bats are after all the second most common mammal on this planet after their cousins.....rodents.

I don't rule out the laboratory accident theory. That said, I do believe it's origins are natural and not man-made/genetically modified.
I am baffled by us blaming encroaching on wildlife habitats when all of human existence has been interweaved with wildlife. Especially when the same suggest we should live more like the native Americans while at the same time blaming those who do not live in concrete jungles for any introduction of novel virus. This is not to say that some of our practices with in the environment are hostile but that's a subject far removed from this threads goal.
 

Vavrik

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Thank you. At times its hard finding useful documents like this amongst all the fluff and opinion pieces.
You're welcome! I just wish I could find the one I was originally looking for.
Don't take a paper's word for it, even peer reviewed and published as gospel though. Often a later discovery will put things "we know" under scrutiny.

I don't rule out the laboratory accident theory. That said, I do believe it's origins are natural and not man-made/genetically modified.
I don't disagree with this. I don't rule out anything really, and a laboratory accident may have been the cause, but that would mean the virus was in the wild too.

Here's something weird. You know they give tours of bat caves? I mean not just in China, but all over the world. And one of the largest, if not the largest, bat cave they gave tours of is in Texas. (Tours are currently suspended). Questions in my mind: were we as a species just setting ourselves up for this? Where else are we just setting ourselves up?
 
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SoloFlyer

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Here's something weird. You know they give tours of bat caves? I mean not just in China, but all over the world. And one of the largest, if not the largest, bat cave they gave tours of is in Texas. (Tours are currently suspended). Questions in my mind: were we as a species just setting ourselves up for this? Where else are we just setting ourselves up?
Confirmed! This is the bat cave where the virus came from:


Seriously, walking through and inhaling guano from a species capable of transmitting diseases to us is not a great idea. I also don't see great things happening from stacking cages of different species of animal on top of each other in food markets so their waste can trickle down to the lowest sucker like the last guy in a human centipede.
 

Bambooza

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You're welcome! I just wish I could find the one I was originally looking for.
Don't take a paper's word for it, even peer reviewed and published as gospel though. Often a later discovery will put things "we know" under scrutiny.
Just like any scientific discovery. It is the current known truth until its not. But I do give more weight to published papers especially if given any sort of peer review.


I don't disagree with this. I don't rule out anything really, and a laboratory accident may have been the cause, but that would mean the virus was in the wild too.

Here's something weird. You know they give tours of bat caves? I mean not just in China, but all over the world. And one of the largest, if not the largest, bat cave they gave tours of is in Texas. (Tours are currently suspended). Questions in my mind: were we as a species just setting ourselves up for this? Where else are we just setting ourselves up?
It is only a matter of time until we purposely or accidental release something nasty.

But lets not go bat hunting or be fearful of the flying mammal, while I would not recommend going into bat caves due to the high risk of histoplasmosis, rabies, and Marburg hemorrhagic fever bats themselves are so important to the ecosystem.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Thursday 29th of April:

- World: 149,860,436 confirmed cases and 3,155,217 confirmed deaths.

- India: World record high new daily cases at 379,257, record high new daily deaths at 3,645.

- US: Citizens advised to leave India as soon as possible as crisis continues.

- US: Economic recovery accelerates up 6.4% in the last quarter.

- Fast Food: Following global lockdowns McDonalds restaurants see sales rebound strongly to pre-pandemic levels.

- Thailand: Makes face masks in public mandatory.

- Syria: Surge results in COVID Test and Oxygen shortages.

- Uganda: Detects first case of Indian variant.

- Romania: Detects first case of Indian variant.

- EU: Approves Bloc wide COVID travel pass.
 

Aramsolari

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I am baffled by us blaming encroaching on wildlife habitats when all of human existence has been interweaved with wildlife. Especially when the same suggest we should live more like the native Americans while at the same time blaming those who do not live in concrete jungles for any introduction of novel virus. This is not to say that some of our practices with in the environment are hostile but that's a subject far removed from this threads goal.
Is it that baffling though? Yes human activity has interweaved with wildlife since the beginning of time but never before at this scale.

I partly grew up in Southeast Asia in tropical rural areas that are now urban. Human populations have gone up, natural habitats have gone down, and biodiversity has plummeted. All these factors are in my opinion critical to the emergence of new diseases or variants of existing ones.

David Attenborough-esque monologues aside, this is what I’ve seen:

In my 39 years on this planet I’ve seen the tropical rain forests of my youth get replaced by palm plantations or urban development. Like literally...the wild durian forest in my uncle’s backyard is now an ugly suburban development. Meanwhile all sorts of tropical diseases like dengue and malaria are more common than I remember. To top it off the live wet markets I remember going to with my mom as a kid seem to be getting larger with more variety available than before.

All anecdotal of course but I’m sure I can find articles, opinion pieces, and peer reviewed publications on these issues and how there may be links to the emergence of novel diseases.

Now I’m not suggesting we kick aside development or tell people living in developing countries to dial it back when we in the West have enjoyed our high standard of living for so long. In fact it really annoys me when random privileged Western millennial lectures the rest of the world while they enjoy their iPhones, Quinoa salads, etc completely oblivious as to the impact of their consumption habits.

Also what IS this thread’s goal anyway? Hundreds of pages long who even knows anymore? Lol Besides Bob’s daily updates, I thought this is a forum for casual discussion and updates? I mean if I want to jump headlong into a serious discussion on COVID backed up by peer reviewed articles in an academic setting....yeah a gaming forum wouldn’t be my first choice lol.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Gonna be interesting. Many countries have banned flights from India (Canada has). Gonna see many people try alternate transit points (ie. Hong Kong).
Yeah i've been seeing the reports each day one by one more and more countries are blocking India travel. The UK (where i'm located in Meatspace) had India variant cases tracked back to February but still left it one whole week between announcing the travel ban and enacting it.

Why do today what you can do in seven days time, eh?

The general gist of what I've picked up from reports about India is the first wave was relatively low level so it put them in a sense of false security. With the vaccines beginning to roll out that false sense of security was then reinforced and then festivals and political rallies for upcoming elections were also allowed with low/no restrictions in part due to and in part again reinforcing that false sense of security... then whammo there is a double mutant and its too late they are now in a reactive position rather than a proactive one. Reacting, unfortunately, takes time. Time, is something they do not have, it has already happened.

One by one we are seeing the old initial assumptions which allowed complacency fall by the wayside:

"It doesn't hurt kids too bad so leave the schools open and let them carry on as normal."
P1 emerges, which has claimed the lives of 1,300+ babies in Brazil, reports indicating it has killed thousands of children under the age of 9.

"3% death rate, It's not that deadly so what does it matter it's like 'Flu isn't it?"
B.1.1.7 in the UK emerges which was 70% more deadly than the original COVID-19 (data suggests that makes it a global death rate of 5% rather than the original 3% if it became the dominant version).

"Younger people don't have to worry, the death rate for them is less then 1% let them catch it and get natural immunity."
B.1.617 emerges, a double mutant ripping through india with reports of it being able to cause serious illness in people in their 20's and 30's leading them to need intubation in a health system so overloaded there is hardly enough oxygen available to run through a ventilator, let alone enough ventilators for all who need them...

I don't believe it was just the local attitude which lead India to this position (although it may have been the major contributor), there were global factors too which the world will have some powerful lessons to learn from in how this came to pass, beyond just the attitudes of the locals, and how situations such as this can be better approached in future to ensure better coordinated global responses... but no matter what the positive benefits may come from it is, it's a tragedy it has happened in the first place.

As long as we, as in the population of the world, continue to approach this as what it is - a global pandemic where even if one country gets an upper hand and manages their local crisis well, it is still at risk from those other countries around and connected to it by air travel and migratory animal transmitters etc - I hold hope we will not get to a point where we see one of these variants, or another one which has not yet evolved, become the dominant strain which then causes further issues for those places which have been able to manage their internal epidemics either all the way through this.

Time for a song:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M
 
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Aramsolari

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Yeah i've been seeing the reports each day one by one more and more countries are blocking India.
I mean it makes sense when this happens. Zero tested positive before boarding the flight and then 53 positive cases shortly after landing in Hong Kong? Somethings definitely fishy. The Indian tests are either woefully inaccurate, non existent or flat out fraudulent. A quick Google search nets you stories about COVID certificates for sale.

I get it....people are scared and would do anything to get their families out. I would too.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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I mean it makes sense when this happens. Zero tested positive before boarding the flight and then 53 positive cases shortly after landing in Hong Kong? Somethings definitely fishy. The Indian tests are either woefully inaccurate, non existent or flat out fraudulent. A quick Google search nets you stories about COVID certificates for sale.

I get it....people are scared and would do anything to get their families out. I would too.
Blimey... unless their intention was to get somewhere with a healthcare system that had not been overwhelmed, there is nowhere to run to...
 
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Aramsolari

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Blimey... unless their intention was to get somewhere with a healthcare system that had not been overwhelmed, there is nowhere to run to...
Well the Indian diaspora is huge and worldwide. There's a sizable Indian population in Canada just like there is in the UK (Best curry I ever had was at a spot off Brick Lane in East London lol). I imagine those with citizenships or permanent residence rights are looking to or have already left India. I'll like to think Canada and the UK have healthcare systems that aren't overwhelmed (yet!).

The exact same thing happened when COVID19 first struck China. Those with foreign passports were quick to get out.

Unfortunately that's also how epidemics become pandemics.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Friday 30th of April:

- World: 150,751,023 confirmed cases and 3,170,271 confirmed deaths.

- World: Passes 150 million confirmed cases.

- India: World Record high new daily cases at 386,452.

- India: Funeral Pyres burn around the clock and more sites are being sought to perform them as Morgues and Cremation services overwhelmed.

- Turkey: Sees record high new daily deaths.

- Brazil: Death toll hits 400,000.

- UK: A cut in overseas aid budgets from 0.7% of GDP to 0.5% of GDP cuts £4 billion in funding, hitting COVID research including projects tracking the sequencing of the virus in places like India, seeing their budget slashed by 70%. "A 70% cut for a huge international consortium with a budget of £20m and over 80 employees – this is devastating."

- Russia: Data suggests the country saw 400,000 excess deaths between April 2020 and March 2021.

- UK: Data indicates 22 million people living in areas which saw zero COVID deaths through the month of April.

- Spain: Extends gap between doses of Oxford/AZ vaccine from 12 weeks to 16.

- Kenya: Doctor who said vaccines were "totally unnecessary" dies from COVID-19.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Saturday 1st of May:

- World: 151,629,943 confirmed cases and 3,184,472 confirmed deaths.

- India: World record high new daily cases at over 400,000 in 24 hours.

- India: Vaccine program hit by chronic shortage of doses.

- India: Scientist says Government ignored warnings on double mutant variant.

- India: A fire in a COVID ward kills 18.

- EU: Approves Moderna vaccine for emergency use.

- Australia: Announces travel ban to stop any Australian in India from returning to Oz. Many legal challenges have arisen to try to quash this before it begins on Monday. The government says it is drastic, but needed.

- US: California, and Disneyland reopens with restrictions following 13 month closure.

- UK: Two day legal rave with 3000 attendees carried out in Liverpool with no masks, distancing or other restrictions, only a negative COVID test before attending. Scientists in attendance take data and monitor, with further monitoring post-event to see if public events such as these can restart safely.

- UK: Mass testing expanded in East London as South African and Brazilian variants detected.

- Finland: Sees large protest on COVID restrictions.

- Sweden: Sees large protest on COVID restrictions.

- Belgium: Sees large protest on COVID restrictions, water canon and tear gas used to disperse attendees.

- Isle Of Man: Boarder reopens but under restrictions for specific travel such as visiting family.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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This isn't looking good. I wonder how many end up needing hospitalization compared to the rest of the world.
There is an additional issue in that there are reports the number of available tests is running low as well. If this is the number of positive tests there is the possibility that was the number of tests they had available to send out to people that day in the first place...?
 

Aramsolari

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This isn't looking good. I wonder how many end up needing hospitalization compared to the rest of the world.
I've been following India's response to their second wave of COVID closely. It's not....good. You have to remember that India is still a relatively poor country. Those who can afford hospitalization and treatment are the luckier, wealthy ones and even that isn't enough. People who can afford private hospitals are being turned away or told they're gonna be transferred somewhere else. I've read in many sources that the true case and death numbers are far higher than reported. NPR claims the numbers are perhaps around 5 million cases a DAY and probably 10000+ deaths by May. The Economist even went so far as to say that the positive case numbers is up to 30 times what is reported.

Geez. You're approaching freaking Black Death numbers here.
 
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