Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

It's a snowball effect. These things take time, but theyre happening.

You all know where I stand with this. I'm guided by intuition on this one, and my intuition rarely fails me. I can't take years of acquired wisdom and personal experience and articulate it all in a way that would explain why I feel the way I do.

Covid-19’s Economic Toll Will Be Deeper Than Expected, IMF Says. And the Recovery Slower.

International Monetary Fund economists said Wednesday that the global economy will contract 4.9% this year, versus an April estimate of 3%.

www.barrons.com

UN makes largest single appeal amid warnings of unprecedented hunger due to pandemic

The request for $10.3 billion is unprecedented.

abcnews.go.com

COVID-19 Linked Hunger Could Cause More Deaths Than The Disease Itself, New Report Finds

121 million more people could be pushed to the brink of starvation this year.

time.com

Shootings, Overdoses, Mental Crisis Rising In NJ Amid Pandemic

Gov. Phil Murphy said the conditions "could not be more challenging." Help is available.

patch.com

Deaths from heart disease, overdoses increased in Colorado during pandemic, data shows

More Coloradans died from heart disease, overdoses and other medical conditions than would be expected during the early months of the pandemic as total fatalities rose by an estimated 22% across th…

www.denverpost.com

Some Americans are lining up at food banks for the first time in their lives

As tens of millions of Americans have lost jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic, food banks across the country say they are facing an unprecedented surge in demand, comparable to a hurricane hitting the entire country at the same time.

news.yahoo.com

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Saturday 8th of August:

- US: Four people reported dead from consuming hand sanitizer which contained toxic methanol rather than ethanol, the only type of alcohol which is safe to consume. Recalls have been raised on several brands of sanitiser. Remember TESTies: Ethanol good (when enjoyed responsibly), Methanol and other types of alcohol bad.

- US: President Trump poised to sign executive order to push through plans on COVID relief as Whitehouse fails to reach agreement with Congress on measures.

- UK: 750,000 Randox COVID test kits recalled due to safety issue with the swabs, the government stating only that they were not up to standard and the risk was very low.

- Brazil: Deaths pass 100,000

- US: The Center for Disease Control and Prevention reports Hispanic and Black children far more likely to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19 than white children.

- France: Masks now mandatory in parts of Paris.

- UK: Town of Preston under tighter restrictions as city of Leeds looks at similar amid rising cases. R Number (transmission number) in UK now thought to be between 0.8 and 1, with the country walking a tightrope at best and a razors edge at worst with suggestions it could be higher in hotspots.

- Antarctica: Science expeditions to Antarctic severely curtailed due to pandemic.

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

Here's a great article, worth the read if this stuff interests you.

The Pandemic Depression

The COVID-19 pandemic will instigate a massive economic contraction. This situation should be called a “depression”—a pandemic depression.

www.foreignaffairs.com

"The historian Henry Adams once noted that politics is about the systematic organization of hatreds. Voters who have lost their jobs, have seen their businesses close, and have depleted their savings are angry. There is no guarantee that this anger will be channeled in a productive direction by the current political class—or by the ones to follow if the politicians in power are voted out. A tide of populist nationalism often rises when the economy ebbs, so mistrust among the global community is almost sure to increase. This will speed the decline of multilateralism and may create a vicious cycle by further lowering future economic prospects. That is precisely what happened in between the two world wars, when nationalism and beggar-thy-neighbor policies flourished. "

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from aroud the world from today Sunday 9th of August:

- New Zealand: 100 days without a local community transmitted virus case.

- US: COVID confirmed cases rise over 5 million.

- UK: Prime Minister announces reopening Schools is a Moral Duty, saying pubs, restaurants and shops would close before schools in the event of a second wave. It is unclear what the virus's moral stance on reopening schools is as it has yet to release an official comment.

- US: As expected President Trump signs executive order after talks on COVID, saying he was forced to after financial aid talks collapse.

- UK: Daily new Infections now back over 1000 cases for the first time since June.

- UK: Manchester Mayor says fix contact tracing system or close pubs again.

- India: Fire at a COVID facility kills at least 10. Seconds such fire in recent days.

- UK: Preston new lockdown message delivered to residents with the slogan "Don't kill Granny" to target significant rise in cases in the under 30's.

 

[ColdDog]

Pandemic depression, huh? The only people I see winning is the lawyers from feeding on the poor 30%. Business is good from my perspective. I would expect 30% of any developed country population to fall on hard times during a problem like this. 60%, i'd start to get concerned. Economies are not localized like they were in 1918, trade is still happening, stock market still looks good. Behaviors are changing slowly, normal to wear a mask... even in Laramie, WY. This is the new normal, businesses must adjust and if they do not they will not survive.

Good to see everyone and I hope everyone is having an awesome summer, I have been.

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

Pandemic depression, huh? The only people I see winning is the lawyers from feeding on the poor 30%. Business is good from my perspective. I would expect 30% of any developed country population to fall on hard times during a problem like this. 60%, i'd start to get concerned. Economies are not localized like they were in 1918, trade is still happening, stock market still looks good. Behaviors are changing slowly, normal to wear a mask... even in Laramie, WY. This is the new normal, businesses must adjust and if they do not they will not survive.

Good to see everyone and I hope everyone is having an awesome summer, I have been.

Glad to see you bud.

 

[Aramsolari]

Yeah. Summer's been swell. I'm currently typing this on my laptop chilling at a cabin on a tiny island in the Pacific Northwest. Nursing a bit of a sunburn from a day out paddle boarding.

People here definitely take it seriously though. Masks everywhere which is encouraging. Isolated community like this definitely can't afford to have an outbreak.

 

[AntiSqueaker]

Pandemic depression, huh? The only people I see winning is the lawyers from feeding on the poor 30%. Business is good from my perspective. I would expect 30% of any developed country population to fall on hard times during a problem like this. 60%, i'd start to get concerned. Economies are not localized like they were in 1918, trade is still happening, stock market still looks good. Behaviors are changing slowly, normal to wear a mask... even in Laramie, WY. This is the new normal, businesses must adjust and if they do not they will not survive.

Good to see everyone and I hope everyone is having an awesome summer, I have been.

Bro peak unemployment in the Great Depression was 24.9%

Thousands of small businesses are gone or will be gone shortly and will never come back. The ramifications of this are going to be felt for years to come and we in the US are only getting worse and worse.

"It hasn't happened to me yet!" thinks every person before they get it.

 

[Aramsolari]

Bro peak unemployment in the Great Depression was 24.9%

Thousands of small businesses are gone or will be gone shortly and will never come back. The ramifications of this are going to be felt for years to come and we in the US are only getting worse and worse.

"It hasn't happened to me yet!" thinks every person before they get it.

I also think it's not a great idea to gauge the health of an economy by how the markets are doing. There is definitely a disconnect between the the stock market and the day to day life of ordinary people.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Pandemic depression, huh? The only people I see winning is the lawyers from feeding on the poor 30%. Business is good from my perspective. I would expect 30% of any developed country population to fall on hard times during a problem like this. 60%, i'd start to get concerned. Economies are not localized like they were in 1918, trade is still happening, stock market still looks good. Behaviors are changing slowly, normal to wear a mask... even in Laramie, WY. This is the new normal, businesses must adjust and if they do not they will not survive.

Good to see everyone and I hope everyone is having an awesome summer, I have been.

Welcome back aboard, it just rumbles on doesn't it

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Monday 10th of August:

- UK: 15 year old admits committing the assault 23 year old Singapore student at the beginning of the pandemic, apparently executed while saying "we don't want your coronavirus in our country." He will be sentenced next month.

- Greece: Announces it is now in its second wave.

- US: Serena Williams announces she is to donate 4 million face masks to disadvantaged school children.

- Iran: Newspaper which published headline that official figures may be 5% of the actual numbers is closed down by authorities.

- Denmark: Health minister indicates the virus is "on its way back".

- US: Head of Californias Public Health Department quits after a glitch is revealed that delayed vital information which effected data used for making vital decisions on reopening business and schools.

- World: World Health Organization states it has received just 10% of the funding committed to it which is required to do its work in the COVID-19 crisis.

- UK: Report indicates 33% of firms already have plans to make layoffs before the end of the year.

 

[Bambooza]

I also think it's not a great idea to gauge the health of an economy by how the markets are doing. There is definitely a disconnect between the the stock market and the day to day life of ordinary people.

The issue with the stock market is that its no longer mostly driven by personal wealth but by fund managers whos only goal is to maximize quarterly growth until their luck runs out. So the US stock market buying habits are now a terrible indication of the overall health of anything, and in fact given how much of the stockmarket wealth is 401k's and pentions its going to have the same negitive decline that we will see with social security and has a powerful feedback loop when those funds are starting to be drawn down as the mean population age continues to climb.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today Tuesday 11th of August:

- World: 20 million cases now confirmed. We reached 19 million on August 6th so again it's been about 4/5 days to see the latest million.

- New Zealand: Reports first community transmission in over 100 days, Auckland immediately placed under tight lockdown with New Zealanders advised "Act as if you have Covid, and as though people around you have Covid".

- France: Prime Minister announces the country has been going in the wrong direction for the last two weeks with cases starting to spike, introduces further advice and restrictions.

- US: New cases in the last week drop 11.5% compared to the previous week, with a same time-span drop in deaths of 7%.

- Russia: Countries COVID vaccine ends clinical trials as a success, plans to begin vaccination of population proceed.

- World Health Organization: Advises it has not received enough information on Russian Vaccine to appraise it, and recommends further trials as the current one has lasted less than two months - apparently not long enough to discover if there are more complex side effects.

- World: Work on other vaccines continues apace, with 20 in trials across the world already.

- UK: Sexual health charity Terrence Higgins Trust releases advice on how to have intercourse while reducing the risk of contracting COVID-19, saying people need to find a way to "balance our need for sex and intimacy with the risks of the spread of Covid-19".

- US: Trump Administration working on draft regulations to bar Americans who are suspected of carrying COVID-19 from reentering the country if traveling back from abroad and deporting migrants suspected of the same. Stay home, kids.

 

[Aramsolari]

Russia jumping the gun here?

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

Russia jumping the gun here?

It's not entirely clear. They may have just done a shead-load of good work based off previous vaccines they may have built in the past and are using a lot of that prior data, standing on the shoulders of giants.

As long as it doesn't harm their population in the long run, it'd be no good if the vaccine works on the virus but also on the testicles and overies and sterilizes all the residents.

 

[Montoya]

Russia jumping the gun here?

Many countries are a lot less concerned with safety, I guess we will see soon!

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

It's not entirely clear. They may have just done a shead-load of good work based off previous vaccines they may have built in the past and are using a lot of that prior data, standing on the shoulders of giants.

As long as it doesn't harm their population in the long run, it'd be no good if the vaccine works on the virus but also on the testicles and overies and sterilizes all the residents.

Many countries are a lot less concerned with safety, I guess we will see soon!

How do you guys feel about an early vaccine that would obviously be missing years of trials / observation? Honestly, I mean I'll take a vaccine if they can convince me its safe, but I doubt they could in such a short time. Even if we had one next year I'd think loooong and hard about it. You're putting an unknown barely tested substance in your body and trusting those administering it to have your long term health interests in mind. From my understanding, you're pretty much injecting a form of the virus for your body to recognize and fight off, the rest of the details are unclear, but I do know human biochemistry is ridiculously complicated and anything unnatural entering your system like that is definitely a huge risk.

 

[Aramsolari]

How do you guys feel about an early vaccine that would obviously be missing years of trials / observation? Honestly, I mean I'll take a vaccine if they can convince me its safe, but I doubt they could in such a short time. Even if we had one next year I'd think loooong and hard about it. You're putting an unknown barely tested substance in your body and trusting those administering it to have your long term health interests in mind. From my understanding, you're pretty much injecting a form of the virus for your body to recognize and fight off, the rest of the details are unclear, but I do know human biochemistry is ridiculously complicated and anything unnatural entering your system like that is definitely a huge risk.

I wouldn't feel comfortable.

There's a reason why we have the likes of the FDA (Or Health Canada for us Canucks) to test, approve, and administer new vaccines. I strongly support the use of vaccines (I have zero patience for anti-vaxxers) but I also acknowledge that we need to be careful before we release a new one for public use. That's why I pay zero stock to certain individuals in government who promise that we'll have vaccines available by (insert date). It doesn't work that way. You really shouldn't rush vaccine development.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

How do you guys feel about an early vaccine that would obviously be missing years of trials / observation? Honestly, I mean I'll take a vaccine if they can convince me its safe, but I doubt they could in such a short time. Even if we had one next year I'd think loooong and hard about it. You're putting an unknown barely tested substance in your body and trusting those administering it to have your long term health interests in mind. From my understanding, you're pretty much injecting a form of the virus for your body to recognize and fight off, the rest of the details are unclear, but I do know human biochemistry is ridiculously complicated and anything unnatural entering your system like that is definitely a huge risk.

History is littered with medical blunders of all scales and types.

The Elixir Sulfanilamide disaster in 1937 which partly caused medical trials to be a thing in the first place.
Thalidomide birth defect crisis of the 50's and 60's which just seemed to be flat out bad luck.
Doctors being linked in to cigarettes claims that they were good for throat cancers, through the 30's into the early 60's due to clever yet baseless marketing and even lobbying of physicians.
The MMR autism scandal caused by bad science and an easily lead public in the 90's which lead to the anti-vaccination culture seen in some today.

Just a few off the top of my head. With 120 vaccines and treatments in the process of being created, there is no guarantee any of them will be 100% effective, and there is no guarantee any of them will be without side-effects, hence the trials. Although very quick, the trial duration for the majority will have been looked at and considered by the scientific community and agreed to the minimal duration being what it is, as a suitable amount of time for those 120 treatment to be tested in the human population. This is why the trials are in place and are running for a minimum duration as recommended by the world health organization. Once a treatment is found to be good (or good enough) from volunteer advanced medical trials it will also be studied by the WHO and likely by scientists and experts all over the world in peer review before being released to everyone.

We are a long way from 1937, a long way from the 50's and 60's and we are even a long way from the 90's.

Most of (if not all) of the vaccines and treatments being created are modifications of existing treatments which have already been proven to work or which were already years and years in deep development and trials stage. The promising Oxford University vaccine, for example, is a version of a MERs vaccine they had already been working on for 6 years already.

So when it is ready, I will be saying yes to a vaccine as my duty to look after not only myself but those around me.

I can only put my faith and trust in those who have been entrusted to the task of making it that they have done a thorough and proper job, and accept the amount of time and effort that has gone into developing it has been correct.

The medical lessons of history are learned and we move forward. It is a bold move by Russia to rush forward and I wish them luck, both short term and long term. we can only trust in those who are put in place to look after us. They may have developed a treatment off the back of an existing vaccine or method they already had, no one really knows, information is not forthcoming yet, and even if they have used something proven, there is no guarantee a COVID-19 version of that will be any more or less effective or come without unexpected effects - I truly hope this does not turn into another notable medical lesson but we can only wait and see... even if it does pay off (and I'm hoping it does) it will be logged in history as somewhat of a risky strategy.

Nothing is risk-free and if when I am given it they make a mistake, well that isn't my fault and they will have to then work on rectifying that mistake. My examples of blunders where people put their trust in physicians in the 30's, 50's, 60's, 90's are indeed notable, but bear in mind although those did effect hundreds of thousands, medical science has in the same time periods positively effected hundreds of millions.

 

[Jolly_Green_Giant]

History is littered with medical blunders of all scales and types.

The Elixir Sulfanilamide disaster in 1937 which partly caused medical trials to be a thing in the first place.
Thalidomide birth defect crisis of the 50's and 60's which just seemed to be flat out bad luck.
Doctors being linked in to cigarettes claims that they were good for throat cancers, through the 30's into the early 60's due to clever yet baseless marketing and even lobbying of physicians.
The MMR autism scandal caused by bad science and an easily lead public in the 90's which lead to the anti-vaccination culture seen in some today.

Just a few off the top of my head. With 120 vaccines and treatments in the process of being created, there is no guarantee any of them will be 100% effective, and there is no guarantee any of them will be without side-effects, hence the trials. Although very quick, the trial duration for the majority will have been looked at and considered by the scientific community and agreed to the minimal duration being what it is, as a suitable amount of time for those 120 treatment to be tested in the human population. This is why the trials are in place and are running for a minimum duration as recommended by the world health organization. Once a treatment is found to be good (or good enough) from volunteer advanced medical trials it will also be studied by the WHO and likely by scientists and experts all over the world in peer review before being released to everyone.

We are a long way from 1937, a long way from the 50's and 60's and we are even a long way from the 90's.

Most of (if not all) of the vaccines and treatments being created are modifications of existing treatments which have already been proven to work or which were already years and years in deep development and trials stage. The promising Oxford University vaccine, for example, is a version of a MERs vaccine they had already been working on for 6 years already.

So when it is ready, I will be saying yes to a vaccine as my duty to look after not only myself but those around me.

I can only put my faith and trust in those who have been entrusted to the task of making it that they have done a thorough and proper job, and accept the amount of time and effort that has gone into developing it has been correct.

The medical lessons of history are learned and we move forward. It is a bold move by Russia to rush forward and I wish them luck, both short term and long term. we can only trust in those who are put in place to look after us. They may have developed a treatment off the back of an existing vaccine or method they already had, no one really knows, information is not forthcoming yet, and even if they have used something proven, there is no guarantee a COVID-19 version of that will be any more or less effective or come without unexpected effects - I truly hope this does not turn into another notable medical lesson but we can only wait and see... even if it does pay off (and I'm hoping it does) it will be logged in history as somewhat of a risky strategy.

Nothing is risk-free and if when I am given it they make a mistake, well that isn't my fault and they will have to then work on rectifying that mistake. My examples of blunders where people put their trust in physicians in the 30's, 50's, 60's, 90's are indeed notable, but bear in mind although those did effect hundreds of thousands, medical science has in the same time periods positively effected hundreds of millions.

You do have a very good perspective on this, thats for sure. I mean i get the flu shot every year, and I don't think much of it other than "i hope it doesnt get me sick this time", because it does. God knows what the military actually vaccinated me with. I had a full set of vaccinations before i started grade school, a full set again when I started going to school to be an EMT, and another full set when I started working at the hospital. I never got the Anthrax / smallpox vaccines so at least theres that. I just feel soooooo uneasy about a new vaccine for this stuff even after understanding the several cocktails of vaccines ive already had.