Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

[Bambooza]

I did not read the previous 49 pages so sorry if I am repeating stuff

Tin foil hat time. I just had a look at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) stats for England and Wales deaths, that was released on 07/04/20. In the 9 weeks before 27/3/20 at total of 98,899 people died of all causes. Any guesses how much higher that is than the average for the same period in the previous 5 years IE 2015-2019?

Obviously my maths may be wrong and a there are a lot of factors in play.

The answer is that 2996 fewer people died in that period in 2020 than in the average of the previous five years.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes the most up-to-date figures available for deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.ons.gov.uk

Open the first xisx it gives the comparison at the top

View attachment 15464

If you use the link open the first xisx it gives the comparison at the top

Honest and crackpot thoughts please?


In general conspiracy's do not work. I believe in incompetence and poor judgement. There is no doubt that people are dying of Covid 19. My main point is are the steps taken by the government proportional? I would stress that whilst I think the answer is no, I am still following the rules as I am wrong 49% of the time. Being wrong on this is a big risk to my family.

I see

Well, if you aren't going to read all the 49 previous pages, then I'm not going to fully read your post, either, :p

My stab at answering the question is either
a) they aren't updating that list or are too swamped by tracking the COVID-19 deaths to track other things,
OR
b) if people aren't outside driving, working, etc., then there has been a reduction in road deaths, workplace deaths, sporting/accidental deaths, etc.

Or some combo of the two. Or something else, also. If it is indeed b, then look for a rebound when people are let loose from isolation.

Both of your answers are valid and we will not know for sure until this time next year. As for @Rear_Intruder its to early to tell how the impact of the Corvid 19 virus has on the general yearly death totals. There is validation in the idea that a fair number of those who died to Corvid 19 would have died this year and it was just this was the straw that took them out. The other side of it is do nothing had a projected infection rate of 9.7% and of those infected, 3% would have died if left untreated, a real concern when dealing with a medical triage situation in more cases then can be dealt with. So with 9.7% of the world would mean 679 million would be infected of those 20.3 million would die which is significant compared to the world average deaths per year of 56 million. But how would it have impacted the total deaths for the year? We will need to wait a few years until all the numbers are tallied.

As for the world reaction and the significant tanking of countries economies that will have a lingering impact for years its too early to decide if this course of action was effective. Maybe just handing out face masks and better handwashing practices would have been a better option. Or maybe we overreacted and the true death rate was not as high as projected being only slightly higher than the seasonal flu. These are questions we should ask our selves this time next year so that next time we are better prepared for a course of action that is more effective.

 

[Rear_Intruder]

Rad I take your point and have read the other posts.
so to answer your Q's
a) These are the official stats for the UK. They are therefore likely to be more accurate than speculation or media reports.
b) In the same period we would expect 295 deaths from road accidents. 24 from work accidents and 1000 from accidents at home. As more folk are at home i would expect that last figure to rise.
(I worked those figures out on the hoof but they will not be so different as to alter the context)

It is currently a fact! less people have died in the UK in the last 9 weeks than on average over the last 5 years during the same period.

Do other countries have stats to share?

People die all the time-- 10-12,000 each week in the UK. Governments make positive informed decisions that impact on that. IE the NHS not paying for a drug that extends lives due to the expense, allowing and profiting from the tax on cigarettes, Choosing to limit the impact of global warming by 2050 rather than 2030 ETC.

i just want to question this process a little to hold our governments to scrutiny. I am not a covid denier or conspiracy nut telling you that 5G phones are killing folk.

edit Bam I was typing whilst you posted so missed it

 

[ColdDog]

I believe in incompetence and poor judgement.

Models change as real data comes in... problem is these models are used for everything INCLUDING global warming. Best case and worse case scenarios.

 

[Rear_Intruder]

Models change as real data comes in... problem is these models are used for everything INCLUDING global warming. Best case and worse case scenarios.

A good decision, correctly made, based on the information available at the time, does not become a bad decision at a later date when the date/info changes

 

[SoloFlyer]

I see

Well, if you aren't going to read all the 49 previous pages, then I'm not going to fully read your post, either, :p

My stab at answering the question is either
a) they aren't updating that list or are too swamped by tracking the COVID-19 deaths to track other things,
OR
b) if people aren't outside driving, working, etc., then there has been a reduction in road deaths, workplace deaths, sporting/accidental deaths, etc.

Or some combo of the two. Or something else, also. If it is indeed b, then look for a rebound when people are let loose from isolation.

I'm honestly surprised more people aren't being mauled to death by disgruntled house cats because their human pets are intruding in their living space 24/7 now

 

[August]

IMO the issues we're still dealing with are

A) We don't know a great deal about the virus
B) We have no clinical treatment options beyond supporting the victim
C) We have no vaccines for Corona viruses at all, let alone Corvid-19

I think any comment around overreacting is premature if the above statements are true. Viruses mutate and change and the health services of many regions are overwhelmed. Look at the death rate in New York. If things were as usual there wouldn't be the need for mass graves.

New York buries coronavirus dead in mass graves as fatalities continue rising

New York City's coronavirus death toll has exceeded that of the 9/11 attacks, with a dramatic increase over the past three days.

www.sbs.com.au

 

[Radegast74]

Wow, a bunch of great responses, all in a row!

Along with what @Bambooza said, we really won't know for a year or so. While I appreciate people and govt. organizations posting data like that in real time, my experience is that it takes weeks or months to go back and actually reconcile (i.e., make sure it all came in, was entered correctly, etc.) data such as this. The UK's NHS is a lot more centralized than the US (our data collection system for large scale public health stuff is much more piecemeal). In any event, wait for the dust to settle down and we can actually get a better handle on this.

IMO the issues we're still dealing with are

A) We don't know a great deal about the virus
B) We have no clinical treatment options beyond supporting the victim
C) We have no vaccines for Corona viruses at all, let alone Corvid-19

I think any comment around overreacting is premature if the above statements are true. Viruses mutate and change and the health services of many regions are overwhelmed. Look at the death rate in New York. If things were as usual there wouldn't be the need for mass graves.

New York buries coronavirus dead in mass graves as fatalities continue rising

New York City's coronavirus death toll has exceeded that of the 9/11 attacks, with a dramatic increase over the past three days.

www.sbs.com.au

I agree. The virus seems to be significantly more deadly for *vulnerable* groups, which typically are older adults, infants, and people with other comorbid medical problems. These are typically the people that society is supposed to protect. A lot of the measure we are taking will protect yourself, but more importantly, will protect the more vulnerable members of society.

 

[Rear_Intruder]

IMO the issues we're still dealing with are

A) We don't know a great deal about the virus
B) We have no clinical treatment options beyond supporting the victim
C) We have no vaccines for Corona viruses at all, let alone Corvid-19

I think any comment around overreacting is premature if the above statements are true. Viruses mutate and change and the health services of many regions are overwhelmed. Look at the death rate in New York. If things were as usual there wouldn't be the need for mass graves.

New York buries coronavirus dead in mass graves as fatalities continue rising

New York City's coronavirus death toll has exceeded that of the 9/11 attacks, with a dramatic increase over the past three days.

www.sbs.com.au

August if we read that article and analyse it what does it actually say?

First the headline
New York buries coronavirus dead in mass graves as fatalities continue rising
If you read on they actually bury people in mass graves all time and have done so since the 19th Century , in fact they normally bury 25 people a week in mass graves.
That is now about 120 a week according to the source. Read the article and understand the criteria for who is buried in this way and why.
the source says
"They added two new trenches in case we need them"
That sounds like good planning given the scientific advice.

Read it all

This is a true but sensational headline.

However THE top planned for risk, in every Western country is not terrorism. It is pandemic flu and has been for many years. All major cities have or should have plans for mass graves and also a plan to ID and rebury those bodies at a later date. This is not what this story is about.

 

[ColdDog]

A good decision, correctly made, based on the information available at the time, does not become a bad decision at a later date when the date/info changes

That is in the eyes of the beholder... If I am on a project and I say I found the answer on the vendors website and can back it up with the documentation (manual) but your network fails because I chose to do x recommended by the vendor, is that ok (I know my environment, vendors recommendations are generalized)? Theoretically, I can pass the blame to the vendor... happens every day. Slimy people use this tactic everyday to deflect the blame from them.

 

[August]

 

[Bambooza]

IMO the issues we're still dealing with are

A) We don't know a great deal about the virus
B) We have no clinical treatment options beyond supporting the victim
C) We have no vaccines for Corona viruses at all, let alone Corvid-19

I think any comment around overreacting is premature if the above statements are true. Viruses mutate and change and the health services of many regions are overwhelmed. Look at the death rate in New York. If things were as usual there wouldn't be the need for mass graves.

New York buries coronavirus dead in mass graves as fatalities continue rising

New York City's coronavirus death toll has exceeded that of the 9/11 attacks, with a dramatic increase over the past three days.

www.sbs.com.au

Indeed we don't know a lot about this virus which is why its going to take a year or two before answers start to trickle in.


And this article title is rather misleading. This is a working mass grave that has been used for over a century a standard burial site for unclaimed and family who are unable to make arrangements for funerals. While they are taking in higher numbers than normal from 25 a week to about 120 the last week of March. They also go on to say that there is still plenty of room in the city's morgue and are prepared in case it fills up with refrigerated trucks.

Deaths in New York City Are More Than Double the Usual Total (Published 2020)

Deaths from all causes have surged, undermining arguments that coronavirus numbers have been overblown.

www.nytimes.com

Goes to show how this is effecting things and how impactful it has been on new york city. But you can also see that year totals for 2019 have not been made avaliable yet and so we will not truly know the numbers for this until sometime next year.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

I did not read the previous 49 pages so sorry if I am repeating stuff

Tin foil hat time. I just had a look at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) stats for England and Wales deaths, that was released on 07/04/20. In the 9 weeks before 27/3/20 at total of 98,899 people died of all causes. Any guesses how much higher that is than the average for the same period in the previous 5 years IE 2015-2019?

Obviously my maths may be wrong and a there are a lot of factors in play.

The answer is that 2996 fewer people died in that period in 2020 than in the average of the previous five years.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes the most up-to-date figures available for deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.ons.gov.uk

Open the first xisx it gives the comparison at the top

View attachment 15464

If you use the link open the first xisx it gives the comparison at the top

Honest and crackpot thoughts please?


In general conspiracy's do not work. I believe in incompetence and poor judgement. There is no doubt that people are dying of Covid 19. My main point is are the steps taken by the government proportional? I would stress that whilst I think the answer is no, I am still following the rules as I am wrong 49% of the time. Being wrong on this is a big risk to my family.

Interesting, do you have a breakdown for what type of deaths are reporting a lower set of fatalities? Things like social distancing and staying indoors may have an impact on other contagious conditions such as Flu, things like closing most businesses and Furlough has taken masses of traffic off the roads meaning the number of fatal RTA's may have declined, the pubs being closed should have declined over drinking with fatal results, no sports means no sporting injuries with the risk of death....? Just knowing the medical services could be overwealmed at any moment could also be making people more cautious and at a lower risk...?

I am mildly concerned about the long term personal effects of COVID-19 too... It may be you contract it, recover and then are immune... It could be you contract it, recover, and are more susceptible to other illnesses going forward. Considering it's alien nature (having come from the animal population) the long terms effects of this are totally and utterly unknown. All we can do is make assumptions it will be okay and watch for signs of those who have recovered growing a second head or succumbing to Rage or whatever.

EDIT - Just read the other posts after yours, that stuff too.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

UK numbers for 11th April.

Total confirmed: 78,991 up 5233, Total died: 9,875 up 917

I amended the chart with the additional added to each of their respective days, not helped by the fact the info for those Pillar 2's is now one day different meaning yesterdays high on the 7th was actually on the 8th. Didn't make any difference there is still a spike which as far as I am aware doesn't exist but today's numbers does sit relatively in line with the previous trend. I'd say my logging before yesterday is now totally arseholed so just ignore that bit, yeah?

Worth bearing in mind there is going to be a bunch of delayed numbers as it's Easter Bank Holiday Friday and Monday this weekend and having seen the discrepancies caused by Weekends it'll likely hit this one too but four days worth rather than two.

 

[Bambooza]

I am mildly concerned about the long term personal effects of COVID-19 too... It may be you contract it, recover and then are immune... It could be you contract it, recover, and are more susceptible to other illnesses going forward. Considering it's alien nature (having come from the animal population) the long terms effects of this are totally and utterly unknown. All we can do is make assumptions it will be okay and watch for signs of those who have recovered growing a second head or succumbing to Rage or whatever.

I would just like to add some clarification to this.

COVID-19 is simply a new strain of coronavirus that has been infecting humans for a long time.

Coronaviruses are named for the crown-like spikes on their surface. There are four main sub-groupings of coronaviruses, known as alpha, beta, gamma, and delta.

Coronaviruses cause colds with major symptoms, such as fever, and a sore throat from swollen adenoids, occurring primarily in the winter and early spring seasons.[40] Coronaviruses can cause pneumonia (either direct viral pneumonia or secondary bacterial pneumonia) and bronchitis (either direct viral bronchitis or secondary bacterial bronchitis)

Human coronaviruses were first identified in the mid-1960s. The seven coronaviruses that can infect people are:

Most common yearly infections

1. 229E (alpha coronavirus)
2. NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
3. OC43 (beta coronavirus)
4. HKU1 (beta coronavirus)

Less common

1. MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
2. SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
3. SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)

So you have more than likely been infected many times with strains of the Coronavirus over the years.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

I would just like to add some clarification to this.

COVID-19 is simply a new strain of coronavirus that has been infecting humans for a long time.

Coronaviruses are named for the crown-like spikes on their surface. There are four main sub-groupings of coronaviruses, known as alpha, beta, gamma, and delta.

Coronaviruses cause colds with major symptoms, such as fever, and a sore throat from swollen adenoids, occurring primarily in the winter and early spring seasons.[40] Coronaviruses can cause pneumonia (either direct viral pneumonia or secondary bacterial pneumonia) and bronchitis (either direct viral bronchitis or secondary bacterial bronchitis)

Human coronaviruses were first identified in the mid-1960s. The seven coronaviruses that can infect people are:

Most common yearly infections

1. 229E (alpha coronavirus)
2. NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
3. OC43 (beta coronavirus)
4. HKU1 (beta coronavirus)

Less common

1. MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
2. SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
3. SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)

So you have more than likely been infected many times with strains of the Coronavirus over the years.

Many thanks for the details, appreciated. This does help alleviate some concern, you never know what you don't know.

 

[August]

Good numbers.

As at 6:00am on 12 April 2020, there have been 6,289 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 51 new cases since 6:00am yesterday.

 

[Aramsolari]

Many thanks for the details, appreciated. This does help alleviate some concern, you never know what you don't know.

So in layman's terms, could you say that this is a completely new mutation of a virus that's been around for awhile?

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

So in layman's terms, could you say that this is a completely new mutation of a virus that's been around for awhile?

I believe so? Although coming from the animal kingdom it's more likely to be totally new? Unless it went human > animal > human again?

My assumption and resulting concern was that with a new mutation could come new issues.

 

[Montoya]

As at 6:00am on 12 April 2020, there have been 6,289 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia.

That is great news for Australia.

With the close proximity and high rate of travel between you and Asian countries, I would have expected way higher numbers.

 

[Vavrik]

So in layman's terms, could you say that this is a completely new mutation of a virus that's been around for awhile?

I believe so? Although coming from the animal kingdom it's more likely to be totally new? Unless it went human > animal > human again?

You are correct, the virus is a new mutation of a virus family that has been around for a while. It's related to the betacoronavirus strains that caused both the MERS and SARS outbreaks in humans previously.