Its not misinformation... just a different perspective. Unless you can leave the planet, we are all in the same boat, including this author.
Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread
- Thread starter Jolly_Green_Giant
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- coronavirus virus wuflu
For you nerds... Farr's Law
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Farr’s law seems to be a useful model to give an overview of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics. The countries with high dynamics are from Africa and Latin America. Thus, this is a call to urgently prioritize actions in those countries to intensify surveillance, to re-allocate resources, and to build healthcare capacities based on multi-nation collaboration to limit onward transmission and to reduce the future impact on these regions in an eventual second wave.
According to Farr’s law, the intrinsic epidemic’s behavior could be described as the relation of two arithmetic ratios:
The message is simple: always think of an alternative explanation for your observations.
COVID-19 pandemic and Farr’s law: A global comparison and prediction of outbreak acceleration and deceleration rates
The COVID-19 outbreak has forced most of the global population to lock-down and has put in check the health services all over the world. Current predictive models are complex, region-dependent, and might not be generalized to other countries. However, ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Farr’s law seems to be a useful model to give an overview of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics. The countries with high dynamics are from Africa and Latin America. Thus, this is a call to urgently prioritize actions in those countries to intensify surveillance, to re-allocate resources, and to build healthcare capacities based on multi-nation collaboration to limit onward transmission and to reduce the future impact on these regions in an eventual second wave.
According to Farr’s law, the intrinsic epidemic’s behavior could be described as the relation of two arithmetic ratios:
- The first ratio (R1) represents the change of cases or deaths (first level dynamic) comparing one time against the immediately before time (could be in days or months, based on the natural history of the disease). Thus, by subtracting 1·0 from this ratio, we can calculate the percent increase of cases or deaths, in physical terms, this measure could be understood as the “velocity of spread” of the epidemic.
- The second ratio (R2) measures the rate of change of R1s. It compares the R1 of one time against the R1 from the immediately before time. In physical terms, we can interpret this ratio as the acceleration of the epidemic (new cases or deaths).
The message is simple: always think of an alternative explanation for your observations.
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An interesting analogy however it's flawed - The masks are not to stop the bullets coming into the car although they can help, they are to stop the bullets coming out of the car. Having a mask on is akin to trying to perform a drive-by without rolling the window down.
If I were to continue your bulletproof car analogy under the assumption it is purely to stop bullets getting in, though - You don't know if the bullets are coming, but they are whizzing around you thick and fast - you might hear one has hit someone else nearby so you put your foot down and get it up to 70mph in a 30 zone... but then loose control on a curve and slam into a tree. You are not wearing a seat-belt and become a greasy red streak across the dashboard.
You need to drive your your bulletproof car (mask for personal defense) you keep the windows up (mask for defense of others), you obey the speed limits (social distancing and group sizes) and put on your seat belt (wash your hands and don't touch your face). Only a combination of measures are going to provide a comprehensive set of defenses.
You may still not be totally safe but you will have done as much as you can to limit your exposure to the virus. Science currently suggests lower load exposure, a higher chance of survival if you do contract it, if it fails to stop the virus the chances are higher that you'll have a lower severity of infection.
Weird article.New CDC Study Finds Majority of Those Infected with COVID-19 ‘Always’ Wore Masks
It's all "Arse about face" as we say in my country (backwards).
The headline suggests people get sick despite 'Always' wearing masks, lists a bunch of low-level inconveniences about wearing them, then goes on to question the "efficacy of wearing masks to prevent contracting the Coronavirus"...
In the words of Chris Roberts "And we're like, yeah no shit, we know..."
We know masks are not a comprehensive defense against contracting it. But we also know they are much more effective at stopping people from spreading it further, which the article goes on to admit: "...CDC says “cloth face coverings help prevent people who have COVID-19 from spreading the virus to others”...
It then goes on to say "Interestingly, the CDC found: Adults with confirmed COVID-19 (case-patients) were approximately twice as likely as were control-participants to have reported dining at a restaurant in the 14 days before becoming ill." A restaurant, a place where you cannot always wear a mask if you intend to eat...? So did they always wear a mask... or didn't they...?
This article has a bunch of information, even more contradictions, but no actual conclusions? What's it trying to say?
Investigations in to Long Covid suggest four separate syndromes may be at play, the below taken from the article:
A friend of mine who contracted COVID early in the pandemic, about four months ago, is still suffering symptoms and fatigue. They didn't go into intensive care, they have since tested negative for COVID-19 and as far as we know don't have lung or heart damage so seems likely they have post-viral fatigue syndrome unless it's something else effecting them?
- permanent organ damage to the lungs and heart
- post-intensive-care syndrome
- post-viral fatigue syndrome
- continuing Covid-19 symptoms
Coronavirus: 'Long Covid could be four different syndromes'
People with long-lasting effects of coronavirus infection are not being believed or treated, a review says.
www.bbc.co.uk
A friend of mine who contracted COVID early in the pandemic, about four months ago, is still suffering symptoms and fatigue. They didn't go into intensive care, they have since tested negative for COVID-19 and as far as we know don't have lung or heart damage so seems likely they have post-viral fatigue syndrome unless it's something else effecting them?
Critical opinion article on The Great Barrington Declaration from, of all places, Wired magazine:
www.wired.co.uk
There is no ‘scientific divide’ over herd immunity
There’s a lot of talk of scientists divided over Covid-19, but when you look at the evidence any so-called divide starts to evaporate
PeppaPigKilla
Admiral
Update on our covid situation
As mentioned my misses tested positive after showing symptoms a few weeks back. We all self-isolated for 2 weeks.
My partner's symptoms subsided for a couple of days but come back worse, with more coughing, vomiting, and a sore chest. Our health helpline arranged for paramedics to come out, they did a check over on her and said that physically she is ok and there is no need to go to hospital, result, good news.
Public health England has told us that she will probably still test positive if she takes another test but because the family has already self-isolated for 14 days that we can do as we please, go to work and school but she may need to self isolate.
This frustrates me as this makes no sense.
As mentioned my misses tested positive after showing symptoms a few weeks back. We all self-isolated for 2 weeks.
My partner's symptoms subsided for a couple of days but come back worse, with more coughing, vomiting, and a sore chest. Our health helpline arranged for paramedics to come out, they did a check over on her and said that physically she is ok and there is no need to go to hospital, result, good news.
Public health England has told us that she will probably still test positive if she takes another test but because the family has already self-isolated for 14 days that we can do as we please, go to work and school but she may need to self isolate.
This frustrates me as this makes no sense.
Many thanks for the update PPK, best wishes for a speedy recovery and good health for the whole family.
I think before the shortage of tests the whole family would have been tested and anyone who was asymptomatic would have remained on isolation?
PeppaPigKilla
Admiral
rules here are you're not allowed to test unless showing symptoms. If you're not showing symptoms but are a key worker or your council has requested you take one then you can have one.
Yep, the testing system is ill equipped right now and no mistake.
Considering studies such as the one that came from the country of Iceland early in the pandemic showed between 50% and 80% of cases are asymptomatic, it's either a crumbling system that was not prepared or built for mass testing, or entirely intentional and intended to spread the virus as far and wide as possible.
We'll have to wait 30 years for official papers to be released before we know what was actually going on with all this.
I wish I could just hand you an aluminum foil hat and say here you're safe now but I fear you might be right, even then the truth may never fully be known.
Radegast74
Space Marshal
Found this on the web...I hadn't heard anything about the "Great Barrington Declaration," other than a certain "Dr. Johnny Bananas" signed it...
arstechnica.com
White House informally endorses letting pandemic spread unchecked
On background, the White House says that herd immunity plan reflects its thinking.
arstechnica.com
COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Thursday 15th of October:
- World: 38,701,030 confirmed cases and 1,094,591 confirmed deaths.
- Europe: Sees highest week on record for new infections.
- US: Wisconsin and some other midwest states are seeing record new infection and hospitalization rates, with 22,000 cases across the area beating October 9th previous record of 20,000.
- UK: Track and Trace system records worst performance since late June, with only 62% per cent of close contacts of people who tested positive for Covid-19 being reached in the week to 7 October.
- France: Police search the home of Health Minister as part of enquiry into the government’s handling of the pandemic.
- US: Democratic vice-presidential nominee to suspend in-person events until Monday as two people with the campaign test positive.
- Europe: President of the European commission goes in to self isolation as a colleague tests positive, so far is testing negative.
- UK: London and nearby areas being increases to Tier 2 restrictions.
- Mexico: One of the countries richest men and critic of virus restrictions, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, tests positive for COVID-19. Tweets: “Take care of yourself and don’t be afraid, like I always said”.
- Switzerland: Health minister warns the country is seeing a deteriorating situation "a new dynamic, which is very negative and very strong", with record new infections for days in a row.
- UK: Another Thursday, another country added to the Quarantine Travel List. This time, Italy goes back on the list - with travelers having until 4am on Sunday to get back to the country without having a Quarantine Order implemented.
- World: 38,701,030 confirmed cases and 1,094,591 confirmed deaths.
- Europe: Sees highest week on record for new infections.
- US: Wisconsin and some other midwest states are seeing record new infection and hospitalization rates, with 22,000 cases across the area beating October 9th previous record of 20,000.
- UK: Track and Trace system records worst performance since late June, with only 62% per cent of close contacts of people who tested positive for Covid-19 being reached in the week to 7 October.
- France: Police search the home of Health Minister as part of enquiry into the government’s handling of the pandemic.
- US: Democratic vice-presidential nominee to suspend in-person events until Monday as two people with the campaign test positive.
- Europe: President of the European commission goes in to self isolation as a colleague tests positive, so far is testing negative.
- UK: London and nearby areas being increases to Tier 2 restrictions.
- Mexico: One of the countries richest men and critic of virus restrictions, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, tests positive for COVID-19. Tweets: “Take care of yourself and don’t be afraid, like I always said”.
- Switzerland: Health minister warns the country is seeing a deteriorating situation "a new dynamic, which is very negative and very strong", with record new infections for days in a row.
- UK: Another Thursday, another country added to the Quarantine Travel List. This time, Italy goes back on the list - with travelers having until 4am on Sunday to get back to the country without having a Quarantine Order implemented.
Radegast74
Space Marshal
Another useful site for current info: the NCAA's COVID-19 updates, so you can find out if your favorite team's games have been cancelled for this weekend, or this season:
COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Friday 16th of October:
- World: 39,015,163 confirmed cases and 1,099,727 confirmed deaths.
- World: Passes 39 million cases. We passed 38 million on Wednesday, meaning 1 million cases in the last 3/4 days.
- World Health Organisation: Releases report of a trial suggesting Antiviral drug Remdesivir has little or no effect on COVID-19. The USA bought the worlds supply of the drug earlier in the year. Maker Gilead says there is robust evidence saying the treatment cuts hospital stays.
- UK: Country of Lancashire to move into Tier 3 Lockdown. Lancashire Council leaders indicate is was "Bullied" in to accepting the measures and that the government was unwilling to listen to any evidence on which measures were required saying schools, retail, and workplaces were off the table and non-negotiable. "Throughout the negotiations, government officials were only interested in the politics and threatened any district leader who did not fall into line with 10 Downing Street's threats to accept tier three would suffer an imposition of tier three and that their borough 'would become an island' that would receive much less in funding and resource."
- UK: Prime Minister makes public statement stating City of Manchester authorities have to cooperate with the Tier 3 restrictions the government is implementing to get them in as quickly as possible, ignoring the months of pleading the city and other northern leaders have been making for the government to cooperate with them to share data and enact the correct measures locally.
- Italy: Sees record new daily cases at 10,010.
- UK: ONS statistics suggest COVID cases are up 50% on last week.
- Germany: Cancels EU summit due to virus.
- Israel: set to relax restrictions on second lockdown as cases fall.
- UK: Police break up a wedding reception of 100 guests, current maximum for wedding receptions is 15. The event was described as a "flagrant and arrogant violation of the law".
- UK: Report released detailing the case of a COVID-19 test swab being performed on a tracheotomy patient, where the swab snapped off and fell into their lung. The swabs end was designed to be snapped off to fit in a test tube for transport and later analysis.
- Switzerland: Yodelling contest attended by 600 people becomes a Superspreader hotspot, as the country sees record new daily cases.
- China: City of Qingdao nears completion of testing its 9 million residents.
- Greece: Sees record new daily cases.
- Bosnia: Sees record new daily cases.
- Slovakia: Sees record new daily cases.
- Netherlands: Sees record new daily cases.
- World: 39,015,163 confirmed cases and 1,099,727 confirmed deaths.
- World: Passes 39 million cases. We passed 38 million on Wednesday, meaning 1 million cases in the last 3/4 days.
- World Health Organisation: Releases report of a trial suggesting Antiviral drug Remdesivir has little or no effect on COVID-19. The USA bought the worlds supply of the drug earlier in the year. Maker Gilead says there is robust evidence saying the treatment cuts hospital stays.
- UK: Country of Lancashire to move into Tier 3 Lockdown. Lancashire Council leaders indicate is was "Bullied" in to accepting the measures and that the government was unwilling to listen to any evidence on which measures were required saying schools, retail, and workplaces were off the table and non-negotiable. "Throughout the negotiations, government officials were only interested in the politics and threatened any district leader who did not fall into line with 10 Downing Street's threats to accept tier three would suffer an imposition of tier three and that their borough 'would become an island' that would receive much less in funding and resource."
- UK: Prime Minister makes public statement stating City of Manchester authorities have to cooperate with the Tier 3 restrictions the government is implementing to get them in as quickly as possible, ignoring the months of pleading the city and other northern leaders have been making for the government to cooperate with them to share data and enact the correct measures locally.
- Italy: Sees record new daily cases at 10,010.
- UK: ONS statistics suggest COVID cases are up 50% on last week.
- Germany: Cancels EU summit due to virus.
- Israel: set to relax restrictions on second lockdown as cases fall.
- UK: Police break up a wedding reception of 100 guests, current maximum for wedding receptions is 15. The event was described as a "flagrant and arrogant violation of the law".
- UK: Report released detailing the case of a COVID-19 test swab being performed on a tracheotomy patient, where the swab snapped off and fell into their lung. The swabs end was designed to be snapped off to fit in a test tube for transport and later analysis.
- Switzerland: Yodelling contest attended by 600 people becomes a Superspreader hotspot, as the country sees record new daily cases.
- China: City of Qingdao nears completion of testing its 9 million residents.
- Greece: Sees record new daily cases.
- Bosnia: Sees record new daily cases.
- Slovakia: Sees record new daily cases.
- Netherlands: Sees record new daily cases.
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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Saturday 17th of October:
- World: 39,485,409 confirmed cases and 1,106,519 confirmed deaths.
- World: Planet sees over 400,000 new cases in a single day for first time.
- France: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Italy: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Austria: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Czech Republic: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Ukraine: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Poland: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Malaysia: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- US: Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming report record rise in new daily cases.
- UK: Over 28 million people in England are now under stricter COVID regulations - more than half the population. The Tiers system was intended to allow parts of the country not too hard hit by the pandemic to continue unabated but it appears that strategy is only causing those areas a reprieve before they catch up with cases and have to join the rest of the country already under harder restrictions. Scientists point out a Tier'd system would only work well if the pandemic had not already reached all parts of the country - it has except for some off-shore islands like Jersey and Guernsey.
- UK: City of Manchester still holding ground on Level 3 restrictions on the hospitality sector, with discussions still ongoing. Confusion reigns as government says they'll be continuing talks tomorrow however Manchester officials indicate no such meetings have been scheduled.
- World: 39,485,409 confirmed cases and 1,106,519 confirmed deaths.
- World: Planet sees over 400,000 new cases in a single day for first time.
- France: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Italy: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Austria: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Czech Republic: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Ukraine: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Poland: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- Malaysia: Reports record rise in new daily cases.
- US: Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming report record rise in new daily cases.
- UK: Over 28 million people in England are now under stricter COVID regulations - more than half the population. The Tiers system was intended to allow parts of the country not too hard hit by the pandemic to continue unabated but it appears that strategy is only causing those areas a reprieve before they catch up with cases and have to join the rest of the country already under harder restrictions. Scientists point out a Tier'd system would only work well if the pandemic had not already reached all parts of the country - it has except for some off-shore islands like Jersey and Guernsey.
- UK: City of Manchester still holding ground on Level 3 restrictions on the hospitality sector, with discussions still ongoing. Confusion reigns as government says they'll be continuing talks tomorrow however Manchester officials indicate no such meetings have been scheduled.
That part is easy to explain. They weren't invited to the meetings.
COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Sunday 18th of October:
- World: 39,803,562 confirmed cases and 1,111,714 confirmed deaths.
- UK: Police to receive Track and Trace info on people in England who have had a Self Isolation order imposed on them, following a government commissioned study suggests only 11% of those who have been identified as having been in contact with people who have tested positive have obeyed the order to quarantine too.
- UK: Manchester Mayor writes to the prime minister and other national political party leaders to help break the impasse on the areas level 3 lockdown requirements, suggesting an urgent parliament debate on the matter should be called to discuss the inconsistency and bartering that appears to be required to secure funding from the government to help businesses stay afloat in the Tier 3 lockdowns, saying "This is not just a Manchester issue" and indicated he was ready to speak to the Prime Minister on the matter at any time. Later in the afternoon he indicated he had had a constructive conversation on the phone with an official from Downing Street, who was not the Prime Minister.
- India: Nasal vaccine candidates by Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech due to enter stage 3 trails, these are different in the other vaccines which have entered State 3 trials have all been injection vaccines.
- Europe: Passes more than 250,000 COVID deaths.
- US: Confirmed cases pass 8 million.
- France: Enforces a new curfew in 9 cities.
- Italy: Sees record high of daily new infections.
- Switzerland: Announces stricter measures to be implemented as cases continue to rise.
- Czech Republic: Prague protests on restrictions end in clashes with police as violence erupts.
- US: New York announces a preliminary plan for rolling out a vaccine once one is announced as being available:
- World: 39,803,562 confirmed cases and 1,111,714 confirmed deaths.
- UK: Police to receive Track and Trace info on people in England who have had a Self Isolation order imposed on them, following a government commissioned study suggests only 11% of those who have been identified as having been in contact with people who have tested positive have obeyed the order to quarantine too.
- UK: Manchester Mayor writes to the prime minister and other national political party leaders to help break the impasse on the areas level 3 lockdown requirements, suggesting an urgent parliament debate on the matter should be called to discuss the inconsistency and bartering that appears to be required to secure funding from the government to help businesses stay afloat in the Tier 3 lockdowns, saying "This is not just a Manchester issue" and indicated he was ready to speak to the Prime Minister on the matter at any time. Later in the afternoon he indicated he had had a constructive conversation on the phone with an official from Downing Street, who was not the Prime Minister.
- India: Nasal vaccine candidates by Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech due to enter stage 3 trails, these are different in the other vaccines which have entered State 3 trials have all been injection vaccines.
- Europe: Passes more than 250,000 COVID deaths.
- US: Confirmed cases pass 8 million.
- France: Enforces a new curfew in 9 cities.
- Italy: Sees record high of daily new infections.
- Switzerland: Announces stricter measures to be implemented as cases continue to rise.
- Czech Republic: Prague protests on restrictions end in clashes with police as violence erupts.
- US: New York announces a preliminary plan for rolling out a vaccine once one is announced as being available:
- Phase 1: healthcare workers in patient-care settings, long-term care facility workers and some long-term care residents
- Phase 2: first responders, school staff, other public-facing frontline workers and people whose health conditions put them at extreme risk
- Phase 3: people over 65
- Phase 4: all other essential workers
- Phase 5: healthy adults and children
Things are rapidly getting back to a COVID-normal here, we anticipate a COVID-normal Christmas for Victoria
Specifically that means the following here in Vic, assume all these are with masks outside the home.
Social
Specifically that means the following here in Vic, assume all these are with masks outside the home.
Social
- curfew - not in place
- leave home - no restrictions
- public gatherings - no restrictions but organisers encouraged to keep records of attendees
- visitors to the home - no restrictions but organisers encouraged to keep records of attendees
- childcare - open
- schools - onsite learning
- adult education - open with a COVIDSafe Plan. Return to onsite learning
- phased return to onsite work for workers who have been working from home
- hospitality - no restrictions but record-keeping of patrons to continue
- retail - all open
- real estate - operating with safety measures and record-keeping
- no restrictions on community sports or spectators
- weddings, funerals, religion - no limits but organisers required to keep records of attendees
- travel within Victoria - allowed (can’t enter any restricted area)
- borders - continued international border controls, state border controls activated in case of outbreaks
- entertainment venues - open, safety measures and record-keeping
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Radegast74
Space Marshal
Interesting article on the current state of COVID-19 across different countries...Scroll down past the picture intro to get to the article:
Don't know how I missed this one for the Catharsis Corner yesterday:
- UK: People in the country of Kent booked appointments and were sent to a COVID test center which did not exist.
One person said "I'm personally disillusioned with the whole test-and-trace programme," revealing they had been previously advised the nearest test centers with available appointments were in Birmingham (292 mile round trip away) and The Isle Of White (202 mile round trip including a ferry trip across the sea).
On a pedantry note, I would like them to change the name of the "NHS Test and Trace" system to the "NHS et al. Test and Trace system." There are 35 fingers in that pie, apparently only four of which are NHS:
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk
- UK: People in the country of Kent booked appointments and were sent to a COVID test center which did not exist.
People sent to 'non-existent' Sevenoaks Covid test site
Kent County Council apologise after people sent to a mobile unit that has not yet been installed.
www.bbc.co.uk
One person said "I'm personally disillusioned with the whole test-and-trace programme," revealing they had been previously advised the nearest test centers with available appointments were in Birmingham (292 mile round trip away) and The Isle Of White (202 mile round trip including a ferry trip across the sea).
On a pedantry note, I would like them to change the name of the "NHS Test and Trace" system to the "NHS et al. Test and Trace system." There are 35 fingers in that pie, apparently only four of which are NHS:
Here's Who Actually Runs NHS Test And Trace
The £37 billion system has been accused of failing in its "main objective" – but people argue it's not the NHS' fault.
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