Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Aramsolari

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Fundamentally the response to Covid19 has been transformed from a healthcare issue to a political issue and that's a problem.

The countries that are handling this well have governments that defer to scientists and medical professionals. These governments don't have political leaders second guessing their medical experts live on TV or suggesting unproven treatments on the fly. I don't know when this recent trend of anti-intellectualism started to take root but it really needs to stop. People really need to start trusting experts again instead of Karen on Youtube or Alex on daytime Talk Radio.
 

Bambooza

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In other parts of the world, they have much stricter driving requirements...the US is something of a joke in comparison...

Anyway, re: freedom of speech, here is the relevant XKCD comic:
I mostly agree with the xkcd comic. But as I said there should be a distinct line drawn between being a publisher (Ability to moderate out any content you want for any reason but you are also fully liable for what gets hosted on your site) and being a public forum (only should moderate out illegal stuff) but are no longer liable for what gets posted on your site. Google shouldn't be able to act as a publisher while still claiming no liability as a public forum.

ut we're talking about medical professionals that are espousing practices that are contrary to what the numbers and experts in the field are telling us. They are giving opinions that are based around a relatively small sample size and anecdotal evidence.
Yep, which is why I said I didn't necessarily agree with them. But their testing and numbers should be included in the conversation as its not worthless data, and some of their ideas have merit and should be considered. But as the New York Times graphics so kindly showed this virus so far has pushed the daily death rates far beyond what the seasonal flue typically does in fact in some instances it becomes the number one killer surpassing heart disease.


If I may inteject a question about this COVID thing we were originally all hyped up about:

If someone had the virus, is it still detectable in their blood sample (or otherwise) if they had only mild symptoms, and were suffering from these symptoms roughly 4-5-6 Months ago?

I had friends who were in Wuhan and traveling in the region right around the questionable point in time when this might have actually started, which we now know was at least a couple of weeks* before anything was reported on it. One was on an inspection trip going to pharmaceutical facilities, the other was on a long vacation, passing through the region. They both were ill for 1-2 weeks after getting home. It might be totally unrelated, just asking out of curiosity.

*(even without the Chinese govt. holding back info, with only having a few serious cases early on that obvisouly didn't trigger any warnings and the 2 week gestation period it can easily be well over a month+ before any reports, and it could have been spreading already by asymptomatic carriers, so in theory they could have gotten it, maybe)
The current virus test only detects if you are currently infected or not. It does not know if you had the virus and are now over it which is where the antibody test comes into play. It looks for the antibodies that were created to fight off the infection and in the case of Influenza hang around for over a year. These antibodies help to significantly speed up the identity and fighting off future infections and the whole reason the seasonal flu shot even works.

As for the Antibody test for SARS-CoV-2 the tests are still in the early development and it looks like Roche has just been given a green light to start testing. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/roche-s-covid-19-antibody-test-gets-fda-emergency-use-approval
 
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Bambooza

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Yeah great, but unless it can travel through mindwaves, it's highly unlikely they got the same thing. We are not from the US lol. I don't think we had an influenza outbreak at the time, but as I said, it might be unrelated to covid, like someone on the plane being sick and infecting them with whatever it was.
My question remains, are the antibodies still in your system 5-6 months after for you had Covid as well?
A good question and one the medical community is still attempting to deal with.

 
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Montoya

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That is your choice (you alone) and can hide for 1 year. But to marginalize a different opinion based on their accent/religious beliefs/knowledge is wrong. Small business can't tolerate this indefinitely... I thought a business person would get it.
I have plenty of friends who run or work at small business who are suffering. This is where the federal govt needs to step in and stop giving billions to large conglomerates! 40% of businesses in the US are small companies that make under $100K. These are the people that need immediate help now! Instead the fast business loans went to the NBA and places that do not need the money!

1588523798030.png



Yeah... so what... they have their views like you do. Are they breaking laws? No. Are they protected by the constitution of the US? Yes. I'd say move to Canada if you don't like it, but you already did. Do they look "scary", yes, that is their point - doesn't take a rocket science to see the psychological affect it has on snowflakes (out of their control so they freak out - that is why we call them snowflakes because they melt). Why America separated from England - big government and tyranny.
That lovely tree lined neighborhood in Raleigh looks like almost any neighborhood in the area. It is middle class, filled with young, working class parents who are in the financial, tech or health industry. They walk their two young kids aged 4 and 7, and one medium sized dog around the block every evening.

These idiots in the video think the best way to protest being hold to stay home is by cosplaying a heavily armed militia in a nice quiet Raleigh neighborhood... gotcha. If I had a time machine and went to 1775 to get some REAL patriot militia and brought them to a lovely tree lined neighborhood in Raleigh, and told them that those people there are protesting a tyranical government, they would laugh their assess off at how stupid we have become.

Lets be clear on a few, things. Almost my neighbors in Raleigh had guns, this is is North Carolina, we love our guns! But tell me honestly, how much faith do you have in a complete stranger with a gun? If you served, you have some degree of faith that the soldier, marine or sailor next to you have had plenty of practice and is at least proficient with his rifle or sidearm.

How much trust do you put in some dipshit with his AR doing some open carry in the middle of Walmart?

Never mind strangers, I dont trust anybody being close to a firearm unless Ive spend time at a range with them and seen their ability to handle the weapon!

My one neighbor who was active reserves was standing outside on the lawn, I walked over and chatted as most neighbors do the warm NC summer evenings. Our conversation moves to the new SIG P320 he just bought. Cool I say, I love that gun, lets see it! He reaches into his belt holster to show me the weapon. Pulls out the mag and proceeds to do a chamber check while pointing the fucking thing at my leg! I sidestep away and push the barrel towards the ground, he says "chill man! Its not loaded!". Well how the fuck am I supposed to know? And why the fuck are you even pointing that shit at me?

I don't trust anybody with anything larger than a stick! And I certainly do not trust "protesters" in a quiet tree lined neighborhood, where I walk my kids and dog, protesting their interpretation of tyranny in full tacticool gear and decked out AR-15's.

doesn't take a rocket science to see the psychological affect it has on snowflakes (out of their control so they freak out - that is why we call them snowflakes because they melt).
Hang on... in your first quoted sentence at the top of this post you said :

to marginalize a different opinion based on their accent/religious beliefs/knowledge is wrong.
By your own definition, is it wrong to group people as snowflakes?

As an example, it turns out some black guy kneeling during the anthem triggers plenty of snowflakes, because its out of their control so they freak out, thats why we call them snowflakes because they melt.

I guess when somebody disagrees with a form a protest, they are a snowflake, but the thing is, it works both ways. That is the irony of people that use that term, it implies that they themselves are above being offended by anything, its only the other side that is always offended. This is not true.
 

Montoya

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On the topic of North Carolina, they were fast to act and one of the better states to handle the outbreak.

Now is not the time to be relaxing the rules:

1588526818798.png


Highest count of new cases these past two days, but overall the increase was tapered and none of the hospitals have been overrun, which is a good sign that these actions have worked.
 
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ColdDog

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These are the people that need immediate help now! Instead the fast business loans went to the NBA and places that do not need the money!
Agreed.

and told them that those people there are protesting a tyranical government, they would laugh their assess off at how stupid we have become.
It may be funny, it may be scary, but democracy/federalism/constitution concepts are messy. Especially, when that is THEIR right to assemble, Freedom of Speech, and carry guns, etc. The point is, they can do it and they were not breaking the law. You may not like it, but that is OUR problem, not theirs. In Colorado, we have open carry laws, and concealed as well, which is what I use. Because I live in Boulder, people are very sensitive about guns, but we're all armed to the hilt here, we just don't show it.

I don't trust anybody with anything larger than a stick!
That is your choice... bottom line is the US Constitution protects their right to do that. It does not protect the right of organizations hurting other people like Antifa.

How much trust do you put in some dipshit with his AR doing some open carry in the middle of Walmart?
Again, if they can do it legally, they they can do it.

By your own definition, is it wrong to group people as snowflakes?
You are correct. It can be construed as a derogatory term. Just like racist, snowflake, etc. Think of all the labels one tribe has given to the other throughout the ages.


How does this fit into the COVID-19 debate you ask?

US Perspective

1. Incident A is observed - Covid-19 in China.
2. China has the responsibly to report the activity to the WHO and other organizations.
3. Govt organizations like the WHO have the responsibly to address the incident
4. If the incident is not properly addressed then incident A becomes a world crisis.
5. Deaths and Economy shutdowns ensue.
6. Federal governments initiate a lock down - but can ONLY advise states to do it - because the US is a federalist system (Consent by the states)
7. Scientists are given a head start as much as possible to address the issue - like 2 months
8. If the scientists are not ready by time x - the world needs to make a choice with the economies and how to manage it.
9. People being isolated begins to take its toll. Weddings, birthdays, graduations, etc are canceled.
10. Businesses begin to go under because they may only have enough cash reserves for 1-2 months
11. People end up losing their jobs because businesses can't afford the overhead without revenue
12. Highest unemployment rates since the 1930s
13. Federal government advises the reopen of the country (US)
14. Reopen is initiated by the federal government, but the states actually decide the reopen.
15. Some governors end up suppressing individual liberties that violate the Constitution - DOJ needs to step in
16. This inflames a already bad situation because the constitution spells out what politicians can do to the citizenry.
17. 2 months in suicide rates, domestic violence, and crime rise significantly
18. People begin to question if the deaths and misery of #17 exceed the misery index of the virus itself
19. World economy is nearly destroyed and the third world nations pay the most significant price

Point is we go from a scientific problem --> governmental problem --> social problem... of course it is not that simplistic but I am trying to take the point of view, that this virus will pass, what happens next is up to us. Since, its almost 1pm I'll go have my first beer of the day. So stay tuned :)
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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UK numbers for today Sunday 3rd of May:

More jiggery pokery sees the official numbers now show all deaths in hospital and all deaths in all other settings (Handy for my charts). I will continue with them combined to try to provide some kind of consistency.

Total confirmed cases 186,599 with 4,339 new, total deaths 28,446 with 711 new (396 Hospital, 315 All Settings(?))

Chartorama03-05-20.jpg


EDIT - An observation on the latest numbers: With the split between Hospital Only and All Settings one assumes the gap between the Hosp and All will always increase, as the other settings will be in addition to the hospital numbers which are also in All Settings... So since the All Settings data came out from the 29th onwards, the gap between Hospital Only and All increased predictably, until today where it dropped...?

29th - 3811
30th - 3980 (Plus 169)
1st - 4281 (Plus 301)
2nd - 4430 (Plus 149)
3rd - 4349 (Minus 81)

There will be some kind of explanation somewhere, perhaps there has been another amendment to the historical numbers, but one would expect the All Settings which to this point included hospital numbers to be higher than yesterdays...?

Also, the usual it's the weekend so numbers are not reliable caveat applies.
 
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Aramsolari

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UK numbers for today Sunday 3rd of May:

More jiggery pokery sees the official numbers now show all deaths in hospital and all deaths in all other settings (Handy for my charts). I will continue with them combined to try to provide some kind of consistency.

Total confirmed cases 186,599 with 4,339 new, total deaths 28,446 with 711 new.

View attachment 15718
Considering the nature of the data covered, I can't say I enjoy these updates (I mean one can't really enjoy updates on a Pandemic haha). What I do enjoy are you status pictures lol. Keep them coming. :o7:
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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Considering the nature of the data covered, I can't say I enjoy these updates (I mean one can't really enjoy updates on a Pandemic haha). What I do enjoy are you status pictures lol. Keep them coming. :o7:
I think of all the information I have been able to convey with these updates, the Status's have been the most accurate :like:
 
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Montoya

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@ColdDog I appreciate the response, but at no point am I being critical of their 2A. Im being critical of them protesting in a quiet Raleigh neighborhood. They have every right to be there, but lets think about this for a second...

You and I are pissed about the local state and federal government shutting everything down. You and I want to go protest!

Do we get dressed in our camo outfit and go stand on a quiet street where dads take their kids for an evening walk, or do we go to the stairs of the local courthouse, or governors mansion and do it there?

I sure as hell do not want my kids playing around some stranger who drove 15 miles to flash his AR in my neighborhood! He has ever right, but I also have the right to tell him to gtfo out of my neighborhood because his message of intimidation is not really intimidating the right people.

They should go protest outside Fort Bragg which is not too far away. See how the people who wear camo as part of the job laugh at them as they drive onto base.
 
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Montoya

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On the topic of re-opening, this explains it perfectly!

1588533651855.png


While mostly a joke, its fairly accurate.

For those states that did get over the hump, there is enough capacity in the hospitals to take care of the projected number of future cases that may be getting wheeled in.

Its not over, but if you get sick, odds are there are enough beds to keep you alive.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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Its not over, but if you get sick, odds are there are enough beds to keep you alive.
Remember: being admitted to hospital isn't a guarantee you will survive:

Some data:
London: "Researchers identified a total of 388 patients who received advanced respiratory support, with 128 (33%) of these patients also receiving basic respiratory support. Another 160 patients received basic respiratory support only. Of the 388 patients in the advanced or advanced+basic respiratory support group, 83.8% died, compared to only 16.3% mortality in the basic respiratory support group."

Italy: "A study of 1,591 critically-ill patients COVID-19 in Italy found that a subset of 1,287 patients needed respiratory support. Of those 1,287 patients, 88% (1,150 patients) were intubated and 11% (137 patients) received NIV. At the conclusion of the study, 58% of overall patients (920) were still in the ICU. Of the remaining 651 patients with recorded outcomes, 39.3% (256) were discharged from the ICU while 62.2% (405) died."

Wuhan: "Research published in Lancet Respiratory Medicine looked at critical care patients in Wuhan in the early weeks of the novel coronavirus epidemic [...] Of the 37 patients receiving mechanical ventilation, 94% died."

Seattle: "An analysis of 24 patients admitted to the ICU in Seattle, Washington found significant mortality for those requiring mechanical ventilation. According to the study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, by day eighteen, overall mortality was 50% (12 patients), with 3 remaining intubated in the ICU, 4 transferred out of the ICU, and 5 were discharged home. Eleven of the 12 deaths occurred in the first 10 days of ICU care (mean 6.5 days)."

Mechanical breathing assistance is the best treatment we currently have for severe cases, but it is not a cure.
 
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Fischmaster

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Remember: being admitted to hospital isn't a guarantee you will survive:

Some data:
London: "Researchers identified a total of 388 patients who received advanced respiratory support, with 128 (33%) of these patients also receiving basic respiratory support. Another 160 patients received basic respiratory support only. Of the 388 patients in the advanced or advanced+basic respiratory support group, 83.8% died, compared to only 16.3% mortality in the basic respiratory support group."

Italy: "A study of 1,591 critically-ill patients COVID-19 in Italy found that a subset of 1,287 patients needed respiratory support. Of those 1,287 patients, 88% (1,150 patients) were intubated and 11% (137 patients) received NIV. At the conclusion of the study, 58% of overall patients (920) were still in the ICU. Of the remaining 651 patients with recorded outcomes, 39.3% (256) were discharged from the ICU while 62.2% (405) died."

Wuhan: "Research published in Lancet Respiratory Medicine looked at critical care patients in Wuhan in the early weeks of the novel coronavirus epidemic [...] Of the 37 patients receiving mechanical ventilation, 94% died."

Seattle: "An analysis of 24 patients admitted to the ICU in Seattle, Washington found significant mortality for those requiring mechanical ventilation. According to the study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, by day eighteen, overall mortality was 50% (12 patients), with 3 remaining intubated in the ICU, 4 transferred out of the ICU, and 5 were discharged home. Eleven of the 12 deaths occurred in the first 10 days of ICU care (mean 6.5 days)."

Mechanical breathing assistance is the best treatment we currently have for severe cases, but it is not a cure.
This is exactly the scary thing. If you have symptoms, after 9 days you seem to be at the crossroads to recovery or to the hospital. 3 days since admission and its either home or ICU. 70% leave the ICU alive. For 30% it's game over. And there are no reliable predictors if you'll get mild or heavy somptoms.
100-year-olds survived this and 9-year olds have died.
2 months ago we had Chloroquin as a treatment, now we know about cardiac problems. I fear that we will learn something new about Remdesivir, as well and then it's back to square one, again.
 

ColdDog

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They should go protest outside Fort Bragg which is not too far away. See how the people who wear camo as part of the job laugh at them as they drive onto base.
Being stationed at Bragg, I understand, but the people have a right to protest (with guns) outside of Bragg. Constitution does not discriminate. Now there are caveat, if the base sees them as a true threat, meaning they are going to attack, then that is a different problem. If these numskulls, were stupid enough to protest with guns/no violence, then they may have standing against Bragg, or Bragg may have standing against them... if no one was hurt or proven to be a threat, in a court of law... they can protest outside of Bragg with their weapons, although I'd say that would be stupid protesting with "guns" and playing with fire. Protesters are legally justified to sue the Federal Govt, but trying to prove intentions are hard, especially if they were there protesting - which implies they had some sort of grievance.

The people in the neighborhood, I am sorry, and I understand. There are different mechanisms to deal with this behavior, but it needs to be done within the guidelines of the US Constitution.
 
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