Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

[Aramsolari]

Thank you for clarifying. I think I've become a little overly sensitive because of my position here, I haven't been able to travel home since 2013 until this year because of illness progression. Then when I'm finally allowed to travel, this happens - during my first trip. It's been just a little surreal.

Sorry to hear about that bud!

Yeah I was supposed to make a one month trip out to Southeast Asia (Malaysia, Bali, etc) in April to see family and hit up some diving/surfing spots. Had to shelf all that. Been looking forward to it since August last year. Sucks.

 

[Aramsolari]

Restrictions have loosened slightly here in Victoria. We’ve had 10 cases identified in the last 24 hours.

The changes to our restrictions are as follows.

• 5 visitors (non-residents) allowed at home, up from one.
• Outdoor activities limited to 10 people - includes household members.
• Work from home if possible. Considering kids aren’t back at school this is essentially irrelevant.
• Bootcamps up to 10 people are allowed (plus instructor). Groups of up to 10 people are allowed outdoors. 1.5 meter spacing still applies.
• Golf is allowed again.
• No indoor sport unless it’s in your home. No gym
• Hiking, fishing, boating allowed. No camping, and the 10 person limit applies to groups.
• Funerals can now have up to 20 mourners indoors. Up to 30 mourners outdoors. Contact tracing records must be kept.
• We can exercise in the park but kids can’t use playgrounds or skate parks

Yeah we have similar measures that should kick in mid May. The numbers are kinda arbitrary though. For example gatherings of up to 6 are allowed. Why not 5? or 7? Hmm.

 

[August]

Yeah we have similar measures that should kick in mid May. The numbers are kinda arbitrary though. For example gatherings of up to 6 are allowed. Why not 5? or 7? Hmm.

I think people just need to feel like there’s some easing. It’s been a long 2 months.

We’re a long way off from cafés and hotels being opened for business as usual though.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Doctors offices are hit very hard by this too. People are having a hard time seeing a doctor because of covid.

Nearly half physician's practices have had to lay off, furlough workers, MGMA survey finds

As patient volumes plummet amid the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly half of independent medical practices report they have had to furlough or lay off staff, according to a new survey from the Medical Gro | The survey found practices have seen an average 60% drop in patient volume on average and a 55%...

www.fiercehealthcare.com

“Patients are foregoing necessary preventive and even acute care out of fear of exposure. Medical practices are struggling to keep their doors open as volume collapses. The nation faces a second wave access crisis when the pent up demand for non-COVID-19 care is released and the rest of our healthcare system is offline as a result of the pandemic.”

Thanks for the link, great find! That's definitely an unforeseen consequence, I never would have guessed a health service's capacity could shrink during a time of national crisis.

The deaths at home rate has risen in the UK (link in an earlier post) but as far as I am aware I don't think think the capacity in the health system has shrunk at all here...? Don't know that for sure though. I do know alternate consultancy systems have been set up using video-calls, phone calls,. emails etc. With a universal healthcare system here I suppose it's a one-stop-shop whereas my assumption in privatized US there isn't a single place patience can simply send a message to and get a response for any issue...?

"...22% permanently laid off..."

That part is seriously worrying. The capacity in the health system has, potentially, been reduced by a fifth (if we assume all the layoffs are medical staff and not non-medical).

Considering medical services are a basic human need, I find that article concerning. I'm not going to jump on a soap box for welfare healthcare, however it really sounds like the cliff face is being undermined just when it needs to weather the storm...?

 

[Radegast74]

I never would have guessed a health service's capacity could shrink during a time of national crisis.

It's a "bug/feature" of a for-profit health care system....caring for seriously ill people is a money-losing endeavor, while providing elective surgeries are where the profits are...
It would be interesting to see how the stock prices of the health care insurance companies are doing.

While it may seem curious that so many American medical staff are taking pay cuts or have lost work during a pandemic, healthcare managers say the huge financial pressures mean they have had little choice.

"We have seen our revenues decline by 60%, just about overnight," says Claudio Fort, CEO of a hospital in Vermont that is losing around $8m (£6.4m) a month.

Coronavirus: Why so many US nurses are out of work

At a time when many healthcare workers are risking their lives, some face pay cuts and job loss.

www.bbc.com

As Hospitals Lose Revenue, More Than A Million Health Care Workers Lose Jobs

Faced with lost revenue from canceled elective procedures, hospitals laid off 1.4 million health care workers in April, including nearly 135,000 from hospitals.

www.npr.org

Thousands of US medical workers furloughed, laid off as routine patient visits drop during coronavirus pandemic

Coronavirus has led to overwhelming demand at some health care facilities. For others, it has brought business to a screeching halt.

www.usatoday.com

During a Pandemic, an Unanticipated Problem: Out-of-Work Health Workers (Published 2020)

Across the country, plunging revenues from canceled nonemergency medical appointments have forced hospitals to furlough or cut the pay of doctors, nurses and other staff.

www.nytimes.com

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

It's a "bug/feature" of a for-profit health care system....caring for seriously ill people is a money-losing endeavor, while providing elective surgeries are where the profits are...
It would be interesting to see how the stock prices of the health care insurance companies are doing.

Coronavirus: Why so many US nurses are out of work

At a time when many healthcare workers are risking their lives, some face pay cuts and job loss.

www.bbc.com

As Hospitals Lose Revenue, More Than A Million Health Care Workers Lose Jobs

Faced with lost revenue from canceled elective procedures, hospitals laid off 1.4 million health care workers in April, including nearly 135,000 from hospitals.

www.npr.org

Thousands of US medical workers furloughed, laid off as routine patient visits drop during coronavirus pandemic

Coronavirus has led to overwhelming demand at some health care facilities. For others, it has brought business to a screeching halt.

www.usatoday.com

During a Pandemic, an Unanticipated Problem: Out-of-Work Health Workers (Published 2020)

Across the country, plunging revenues from canceled nonemergency medical appointments have forced hospitals to furlough or cut the pay of doctors, nurses and other staff.

www.nytimes.com

Wow. I don't want to say anything inflammatory, but that just seems like a system that's not fit for purpose...?

 

[Radegast74]

Wow. I don't want to say anything inflammatory, but that just seems like a system that's not fit for purpose...?

Well, it's Capitalism, baby! So, if the purpose is making money...

On a more serious note, there are plenty of studies out there showing the US spends more per capita on health care, without any better outcomes than other countries spending less.

 

[Bambooza]

Wow. I don't want to say anything inflammatory, but that just seems like a system that's not fit for purpose...?

On a more serious note, there are plenty of studies out there showing the US spends more per capita on health care, without any better outcomes than other countries spending less.

It really is an interesting system. Most of it is due to how the system was dramatically expanded as a direct result of wage controls imposed by the federal government during world war 2 to combat wartime inflation. While companies could not increase wages to attract new workers they could leverage fringe benefits like health care and sick leave. (staples we now expect of any employment).

As for Doctors, Nurses, and medical staff outside of the current focus, it would be expected to see them having reduced hours/furlough with the rest of us. A company cannot continue to survive while paying employees and not having a source of income. Especially since employee salaries and benefits take upwards of 80 percent of gross revenue.

I have to say this is an interesting time and a mess was created by the stay home orders that continue to be enforced.

Well, it's Capitalism, baby! So, if the purpose is making money...

So you are saying you do not work for money?

 

[August]

So you are saying you do not work for money?

I interpreted this as suggesting that perhaps there are certain vital public service which shouldn’t operate under a for-profit business model.

 

[August]

There have been 8 newly confirmed cases since 3:00pm yesterday, averaging 18 new cases a day over the last week.

Much of this increase has been related to a single abattoir in Victoria with 75 recorded cases.

 

[Bambooza]

I interpreted this as suggesting that perhaps there are certain vital public service which shouldn’t operate under a for-profit business model.

This I am aware of. But I also find the whole idea to be ludicrous. Very few nonprofit are truly nonprofit in their goals even if the corporation itself does not retain profits its driving members are often looking to maximizes their wages

 

[Bambooza]

There have been 8 newly confirmed cases since 3:00pm yesterday, averaging 18 new cases a day over the last week.

Much of this increase has been related to a single abattoir in Victoria with 75 recorded cases.

For the whole country? And how widescale is the testing? Is it still limited to those in intensive care or have they started to ramp up testing of the general public?

 

[August]

For the whole country? And how widescale is the testing? Is it still limited to those in intensive care or have they started to ramp up testing of the general public?

For the whole country. The link to the Image in my earlier post is update with a higher resolution link.

Here in Victoria testing centers are now open everywhere, and here everyone is encouraged to get tested if they are concerned or have any symptoms.

 

[Radegast74]

It really is an interesting system. Most of it is due to how the system

It really isn't a system, though, unless you would consider Wal-Mart, Target, Amazon, etc. to be a "retail/shopping system."

Hospitals are just a business, with a business model...what we have now is just something we've backed into through either direct action or inaction based on circumstances.

What you were referring to in your post is really "health insurance" which is different from hospitals.

Btw, just came across this interesting article:

COVID Bailout Cash Goes To Big Players That Have Paid Millions To Settle Allegations Of Wrongdoing - KFF Health News

At least half of the top 10 recipients, part of a group that received $20 billion in emergency HHS funding, have paid criminal penalties or settled charges related to improper billing and other practices.

khn.org

Malcolm Sparrow, a professor at the Harvard John F. Kennedy School of Government, said the HHS methodology for its general distribution of relief funds is “a little bit worrying.”

“If you peg the amount based on historical volume and you’ve got good reason to believe that historical volume is inflated due to fraud and abuse, the irony is that they get more money because they’re more dishonest,” Sparrow said. “But you can’t prove that in a short period of time.”

 

[Radegast74]

For the whole country. The link to the Image in my earlier post is update with a higher resolution link.

Here in Victoria testing centers are now open everywhere, and here everyone is encouraged to get tested if they are concerned or have any symptoms.

That is actually quite an accomplishment! This is the textbook way to stamp out something like this, isolate until you can get the numbers down and then implement contact tracing, to identify any potential carriers and really stamp out all remnants of the disease. Both Australia and New Zealand are leading the way.

I have a feeling we are going to be dicking around with this for the whole summer...god help us if there is a second wave in the Fall.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

UK numbers in for today Monday 11th May.

Total confirmed 223,060 with 3,877 new, total dead 32,065 with 210 new. Bear in mind friday was a bank holiday (additional weekend day) and Monday from previous datasets doesn't contain all the weekend data, so a bunch more info should be through tomorrow. Hoping for the best.

The hospital deaths were 229, however there is now an explanation as to why this is the case: "In rare instances, the daily count under the new measure may be lower than the old measure because some hospital deaths in the hospital-only data will include individuals who have already been included in the composite count."

So... erm... yeah. Sums.

Todays status is notable as being the second ever status outlook which has come to pass. On the 17th of April we were discussing if people in the UK should wear masks to lower the transmission rate. 25 days later we have been advised to wear them. 25 days where something which may have been of help was not implemented.

Coronavirus: Cover faces in some public areas, people in England told

Wearing face coverings on public transport and in some shops is advised in a new government document on easing the lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bambooza]

That is actually quite an accomplishment! This is the textbook way to stamp out something like this, isolate until you can get the numbers down and then implement contact tracing, to identify any potential carriers and really stamp out all remnants of the disease. Both Australia and New Zealand are leading the way.

I have a feeling we are going to be dicking around with this for the whole summer...god help us if there is a second wave in the Fall.

It's going to slow burn this summer and it will be back this fall. The question is what are we going to do about it?

Also for Australia and New Zealand, I agree they are doing great at stomping out the virus within their respective countries but the question I have is how are they going to keep it out? Are they just not going to allow any form of international travel? Or are they going to force a 14-day quarantine at the airport for all personal involved with international travel before they can interact with anyone in the general public? It would be far easier to just deny any form of international travel and all ports of trade not allowing any interaction with crew on boats nor allow them shore leave. But is it something they can do for the next two years?

 

[ColdDog]

For the whole country. The link to the Image in my earlier post is update with a higher resolution link.

August, I am pretty sure you know this, but I wanted to add it to the debate of a Covid-19 response - one size fits all mentality.

Communist countries seem to think society is a one size fits all - horizontal leadership structure.

Free countries like the US, the power structure is much more vertical. Most people, with the exception of the obvious, do not recognize that each state is different. New York is NOT Wyoming and Wyoming is NOT Texas, and so forth. In addition the US has a Federalist System that separates the State and Federal Government (which is an inconvenient fact for those Americans who wish to be under a one world government). We have determined that leaders rise vertically (local, county, state, and federal government). Each group is "duly-elected", by their constituents, which is why I can't vote for some Governor in New York. So, living in Denver, I can only vote for Denver city council, I can't vote for Boulder city council. Same goes for Colorado, I can only vote for State representatives of Colorado, NOT Wyoming. That is why local leaders are directly accountable to the consent of the governed. Sorry for writing so much, I think some Americans on this thread do not think reality should be this way and inject wishes into the debate - They have as much right as I do, which many people in China, Cuba and other despotic countries do not allow.

Why there isn’t a one-size-fits-all plan for states to reopen their economies

How and when the US economy reopens will look different state to state, and for good reasons. This Q&A explains why, and why some states are working together.

theconversation.com

Under our country’s federalist system, protection of public health and safety is reserved to the state, so it is up to each governor to choose a path forward.

On a different note, China is opening Disney today, while in America both Disney World and Land remain closed. I can not see how anyone could ever forget what the CCP has done to the world.

Shanghai Disney Resort Official Site

Welcome to Shanghai Disney Resort, a one-of-a-kind destination featuring Shanghai Disneyland, 2 Resort hotels, Disneytown, Wishing Star Park and much more!

www.shanghaidisneyresort.com

 

[August]

It's going to slow burn this summer and it will be back this fall. The question is what are we going to do about it?

Also for Australia and New Zealand, I agree they are doing great at stomping out the virus within their respective countries but the question I have is how are they going to keep it out? Are they just not going to allow any form of international travel? Or are they going to force a 14-day quarantine at the airport for all personal involved with international travel before they can interact with anyone in the general public? It would be far easier to just deny any form of international travel and all ports of trade not allowing any interaction with crew on boats nor allow them shore leave. But is it something they can do for the next two years?

I suspect it will look something like this.

What would a trans-Tasman ‘travel bubble’ look like?

Australia and New Zealand have kicked off “unprecedented” discussions at a National Cabinet meeting with the aim of creating a “bubble” that would allow international travel across the ditch.

www.news.com.au

Safe countries and unsafe countries. Different rules for each, and mandatory 14 day detention for travellers from unsafe countries.

I expect some form of contact tracing will be required until there’s a Vaccine regardless of where people originate.

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

Just a couple articles on the situation in China from SCMP. Looks like another city just went into lockdown "war time" status and wuhan is seeing an uptick in cases again. I would assume if the trend rises, they will lock down again.

Fears grow of new wave of cases as Covid-19 returns to Wuhan

City in northeast goes into ‘wartime mode’ after a spike in cases, while the capital of Hubei province records six cases in a residential community.

www.scmp.com

Coronavirus latest: WHO warns countries are ‘driving blind’ as they reopen

Chile braces for winter as cases pass 30,000; Ghana president says one person infected 533 at fish factory.

www.scmp.com

And for us PC enthusiasts:

Amid China tensions, Pentagon wants chip makers to build US factories

Trump administration has been in discussions with Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co over improving domestic sources for microelectronics.

www.scmp.com

EDIT:

I havent looked at this since things started kicking off. Very interesting to see a time lapse
of different strains and how they moved around the world.

auspice

nextstrain.org

EDIT2:

Great article from the American Medical association from a harvard prof regarding what we can expect going into fall.

Harvard epidemiologist: Beware COVID-19’s second wave this fall

Marc Lipsitch, DPhil, director of Harvard’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, warns of a difficult autumn in terms of COVID-19 caseloads and the toll exacted by mitigation tactics.

www.ama-assn.org