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Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread
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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Sunday 12th of July:
- UK: Kings College London study finds people who have been infected's antibody levels sharply drop off after 3 months after recovering with only 17% retaining a "potent" response suggesting long term immunity may be an issue going forward. A professor from Cambridge university stressed that this adds evidence to immunity being short term and puts another nail in the coffin of the Herd Immunity theory and went on to say “I cannot underscore how important it is that the public understands that getting infected by this virus is not a good thing. Some of the public, especially the youth, have become somewhat cavalier about getting infected, thinking that they would contribute to herd immunity. Not only will they place themselves at risk, and others, by getting infected, and losing immunity, they may even put themselves at greater risk of more severe lung disease if they get infected again in the years to come.”
- UK: Senior government figure Michael Gove, states he doesn't believe face masks in shops need to become mandatory and he feels it would be better to trust the public will just do it because it's 'common sense'. Current use of masks in shops is around 25%. People aren't doing it now: If it was a common sense matter, near 100% would already be doing it
- US: Florida sets another single day record of 15,300 new cases.
- Wales: Lockdown lifting results in what the police describe as "Unsavory scenes" as people let their hair down and some silly bastards resort to fisticuffs.
- World: Total reported cases now stand at 12.5 million with 565,000 deaths.
- US/Japan: Number of US Military staff infected in Okinawa reported to be 61.
- India: Number of infections close to 850,000, lockdown restrictions to be reimposed in densely populated areas.
- UK/General Knowledge: Virologist Wendy Barclay from Imperial College London advises in interview that virus can remain suspended in the air on particles many times smaller than the width of a human hair indoors for up to 1 hour, and air conditioning cannot be relied upon to remove/reduce it as some types of AC could simply push it around the room whereas others replenish the air. Also reiterates that fact that face coverings are very much a "protect others from you" measure that definitely helps in reducing the amount of the particles in the air.
- UK: Kings College London study finds people who have been infected's antibody levels sharply drop off after 3 months after recovering with only 17% retaining a "potent" response suggesting long term immunity may be an issue going forward. A professor from Cambridge university stressed that this adds evidence to immunity being short term and puts another nail in the coffin of the Herd Immunity theory and went on to say “I cannot underscore how important it is that the public understands that getting infected by this virus is not a good thing. Some of the public, especially the youth, have become somewhat cavalier about getting infected, thinking that they would contribute to herd immunity. Not only will they place themselves at risk, and others, by getting infected, and losing immunity, they may even put themselves at greater risk of more severe lung disease if they get infected again in the years to come.”
- UK: Senior government figure Michael Gove, states he doesn't believe face masks in shops need to become mandatory and he feels it would be better to trust the public will just do it because it's 'common sense'. Current use of masks in shops is around 25%. People aren't doing it now: If it was a common sense matter, near 100% would already be doing it
- US: Florida sets another single day record of 15,300 new cases.
- Wales: Lockdown lifting results in what the police describe as "Unsavory scenes" as people let their hair down and some silly bastards resort to fisticuffs.
- World: Total reported cases now stand at 12.5 million with 565,000 deaths.
- US/Japan: Number of US Military staff infected in Okinawa reported to be 61.
- India: Number of infections close to 850,000, lockdown restrictions to be reimposed in densely populated areas.
- UK/General Knowledge: Virologist Wendy Barclay from Imperial College London advises in interview that virus can remain suspended in the air on particles many times smaller than the width of a human hair indoors for up to 1 hour, and air conditioning cannot be relied upon to remove/reduce it as some types of AC could simply push it around the room whereas others replenish the air. Also reiterates that fact that face coverings are very much a "protect others from you" measure that definitely helps in reducing the amount of the particles in the air.
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Does anyone have the charts from the very beginning of the outbreak predicting the number of infected / deaths every day? I'm wondering how our current numbers relate.
COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Monday 13th of July:
- World: It took 3 months to reach the first million infections - the latest million, just 5 days.
- UK: Mixed face mask messages continue from the government following yesterdays "common sense" comments - It has now been insisted that no, people really should be wearing face masks in shops, and that it will be decided if enforcement is needed "in a couple of days" - because why do today what can be put off until tomorrow. Or the day after that. Or next month. Or when the confirmed cases start to rise again.
- UK: Cornish pub owner installs electric fence in front of bar to ensure social distancing is adhered to.
- World: World Heath Organization states that too many countries are still going in the wrong direction and unless drastic action is taken pandemic will only get worse and criticizes mixed messages from leaders. "If the basics aren't followed there is only one direction this pandemic is going to go."
- Americas: Latin America overtakes the US and Canada to become the second worst hit area on the planet in terms of deaths, nearing 145,000 as Mexico overtakes Italy. Only Europe has had more deaths to date with over 200,000.
- US: Country hits 3.3 million infections as Whitehouse riles against public health advice.
- France: 8 billion Euros of pay rises agreed for Nurses and Careworkers, stating it is recognition for all those who have been on the front line of the fight against the virus.
- Ireland: Face coverings on public transport mandatory from today with penalties for noncompliance being up to 2,500 euro fine and 6 months in prison.
- World: A group of the 83 richest people in the world have called on Governments to immediately and for the foreseeable future tax them more to help pay for the economic recovery following the pandemic.
- World: It took 3 months to reach the first million infections - the latest million, just 5 days.
- UK: Mixed face mask messages continue from the government following yesterdays "common sense" comments - It has now been insisted that no, people really should be wearing face masks in shops, and that it will be decided if enforcement is needed "in a couple of days" - because why do today what can be put off until tomorrow. Or the day after that. Or next month. Or when the confirmed cases start to rise again.
- UK: Cornish pub owner installs electric fence in front of bar to ensure social distancing is adhered to.
- World: World Heath Organization states that too many countries are still going in the wrong direction and unless drastic action is taken pandemic will only get worse and criticizes mixed messages from leaders. "If the basics aren't followed there is only one direction this pandemic is going to go."
- Americas: Latin America overtakes the US and Canada to become the second worst hit area on the planet in terms of deaths, nearing 145,000 as Mexico overtakes Italy. Only Europe has had more deaths to date with over 200,000.
- US: Country hits 3.3 million infections as Whitehouse riles against public health advice.
- France: 8 billion Euros of pay rises agreed for Nurses and Careworkers, stating it is recognition for all those who have been on the front line of the fight against the virus.
- Ireland: Face coverings on public transport mandatory from today with penalties for noncompliance being up to 2,500 euro fine and 6 months in prison.
- World: A group of the 83 richest people in the world have called on Governments to immediately and for the foreseeable future tax them more to help pay for the economic recovery following the pandemic.
That would be interesting - Apparently the UK bases its early response on modeling made on viral pneumonia figures, hence all the complacency and just letting it run away with itself so those original numbers compared to what's happened here would be an interesting case study indeed.
Not so long ago we'd had a million cases in 7 days (can't find the post but it's in the Catharsis Corner in here somewhere) so when the WHO says it's still picking up the pace they aren't kidding, and the more active cases, the faster it spreads.
I'm sure theres a simple piece to this puzzle that hasnt been found or reported on yet, but its an interesting story.
Mystery as Argentine sailors infected with virus after 35 days at sea
Argentina is trying to solve a medical mystery after 57 sailors were infected with the coronavirus after 35 days at sea, despite the entire crew testing negative before leaving port. The Echizen Maru fishing trawler returned to port after some of its crew began exhibiting symptoms typical of...news.yahoo.com
Ayyyy, big brain.
COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Tuesday 14th July:
- UK: In an unexpectedly swift announcement, face coverings to be made mandatory in shops with a £100 fine for noncompliance... due to start on the 27th of July in two weeks time. So close. So far. Why do today what can be put off for another fortnight. The announcement also revealed "Sales and retail staff have a 75% higher death rate for men and 60% higher death rate for women than the general public."
- US: Between February and May 5.4 million Americans lost their health insurance, many related to losing their jobs and a work-perk coverage.
- EU: The Bloc continues to struggle to reach an agreement on a combines COVID funding scheme.
- France: Baby infected with COVID-19 in the womb. according to reports the first confirmed case of this happening. Child has apparently made a good recovery.
- Singapore: Data shows economy contracted 40% for second quarter in a row becoming an official recession.
- US: Former success story Louisiana succumbs to COVID with spiking numbers indicating it is now a hotspot of infection.
- Scotland: Records no new cases for 6th day in a row with only two patents being treated in hospitals.
- Thailand: Having recorded no domestic cases for 50 days, country suspends all inbound flights after some soldiers from Egypt skipped quarantine and went shopping, only for one of them to test positive later.
- UK: In an unexpectedly swift announcement, face coverings to be made mandatory in shops with a £100 fine for noncompliance... due to start on the 27th of July in two weeks time. So close. So far. Why do today what can be put off for another fortnight. The announcement also revealed "Sales and retail staff have a 75% higher death rate for men and 60% higher death rate for women than the general public."
- US: Between February and May 5.4 million Americans lost their health insurance, many related to losing their jobs and a work-perk coverage.
- EU: The Bloc continues to struggle to reach an agreement on a combines COVID funding scheme.
- France: Baby infected with COVID-19 in the womb. according to reports the first confirmed case of this happening. Child has apparently made a good recovery.
- Singapore: Data shows economy contracted 40% for second quarter in a row becoming an official recession.
- US: Former success story Louisiana succumbs to COVID with spiking numbers indicating it is now a hotspot of infection.
- Scotland: Records no new cases for 6th day in a row with only two patents being treated in hospitals.
- Thailand: Having recorded no domestic cases for 50 days, country suspends all inbound flights after some soldiers from Egypt skipped quarantine and went shopping, only for one of them to test positive later.
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News just in: Squirrel tests positive for bubonic plague in Colorado.
eu.usatoday.com
Damn 2020, leave some surprises for 2021!
Colorado squirrel tests positive for bubonic plague, health officials say
The rodent was found in\u00a0Morrison, a town outside of Denver in\u00a0Jefferson County. Health officials said it was the first case of plague in the county.
eu.usatoday.com
Damn 2020, leave some surprises for 2021!
So everyone is still so focused on the new cases, but are failing to take into account that most places have increased their testing to include far more people not just ones who are going to a hospital and showing symptoms of the infection. What I think we are starting to see is just how widespread the infection truly has been this whole time and how far behind we were in trying to establish a quarantine.
So if we look at the report from CNBC which shows the daily reported new coronavirus cases in Florida it looks like a huge jump. But when you look at the new daily deaths is still pretty flat-lined over the past few months.
Looks terrible right?
But when compared to the reported deaths it's been not moving much.
Then when you look at trends like the percent of positive test results you see that the percent has steadily dropped like this one for Virginia, which continues to support the idea that the above trend in new cases is more likely caused by far more tests being administered then fully by more people getting sick than in the days prior.
So once again I strongly suggest people stop looking solely at the new cases as the variables that are driving the data are in flux and not taken into account and instead look to the reported death counts which should be a better gauge on overall trends. Because it's expected that the more people you test the more positive tests you will get back even if the total infection rate stays the same. If you kept the testing procedure the same then overall trends could be used but we clearly are opening up testing to more people and reducing the restrictions which change the sampling size and can no longer be used to compare against past data without some sort of correction which is not being done.
What is worse is the fallacy used against Sweden and their way of dealing with the virus. The arguments so far I have seen simply use the daily new cases which like I've said above is too variable to be a reliable metric against other countries in the EU. If they were being honest they would use total deaths since the start and compare countries to see if their strategy was effective, not effective, or didn't matter. Because as I have said prior the Sweedish method is expected to so a huge upfront cost than a steady drop off, while everyone else is going for a slow steady burn.
So if we look at the report from CNBC which shows the daily reported new coronavirus cases in Florida it looks like a huge jump. But when you look at the new daily deaths is still pretty flat-lined over the past few months.
Looks terrible right?
But when compared to the reported deaths it's been not moving much.
Then when you look at trends like the percent of positive test results you see that the percent has steadily dropped like this one for Virginia, which continues to support the idea that the above trend in new cases is more likely caused by far more tests being administered then fully by more people getting sick than in the days prior.
So once again I strongly suggest people stop looking solely at the new cases as the variables that are driving the data are in flux and not taken into account and instead look to the reported death counts which should be a better gauge on overall trends. Because it's expected that the more people you test the more positive tests you will get back even if the total infection rate stays the same. If you kept the testing procedure the same then overall trends could be used but we clearly are opening up testing to more people and reducing the restrictions which change the sampling size and can no longer be used to compare against past data without some sort of correction which is not being done.
What is worse is the fallacy used against Sweden and their way of dealing with the virus. The arguments so far I have seen simply use the daily new cases which like I've said above is too variable to be a reliable metric against other countries in the EU. If they were being honest they would use total deaths since the start and compare countries to see if their strategy was effective, not effective, or didn't matter. Because as I have said prior the Sweedish method is expected to so a huge upfront cost than a steady drop off, while everyone else is going for a slow steady burn.
I hear what you are saying, however a similar thing happened in the UK with only hospital cases being tested for months, then medical and key workers, and then not so long ago the general public with anyone who wants a test able to get one.
They upped daily testing to 100,000 a day, then 200,000 a day. The number of cases didn't double between 100k and 200k though. The number of new cases a day fell and thankfully continues to fall even with increased testing.
The rate of testing in the US is incredible, it is something to be celebrated, I'd almost call it biblical... you are right you will find more cases if you go looking by testing, however saying there are more cases just because there is more testing is misdirection. If the pandemic was going away the number of cases would be falling day on day, no matter how much testing there was. You could test all 330 million Americans this monday and then test all 330 million Americans the Monday after that and the raise in cases from one week to the next would not be because you'd carried out so many tests, it would be because of transmission from those who had it in the first week to those who then had it the next week.
The fact there are more cases to find with increased testing says the infection is still spreading. If it were going down in the face of more testing as it did in the UK, that would be a positive.
I don't believe I said more testing explains the rise I tried to be clear in that the daily cases are a terrible gauge to use because the input variables are changing and it's impossible to know trends from. We are unable to tell how many of the infected counted is just because we are using bigger nets and how many are infected because the overall trends are going up or down. So the daily infected trend is worthless and most are using it to be misleading for their own agenda.
I think I get what you are saying (I think) and yes I agree with the long term trends thing - when the UK was only testing cases in hospital the positive number to tests conducted number was ridiculously high because they were only testing people who were obviously sick with COVID-19. Long term trends I think you are right the metrics have changed but short term day-to-day I don't think the daily numbers are worthless, if positives keep coming back higher than the day before there are physically more cases day-to-day.
I still stand by my example of the expiriance in the UK where more testing still saw cases going down, not up. Now the UK government is concealing the number of tests conducted a day, only releasing the number of positives a day... I feel either they are getting so low it may give citizens a false sense of security if we saw them, or they are spiking back up so have been put behind closed doors to give the powers that be a time buffer to formulate a response before the positive tests come back and the deaths start climbing again.
About these school opening planned for the states, if only there was some way we can see how opening schools up too early could affect us...
I would be very concerned if anyone concealed any part of the numbers be it the number of infecting the number of tests administered, testing locations, etc. It's very easy for one to manipulate the testing data by selectively testing only specific locations where a known hotspot or cold spot, ramping up or down the number of tests administered. Let's take a thought experiment with selective testing. Let's say I take the current temperature around Cedar Rapids, IA at 5 stations during the day over a week, and then say this is the average temperature trend of the USA. I then add 5 stations in Phoenix, AZ. From the data collected, I could show a significant spike in average temperature. The reverse could be done by say by adding 5 stations around Anchorage AK, and forcing the weekly trend to a lower average temperature.
What I am attempting to show us that the way tests are administered does not allow for a good set of conclusions. When you cannot sample everyone the next best thing to do is a random sampling across a wide area to reduce the chances of localized hotspots/coldspots creating inaccurate samples. It is why initially in the USA we were seeing a high positive infection leading to death because the only ones getting tested were people being admitted to the hospital for severe breathing issues. It doesn't tell us how many are currently infected and it doesn't tell us the mortality rate.
As for your conclusion of if more tests come back positive day-to-day then there must be an increase in infection rate. Let's take 10000 people with 1000 infected so an infection rate of 10%. Of those 10000 people, we only tested 20 of them. 5 came back positive 15 were not infected so an infection rate of 25%. The next day we were able to test 30 of them, 6 came back infected so an infection rate of 20%. We are showing an upward trend on the day-to-day while a downward trend on the percent of the population infected while the true infection rate is staying at 10%.
Yep, when the information was put on a temporary pause and then flat-out dumped with an excuse of "well, it wasn't very reliable anyway because X" pretty much everyone who was paying attention then asked "Then y u no make reliable by fixing X?" with no reply. It was one of the things the government made a tangible numbers target "We'll test 100k a day by the end of April" without pausing to wonder if there were going to be 100k requests for tests a day - the finish line was passed in a blazing fudge of the figures on the 30th of April. They learned their lesson for 200k by saying they were aiming for capacity but it seems to be something they are now frightened of sharing like it's kryptonite or something. As has been mentioned so many times on this thread, it always seems like the politicisation of the crisis takes precedence over making the bad bad go bye bye. The [CONCERN] is real.
Thanks for sharing your view of the information and your angle on if more people are tested you will find more cases and that there is likely to be bias if you cannot test 100% of the people as it may be no more than chance that you do or do not catch a COVID case. I definitely see your point on the long term trends and very much agree, even in the UK the test methods and metrics have changed too many times over the months to make that reliable, however for short term day-to-day I still don't think the upward trend is invalid for one simple reason:
Those being tested are not a random sample, they are generally symptomatic or are key-workers in places they are more likely to be exposed to the contagion (unless the US has started a rolling screening program of the whole population I have not heared about). To me this means no, the pool of tests is, for the majority of cases, not being taken from a random selection of individuals which includes a certain percent of infected cases, it is being taken from those sick with symptoms of COVID or from those being regularly checked because they are at higher risk of contracting it due to their front-line-services jobs where they are more likely to come in to contact with the infection via those sick or whom are asymptomatic spreaders.
With the above observation I suggest the looking-glass is pointed in a focused direction with these tests rather than it being a random sample where you may or may not pick up an case by chance, and that as such it is more of reflection of what is happening on the ground in the here-and-now than the "Test more find more" viewpoint suggests. By looking where it is likely to find Coronavirus if it is present, those sick with symptoms or those likely to contract it due to their proximity to people, it weighs the scale from pure blind luck in finding a case to something nearer to a reflection of current events.
I would like to thank you again for your patience in helping me to understand your angle, I have found this very enlightening and would not have been able to word the above rational response if it were not for your considered and calm explanations. I would love to hear your thoughts to my above point, I'm sure there is a hole in it somewhere
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Radegast74
Space Marshal
Well, just when you thought it couldn't get any weirder:
www.cnn.com
Coronavirus hospital data will now be sent to Trump administration instead of CDC
Hospital data on coronavirus patients will now be rerouted to the Trump administration instead of first being sent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Health and Human Services confirmed to CNN on Tuesday.
www.cnn.com
Why is this a big deal? Further down the article:
I wish they would have worded it differently as the CDC is a division of HHS which has always been a part of the US presidential administration. So it's not like its being pulled into a different government-controlled group. But you are right @Radegast74 the data no matter if it's with the CDC directly or its parent group HHS should still be made public.
The issue with a nonrandom sampling is that it is impossible to know the margin of error within the study group. While it does show a trend of your ability to find infected pockets within a general population it does nothing to show the true infection R0.
This is why any study performed for scientific research attempts to the best of their ability to collected as big of a random sampling as is possible.
Yep, when the information was put on a temporary pause and then flat-out dumped with an excuse of "well, it wasn't very reliable anyway because X" pretty much everyone who was paying attention then asked "Then y u no make reliable by fixing X?" with no reply. It was one of the things the government made a tangible numbers target "We'll test 100k a day by the end of April" without pausing to wonder if there were going to be 100k requests for tests a day - the finish line was passed in a blazing fudge of the figures on the 30th of April. They learned their lesson for 200k by saying they were aiming for capacity but it seems to be something they are now frightened of sharing like it's kryptonite or something. As has been mentioned so many times on this thread, it always seems like the politicisation of the crisis takes precedence over making the bad bad go bye bye. The [CONCERN] is real.
Thanks for sharing your view of the information and your angle on if more people are tested you will find more cases and that there is likely to be bias if you cannot test 100% of the people as it may be no more than chance that you do or do not catch a COVID case. I definitely see your point on the long term trends and very much agree, even in the UK the test methods and metrics have changed too many times over the months to make that reliable, however for short term day-to-day I still don't think the upward trend is invalid for one simple reason:
Those being tested are not a random sample, they are generally symptomatic or are key-workers in places they are more likely to be exposed to the contagion (unless the US has started a rolling screening program of the whole population I have not heared about). To me this means no, the pool of tests is, for the majority of cases, not being taken from a random selection of individuals which includes a certain percent of infected cases, it is being taken from those sick with symptoms of COVID or from those being regularly checked because they are at higher risk of contracting it due to their front-line-services jobs where they are more likely to come in to contact with the infection via those sick or whom are asymptomatic spreaders.
With the above observation I suggest the looking-glass is pointed in a focused direction with these tests rather than it being a random sample where you may or may not pick up an case by chance, and that as such it is more of reflection of what is happening on the ground in the here-and-now than the "Test more find more" viewpoint suggests. By looking where it is likely to find Coronavirus if it is present, those sick with symptoms or those likely to contract it due to their proximity to people, it weighs the scale from pure blind luck in finding a case to something nearer to a reflection of current events.
I would like to thank you again for your patience in helping me to understand your angle, I have found this very enlightening and would not have been able to word the above rational response if it were not for your considered and calm explanations. I would love to hear your thoughts to my above point, I'm sure there is a hole in it somewhere
The issue with a nonrandom sampling is that it is impossible to know the margin of error within the study group. While it does show a trend of your ability to find infected pockets within a general population it does nothing to show the true infection R0.
This is why any study performed for scientific research attempts to the best of their ability to collected as big of a random sampling as is possible.
Random and non-random sampling
Take a look at the two main sampling methods: random sampling and non-random sampling. Second of posts series on sampling.
www.netquest.com
COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Wednesday 15th July:
- UK: Deaths pass 45k confirmed, 55k with COVID on the death certificate and 64k over average.
- US: Oklahoma governor is the first to publicly announce they have tested positive for COVID-19. Has previously called for no restrictions and no face masks. Reported as feeling a "bit achey".
- US: Walmart and Starbucks announce mandatory masks in all stores across America.
- Iran: Country loses 140 health workers as they perish to COVID, reducing the countries healthcare resource as cases surge.
- World: Pandemic effects vaccination rate for children across the globe leaving them susceptible to other conditions.
- UK: When questioned on the preparation for a second winter wave, Prime Minister indicates he has heared of the report indicating a possible worst case scenario of 120,000 deaths, but has not as yet got round to reading it.
- Ireland: Country delays reopening pubs as cases spike.
- Bulgaria: 35% of people who lost their jobs since march due to lockdown have been able to reclaim their old jobs already.
- US: Vaccine hopes as treatment moves in to final stage of human trials.
- UK: Deaths pass 45k confirmed, 55k with COVID on the death certificate and 64k over average.
- US: Oklahoma governor is the first to publicly announce they have tested positive for COVID-19. Has previously called for no restrictions and no face masks. Reported as feeling a "bit achey".
- US: Walmart and Starbucks announce mandatory masks in all stores across America.
- Iran: Country loses 140 health workers as they perish to COVID, reducing the countries healthcare resource as cases surge.
- World: Pandemic effects vaccination rate for children across the globe leaving them susceptible to other conditions.
- UK: When questioned on the preparation for a second winter wave, Prime Minister indicates he has heared of the report indicating a possible worst case scenario of 120,000 deaths, but has not as yet got round to reading it.
- Ireland: Country delays reopening pubs as cases spike.
- Bulgaria: 35% of people who lost their jobs since march due to lockdown have been able to reclaim their old jobs already.
- US: Vaccine hopes as treatment moves in to final stage of human trials.
I've been telling everyone I know to save every little cent they can. The system is in a cascading failure and we have yet to see the true scale of it all.
Edit: Also, if you get a chance, type in something along the lines of "food bank" or "food bank lines" into twitter search. It's not like any of this has gotten better.
Edit: Also, if you get a chance, type in something along the lines of "food bank" or "food bank lines" into twitter search. It's not like any of this has gotten better.