Indeed, a discussion we have had many times along this thread. Short term(?) economic gain or long term survival of the vulnerable in the population - but right now it looks like Europe has failed on both counts.
Halfway through... are you joking... 8 months in. The black death, came back on and off for almost 800 years. I'm 99.9% positive this will be around for decades of not centuries... so buckle up buttercup.
The point is that we get numbers down to a point where we can contact trace effectively and isolate the infected. I think you're approaching this as if the end of uncontrolled spread is inevitable and that's not accurate. AU, Singapore, and NZ have shown that.
The keyword you use is "Controlled"... it is a virus, you may think its controlled but that is a false sense of security. The only way to escape this virus is to get on the next spaceship to Mars. A virus as infectious as this, you may be able to stop people from working, going outside, etc... but someone has to pay the bills for your country. First to suffer will be the poor because social services are normally the first to get hurt. Print money... that is great... but that has limitations too such as inflation or deflation.
We’ve done that here in Vic and life is getting back to normalcy. Most of Australia has been open for months because testing rates are high, contact tracing is effective, and people are wearing masks.
Exactly! Couple of things....
So, 111 day lockdown is "normal"? If you accept that I worry for your countries future, because this will not be your last lockdown living under that mentality. We know who gets attacked (we have a lot of data - mere 8 months worth - but the jury is still out)... we have therapeutics now that seem to be saving people... but not a vaccine. The best we can do right now, is lower the death rate, because otherwise, you're playing whack-a-mole. Until people realize every shutdown of major economic center, is a shut down of the country - especially when there are only two major centers in your country - Melbourne and Sydney.
This is a value judgement, not data.
This is demonstrably false.
I understand... war... and I think we are in a war, loss (human life and economic troubles) are part of it, and I am sorry you see it as something you can control. Keep hoping but hope is not a strategy and will not give you any comfort other than a feeling. Black Death was an example of that and nearly 800 years later it still exists. This is a battle, choose your poison because all outcomes suck. You can keep telling yourself it is ok, but its not. Melbourne is going to get hit again regardless. How Australia deals with it is up to them. You can take this like an adult or you can take it like a child with the government as your parent.
I think we have a fundamental opposition in how we approach this and that could well be cultural.
I am not trying to be condescending here... I am simply saying this virus will not go away and to act like "you're" in "control" of anything is a fantasy. Death rate is what matters... if we can save lives with a therapeutic then that is a win, because you're not going to control this virus - too many unknowns and Australia is just one of many countries in this world.
No jokes chum, although you may have given up reading that paragraph after the first three words:
That's not false, its a truism. Humanity has no more control over what this virus does than any other virus - I suppose we can no more expect COVID-19 to bugger off than we can expect the common cold to do one. If that's your point - you've made it.
That's interesting...from what we know about other coronaviruses (as well as the little we know about COVID-19, specifically) it will likely get worse in the winter. The mechanism of action seems to be a combination of a) the virus getting worse or spreading more effectively in cold, dry conditions (both indoor & outdoor), b) people interacting more closely because they are indoors because of the cold, and potentially c) nasal mucus membranes being drier and more vulnerable to the virus.
www.nature.com
In the UK we have been asked not to go to the A&E (uk version of the ER i think?) if we had symptoms as it would just spread it around to vulnerable people who may be there. As everyone knows no one can follow simple rules, numbers of attendance to hospital A&E's across the country plummeted, as people who might have gone there but were not really in an emergency situation are staying away.That's interesting...from what we know about other coronaviruses (as well as the little we know about COVID-19, specifically) it will likely get worse in the winter. The mechanism of action seems to be a combination of a) the virus getting worse or spreading more effectively in cold, dry conditions (both indoor & outdoor), b) people interacting more closely because they are indoors because of the cold, and potentially c) nasal mucus membranes being drier and more vulnerable to the virus.
Florida, being warmer and humid, doesn't really tick all the boxes above (i.e., sunnier, warmer, more humid), but other areas in the country do meet those criteria and are having a much harder time.
As winter approaches, we have three really critical events for the virus spreading: Thanksgiving, Christmas, and then New Years, when people will be gathering in very close proximity and likely relaxing prevention measures. I would be curious about how Florida will be doing sometime around the week of Jan 14-21st.
TL;DR: let us know how the ER folks are doing sometime in mid-late January!
Why COVID outbreaks look set to worsen this winter
It’s too soon to say whether COVID is seasonal like the flu — but where clusters aren’t under control, infections will continue to swell.
