Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Bambooza

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Read the article. Top line, immediately below the title.


That is the perspective of the entire article. There were some doubts expressed, however they were more along the lines of there are problems with some fabrics and the way people wear masks. The article also covers the expectations of what protection a mask provides. The goal of wearing a mask is to reduce the viral load, both of exhaled, but also of inhaled viral particles. Not to prevent transmission, but to reduce it. Hopefully to a level which your immune system can handle, but if not it can still reduce the impact of the virus. Fewer virions infecting you is better.

The assumption that they don't know the vectors by which this virus is spread is incorrect. They do. It's eyes, nose and mouth. The virus has other minor vectors, open wounds for example, but primarily it's eyes, nose and mouth. If you pull your mask off "because it's not comfortable", than you need to look into a different mask. We should also be protecting our eyes far more than we normally do. It turns out you can make an effective face covering that protects your eyes using an empty 2 liter soda bottle. Glasses can help too.

And yes, hand washing is important too. Frequently. 20 seconds or so per hour is not going to kill anyone but not doing so might. And the vector is not scratching your face. It's rubbing your eyes, or picking your nose, or sticking your finger in your mouth. Two of those are hard to do while wearing a mask. The third, well at least if you're wearing a mask you don't have 3. If you wear glasses, that might be at least partially covered.
I understand that the bold subheading is what the author wishes we would take away from their article but as I am attempting to articulate is the idea that
A. We don't know the most common method of virus transmission. We don't even know the mechanics of influenza transmission and its been studied for years. The common accepted theory is that Influenza and Corona virus are most effective in being introduced to our mucus membrane be it eyes, nose or mouth but its still unknown if this is the only way. Here is an article published on a simulation of Influenza A transmission in a student office. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6121424/ But even this study is based on lots of assumptions and hypothesize and simply studies possible contact points and simulated virus spread with in a closed environment.

B. If we don't know the most common way Corona virus is spread, or how long it can last on surfaces then how can we say how effective wearing or not wearing a mask is. In fact it cannot be ruled out that wearing a mask can increase the chance that droplets containing the droplet are spread to common touch objects when an individual touches their mask to adjust, remove or place on their face. I am not ruling out that masks on their own when studied in a closed environment are effective at reducing virus spread when its only means of transmission is by passing through the mask. The studies on mask with in this context are pretty definitive as to their effectiveness, and if virus transmission was only possible by particles coming from the nose and mouth being airborne and then inhaled by others, then studying of masks and their effectiveness would be all we needed to know.

But we don't know if this vector is the primary way of spreading an infection, or if there is more common and better ways of spreading an infection with this vector simply being a small chance to start with. So if the goal of a mask is to reduce the initial virus load and masks only reduce an uncommon vector of virus transmission then all the effort on masks and mask studies is not were our focus should be. We should be focused on finding the highest risk vectors and then finding ways to mitigate them.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Tuesday 13th of October:

- World: 37,955,113 confirmed cases and 1,082,928 confirmed deaths.

- US: First recorded instance of a man catching COVID twice, with the second bout much more serious than the first.

- Netherlands: landmark report from virologists from the country who release report on 89 year old who contracted COVID for a second time, and unfortunately perished from the reinfection.

- China: City of Qingdao which aims to test 9 million in five days, tests 3 million in just one day.

- UK: Government on the defensive as reports emerge SAGE Scientific advice group advised the country needed a "Circuit Breaker" 14 day mini-lockdown three weeks ago to keep COVID cases under control.

- UK: 21% of secondary schools have now sent pupils home due to COVID concerns - up from 18% last week. Based on last weeks figures of there being 4,188 of this type of school in the UK, that's 879 schools which have had issues, up 126 from my previous estimate of 753.

- Africa: Officials indicate a worst case scenario of 800 million cases and 8.4 million potential deaths would occur if a Herd Immunity approach was taken and the virus was left to ravage the country unchecked.

- Czech Republic: To close Schools and Bars in a partial lockdown to tackle the virus.

- Russia: Sees record high new daily cases and deaths.

- Neatherlands: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Brazil: Researchers have identified a link between support for the country’s president Bolsonaro and higher levels of Covid-19 infection and death in areas which supported the president in the last elections, with an over 10% increase in cases and deaths for every 10% more votes the president received than areas which didn't support him (e.g. to over simplify it: if an area was 20% more in support, they have had 20% more cases and deaths, 30% more supportive 30% extra cases and deaths.)
 

Vavrik

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I understand that the bold subheading is what the author wishes we would take away from their article but as I am attempting to articulate is the idea that
A. We don't know the most common method of virus transmission. We don't even know the mechanics of influenza transmission and its been studied for years. The common accepted theory is that Influenza and Corona virus are most effective in being introduced to our mucus membrane be it eyes, nose or mouth but its still unknown if this is the only way. Here is an article published on a simulation of Influenza A transmission in a student office. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6121424/ But even this study is based on lots of assumptions and hypothesize and simply studies possible contact points and simulated virus spread with in a closed environment.

B. If we don't know the most common way Corona virus is spread, or how long it can last on surfaces then how can we say how effective wearing or not wearing a mask is. In fact it cannot be ruled out that wearing a mask can increase the chance that droplets containing the droplet are spread to common touch objects when an individual touches their mask to adjust, remove or place on their face. I am not ruling out that masks on their own when studied in a closed environment are effective at reducing virus spread when its only means of transmission is by passing through the mask. The studies on mask with in this context are pretty definitive as to their effectiveness, and if virus transmission was only possible by particles coming from the nose and mouth being airborne and then inhaled by others, then studying of masks and their effectiveness would be all we needed to know.

But we don't know if this vector is the primary way of spreading an infection, or if there is more common and better ways of spreading an infection with this vector simply being a small chance to start with. So if the goal of a mask is to reduce the initial virus load and masks only reduce an uncommon vector of virus transmission then all the effort on masks and mask studies is not were our focus should be. We should be focused on finding the highest risk vectors and then finding ways to mitigate them.
I don't know where the disconnect is here, that study supports what I said. It recommends washing hands 6 times/hour, I said at least once. It says the vector of admission into the body is the eyes, nose and mouth. Also what I said. It is a study of the effectiveness of the N95 mask, compared with nothing. It does not address any other protection method which is likely to be less effective than N95, but better than nothing depending on the material it's made of. It is possible to get better than N95 protection. The study model was a flu virus, which is largely irrelevant in terms of the study. Both types of virus are roughly the same size, with the flu virus having a slightly narrower range inside the diameter range of SARS-CoV-2.

They can't do human trials of this, it is unethical. All they can do is observe, and simulate. Both the CDC and the WHO (and others) had taken the stance that the N95 respirator was effective only one way. It reduced transmission particles from the medical staff, to the patient, which it does do. However, they apparently had forgotten where the N95 mask comes from and the purpose it was designed to fulfill. It was not designed as a medical device. It is designed as an industrial device, where the problem is inhalation, not exhalation. The medical N95 mask is exactly the same mask as the ones worn by industrial workers. My take on it is, they didn't forget, they just didn't want to tell us.

As for B, you need to keep in mind that no mask can protect you 100%, especially one that is designed to allow 5% of virus sized particles to transit. In practice the number is much higher than 5%, and may be as high as 10 or 15%. Nevertheless, it's better to get 10 or 15% of a pathogen than 100% of it - and the exposure is more likely to cause an asymptomatic infection because of the reduction in viral load.

I'd also like to reiterate, the vector for infection is not unknown. It is primarily the eyes, nose, and mouth. Every other vector is minor in comparison. And yes, you can pick up the virus on your hands, other exposed skin and on your clothing and then transmit the virus into your body via your eyes, nose and mouth. By the way, I'm using the word "vector" incorrectly in this context.
 
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Bambooza

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I honestly don't know. i have a feeling that we are in agreement with a great deal in regards to epidemiology specifically with in virology. And it could simply be the use of the term Vector as it does have multiple meaning depending on the context and group. I was using it in the broadest sense to include fomites (inanimate objects capable of carrying infectious material and transferring it between hosts) with transmission nodes making up the vector. IE Host A sneezes onto their hand then touches a door knob. Host B touches door knob then rubs their eye lid. The door knob becomes the vector that transmits the infection from Host A to Host B.

My whole argument pivots around the idea that while testing of masks in a closed environment and subjugated to a single vector shows them to be effective. One cannot then extrapolate the data and say they are effective in general when faced with millions of possible vectors. Especially given new studies are showing the virus can live outside the body for weeks. To go forward and say that masks are highly effective at preventing individuals from contracting the cov-sars-2 is either ignorant of what the studies can tell us or disingenuous with the truth. The truth is we do not know how effective masks are at preventing the spread of cov-sars-2 and we are just now starting to perform group studies on the effect masks have on infection rates. Not that it will be conclusive in regards to masks effectiveness in preventing infection vs masks effect on human behavior which in turn caused the difference over the control group. It could also be that there was no discernible difference between the two groups


I personaly am eagerly awaiting the published results of the Denmark study as it has a large enough enrollment to start to show if there is any discernible difference between wearing a mask and not wearing a mask.
 

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Are lockdowns worse than the actual virus... check out Sweden. Funny how the WHO and the IMF are now saying lockdowns hurt people more. Some of us have been ridiculed for making such a claim, finally common sense is coming back in to the discussion, rather than fear.

1602642540528.png


 

ColdDog

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@Bambooza I thought you might like this.

By then, some San Franciscans had no intention of giving up their freedom again. One resident wrote Rolph that masks served no purpose but that Hassler alone could wear one if he wished. “And as far as I am concerned, I hope he will have to wear one for the next five years,” he said.

The rich began to see it as a fashionable item to cover their faces. My comment - because ugly rich women were now desirable - yes, I said it.

Again, it is control from a political perspective, but mask made sense outside of politics.

The post was flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Facebook.)

Yes, this is the world we live in... sick and tired of one perspective I suppose. You add in the suicides, depression, economic disfunction, I'd suppose the fear is worse than the cure.

In other words, it was a question of the legitimacy of state power, underscored by the discomfort of citizens who could not see one another’s faces. Publicly concealing oneself has always been associated with lawlessness and behaviors deemed antisocial or deviant, from the bandannas worn by train robbers to the Guy Fawkes masks found on antifa street protesters to the beaked plague doctor costume found at masquerades and Edwardian balls.

 
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Bambooza

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@Bambooza I thought you might like this.

By then, some San Franciscans had no intention of giving up their freedom again. One resident wrote Rolph that masks served no purpose but that Hassler alone could wear one if he wished. “And as far as I am concerned, I hope he will have to wear one for the next five years,” he said.

The rich began to see it as a fashionable item to cover their faces. My comment - because ugly rich women were now desirable - yes, I said it.

Again, it is control from a political perspective, but mask made sense outside of politics.

The post was flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Facebook.)

Yes, this is the world we live in... sick and tired of one perspective I suppose. You add in the suicides, depression, economic disfunction, I'd suppose the fear is worse than the cure.

I am not anti mask, I am all for people making informed decisions that best fits their own needs, but I also understand that masks are cheap and could possibly reduce the risk of spreading cov-sars-2. What I am strongly against is those who take a few select studies extrapolate the data to make ill formed support of their own personal views say its scientifically proven and beyond question or debate and then force others to adhere to it.

A prime example would be Dr Barry Marshall who tried to get people to listen to him say that ulcers were mostly caused by a bacterial infection and not the common belief that ulcers were stress induced.


It is now accepted that over half of ulcers are caused by a bacterial infection and can be simply treated with antibiotics instead of the prior treatment of stress management and dietary restrictions.


We also have the issue of p hacking and peer review allows established leaders in a field to act as gatekeepers which lead to bias and burying of studies that contradict their own research which leads to stagnation especially when the initial research was based on flawed data. The very principle of science is to question everything figure out how things work then question if our understanding is flawed and needs a revision.

So to reiterate. I am saying wear a mask as its cheap insurance at the possibility of reducing ones chances of contracting SARS-CoV-2, but we should not accept it as fact and should demand further studies performed as to the legitimacy of this claim.
 

ColdDog

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I am all for people making informed decisions
So to reiterate. I am saying wear a mask as its cheap insurance at the possibility of reducing ones chances of contracting SARS-CoV-2, but we should not accept it as fact and should demand further studies performed as to the legitimacy of this claim.
I know you are for the right thing... being people need to act responsibly. There are those who think people are too "stupid" to know right from wrong, were taught that is school, and those bad peopl people who do not understand usually wind up prison. That said, there is a line between rationality and fanaticism... I'd say the opposition has degraded itself to a fanatic mandate. There is more to life other than science (granted it is very important) but we have economics, social anxiety, and social unrest at play. So, we as a people need to thread the needle and find common ground, based on common sense.

So, as you can see, people are animals, they protect their own (families), even if it means other people must pay, namely the poor. Is grandma and grandpa in Florida more important than the grandma and grandpa in Ethiopia... that is the question, and I say they both have grandchildren to worry about. Yes, the conservative is pointing out how selfish the liberals are. When it comes down to it, you'll find conservative defending the poor with real solutions, and the liberals trying to make money of the crisis at the poor's expense (orgs) - even though they claim otherwise.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Just saw this...the biggest problem is the totally asymptomatic spreaders, not much you can do to guard against them, short of a total lockdown:
A fascinating case study.

I think mass testing of an area and locking down only those who test positive and perhaps those who have been in contact with them recently seems to be a strategy with legs - Some cities in the world seem to have got a lid on the outbreaks there doing this, one city at present has 12 cases and they are testing all 9 million people. It has been done at least once before and successfully contained it and life has been able to get back to normal.

Sledge hammer to crack a nut? When the nut generates two more nuts before you can discover the original one and crack it, a sledge hammer may be the only tool in the shed right now.
 

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I think mass testing of an area and locking down only those who test positive and perhaps those who have been in contact with them recently seems to be a strategy with legs - Some cities in the world seem to have got a lid on the outbreaks there doing this, one city at present has 12 cases and they are testing all 9 million people. It has been done at least once before and successfully contained it and life has been able to get back to normal.
this is currently the rule and law in the UK

It doesnt really work the way we're doing it, we're also not mass testing as in the whole population of the town gets tested, we're not even allowed a test unless we have symptoms or a key worker.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Wednesday 14th of October:

- World: 38,304,172 confirmed cases and 1,088,463 confirmed deaths.

- World: Total confirmed cases passes 38 million, we passed 37 million on Saturday meaning 1 million new cases in the last 4/5 days.

- Italy: Sees record high new daily cases at 7,332, higher than the peak in Wave 1.

- Portugal: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Switzerland: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Iran: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Russia: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Romania: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Switzerland: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Croatia: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Bosnia: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Slovenia: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Malta: Sees record high new daily cases.

- US: Trials on experimental drug the president was given and called a miracle cure, are paused amid "safety concerns". Currently no further details.

- UK: Around 25 used COVID tests delivered to people in city Birmingham to use in error.

- Spain: Number of children in the country being treated for toxic ingestion of Hand Sanitizer surges, the number of total reported cases standing at 10 times that of 2019.

- Russia: To keep schools open, university students to be drafted into classrooms in Moscow to cover for the older and vulnerable teachers who are at risk of COVID-19.

- Japan: Supercomputer identifies humidity as a contributing factor of the spread of particles, drier indoor conditions appear to be more favorable "Air humidity of lower than 30% resulted in more than double the amount of aerosolised particles compared to levels of 60% or higher, the simulations showed."

- France: Introduces state of emergency in regard to health and COVID-19.
 
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Bambooza

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Wednesday 14th of October:

- World: 38,304,172 confirmed cases and 1,088,463 confirmed deaths.

- World: Total confirmed cases passes 38 million, we passed 37 million on Saturday meaning 1 million new cases in the last 4/5 days.

- Italy: Sees record high new daily cases at 7,332, higher than the peak in Wave 1.

- Portugal: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Switzerland: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Iran: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Russia: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Romania: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Switzerland: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Croatia: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Bosnia: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Slovenia: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Malta: Sees record high new daily cases.

- US: Trials on experimental drug the president was given and called a miracle cure, are paused amid "safety concerns". Currently no further details.

- UK: Around 25 used COVID tests delivered to people in city Birmingham to use in error.

- Spain: Number of children in the country being treated for toxic ingestion of Hand Sanitizer surges, the number of total reported cases standing at 10 times that of 2019.

- Russia: To keep schools open, university students to be drafted into classrooms in Moscow to cover for the older and vulnerable teachers who are at risk of COVID-19.

- Japan: Supercomputer identifies humidity as a contributing factor of the spread of particles, drier indoor conditions appear to be more favorable "Air humidity of lower than 30% resulted in more than double the amount of aerosolised particles compared to levels of 60% or higher, the simulations showed."

- France: Introduces state of emergency in regard to health and COVID-19.

Looks like the flu season is starting to show up in force.
 
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ColdDog

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New CDC Study Finds Majority of Those Infected with COVID-19 ‘Always’ Wore Masks

Yeah no.

The evidence in favor of masks is far more extensive than this poorly written article (I spotted some spelling and grammatical errors) from a website that I've never heard of.

Want evidence that masks work? Go to Asia. The wearing of masks in the early stages of the pandemic (along with responsible, prompt lockdowns) nipped Covid19 over there in the bud. My relatives there wear them, no arguments or grumbling. It's not just masks mind you. You have to combine that with reasonable social distancing, regular hand washing, etc.

Not about to start a colossal argument cause I'm tired AF. All I can say is that I've been working 13 hour days for almost 2 months now. We all wear masks and practice social distancing and what the hey....no outbreaks on any of the productions in my town yet. (Touch wood). Anecdotal of course but I'm sure my experience is just as relevant as this 'Independent' website.
 

Bambooza

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Yeah no.

The evidence in favor of masks is far more extensive than this poorly written article (I spotted some spelling and grammatical errors) from a website that I've never heard of.

Want evidence that masks work? Go to Asia. The wearing of masks in the early stages of the pandemic (along with responsible, prompt lockdowns) nipped Covid19 over there in the bud. My relatives there wear them, no arguments or grumbling. It's not just masks mind you. You have to combine that with reasonable social distancing, regular hand washing, etc.

Not about to start a colossal argument cause I'm tired AF. All I can say is that I've been working 13 hour days for almost 2 months now. We all wear masks and practice social distancing and what the hey....no outbreaks on any of the productions in my town yet. (Touch wood). Anecdotal of course but I'm sure my experience is just as relevant as this 'Independent' website.

This is the issue, masks, hand washing, social distancing, lockdowns are a lot of variables, we don't know if they all are or only some of them are, we don't know to what degree they reduce the risk of infection. We can attempt to break out the variables into a closed lab setting for testing but even then it's an isolated case study that lacks real-world modeling of infection vectoring.

While I am very glad you have not had any outbreaks in your town, but without the virus infection being present it doesn't matter if you do all of the prescribed practices to keep safe or not as it's pointless as there is no chance of getting infected. It's like saying I have a bulletproof car but never get shot at, in fact, your car would be worse off than a standard compact car due to the extra weight as both cars are effective at stopping zero bullets. So saying that the masks are the reason you are not sick when there has been no virus present is not testing anything.

Don't get me wrong, wear the mask, wash the hands as it's like wearing the seatbelt, or owning a fire extinguisher, or driving the bulletproof car until the event happens you cannot say if your prep work was effective but if you don't do the work and the event happens then you are simply the benchmark the prep work is measured against.
 
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