Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Vavrik

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In some ways, it can be looked at as a mild factor in evolution pressure. But there are other ways to achieve a degree of immunity within a population without killing off the weak susceptible which was a factor in smallpox and milkmaids. While cowpox offered immunity to dairy farmers it is estimated to have significantly contributed to the decline of the Native American population (some estimates a 95% population decrease following the introduction from European explorers). So isolating populations into cells come with its own risks combined with the reality that a significant portion of the more deadly viruses is zoonotic (jumping from non-human animal to humans). There have been a number of studies performed following the seasonal migration of birds and the spread of the seasonal flu along the eastern seaboard of the USA. Another study tracked the spread of the West Nile virus and it's being spread by Arctic Terns which are included in another study of Influenza A of spreading viruses inter-hemispheric (There is an ongoing risk assessment of Arctic terns becoming carriers of Covid19). While human to human transmission of viruses is far more prevalent nature is very good at spreading viruses around even without air travel.
Just want to point out that surveillance is not the same as "we found infected birds". SARS-COVID-2 is a Beta corona virus, and so far we have only seen Gama and Delta corona virus's in birds of any type. The Arctic Terns are more closely watched because they migrate from more temperate climates where people do live, into areas of very low human density but with otherwise isolated wildlife. Something to read:
 
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Vavrik

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Radegast74

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I followed the links till I got an image of the NY City notice to employees.
Don't get vaccinated, no work, no pay until you do. Gett vaccinated, you get a $500 bonus.

Hm. I've been to NYC, I used to live in Bridgewater NJ (about 12 miles from NYC as the crow flies, 20 by car) That would get you a meal for 2 at a nice restaurant, or help pay for a week's rent.
There's a great mall at Bridgewater! Or at least, there used to be, lol
 
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Vavrik

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There's a great mall at Bridgewater! Or at least, there used to be, lol
I haven't been back there since 2008, the map looks like the area is more built up, but some buildings like where I worked is totally gone now. There is a mall nearby, where Hwy 22 crosses 202. I lived about 3/4 of a mile due south from there. The mall itself looks about double the size it was.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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Hmmmm. Surely this is a prime example of a grounds for a vote of no confidence in a government?

Like watching a parent stood next to their kids playing with a box of matches.
Observer: "Erm... Don't you want to... Intervene at all?"
Parent: "Shut up I know my kids."
Ob: "There's smoke..."
P: "Me and my kids are tight, yo."
Ob: "There's fire."
P: "I trust my kids get lost."
Ob: "There's no more kids."

Unless the UK government has developed a 100% sure fire cure for COVID-19 and just hasn't told anyone keeping it for itself, nothing explains this wreckless abandonment. It's a rerun of Wave One where Nero fiddled as Rome burned...
 
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Radegast74

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More news --> the Wuhan Marathon has been postponed. Yet another marathon I'll never run...
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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More news --> the Wuhan Marathon has been postponed. Yet another marathon I'll never run...
Its a shame - every single marathon I've ever found out about I've not run, and now I can't... I didn't mind when it was an option and my choice never to run a marathon, but now, it feels like I've missed out on something.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Corner - Some reports from some news outlets from today, Friday 22nd of October:

- World: Global Confirmed 242,698,743 Global Deaths 4,933,356

- UK: Home working best way to curb Covid - scientists

- UK: Delta 'Plus' variant may spread more readily

- UK: Brits increasingly lax on masks and social mixing

- Vaccines: Pfizer says child-size doses effective at stopping infections in five- to 11-year-olds

- Russia: Russia reports 1,064 more deaths linked to virus

- US: CDC endorses boosters for Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines

- Norway: Norway opts not to give 12-15 year-olds second vaccine doses yet

- Italy: Italy’s green pass rule triggers rise in Covid jab uptake

- UK: Covid testing lab problems that lead to an estimated 43,000 false negatives started six days earlier than previously thought



 
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Vavrik

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There is a possible geographic and social (not geo-political) explanation of what's going on here. The UK is in a similar situation to the high population area in the Canadian Province of British Columbia, the area bounded roughly by Victoria, Nanaimo and the Greater Vancouver area. Seasonal changes in climate occur at roughly the same time, and the intensity of the seasonal climates are about the same - and the same type. Also population density in that area is fairly comparable with the UK. Outside of the area, the population density in B.C. plummets and you get into an area of very high mountain range, so the comparison kind of falls apart eventually - but vaccination rates are also very similar.

If I make a comparison between the COVID-19 infection charts for both BC and the UK, they are not exactly the same, but very similar. This looks climate and social (i.e. lifestyle) driven, not vaccine driven. Keep in mind that vaccination now has almost no effect on the infections, but does in the hospitalizations and deaths - which I don't have data on for B.C. I would have included the US States of Washington and Oregon which are not in a different geographical zone, but the climate changes rather rapidly as you get closer to California. Their charts (Washington and Oregon) also look similar, but the spikes are quite a bit higher than either B.C. or the UK.

... just sort of related...
To me, the most interesting thing I found is that the areas directly east of the mainland mountain ranges is also the demarcation line of the high infection rates in North America - but Europe itself does not really have a comparable zone. For that you really need to go east of the Ural mountains - which is in Asia and the Indian sub-continent. I have almost no trust in the data being reported from most of that region except India. What I can say is that Eastern Europe seems to be a lot like the extreme eastern part of the Prairie provinces and Great Planes areas - so kind of flipped back to front so to speak. But it's the extreme western part of both Europe and North America and the similarity of the charts that drew my attention.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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There is a possible geographic and social (not geo-political) explanation of what's going on here. The UK is in a similar situation to the high population area in the Canadian Province of British Columbia, the area bounded roughly by Victoria, Nanaimo and the Greater Vancouver area. Seasonal changes in climate occur at roughly the same time, and the intensity of the seasonal climates are about the same - and the same type. Also population density in that area is fairly comparable with the UK. Outside of the area, the population density in B.C. plummets and you get into an area of very high mountain range, so the comparison kind of falls apart eventually - but vaccination rates are also very similar.

If I make a comparison between the COVID-19 infection charts for both BC and the UK, they are not exactly the same, but very similar. This looks climate and social (i.e. lifestyle) driven, not vaccine driven. Keep in mind that vaccination now has almost no effect on the infections, but does in the hospitalizations and deaths - which I don't have data on for B.C. I would have included the US States of Washington and Oregon which are not in a different geographical zone, but the climate changes rather rapidly as you get closer to California. Their charts (Washington and Oregon) also look similar, but the spikes are quite a bit higher than either B.C. or the UK.

... just sort of related...
To me, the most interesting thing I found is that the areas directly east of the mainland mountain ranges is also the demarcation line of the high infection rates in North America - but Europe itself does not really have a comparable zone. For that you really need to go east of the Ural mountains - which is in Asia and the Indian sub-continent. I have almost no trust in the data being reported from most of that region except India. What I can say is that Eastern Europe seems to be a lot like the extreme eastern part of the Prairie provinces and Great Planes areas - so kind of flipped back to front so to speak. But it's the extreme western part of both Europe and North America and the similarity of the charts that drew my attention.
Last year in this thread we watched the climb in cases litterally crawl down the UK in the Autumn. I'm guessing there is an ambient temperature at which most people like being outdoors on one side and most people like being indoors on the other side. Only a guess though.

I remember comparing it to being able to track the arrival of Spring in the UK by seeing the flowers bloom and insects come out of hibernation - it travels at about 4mph.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Every time they say "experts", I wonder if they're the same experts that didn't know what they didn't know at the start of the pandemic.
(Real experts can generally tell what they know and don't know.)
I am left wondering how 'there is no evidence to suggest' became an expert opinion.

If there is one phrase in this whole mess that can be attributed to the deaths of tens of thousands, it's that one.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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UK: Government rolls the dice and delays reintroducing precautions like social distancing and masks based on computer modeling that cases may drop in November without intervention:


This will be interesting to watch if it works out.
 
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