Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

[Bambooza]

Just on your upfront deaths theorem, the UK had a significant number of upfront deaths in March. Now it's having an even bigger spike in deaths now (BBC graph screenshot below)... front loading doesn't seem to have done anything between 2020 and 2021 - When exactly are we going to see the positive results of it? In one year? Two years? Five? Maybe ten? If it's ten, the population isn't getting any younger and you'll have a whole new generation ageing into the most vulnerable groups before you see the benefit of letting the previous generations elderly and frail die early:


View attachment 20156

And come to think about it, what exactly would the benefit of front loading look like anyway? After the first wave in the UK the death rate in August just went back to the average, it didn't dip down in a trough of all the people who would have died soon anyway... what should we be looking out for as the benefit of all those dead early on in the pandemic?

Its a great question. And I am not sure there is any clear answer at this point in time. What we can look at is past epidemics as well as the seasonal flu for comparable metrics. In reality the total deaths would be only be able to be tallied once the population has a 80% immunity to the virus either by natural or by immunization. When it comes to natural immunity the only impact on the total deaths be it all at once at the front or spread over a couple of years is the small fraction that could have been saved in a worse case scenario where the medical community is overwhelmed and those who could have been saved are not treated. We will never know what the true number of those who would have perished with out medical intervention some published papers are putting it at a tenth of a percent. So we go from 2.7% to 2.6% but its hard to know who would have lived or died without medical treatment.

The other and by far biggest impact on total deaths due to Covid-19 is immunization. While immunization is not 100% and in fact there will be some deaths due to complications from the process it has the potential of reducing the current projected death by over half. Of course this relies on the immunity being highly effective in both targeting the current strain as well as the prompt distribution of the vaccine. And that comes to the crux of the dilemma as we are already seeing variants that are reducing the current vaccine from 80% effectiveness to less then 30% effectiveness and we have only just started rolling out the vaccine to a few million individuals and a year end coverage projected at less then 20% if manufacturing, distribution and administering holds to their planed rollout.

So how many more years of partial lockdown do we subjugate ourselves to?

Of course, to have upfront deaths you need to have the virus spread around. And the more it spreads, the more chance it has to mutate. Would there be a UK/SouthAfrica/Brazil set of variants which may be less effected by vaccines now if we had all done a New Zealand and got a hold of it early on and kept a lid on it? No one can say for certain but I'm sure those chances would have been a lot lot lower.

What is interesting about virus mutations with in a species is they typically do not get more sever only more infectious, and often times their severity goes down. The added bonus is those who survive the virus have the antibodies to reduce the severity on future infections.

For the most part if everyone on the planet stocked up with two weeks of provisions then shut our doors and sat it out, everyones immune systems would do their thing, the virus would be killed or kill, and that would be that. No more transmission, no more unprotected subjects to incubate in. Vaccinate key supply chain people to keep bits and bobs moving, and lock down the world for 14 days. Would it be difficult. Hell yeah. Would it bankrupt the world? Heck no just put everyone on a bills/mortgage/etc pause.

The world could put its feet up for two weeks and let biology do its job. Would it get rid of the virus entirely? Probably not, but it would get it down to a level the world would then be able to keep control of it. Won't happen though, the population doesn't have the desire or the imagination to suffer a short term to benefit a long term.
And you know how long it would take for the world to rid itself of COVID-19?

14 days.

If only this were true. Unfortunately Covid has always been zoonotic and while it might be possible to eradicate it in the human population in a month (would need to make sure enough time for worse case scenarios of slow transmission between family members) it would still jump back to us from infected animals. What is worse is because its zoonotic when when it gets introduced back into animal populations it has a significant higher chance of acquiring new skills and generating a new novel virus like the strain of Covid that we are currently dealing with.

 

[Vavrik]

So the question is real. What should we do from this point forward?

I know the question is real. What we should do is what is becoming a tired old story now.
Wear a mask. Practice social distancing. Wash your hands frequently.

Oh yeah especially if you live north of 40 degrees, take vitamin D. It's not up to me to say how much, but I take 5,000 IU (or125 mcg) every day. I was taking it anyway because I can't get enough benefit from sunlight due to a disability.

But that's about all we can do ourselves.

 

[PeppaPigKilla]

Another great government idea, if you test positive for covid we will give you £500 to isolate (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/proposal-to-pay-c2-a3500-to-those-who-test-positive-for-covid-splits-opinion/ar-BB1cZKlS)

Anyone see the problem this has?

 

[Bambooza]

I know the question is real. What we should do is what is becoming a tired old story now.
Wear a mask. Practice social distancing. Wash your hands frequently.

But that's about all we can do ourselves.

Is this the new normal? That we live in fear of contracting a virus that for most has a 3% chance of killing them (I know for some its significantly higher but the bell of age puts the vast majority of the population well with in the 3% risk factor),

Another great government idea, if you test positive for covid we will give you £500 to isolate (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/proposal-to-pay-c2-a3500-to-those-who-test-positive-for-covid-splits-opinion/ar-BB1cZKlS)

Anyone see the problem this has?

Its not very much money especially if your job cannot be done remotely. The second part is by the time you have tested positive its most likely you are showing signs of being sick and thus have already been shedding the virus and infecting others. We have to look no further then mutations first seen in the UK as well as another first seen in Denmark have already spread around the world.

 

[PeppaPigKilla]

Is this the new normal? That we live in fear of contracting a virus that for most has a 3% chance of killing them (I know for some its significantly higher but the bell of age puts the vast majority of the population well with in the 3% risk factor),



Its not very much money especially if your job cannot be done remotely. The second part is by the time you have tested positive its most likely you are showing signs of being sick and thus have already been shedding the virus and infecting others. We have to look no further then mutations first seen in the UK as well as another first seen in Denmark have already spread around the world.

The problem i'm referring to is that people will now intentionally seek out to get covid just for the payment.

 

[Vavrik]

Is this the new normal? That we live in fear of contracting a virus that for most has a 3% chance of killing them (I know for some its significantly higher but the bell of age puts the vast majority of the population well with in the 3% risk factor),

I don't know. Depends what the hell gets thrown at us next, and when. It's not a question of if either. Take a look at this list, paying close attention to the bottom. Most of this will not hurt us here, as long as our health care system stays intact. There are other factors too, weather, etc. But you really never know. Also as we currently see, our health care system is relatively easy to overwhelm. I think we might see a change in the next 20 years.

List of epidemics - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Bambooza]

I don't know. Depends what the hell gets thrown at us next, and when. It's not a question of if either. Take a look at this list, paying close attention to the bottom. Most of this will not hurt us here, as long as our health care system stays intact. There are other factors too, weather, etc. But you really never know. Also as we currently see, our health care system is relatively easy to overwhelm. I think we might see a change in the next 20 years.

List of epidemics - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Indeed and honestly beyond AIDs and the seasonal flu the last 60 years have been surprisingly calm. And perhaps this has lead to a false sense of security from pathogens. After all look at the reaction that happened when a few patients with Ebola were brought to Europe and USA. To think before 1960's when Measles vaccine became wide spread it would kill on average 7 to 8 million children a year in populations that had a natural immunity to it ~1%. In populations that had gone more then 60 years with out Measles would see it impacting upwards of 2% death and populations that had never seen the virus before would have 20% to 50% of the population die.

In fact Smallpox and Measles are great examples of how vaccines on slow mutating virus can be very effective. Even still it took over a decade for a Measles vaccine to be made that was a single shot and production/distribution to allow for world wide distribution and yet there is parts of the world that have less then 50% coverage. (2018)

It was honestly my hope that Covid-19 would be more stable or that the mRNA would have been more successful in picking a binding site that was stable allowing similar results even if it took multiple years for wide spread coverage. And while it is still possible that timeline has moved from being a year to being over 5 years away. In the mean time the current vaccine is looking to be about 20% to 30 % effective and so I ask again. Do we continue to live in this partial lockdown for the next 5 to 10 years? Will the general public even tolerate that or will the realization that there is no fast cure and its going to be years and in fact it could be decades before any sort of effective measure is created beyond the simple fact people most people will develop a natural immunity. While some will have long lasting complications it is nothing that has not been dealt with before.

Also as we currently see, our health care system is relatively easy to overwhelm. I think we might see a change in the next 20 years.

Health care until its automated will always be overwhelmed due to the high cost derived from the highly specialized and long train time required as well as the number of persons required to treat one sick.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Repports from around the world from today, Friday 22nd of January:

- World: 97,746,797 confirmed cases and 2,097,263 confirmed deaths.

- World: Sees one year to the day since the first Lockdown in Wuhan.

- UK: Prime Minister announces new COVID variant is associated with a higher mortality rate, which may be as high as 30% more lethal than original COVID-19.

- UK: A wedding in London consisting of 400 guests is broken up by police as it breached the rule of 6 gathering limit by some 6000%.

- UK: 5000 army medics now working in UK medical system to help out amidst high case loads.

- UK: Early Years (nursery/kindergarten) staff who have had to continue going to work as they were not closed with the rest of lockdown reported to have had a COVID case rate of 1 in 10, whereas the average in England is 1 in 50 , with 50% of the workforce saying they did not feel safe at work. Central Government responds that children of this age range were "unlikely to be playing a driving role in transmission".

- UK: Scientist on a radio interview posited the following thought: "Essentially we found that it’s going to be pretty much impossible to get to a level that we have herd immunity either with the vaccination or indeed with natural infection because of the chance that people will have second infections after their first one."

- Portugal: Sees record high new daily deaths.

- Germany: Sees first case of Brazilian variant.

- Macau: Island sees first COVID cases in 209 days, imported in a returning traveler.

- Europe: As expected the announced supply shortfall in Pfizer vaccines causes vaccines programs in some parts of Europe to stall.

- Movies: James Bond No Time To Die delayed for a third time.

 

[Bambooza]

It’s Not Just You: Everyone’s Mental Health Is Suffering

If you’re thinking, “Oh, I just need to suck it up,” stop. What you’re feeling is real. Here’s how to cope.

www.wired.com

 

[Vavrik]

- Europe: As expected the announced supply shortfall in Pfizer vaccines causes vaccines programs in some parts of Europe to stall.

I can't believe that all of this is Government run mishaps. If Pfizer can't handle the logistics, they need to be up front about it - especially if they've been paid or have contracts to provide it.

 

[Bambooza]

I can't believe that all of this is Government run mishaps. If Pfizer can't handle the logistics, they need to be up front about it - especially if they've been paid or have contracts to provide it.

I believe its a mixture of both as well as a learning curve in regards to distribution of medical supplies that require special storage. We have cases in California were correct refrigeration was not available and so they ended up just giving it out randomly to those who happen to be in the area so as to not waste it.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Saturday 23rd of January:

- World: 98,424,940 confirmed cases and 2,113,375 confirmed deaths.

- World: passes 98 million cases, we passed 97 million on Thursday meaning another million cases in the last 2/3 days.

- UK: Passes sees a grim record as passes 4,000 seriously ill patients currently on Ventilators (mechanically assisted breathing where the patient has to be unconscious), which is the last option treatment. total number of people in hospital still over 37k. The first wave had a peak of 3,301 people on ventilators at any one time.

- UK: Scientists criticize Prime Minister for announcing to the public that the new variant of COVID has a higher mortality rate. This claim was made on very new data which apparently was "not particularly strong" meaning it needs a lot more investigation before it can be proved one way or another.

- UK: London, and police are injured attempting to break up and fine 200 party goers as they attempt to flee fines.

- UK: AstraZeneca warns due to production issues deliveries of vaccine will be lower than expected to begin with.

- Portugal: Sees record high daily new cases and deaths.

- Sri Lanka: Health Minister who promoted a herbal COVID syrup preventative medicine tests positive.

- Czech Republic: Restaurants and pubs open in protest of governments handling of the crisis, having been closed since October “We have been disappointed with the government for a long time and we want to show that it had chosen the wrong way,”

- WHO: In the face of calls for medical masks to be worn buy the public, WHO indicates cloth masks still work as well as they ever did as the virus is still transmitted the same way.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - reports from around the world from today, Sunday 24th of January:

- World: 98,986,275 confirmed cases and 2,125,192 confirmed deaths.

- US: Passes 25 million confirmed cases.

- US: A senior Aide indicates the previous administration had no plan for the rollout of the COVID vaccines "The process to distribute the vaccine, particularly outside of nursing homes and hospitals out into the community as a whole, did not really exist when we came into the White House."

- US: Report indicates since November the number of hospitals struggling with COVID cases has doubled: "More than 40% of Americans now live in areas running out of ICU space, with only 15% of beds still available."

- US: Announces ban on travelers from 30 countries including UK and South Africa.

- UK: Reports 77 cases of South African variant.

- UK: 6.3 million people have now had first dose of vaccine.

- UK: Heavy snow shuts some vaccination centers and makes getting to other ones difficult for some people.

- UK: Scandal, as 500+ cases of COVID have occurred at the DVLA government department (Driver and Vehicle License Agency) after staff were refused to be allowed to work from home and were encouraged to deactivate/delete the (In connotation with)NHS Track and Trace App so they would not be contacted to self isolate. A government spokes man insisted the building which housed the agency was a "COVID Safe" environment, while anonymous statements indicate staff had their jobs threatened if they didn't return to work after 10 days self isolation if they did catch the virus.

- UK: Government science spokesman warns vaccinated people may still be capable of spreading the virus and that at the moment science just doesn't know, so everyone should keep following the restrictions until more of the population can be treated.

- Germany: To be first European country to use artificial antibody treatment as used to treat former President Trump: "The government has bought 200,000 doses for 400 million euros ($486 million)"

- New Zealand: Sees first case outside of quarantine in two months, in someone who had returned from traveling and had completed their 2 weeks self isolation just two days prior.

- Serbia: Reports first case of UK variant.

- Greece: Detects UK Varient in people who have not traveled, meaning it is now spreading in the community.

- Netherlands: A protest on Lockdown in Amsterdam attended by hundreds took a drastic turn as vehicles burned and business looted - police unleash water canon, tear gas and dogs in response.

- Egypt: Begins vaccination program.

- World: Israel releases report that first shot of vaccine may be as low as 33% effective whereas previously it was believed to have been as high as 80% hence countries extending the time between the first and second dose to increase coverage of limited doses... World moves to investigate and substantiate claim.

 

[PeppaPigKilla]

- UK: Scandal, as 500+ cases of COVID have occurred at the DVLA government department (Driver and Vehicle License Agency) after staff were refused to be allowed to work from home and were encouraged to deactivate/delete the (In connotation with)NHS Track and Trace App so they would not be contacted to self isolate. A government spokes man insisted the building which housed the agency was a "COVID Safe" environment, while anonymous statements indicate staff had their jobs threatened if they didn't return to work after 10 days self isolation if they did catch the virus.

I'm sure a few pages back i referred to something similar happening in other businesses. I feel fortunate that the company i work for does not do this.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

I'm sure a few pages back i referred to something similar happening in other businesses. I feel fortunate that the company i work for does not do this.

The company I work for has found it to have increased productivity, morale, cut costs and overall have been a success. I'm sure it can't be that way in all scenarios but one wonders if they'd only have tried what kind of success they may have been met with?

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Monday 25th of January:

- World: 99,396,099 confirmed cases and 2,134,210 confirmed deaths.

- World: Passes 99 million cases, we passed 98 million on Saturday meaning another million cases in the last 2/3 days.

- World: Moderna says its vaccine works against the new strains first discovered in UK and South Africa.

- US: New strain of COVID found in California which appears to be spreading through the state faster than any other found so far. It was detected while researchers were hunting for cases of the UK version. Apparently a single case was detected in July, but then vanished only to have returned with a vengeance.

- UK: COVID deaths up 10% week-on-week, however new hospital admissions are at lowest level since December 31st (2,780).

- EU: Threatens to withhold exports of vaccines made in the Bloc as AstraZeneca advises production issues at their Belgium factory may half the planned doses due to be delivered in the first quarter. “This new schedule is not acceptable to the European Union. That is why I wrote a letter to the company at the weekend in which I asked important and serious questions. The European Union has pre-financed the development of the vaccine and its production, and wants to see the return.”

- UK: Couple fined for driving 130 miles to Yorkshire for a Sunday Lunch after a family member was not available to cook for them. The police issued the following statement: "We know nobody does Yorkshire puddings better than us here in Yorkshire... but they're really not worth getting into trouble for."

- China: Tests 2 million people in Beijing in two days, but detects only one case.

- Spain: Sees record high new cases.

- US: Band The Flaming Lips plays pair of unique concerts, with all attendees in their own individual inflatable balls.

- Mexico: President announces he has tested positive for COVID-19.

- US: Merck, a Pharmaceutical company, ends work on its pair of vaccine candidates following disappointing trial results. It will instead turn it's attention to researching drugs to help treat patients instead.

- Iceland: Plans to introduce vaccination certificates so those treated will become exempt from restrictions.

 

[PeppaPigKilla]

- Iceland: Plans to introduce vaccination certificates so those treated will become exempt from restrictions.

this is dangerous

 

[Michael]

this is dangerous

Some politicians had that "great" idea here too. Until now they quickly got stopped.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Tuesday 26th of January:

- World: 99,825,219 confirmed cases and 2,143,198 confirmed deaths.

- UK: Passes 100,000 confirmed deaths. At the beginning of the Pandemic it was suggested that 80k would be the worst of worst case scenarios meaning at present 25% worse than could have been imagined in March 2020. The death rate remains high, although peak of cases appears to have passed and is on the way down... for this wave.

- UK: Plan appears to be on the cards to have Quarantine Hotels where incoming travelers will have to pay for a 10 day stay to be clear to then travel in the country.

- UK: Head of NHS indicates they hope COVID will become much more treatable in the coming year or so: "There are a number of others (treatments) in the pipeline and I think it is possible that over the course of the next six to 18 months coronavirus also becomes a much more treatable disease with antivirals and other therapies, which alongside the vaccination programme, holds out the hope of a return to a much more normal future."

- UK: Ministers reassure public that the Vaccine supply remains safe following reports EU may ban exports, indicating it "opposes protectionism in all its forms".

- EU: Late reports indicate the trading bloc to require pharmaceutical companies to register vaccine exports but draws short at banning them. Unclear if this is because they suspect doses produced are being sold to highest bidders rather than fulfilling existing contracts - but it sounds like it?

- Spain: Pharmaceutical company PharmaMar announces trial results of its drug Aplidin when used to treat COVID in animals: "A study carried out in vitro and in vivo by a team of scientists in New York, San Francisco and Paris showed Aplidin (plitidepsin) leads to a reduction of viral replication, resulting in a 99% reduction of viral loads in the lungs of animals,"

- US: Makers of Regeneron, the artificial antibody treatment given to ex-president Trump, indicate that it provides immunity against new version/s of COVID based on the results of a 400 person trial.

- Mauritius: Begins vaccination program.

- Iran: Approves SputnikV vaccine.

- Netherlands: Sees third night of civil unrest over restrictions including a curfew. More than 150 arrested across the country.

- Italy: Prime Minister resigns over COVID funding.

- Columbia: Defense Minister dies of COVID-19

- Portugal: Sees record high new daily deaths.

- Slovakia: Testing of 2.6 million of the 5.5 million population identifies 30,556 cases.

- Latin America: Areas richest man, Carlos Slim, tests positive for COVID.

- Canada: CEO of a casino company valued at $2 billion quits, after he and his wife traveled to remote part of the country and posed as Motel workers to receive inoculations.

- US: Gorillas at San Diego Zoo who tested positive weeks ago expected to make a full recovery. “We’re not seeing any of that lethargy. No coughing, no runny noses anymore,” Peterson said. “It feels to us like we’ve turned the corner.”

- UK: 31 London Police officers fines £200 each for breaking lockdown to have haircuts while on duty at a police station. "It is deeply disappointing and frustrating that my officers have fallen short of the expectation to uphold Covid-19 regulations." Apparently money was donated to charity at the event, however the two people who organized it are now facing misconduct investigations.

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

- US: Gorillas at San Diego Zoo who tested positive weeks ago expected to make a full recovery. “We’re not seeing any of that lethargy. No coughing, no runny noses anymore,” Peterson said. “It feels to us like we’ve turned the corner.”

I couldn't help myself.