Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

[Radegast74]

Its still way to early to make such judgments on Sweden's policy.

No, it's not too early. It's like having an airplane lose a wing in flight...would you say it would be too early to make a judgment about it crashing? and to wait until 2023? LOL ... you can make an accurate prediction that the plane without a wing will crash, because we know there are physical laws governing flight, and we know what happens when a human body hits the ground at a certain speed, etc.

In a similar manner, the virus spreads according to certain known parameters, even if it is a "novel" coronavirus...we know in general how virus spread and we know how other coronaviruses spread. We also know the medical impact of the virus. Think of the old Donald Rumsfeld "known knowns and known unknowns..."

What is going to happen is, the higher the number of people infected, the more infections you will get on subsequent days/weeks/months, as people interact with each other and enable the spread, *unless active steps* are taken to reduce the opportunities for the virus to spread. The more infections, the more likely people will need a higher level of care, and at a certain point the hospitals will be swamped and unable to provide the care needed for the worst cases, which will lead to a higher number of deaths/higher death rate.

Google for yourself the relative impact of COVID in the countries surrounding Sweden. And while you are at it, look at the stats of recent cases in countries like Australia and New Zealand, where they took active steps early to halt the spread. Or, wait until 2023, I don't care, but sticking your head in the sand and ignoring reality/science isn't the way to make decisions and policy for large groups of people, like counties/states/nations. Well, it isn't the optimum way to make policy or decisions, even if certain leaders/presidents/douchebags are making their decisions this way. So, exercise some personal responsibility!

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Wednesday 18th of November:

- World: 55,828,041 confirmed cases and 1,342,080 confirmed deaths.

- US/World: Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine trials data suggests vaccine effectiveness rating of 94% in the over 65's.

- US: The heads of heads of the American Medical Association, the American Nurses Association and the American Hospitals Association warn information on the availability of drugs and hospital capacity "needs to be shared to save countless lives" as handover and sharing of data between incumbent and incoming administrations stalls.

- UK: National Audit Office accuses Government of lack of transparency over £18 billion of COVID response funds handed out, with £10.5 billion being given directly without being put to tender to other companies.

- UK: £21 million ($28 million) of tax payers money paid to a single Spanish business man who acted as a go-between between the UK and an American Personal Protective Equipment Manufacturer.

- US: Seven people in Texas and Illinois accused of defrauding the Paycheck Protection Program to the tune of $16 million, generating multiple fraudulent cheques and using the funds to buy Porches and Lamborghinis. “Some fraudsters create the most complicated schemes to steal money from the taxpayer," [...] "Just imagine how productive they could be if they put their creativity and effort into noble and useful work.”

- Germany: Water canon bought in to control Lockdown and COVID restriction protesters as between 5,000 and 11,000 congregate.

- Australia: State of South Australia to enter a six day lockdown to curb cluster outbreak.

- Switzerland: Hospitals close to capacity as all of the countries 876 Intensive Care beds are full, only 240 non IC rated beds remain available for serious care needs. For critical care of the counties 22k beds 16k are filled.

- UK: Liverpool mass testing finds 700 asymptomatic carriers after near 100,000 tests conducted in the last 10 days.

- Wales: Mass testing to be held in Merthyr Tydfil this weekend.

- China: Sinovac vaccine candidate enters State 3 trials.

- Japan: Tokyo city sees 500 new confirmed cases in one day, the highest daily cases in the city to this point.

 

[Bambooza]

No, it's not too early. It's like having an airplane lose a wing in flight...would you say it would be too early to make a judgment about it crashing? and to wait until 2023? LOL ... you can make an accurate prediction that the plane without a wing will crash, because we know there are physical laws governing flight, and we know what happens when a human body hits the ground at a certain speed, etc.

In a similar manner, the virus spreads according to certain known parameters, even if it is a "novel" coronavirus...we know in general how virus spread and we know how other coronaviruses spread. We also know the medical impact of the virus. Think of the old Donald Rumsfeld "known knowns and known unknowns..."

Yes we know the effects of a plane loosing a wing because its testable and easily re testable/demonstrable. We currently do not have any metric on the effects on this scale within any of the global policies each of the governments have enacted in regards to a virus of this type. We have conjecture and speculation as to the possible outcome but we do not have any metric to judge against at this moment. Any suggestion otherwise is delusional at best. The best comparison would be using the stock market and attempting to speculate future outcomes of market movements. Even with years of data, data models are often proven false and unlike the stock market this virus spread and regional reaction impacts do not have very much data to create any sort of predictive modeling on. So in general we have a basic understanding of how virus spread and some modeling which is used for the flu shot creation (what strains and variants should be included for each region) its still often times no better then a random guess. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-selection.htm

What is going to happen is, the higher the number of people infected, the more infections you will get on subsequent days/weeks/months, as people interact with each other and enable the spread, *unless active steps* are taken to reduce the opportunities for the virus to spread. The more infections, the more likely people will need a higher level of care, and at a certain point the hospitals will be swamped and unable to provide the care needed for the worst cases, which will lead to a higher number of deaths/higher death rate.

Virus spreading is not as simple as a infected person A interacts with subgroup B which now is infected. While subgroup B now has a probability of becoming infected through their interaction with infected person A there is no guarantee. Second as you scale up the interactions and infection candidates it creates high and low infection spots in uncontrolled populations where the virus will spread rapidly with in small groups and may or may not spread to another group before dieing off. This often leads to pockets of virus infection that runs out of new persons to infect due to limited interactions with non infected persons and inhibits the spread of the virus. (I am still looking for a graphic that shows epidemic spread modeling and how it creates pocket hotspots) Things that are being taken into consideration over other similar virus models is the long incubation time and the more connected persons in urban centers are. Compared to past epidemic spreads most individuals did not travel much beyond their farm and weekly social gathering place (often a local church).

What is a Hotspot Anyway?

The importance of spatial clusters, or “hotspots,” in infectious disease epidemiology has been increasingly recognized, and targeting hotspots is often seen as an important component of disease-control strategies. However, the precise ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Transmissible vaccines in heterogeneous populations: Implications for vaccine design

Transmissible vaccines may provide a promising solution for improving the control of infectious disease, particularly zoonotic pathogens with wildlife…

www.sciencedirect.com

Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of rese…

www.sciencedirect.com

Google for yourself the relative impact of COVID in the countries surrounding Sweden. And while you are at it, look at the stats of recent cases in countries like Australia and New Zealand, where they took active steps early to halt the spread.

As already discussed months ago Australia and especially places like New Zealand have the distinct advantage of relative isolation with few ports of entry. This is easily seen in the low number of infections given the similar dates of other countries lock downs in March. But even still South Australia just went back into a 6 day lock down due to a resurgence of the virus. Even if they are able to completely eradicate the virus without a vaccine they will have to remain isolated and there is no guarantee they will have the virus eradicated even with a vaccine.

Or, wait until 2023, I don't care, but sticking your head in the sand and ignoring reality/science isn't the way to make decisions and policy for large groups of people, like counties/states/nations. Well, it isn't the optimum way to make policy or decisions, even if certain leaders/presidents/douchebags are making their decisions this way. So, exercise some personal responsibility!

I am not saying the Sweden's policy is the correct or best way. I am simply saying its still way to early to tell which way was the best way when looking at a social, life and economic impact. Until the end and a vacine has mostly eradicated the virus then we can look to see the total death and GDP see was there any difference and if there is what other impacts there was and even then there might not be any agreement as there will always be disagreements on what is acceptable and what is not.[/QUOTE]

 

[Montoya]

This leads us to the issues of the day... covid 19 and global warming. There are scientists on both side of each of these, and we can choose, for now.

No, there are no "both sides" here.

There is an overwhelmingly scientific supported, data driven one side, and a very small politically driven other side that wants you to think you are strong, independent free thinker by believing the exact opposite.

 

[Montoya]

Fuck this guy and this short circuit brain warped method of thinking:

For those who don't know, Charlie here cofounded Turningpoint USA. The other cofounder... well he is not around much anymore:

But at least he died in comfort knowing that he was strong, independent freethinker as his lungs filled with fluid and eventually stopped working.

 

[Bambooza]

Fuck this guy and this short circuit brain warped method of thinking:

View attachment 19286

For those who don't know, Charlie here cofounded Turningpoint USA. The other cofounder... well he is not around much anymore:

View attachment 19287


But at least he died in comfort knowing that he was strong, independent freethinker as his lungs filled with fluid and eventually stopped working.

I agree with you, I am tired of extremes and if you don't follow my omniscient opinion then you are not "label" and need to leave the party/group/planet...

 

[Montoya]

I agree with you, I am tired of extremes and if you don't follow my omniscient opinion then you are not "label" and need to leave the party/group/planet...

This is not about extremes, its about right and wrong.

Snorting heroine, and not snorting heroine are not extremes, nor are they equal and opposing point of views.

 

[Bambooza]

This is not about extremes, its about right and wrong.

Snorting heroine, and not snorting heroine are not extremes, nor are they equal and opposing point of views.

Not sure I follow. Snorting and not snorting are not points of view as they are actions. Being able to make the choice as to if its legal to snort heroine would be a point of view.

 

[Vavrik]

Breaking News released today. Not yet peer reviewed, but coming.

Pfizer and BioNTech Conclude Phase 3 Study of COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, Meeting All Primary Efficacy Endpoints | Pfizer

Primary efficacy analysis demonstrates BNT162b2 to be 95% effective against COVID-19 beginning 28 days after the first dose; 170 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were evaluated, with 162 observed in the placebo group versus 8 in the vaccine group Efficacy was consistent across age, gender, race and...

www.pfizer.com

 

[Montoya]

Not sure I follow. Snorting and not snorting are not points of view as they are actions. Being able to make the choice as to if its legal to snort heroine would be a point of view.

I was implying that doing something like not wearing masks is an expression of one extreme, which might be an implication that wearing a mask is another extreme, but I dont think you meant it in that way. I withdraw my comment your honor.

 

[Montoya]

Wow, this sucks:

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Thursday 19th of November:

- World: 56,498,113 confirmed cases and 1,354,205 confirmed deaths.

- World: Passes 56 million confirmed cases, we passed 55 on Tuesday meaning 1 million more cases in the last 2/3 days.

- US: Passes 250,000 confirmed deaths.

- Europe: World Health Organization indicates Europe is seeing one COVID death every 17 seconds.

- New York: Closes public schools, triggered automatically as the city had reached a 3% population infection rate.

- UK: Another Thursday, another bunch of countries added to... the UK Non-Quarentine travel list... Rwanda, Uruguay, Bonaire, St Eustatius & Saba, the Northern Mariana Islands and the US Virgin Islands are all okay to return from from 4am on Saturday without the need to quarantine, however the Transport Secretary did point out as the UK in under national lockdown anyway, no you are still staying at home until at least December 2nd if not longer.

- Sweden: Mink workers test positive for COVID-19, only days after the completion of the mass culling in Denmark where the entire population of 17 million farmed mink has now been eradicated.

- Denmark: Health Ministry announces following mass Mink cull mutant strain of COVID most likely extinct.

- Ireland: Department of health recommends Mink cull too.

- UK: In October COVID-19 was the third highest cause of death, after Dementia and Heart Disease.

- India: Increases fines for not wearing masks in the capital Dheli by 385%

- Russia: Passes 2 million confirmed COVID cases.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Friday 20th November:

- World: 57,204,849 confirmed cases and 1,365,612 confirmed deaths.

- World: Passes 57 million cases. We passed 56 million yesterday meaning one million new cases in just one day...

- Sweden: Sees record high new daily cases.

- Russia: Sees record high new daily cases.

- India: Passes 9 million total confirmed cases.

- US: California brings in Curfew on all 40 million residents.

- Mexico: Passes 100,000 total confirmed deaths.

- Canada: Sees massive spike in cases as second wave takes hold.

- Germany: Doctor arrested on suspicion of murdering two seriously ill patients after they died from lethal injection.

- England: Infections leveling off following introduction of Lockdown.

- Germany: Infections stabilizing but not reducing following tightening of restrictions.

- France: Prepares to reopen shops for Christmas preparations as data indicates peak of second wave has passed for now.

- Italy: Tyrol area starts mass screenings with a three-day attempt to test at least 70% of the local population.

- WHO: Advises hospitals not to use Remdesivir as it insists there is no evidence it works on COVID-19. Do not mistake that for meaning there is evidence it doesn't work - the WHO call it a "Living Timeline" in which if evidence emerges either way for or against they will update their guidance. You know, like they did with face masks. They defend their stance saying it is a very expensive drug which takes a long time to administer.

- Australia: South Australia Lockdown to end 3 days early following finding man who tested positive for Covid-19 had lied to contact tracers over working in a pizza bar another case had worked in, claiming he had only picked up a pizza, concealing that he had in fact been a close prolonged contact with the other infected person.

 

[Starscribe]

Listen to Montoya when he says this.

My friend who tested positive on the 20th of April is still suffering from Long COVID. Their symptoms got so bad a few weeks ago, they were re-tested and found to be negative - they only got the virus once, but got he same symptoms so bad they had to have a re-test to make sure they hadn't caught it again.

For them, it isn't going away. For them, it continues seven months after they contracted it. They are now part of the UK study in to Long COVID.

Look after yourselves people.

My friend caught it in March. "Recovered". Went off sick in April. She's not worked properly since.

She's 29.

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

My friend caught it in March. "Recovered". Went off sick in April. She's not worked properly since.

She's 29.

There was something about organ impairment in people suffering Long... Ah, here it is. Seems to be very early days of working out just what's going on with it:

Damage to multiple organs recorded in 'long Covid' cases

Exclusive: study of low-risk individuals finds impairments four months after infection

www.theguardian.com

 

[Vavrik]

There was something about organ impairment in people suffering Long... Ah, here it is. Seems to be very early days of working out just what's going on with it:

Damage to multiple organs recorded in 'long Covid' cases

Exclusive: study of low-risk individuals finds impairments four months after infection

www.theguardian.com

That isn't necessarily caused by "Long COVID", it's more likely a delayed response to the damage the virus can do. There are reports of previously healthy individuals for example becoming diabetic, which in itself is not that rare - but it's happening with a higher frequency in people recovering from COVID infection. Most of this is formerly healthy people who become type 2 diabetic, but it is not unheard of for type 1 diabetes to develop.

There was a paper on this back in May.

Type 1 diabetes triggered by covid-19 pandemic: A potential outbreak?

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

That isn't necessarily caused by "Long COVID", it's more likely a delayed response to the damage the virus can do. There are reports of previously healthy individuals for example becoming diabetic, which in itself is not that rare - but it's happening with a higher frequency in people recovering from COVID infection. Most of this is formerly healthy people who become type 2 diabetic, but it is not unheard of for type 1 diabetes to develop.

There was a paper on this back in May.

Type 1 diabetes triggered by covid-19 pandemic: A potential outbreak?

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Many thanks Vavrik, our understanding of this new virus truly is in its infancy.

 

[Starscribe]

My friend's symptoms are like ME. She's getting tired easily. Can't walk long distances. And she struggles to concentrate for long periods. It's effectively stopped her working.

 

[Montoya]

My friend's symptoms are like ME. She's getting tired easily. Can't walk long distances. And she struggles to concentrate for long periods. It's effectively stopped her working.

We have mentioned this several times in this thread.

The long term repercussions of COVID-19 are not known yet. Getting COVID and recovering is great, most people never need hospitalization or any kind of special care, but how is your health looking 5-10yrs from now?

 

[NaffNaffBobFace]

COVID Catharsis Corner - reports from around the world from today, Saturday 21st of November:

- World: 57,883,737 confirmed cases and 1,377,392 confirmed deaths.

- Wales: Merthyr Tydfil, Mass testing begins and queues form as locals embrace the attempt to test most of the local population.

- US/UK: COVID Treatment for people without functioning immune systems who cannot take a vaccine using antibodies cultured from a single COVID patent in the US enters advanced trials in the UK with 1000 participants.

- US: Donald Trump Jr tests positive for COVID-19.

- Turkey: Sees record high new daily cases.

- UK: 149 pupils at a Cumbria boarding school test positive for COVID-19.

- Russia: Sees record high new daily cases and deaths.

- UK: Liverpool, and 15 are arrested at anti-lockdown protest.

- Denmark: Over 500 tractors parade past Danish parliament building as to bring awareness and protest over the national Mink cull.

- Japan: Tokyo city sees record high new daily cases.

- UK: Town of Stone in Staffordshire, and single pub found to be the epicenter of a cluster of 22 cases has its Alcohol License reviewed. Other pups in the UK are also being investigated as it is found Track and Trace records are incomplete or were filled out with false details, such as in once case a certain mr Micky Mouse who was not able to be located with the details provided.

- Australia: Area of Victora down to just one active COVID case.

- UK: Latest figures reveal number of COVID infections acquired from person to person inside hospitals has doubled in the space of one week.