Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

[Radegast74]

Great article on the IHME model, and how it might have started to be informative, but now perhaps not as good as other models.

This coronavirus model keeps being wrong. Why are we still listening to it?

A model that the White House has relied on has come under fire for its flawed projections.

www.vox.com

And here is a list of other models that are out there and being used, along with strengths/weaknesses of each:

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

As usual, the FiveThirtyEight blog has a great review

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

We’re tracking 10 infectious disease models to understand where the coronavirus death toll could be headed in the coming weeks

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

People keep talking about how the goal or purpose of the initial measures was to avoid hospitals getting overrun by the first spike. While true, that is not *entirely* correct...while one of the goals, there were other goals, such as to gather more info and data, such as what are the exposure rates? Which we still don't have...

If we have only exposed ~ 10% of the population, and we are relaxing social distancing measures (the seeming only active measure we have), then we could still have even worse spikes coming. The US hospital "system" is already highly stressed, I'm not sure how long it can go on a "lowered" stress level if there isn't some relief.

 

[ColdDog]

US weekly jobless claims total 3.169 million, bringing seven-week tally to 33.5 million

First-time claims for unemployment insurance were expected to increase 3.05 million last week, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Radegast74]

Was just texting with a co-worker. Her 24 year old son is sick, probably with COVID..."Fever, fatigue, tightness of chest with periods of shortness of breath." He got better after 2 weeks, went surfing and then relapsed...get this, he tried to get tested, but got turned away --> "too young, no pre-existing conditions and not sick enough."

Holy cow...he was a high school wrestler too, so he used to be in good shape. This shit is pretty serious, take care of yourselves!

 

[Montoya]

He got better after 2 weeks, went surfing and then relapsed...get this, he tried to get tested, but got turned away --> "too young, no pre-existing conditions and not sick enough."

This has been mentioned before, that you get hit with some flu at first, then you feel better, then it comes back a week later with pneumonia.

Same story from a few members here regarding the covid-19 test, they were told they were not at risk and if they had symptoms and are ok, then odds are you had it, no need to test.

Kinda makes you think the number of reported cases is WAY higher than what we see reported on official sites.

 

[Aramsolari]

I've read that testing is crucial, that and contact tracing upon discovery of cases. Countries like South Korea and Singapore have done well because they were aggressive in both their testing and usage of contact tracing. I think those countries even developed apps to help investigators whenever there's an outbreak cluster.

On a side note what's really concerning right now is that even if you survive, you may have complications after. Complications that may be long term. The likelihood of this is even higher if you needed a ventilator. Ventilators are still essential in that they will save you, but the current guideline is that you have to be extremely sick to be administered one. My partner says that they're trying not to use ventilators on patients at her hospital as much possible. One of the methods they're using at her hospital is something as simple as having the patient lay on their belly, face down. We've definitely learned a lot about the virus since February but there's still a lot about it that we don't know.

On a positive note Covid19 in The Province of British Columbia seems to be on the wane. We have 33 new cases today and 2 new deaths for a total of 2288 cases and 126 deaths. The number of Covid19 patients in my partner's hospital is down to the low double digits. Officials in the province are cautiously optimistic. On a personal note, my industry falls under phase 3 of the reopening phase. We're looking to get back to work sometime in June or July as long as the current downward trends continue. Fingers crossed.

Our gradual reopening has to be measured and careful though. People will be trusted to maintain social distancing. Chief Health Official in my Province said it best...."The future is in our hands and we must continue to wash them." Witty.

 

[Radegast74]

This has been mentioned before, that you get hit with some flu at first, then you feel better, then it comes back a week later with pneumonia.

Same story from a few members here regarding the covid-19 test, they were told they were not at risk and if they had symptoms and are ok, then odds are you had it, no need to test.

Kinda makes you think the number of reported cases is WAY higher than what we see reported on official sites.

This was a young, healthy 24 year old, so very scary!

Absolutely...the true number of sick cases/exposed is probably way higher than the actual count. If we could get more testing and even an antibody test, and do a population sample, we would know a lot more about how to safely open the country.

 

[ColdDog]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[ColdDog]

Dallas salon owner released from county jail after defying orders by reopening early

The order followed Gov. Greg Abbott’s announcement that he was eliminating jail time for Texans who violate stay at home orders.

www.texastribune.org

This goes to the debate and the word "tyranny"... before everyone's minds blow, I will say I see both sides here,

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

UK numbers for today Friday 8th of May:

Total Confirmed 211,364 with 4,649 new, total dead 31,241 with 626 new (all settings, hospital only 423).

Todays status comes as one part of the UK, Wales, relaxes their lockdown measures by the equivalent of 1% by allowing more than one type of outdoors exercise a day:

Coronavirus: 'Modest' lockdown changes announced in Wales

People will be allowed to exercise outside more than once a day, First Minister Mark Drakeford says.

www.bbc.co.uk

England announcing their measures at the end of sunday...(?) or... the rest of the UK(?)... apart from Scotland who already announced theirs is continuing(?)... Erm...

Well there is a thing - with Devolution the four parts of the UK can, and indeed have, taken slightly different approaches. This has not gone unnoticed as pointed out in the following article from BBC Scotland:

Coronavirus: Mixed messages across the four nations

If the four nations of the UK can't agree on lifting the lockdown, some divergence is inevitable.

www.bbc.co.uk

The status outlook is based on that, small changes can make a huge difference, so it's all in the balance...

I expect the announcement at the end of Sunday for England to say too many silly bastards buggered off down the seaside over the bank holiday weekend and that we can't be trusted to relax the restrictions too much.

As indicated above, today is a bank holiday in the UK so that may have a knock-on effect on Mondays numbers too.

 

[Montoya]

I will say I see both sides here,

True, this not a clear right or wrong, but rather, the unknown repercussions.

If a month from now everybody that works there is still fine, nobody they get in contact with gets sick or dies, I say its a win.

 

[ColdDog]

https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/as-nfl-plans-for-2020-season-amid-covid-19-epidemic-safety-priority-no-1-for-kar

As the country prepares to take steps forward and remove stay-at-home orders in various states, players could in time reconvene with one another separate from team workouts. Before the epidemic, Lock had planned on hosting throwing sessions with the Broncos' wide receivers. That was put on hold, of course. On Tuesday, though, he said that he's still hoping to hold the workouts at some point.

"When it is socially acceptable to do that and have the best interest as far as health goes," Lock said of when he might plan those sessions. "I'm going to keep that in mind first, but then once that is ready, we're going to have all those guys out there. … Whenever the professionals say it's OK, whether that's the NFL or that's the actual CDC, whichever one, we're going to have them ready and we're going to get out there and start throwing and getting this chemistry down and get things rolling."

NFL Schedule 2024: Full Guide to NFL Schedule Release Date and Top Games

Vivid Seats has details on the 2024 NFL Schedule Release Date as well as team schedules, dates, and games for the 2024 season.

www.vividseats.com

 

[Radegast74]

Dallas salon owner released from county jail after defying orders by reopening early

The order followed Gov. Greg Abbott’s announcement that he was eliminating jail time for Texans who violate stay at home orders.

www.texastribune.org

This goes to the debate and the word "tyranny"... before everyone's minds blow, I will say I see both sides here,

True, this not a clear right or wrong, but rather, the unknown repercussions.

If a month from now everybody that works there is still fine, nobody they get in contact with gets sick or dies, I say its a win.

In a weird way, this shows the system is working. If you have a question like this in a democracy like ours, you go to court to get an answer! Of course, for most of us, this is too cost-prohibitive. So, either be rich, or find people to fund your lawyers.

Reading that article was like trying to follow a soap opera plot. It would be interesting to have a lawyer outline what the issues and precedents are. Executives have a lot of power, and in a public health emergency, have some fairly sweeping powers, in the name of public safety. On the other hand, laws are usually kept vague so there is a certain amount of leeway, and so it can be applied to the widest variety of cases. "Hard cases make bad law..."

In the case of a salon owner, there is some good data to show that they are a legitimate target for situations such as this, here is a graph of how often different professions are exposed to both people and diseases...look at hairdressers...: (this chart is from this article....dump your "nyt" cookies if you can't get behind the paywall...

The Workers Who Face the Greatest Coronavirus Risk (Published 2020)

Nurses and doctors rank high. But so do hairdressers and dentists.

www.nytimes.com

At the same time, cases in Texas are still increasing:

Maybe risk could be mitigated if hairdressers wore PPE? I'm not sure there is enough to go around, I think hospitals are still having difficulties getting all they need, still.

 

[Vavrik]

In a weird way, this shows the system is working. If you have a question like this in a democracy like ours, you go to court to get an answer! Of course, for most of us, this is too cost-prohibitive. So, either be rich, or find people to fund your lawyers.

Reading that article was like trying to follow a soap opera plot. It would be interesting to have a lawyer outline what the issues and precedents are. Executives have a lot of power, and in a public health emergency, have some fairly sweeping powers, in the name of public safety. On the other hand, laws are usually kept vague so there is a certain amount of leeway, and so it can be applied to the widest variety of cases. "Hard cases make bad law..."

In the case of a salon owner, there is some good data to show that they are a legitimate target for situations such as this, here is a graph of how often different professions are exposed to both people and diseases...look at hairdressers...: (this chart is from this article....dump your "nyt" cookies if you can't get behind the paywall...

The Workers Who Face the Greatest Coronavirus Risk (Published 2020)

Nurses and doctors rank high. But so do hairdressers and dentists.

www.nytimes.com

View attachment 15814

At the same time, cases in Texas are still increasing:
View attachment 15815

Maybe risk could be mitigated if hairdressers wore PPE? I'm not sure there is enough to go around, I think hospitals are still having difficulties getting all they need, still.

Well, in Texas wearing PPE or even using a tissue to cover your sneeze is "recommended" but optional. It's up to merchants if they want you to, then you wear it... if they don't care, then they don't care.

 

[ColdDog]

Maybe risk could be mitigated if hairdressers wore PPE? I'm not sure there is enough to go around, I think hospitals are still having difficulties getting all they need, still.

You made some good points but remember these facts:
1. Her clients gave her "consent"
2. She gave her clients "consent"

If two adults agree to something that is typically lawful, then they should have not had the book thrown at them. A lighter sentence would have been justified. In this case she was held in contempt because the judge said she was selfish and she replied she was not being selfish trying to feed her family.

So, she broke the law. The judge was unreasonable. Does two wrongs make a right?

Then there is the whole Constitution thing here, that will be in the courts for many years to come.

 

[ColdDog]

Dow ends week 455 points higher, shaking off the worst U.S. unemployment rate since the Great Depression

U.S. stock benchmarks close higher Friday, even though Labor Department data showed that 20.5 million jobs were lost in April, with the unemployment rate...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Radegast74]

You made some good points but remember these facts:
1. Her clients gave her "consent"
2. She gave her clients "consent"

If two adults agree to something that is typically lawful, then they should have not had the book thrown at them. A lighter sentence would have been justified. In this case she was held in contempt because the judge said she was selfish and she replied she was not being selfish trying to feed her family.

So, she broke the law. The judge was unreasonable. Does two wrongs make a right?

Then there is the whole Constitution thing here, that will be in the courts for many years to come.

Hold on there...it is a public safety issue, with regards to a communicable disease. They may willing *consent* without understanding all the implications, that is, they may then go out and infect other people who would otherwise not get infected. There is precedent for what is going on here...before anybody starts going "but muh RIGHTS" they probably want to educate themselves.

You know what a mess NYC was/still is? Patient "zero" was identified as a NY lawyer, who went on to infect 37 other people, at last count...not sure if the count has been updated, or if there has been a new patient 'zero' ... so there clearly is a public health issue (and in that case, the governor locked that town down).

Garbuz was directly connected to 37 other confirmed cases of coronavirus in New York, including his wife, two of their children and a neighbor. Following his diagnosis, a one-mile containment zone was set up around his synagogue, the Young Israel of New Rochelle.

Man at center of New Rochelle coronavirus outbreak released from hospital

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo says 'patient zero' is now home, asks people not to gather in groups for Passover; Lawrence Garbuz, 50, had been on a ventilator and in an induced coma

www.timesofisrael.com

People spend a lot of time in jail for contempt of court on various issues...Chelsea Manning spent, what was it, 8 months or more for contempt of court recently?

He noted that "Ms. Manning's appearance before the Grand Jury is no longer needed, in light of which her detention no longer serves any coercive purpose."

The point is, the Executive and/or the court is trying to coerce (as in persuade) a person to comply with a lawful order. You can fight if you want, you have that right. But, you may have to pay a cost (besides your lawyer's bill!).

I find people trying to make Constitutional mountains out of non-existant molehills a bit boring...

 

[ColdDog]

Today was the first day the county opened. I love it people are outside playing and enjoying life.

 

[ColdDog]

Hold on there...it is a public safety issue, with regards to a communicable disease.

Who are you to say! Chinese govt locked people in their houses and let them die.

Wuhan woman screams as Chinese authorities barricade her inside own home

Chinese authorities have been locking people with coronavirus inside their own homes.

metro.co.uk

You know what a mess NYC was/still is?

NYC will die on the vine, just like New York State. Companies can move anywhere in the US and function thanks to the internet. I have no sympothy for NYC, I've been in lock down too.

'Droves' of New Yorkers are looking to flee the city permanently

Among those fleeing are parents with young children who had already been eyeing moves to suburbs and frustrated singletons who no longer see the point in paying exorbitant rent prices.

www.dailymail.co.uk

You understand NYC was not prepared for this right? This is federalism - People of NY chose their own politicians and so the politicians chose what they were going to spend money on... apparently it was not ventilators or medical response. People choose to live on top of each other, this is what happens.

Please do NOT blame the rest of the country, most did the right thing, NY and NYC did not and I am sure the textbooks will have a lot to say about it. In this case NYC was not the only place affected.

People spend a lot of time in jail for contempt of court on various issues...Chelsea Manning spent, what was it, 8 months or more for contempt of court recently?

Chelsea a Manning is a confused person, and she (he) should have not been released from Prison. The only reason she was released was because she did not know what gender he/she was - it was a political move, nothing more.

The point is, the Executive and/or the court is trying to coerce (as in persuade) a person to comply with a lawful order. You can fight if you want, you have that right. But, you may have to pay a cost (besides your lawyer's bill!).

What is a "lawful" order? As I said the American Constitution will have its say on this after it is all over.

 

[Radegast74]

<wall of text>

Educate yourself, man! Otherwise, you are just going to feel whirled around by forces that you don't understand.

 

[AntiSqueaker]

What is a "lawful" order? As I said the American Constitution will have its say on this after it is all over.

They already did, in 1824. Gibbons v. Ogden was a landmark case about the federal government (specifically, Congress) having the the authority, namely right to invoke or suspend interstate travel, when need applies.

A more direct case was Compagnie Francaise de Navigation a Vapeur v. Louisiana Board of Health in 1902 which affirmed the LA Supreme Courts case that State quarantine law is reasonable exercise of police power and does not impermissibly affect interstate commerce nor violate Equal Protection or Due Process.

The shelter in place orders are more pervasive than either Compagnie Francaise or Gibbons laid out since they impact more businesses and have a wider scope but the legal precedence is there and 99.9% of the time the Supreme Court follows legal precedence unless new laws have been in place then or the circumstances are substantially different.

Source: legal textbook from my garage, memories from my constitutional law class, and 5 minutes of googling