Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

ColdDog

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Bambooza

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Many thanks, appreciate it. That exaplains why I thought it was 50%, it's the average.

I suppose technically we were both right but both wrong too. :like:
Ebola is very deadly, if not for its low transference rate it could have been on the same scales of plagues of old. All it needs to do is mutate a little more up its R0 and you'll see people wearing full hazmat suits with out any arguments.
 

Vavrik

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Many thanks, appreciate it. That exaplains why I thought it was 50%, it's the average.

I suppose technically we were both right but both wrong too. :like:
It's 3 variants. Ebola, Marburg virus disease (where the 90% number comes from) and Lassa Fever. The last one is seasonal, like the flu but with a so far 15% fatality rate. It is not a pandemic, but as @Bambooza said, one variant could do it. We just don't know.

There are more potential threats than just Ebola and it's variants. But COVID is already more than enough for most people, and most Governments - and it's just a warning shot.
 

ColdDog

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There are more potential threats than just Ebola and it's variants. But COVID is already more than enough for most people, and most Governments - and it's just a warning shot.
Totally agree. A weaponized variant of any virus is our worst nightmare because of plausible deniability - governments, terrorist's, psycho-killers could release it and 8-10 days later we'd find out the hardway. COVID-19 is bad, I am just saying thank our lucky stars that other things have not be released. Today the human genome has been mapped, our dna data is online, really smart people can do really bad things (Ted Kaczynski aka unibomber with an IQ clocked at 167).
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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It's 3 variants. Ebola, Marburg virus disease (where the 90% number comes from) and Lassa Fever. The last one is seasonal, like the flu but with a so far 15% fatality rate. It is not a pandemic, but as @Bambooza said, one variant could do it. We just don't know.

There are more potential threats than just Ebola and it's variants. But COVID is already more than enough for most people, and most Governments - and it's just a warning shot.
Many thanks for the information on the strains, I had no idea this has been excellent to learn about. :like:

Here you go... its a pretty easy google.

View attachment 18868
Thanks @ColdDog, as above with Vavriks kind help on the details, this is very interesting - I had no idea there was such a wide ranging a fatality rate based on factors such as variant with Ebola.

I did a bit of further Googling as you suggested, and on COVID-19 too. I can see depending on the mutation variant and circumstances of the group it is infecting, COVID it appears to have a maximum fatality rate of 30%, an average of 4% and a minimum of about 0.03%. Your screenshot shows Ebola is 22/25% in certain circumstances, so it is facinating to see with a maximum of 30% COVID-19 is more deadly than Ebola in some circumstances.

I note you used the highest fatality rate for Ebola in your previous post, it is not clear in the post if you were you referring to the specific 90% strain of Ebola, I assume you were? Do you think we would we be better served using the maximum fatality rate for COVID? No one things about Ebola and comes to the conclusion "Oh, it's okay, it's only a 25% fatality rate i'll just nip down the bar without my mask on, the odds are pretty well in my favor"... should we be looking at the pandemic in the same way to ensure people are aware of the severity of it in specific circumstances?
 
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ColdDog

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Do you think we would we be better served using the maximum fatality rate for COVID?
Give me a drunk thumbs up on this, but I will say it is an example. Things could be 1000x worse, so lets deal with this rationally. Every loss of life is regrettable but the bottom line is that it could be much worse. We are running a scale between .001 mortality to 100%. Weapons of the future will be this... not nukes... so gear up. That is why I am so pissed at WHO, because the world should have 0 tolerance for any county who either deploys a bio weapon or hides an outbreak. Otherwise this will become common place to manipulate economies via shut downs and sow unrest.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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Give me a drunk thumbs up on this, but I will say it is an example. Things could be 1000x worse, so lets deal with this rationally. Every loss of life is regrettable but the bottom line is that it could be much worse. We are running a scale between .001 mortality to 100%. Weapons of the future will be this... not nukes... so gear up. That is why I am so pissed at WHO, because the world should have 0 tolerance for any county who either deploys a bio weapon or hides an outbreak. Otherwise this will become common place to manipulate economies via shut downs and sow unrest.
A drunk thumbs up, as requested, thus supplied.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Thursday 1st of October:

- World: 34,048,240 confirmed cases and 1,015,429 confirmed deaths.

- World: Passes 34 million cases, we passed 33 million cases on Monday, so that's 1 million cases in the last 3/4 days.

- Germany: The Max Planck Institute links a "Neanderthal Gene" with a higher risk of severe COVID infection "The probability that humans who inherited this gene variation have to be put on a ventilator when they contract the novel coronavrius Sars-CoV-2 is three times higher"

- Sweden: Sees highest new daily infection rate since June.

- Italy: Sees highest new daily infection rate since April.

- United Arab Emirates: Reports highest daily cases on record.

- Spain: Madrids hospitals issue a warning that their critical care wards are starting to overflow. The infection rate is 735 people for every 100,000 which is far and away the highest per capita in Europe.

- UK: Another Thursday, another raft of countries added to the Quarantine travel list, this time Poland and Turkey. Yes, you guessed it, travelers have until 4am on Saturday to return or face 14 days quarantine.

- Greece: Students protest for more safety measures to reduce COVID transmission in schools. Clashes occur after some protesters hurl petrol bombs, police respond with tear gas.

- Canada: Police uncover long term illegal gambling racket which profited and scaled up vastly in the absence of casinos closed during lockdown. $1m in cash, $1.5m worth of alcohol and 11 guns were seized, with 29 people arrested.

- UK: Head of Portsmouth City council warns government 30% of COVID tests on care home staff were not returned with a prognosis. Concerns are high the testing system is still not up to the task. "A 30% failure rate in sending back test results is just not good enough."

- Switzerland: Government to permit gatherings of up to 1000 people as restrictions eased.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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It is interesting to see people's attention spans moving on from this virus and in someways it's becoming just part of everyday life.
I fully expect it to become, eventually - hopefully because we have been able to find a reliable treatment which contracting it results in a course of medicine and bed rest. The bubonic plague used to wipe out whole villages, now it's put down with a course of antibiotics and is rarely heared about.

Fingers are crossed for the future, it's looking hopeful :)
 
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Vavrik

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I fully expect it to become, eventually - hopefully because we have been able to find a reliable treatment which contracting it results in a course of medicine and bed rest. The bubonic plague used to wipe out whole villages, now it's put down with a course of antibiotics and is rarely heared about.

Fingers are crossed for the future, it's looking hopeful :)
AND a vaccine that works, so you never actually get it, but gain the immunity as if you did. Don't hold your breath for that though, it's going to take a while to get it right no matter what a politician thinks, wants, desires, expresses, or tries to make happen faster.

That is why wearing a mask and social distancing are still good ideas.
 

Radegast74

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AND a vaccine that works, so you never actually get it, but gain the immunity as if you did. Don't hold your breath for that though, it's going to take a while to get it right no matter what a politician thinks, wants, desires, expresses, or tries to make happen faster.

That is why wearing a mask and social distancing are still good ideas.
yeah, it's October! Where's my vaccine? LMAO

BTW, if anybody wants to know what China's vaccination plan is, their plan is...to not vaccinate everybody. According to them, since they nipped it in the bud, and it isn't really present in their population, they don't need to vaccinate everybody, just frontline health care workers and border guards. Theoretically & practically, that is entirely true, but, pretty ballsy, I'd say.

I was going to say we won't know for a while if their plan will work, but it appears that we may have an opportunity, sooner rather than later, to see how it plays out. Apparently Oct 1 is a big holiday there, lots of travel...maybe in 2-3 weeks we can see how that played out.
 
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Vavrik

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I was going to say we won't know for a while if their plan will work, but it appears that we may have an opportunity, sooner rather than later, to see how it plays out. Apparently Oct 1 is a big holiday there, lots of travel...maybe in 2-3 weeks we can see how that played out.
I hope they can pull it off, not for our sake but for theirs.

and theirs. Don't wish this on anyone.

Best wishes to him and his staff member for a speedy recovery.
His wife. "FLOTUS" is First Lady of the United States.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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I hope they can pull it off, not for our sake but for theirs.


and theirs. Don't wish this on anyone.


His wife. "FLOTUS" is First Lady of the United States.
Oh, grief! Thanks for the info, I'm sorry about that - I read an article and it was about someone called Hope Hicks so I thought FLOTUS was their job title abbreviated, obviously not, apologies!

Of course best wishes to Melania, and the rest of the Trump household too, to get through this as quickly, comfortably and safely as possible.
 
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Vavrik

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Oh, grief! Thanks for the info, I'm sorry about that - I read an article and it was about someone called Hope Hicks so I thought FLOTUS was their job abbreviated, obviously not, apologies!

Of course best wishes to Melania, and the rest of the Trump household too, to get through this as quickly, comfortably and safely as possible.
Indeed! But I'm not American, I have the same Queen as you. I'm just from a little colder spot, and I married a Texan who told me one day that she wanted to avoid another car getting literally lost in the snow on the driveway.... for 2 weeks. So here we are in Texas within 5 miles of the Gulf of Mexico, 21 feet above sea level, waiting for the next hurricane. I shake my head every time I think about it. But winter is nice, it lasts either 3 days or 2 weeks. Except they close the schools if a snowflake is in the forecast. That part is annoying.
 
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