Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

ColdDog

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Cool stuff, and I think you have answered your own earlier question:
Huh... the discussion was Melbourne came out of a 111 day lockdown... with the Aussie GDP plummeting. Point is, we do not not know if the benefits out weigh the damage to the economy and mental health. Poverty can be worse than this disease by far.

US GDP grew 33% while the EU GDP fell. With all things being equal, why did this happen? Could it be the brilliant lockdown strategy of the EU.

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NaffNaffBobFace

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Huh... the discussion was Melbourne came out of a 111 day lockdown... with the Aussie GDP plummeting. Point is, we do not not know if the benefits out weigh the damage to the economy and mental health. Poverty can be worse than this disease by far.

US GDP grew 33% while the EU GDP fell. With all things being equal, why did this happen? Could it be the brilliant lockdown strategy of the EU.

View attachment 19085
Indeed, a discussion we have had many times along this thread. Short term(?) economic gain or long term survival of the vulnerable in the population - but right now it looks like Europe has failed on both counts.

Again, it's one of those things that looking at it half way through will not give the full story. The book has yet to reveal all it's chapters, and alas for all we know we may still only be at the beginning.
 

ColdDog

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Again, it's one of those things that looking at it half way through will not give the full story. The book has yet to reveal all it's chapters, and alas for all we know we may still only be at the beginning.
Halfway through... are you joking... 8 months in. The black death, came back on and off for almost 800 years. I'm 99.9% positive this will be around for decades of not centuries... so buckle up buttercup.

Plague
Plague—or the “Black Death” as it was referred to in the Middle Ages—is making a comeback in the developing world and in parts of the United States, including Idaho, California, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico. Plague is usually spread by infected rat fleas and can manifest in one of three forms: bubonic (lymph node infection), pneumonic (lung infection), or septicemic (blood infection). People with pneumonic plague can spread the disease through respiratory droplets. Plague can be deadly and requires treatment with antibiotics, such as streptomycin, gentamicin, doxycycline, or ciprofloxacin, as well as oxygen, intravenous fluids, and respiratory support.

 

August

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I think you are making the wrong assumption... the assumption you can control it... another outbreak is sure to happen, then what? Poverty and misery has a cost too.
The point is that we get numbers down to a point where we can contact trace effectively and isolate the infected. I think you're approaching this as if the end of uncontrolled spread is inevitable and that's not accurate. AU, Singapore, and NZ have shown that.
 
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ColdDog

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The point is that we get numbers down to a point where we can contact trace effectively and isolate the infected. I think you're approaching this as if the end of uncontrolled spread is inevitable and that's not accurate. AU, Singapore, and NZ have shown that.
The keyword you use is "Controlled"... it is a virus, you may think its controlled but that is a false sense of security. The only way to escape this virus is to get on the next spaceship to Mars. A virus as infectious as this, you may be able to stop people from working, going outside, etc... but someone has to pay the bills for your country. First to suffer will be the poor because social services are normally the first to get hurt. Print money... that is great... but that has limitations too such as inflation or deflation.

Bottom line - this virus is not going away and a false sense of security and control is worse than acknowledging this virus for what it is - an extremely contagious bug that prays on the old and weak people. You can hide... not produce food, not go to school, not go to work, not build infrastructure, not repair infrastructure, let your GDP continue to fall. Eventually, your country will no longer be as prestigious as it was, or - you can find a happy medium, accept some risk, and live your life.
 

August

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The keyword you use is "Controlled"... it is a virus, you may think its controlled but that is a false sense of security. The only way to escape this virus is to get on the next spaceship to Mars. A virus as infectious as this, you may be able to stop people from working, going outside, etc... but someone has to pay the bills for your country. First to suffer will be the poor because social services are normally the first to get hurt. Print money... that is great... but that has limitations too such as inflation or deflation.

Bottom line - this virus is not going away and a false sense of security and control is worse than acknowledging this virus for what it is - an extremely contagious bug that prays on the old and weak people. You can hide... not produce food, not go to school, not go to work, not build infrastructure, not repair infrastructure, let your GDP continue to fall. Eventually, your country will no longer be as prestigious as it was, or - you can find a happy medium, accept some risk, and live your life.
We’ve done that here in Vic and life is getting back to normalcy. Most of Australia has been open for months because testing rates are high, contact tracing is effective, and people are wearing masks.

living with the virus means jumping on outbreaks quickly so we don’t have exponential growth, and taking precautions. It’s not pretending it’s not a thing
 

Vavrik

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We’ve done that here in Vic and life is getting back to normalcy. Most of Australia has been open for months because testing rates are high, contact tracing is effective, and people are wearing masks.

living with the virus means jumping on outbreaks quickly so we don’t have exponential growth, and taking precautions. It’s not pretending it’s not a thing
Exactly! Couple of things....

Both New Zealand and Australia have already had the experience with do-overs. New Zealand is on their third go-round. The big difference is, they stamp on it hard, but it's not been 0 since the beginning. It is currently (yesterday) 0.121 per 100,000 in NZ, and 0.0468 in AU. Europe and North America are not doing so hot in comparison. Not even close.

Second thing is, we do not know about annual vaccines yet. It can go one of several directions, including lifetime or every 8 weeks, or it may not work at all.
 

ColdDog

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We’ve done that here in Vic and life is getting back to normalcy.
So, 111 day lockdown is "normal"? If you accept that I worry for your countries future, because this will not be your last lockdown living under that mentality. We know who gets attacked (we have a lot of data - mere 8 months worth - but the jury is still out)... we have therapeutics now that seem to be saving people... but not a vaccine. The best we can do right now, is lower the death rate, because otherwise, you're playing whack-a-mole. Until people realize every shutdown of major economic center, is a shut down of the country - especially when there are only two major centers in your country - Melbourne and Sydney.

Quick story... my sons school was locked down because we had a positive result on the test. So, we get this email, all kids are quarantined for 14 days. You know how hot under the collar CD is... I was pissed. Three days later they identified 13 kids that had been in contact with the infected one that only needed to be quarantined... my parents did not come over - no muy tai for my son, the house was shut down, total disfunction as you can imagine for those 3 days. If this is a new norm... panicking... is not the answer. The answer is, a measured targeted response like the second email I received saying only the 13 kids were quarantined. School resumed today.

This is how you piss off a population.

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August

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ColdDog

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This is demonstrably false.
I understand... war... and I think we are in a war, loss (human life and economic troubles) are part of it, and I am sorry you see it as something you can control. Keep hoping but hope is not a strategy and will not give you any comfort other than a feeling. Black Death was an example of that and nearly 800 years later it still exists. This is a battle, choose your poison because all outcomes suck. You can keep telling yourself it is ok, but its not. Melbourne is going to get hit again regardless. How Australia deals with it is up to them. You can take this like an adult or you can take it like a child with the government as your parent.

It is a virus... and we may think we win in the short term... but it will be here for years to come.
 

August

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You can take this like an adult or you can take it like a child with the government as your parent.
I think we have a fundamental opposition in how we approach this and that could well be cultural.

The government we elect as Australians, which is funded by our money, is primarily concerned for our public safety. There is an economic impact to this, we're very aware of how dire that is, but ultimately the government serves the public interest and we can always make more money.

The government doing their job isn't an example of "take it like a child with the government as your parent", but rather it is a recognition of a fundamental social contract.
 

ColdDog

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The government doing their job isn't an example of "take it like a child with the government as your parent", but rather it is a recognition of a fundamental social contract.
I am not trying to be condescending here... I am simply saying this virus will not go away and to act like "you're" in "control" of anything is a fantasy. Death rate is what matters... if we can save lives with a therapeutic then that is a win, because you're not going to control this virus - too many unknowns and Australia is just one of many countries in this world.

You can sit in your house, not go outside or eat... you'll be safe... but when you emerge you'll find everything around you has fallen apart. I am saying find the middle road, and learn to live with it because it is not going anywhere.

Like I said earlier...
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Halfway through... are you joking...
No jokes chum, although you may have given up reading that paragraph after the first three words:

Again, it's one of those things that looking at it half way through will not give the full story. The book has yet to reveal all it's chapters, and alas for all we know we may still only be at the beginning.

Have a jolly day.

 

NaffNaffBobFace

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I am simply saying this virus will not go away and to act like "you're" in "control" of anything
That's not false, its a truism. Humanity has no more control over what this virus does than any other virus - I suppose we can no more expect COVID-19 to bugger off than we can expect the common cold to do one. If that's your point - you've made it.

What we do have control over is our countries populations exposure to it through measures that have succeeded in multiple countries. It isn't impossible - it takes time and restrictions on the things that allow the virus to spread. That's where we have control.

Countries which choose to exercise that control, either through being places which exercise that control more regularly anyway, or bold countries which followed a course of extreme (and extremely effective) measures, have shown that once at a low level it can be contained and managed allowing the rest of the country to carry on as "normal".

One day I'm sure treatments for COVID will appear which like antibiotics made the plague which was once a death sentence survivable every single time.

It'll just take time. And time is money. Countries which choose to support their citizens while work cannot be done during restrictions are not throwing social support money down the drain, they are paying to keep their "normal" every day viable infrastructure in place until such time treatments are discovered.

You either pay in money or lives. One way or another, you're paying.
 

Radegast74

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I've had to go to the local ER a couple times over the past few months (my family is old) and every time I've been, it's been absolutely dead. This is an ER that has been either 1st or 2nd in ER visits in the country, I'll link it below. 75% of Florida's population lives within a 100 mile radius of that ER, it's where I did all of my paramedic and EMT hospital clinicals, so I'm familiar with how absolutely packed it usually is. I would also like to note, Florida was trailing 2nd behind California in overall cases. Talking to the nurses there, they say a lot of them had to start working part time because they just don't need as many staff. I asked about COVID patients, the nurse just said "not many but weve had a few". ER nurses don't stick around long so I didn't ask him 20 questions.

My sister recently tested positive, and within a few days got retested, and tested negative. Everyone else she's been around, mainly her boyfriend and his kids have been tested, and tested negative. False positive probably, but it's still odd. I might get tested to see what they say, but if I do have it, my 84 year old aunt is the only person I come in contact with, and she's fine, I'm fine. I have probably left the house less than 20 times since this all started. I did go to Las Vegas at the beginning of Sep with my sister, but we got back on the 8th of Sep and both haven't felt anything that would make us think we got sick. We wore masks everywhere we went, I brought nitril gloves and CaviWipes to sanitize my plane seat and our room. 5 weeks of incubation would be odd. She didn't tell me anything about the test, or if it tests for anti-bodies or anything. If I get tested I'll tell you about the process and what they check for.

Edit: My sister got tested with her boyfriend because he works next to a testing place.
That's interesting...from what we know about other coronaviruses (as well as the little we know about COVID-19, specifically) it will likely get worse in the winter. The mechanism of action seems to be a combination of a) the virus getting worse or spreading more effectively in cold, dry conditions (both indoor & outdoor), b) people interacting more closely because they are indoors because of the cold, and potentially c) nasal mucus membranes being drier and more vulnerable to the virus.

Florida, being warmer and humid, doesn't really tick all the boxes above (i.e., sunnier, warmer, more humid), but other areas in the country do meet those criteria and are having a much harder time.

As winter approaches, we have three really critical events for the virus spreading: Thanksgiving, Christmas, and then New Years, when people will be gathering in very close proximity and likely relaxing prevention measures. I would be curious about how Florida will be doing sometime around the week of Jan 14-21st.

TL;DR: let us know how the ER folks are doing sometime in mid-late January!

 

NaffNaffBobFace

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That's interesting...from what we know about other coronaviruses (as well as the little we know about COVID-19, specifically) it will likely get worse in the winter. The mechanism of action seems to be a combination of a) the virus getting worse or spreading more effectively in cold, dry conditions (both indoor & outdoor), b) people interacting more closely because they are indoors because of the cold, and potentially c) nasal mucus membranes being drier and more vulnerable to the virus.

Florida, being warmer and humid, doesn't really tick all the boxes above (i.e., sunnier, warmer, more humid), but other areas in the country do meet those criteria and are having a much harder time.

As winter approaches, we have three really critical events for the virus spreading: Thanksgiving, Christmas, and then New Years, when people will be gathering in very close proximity and likely relaxing prevention measures. I would be curious about how Florida will be doing sometime around the week of Jan 14-21st.

TL;DR: let us know how the ER folks are doing sometime in mid-late January!

In the UK we have been asked not to go to the A&E (uk version of the ER i think?) if we had symptoms as it would just spread it around to vulnerable people who may be there. As everyone knows no one can follow simple rules, numbers of attendance to hospital A&E's across the country plummeted, as people who might have gone there but were not really in an emergency situation are staying away.

The death rate from avoidable conditions which would have been picked up at any other time with a quick few hour visit to the local A&E has gone up too, the silver lining must always have its cloud.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Friday 30th of October:

- World: 45,341,053 confirmed cases and 1,184,875 confirmed deaths.

- World: Passes 45 million cases. We passed 44 million on Wednesday meaning a million more cases in the last 2/3 days.

- UK: Documents reveal COVID-19 is spreading through England faster than what the governments Advisory Committee considers is considered a "reasonable worst-case scenario" - by a factor of four. New daily cases stands at 24,405.

- Italy: Daily cases jump 4k, from 26k yesterday to 31k today.

- US: The States total confirmed cases passes 9 million on the same day it exceeds 91,000 new daily cases ,and approaches 1,000 deaths a day.

- Spain: Sees record high new daily cases.

- France: Returns to nationwide lockdown.

- Austria: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Scotland: Older school children in the worst effected areas to start wearing masks in schools, with all people in the building to wear them including staff and parents picking up and dropping off their children.

- Iceland: Introduces new restrictions to curb spike in cases.

- UK: Data from Office of National Statistics suggests there were 570,000 active COVID cases in the UK last week.
 
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