Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

NaffNaffBobFace

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I am truly sorry as I am not sure I understand what you are saying.

It is my understanding that your goal is to get the world's population to the point where Corona strain Covid19 is no longer being actively transmitted. That those who might come into contact with an active case will not get infected and/or subsequently pass it on to others.

If my understanding of the goal is correct then I will say this is a very unrealistic goal for the following reasons.

Immunity is not that you are impervious to the infection, that you can not get infected or during the infected phase not be shedding the virus, it simply means one natural immunity cells are hopefully able to quickly respond. Age and health also greatly factor into the immune response and its entirely possible that a young healthy person who is simply stressed out about a final exam would even after getting a vaccine end up with a higher viral load, more virus shedding, and longer recovery time then if they were not stressed.

Types of Vaccines
The key to vaccines is injecting the antigens into the body without causing the person to get sick at the same time. Scientists have developed several ways of doing this, and each approach makes for a different type of vaccine.

Live Attenuated Vaccines: For these types of vaccines, a weaker, asymptomatic form of the virus or bacteria is introduced into the body. Because it is weakened, the pathogen will not spread and cause sickness, but the immune system will still learn to recognize its antigens and know to fight in the future.

  • Advantages: Because these vaccines introduce actual live pathogens into the body, it is an excellent simulation for the immune system. So live attenuated vaccines can result in lifelong immunity with just one or two doses.
  • Disadvantages: Because they contain living pathogens, live attenuated vaccines are not given to people with weakened immune systems, such as people undergoing chemotherapy or HIV treatment, as there is a risk the pathogen could get stronger and cause sickness. Additionally, these vaccines must be refrigerated at all times so the weakened pathogen doesn't die.
  • Specific Vaccines:
    • Measles
    • Mumps
    • Rubella (MMR combined vaccine)
    • Varicella (chickenpox)
    • Influenza (nasal spray)
    • Rotavirus
Inactivated Vaccines: For these vaccines, the specific virus or bacteria is killed with heat or chemicals, and its dead cells are introduced into the body. Even though the pathogen is dead, the immune system can still learn from its antigens how to fight live versions of it in the future.

  • Advantages: These vaccines can be freeze dried and easily stored because there is no risk of killing the pathogen as there is with live attenuated vaccines. They are also safer, without the risk of the virus or bacteria mutating back into its disease-causing form.
  • Disadvantages: Because the virus or bacteria is dead, it's not as accurate a simulation of the real thing as a live attenuated virus. Therefore, it often takes several doses and "booster shots" to train the body to defend itself.
  • Specific Vaccines:
    • Polio (IPV)
    • Hepatitis A
    • Rabies
Subunit/conjugate Vaccines: For some diseases, scientists are able to isolate a specific protein or carbohydrate from the pathogen that, when injected into the body, can train the immune system to react without provoking sickness.

  • Advantages: With these vaccines, the chance of an adverse reaction in the patient is much lower, because only a part or the original pathogen is injected into the body instead of the whole thing.
  • Disadvantages: Identifying the best antigens in the pathogen for training the immune system and then separating them is not always possible. Only certain vaccines can be produced in this way.
  • Specific Vaccines:
    • Hepatitis B
    • Influenza
    • Haemophilus Influenzae Type B (Hib)
    • Pertussis (part of DTaP combined immunization)
    • Pneumococcal
    • Human Papillomavirus (HPV)
    • Meningococcal
Toxoid Vaccines: Some bacterial diseases damage the body by secreting harmful chemicals or toxins. For these bacteria, scientists are able to "deactivate" some of the toxins using a mixture of formaldehyde and water. These dead toxins are then safely injected into the body. The immune system learns well enough from the dead toxins to fight off living toxins, should they ever make an appearance.

  • Specific Vaccines:
    • Diphtheria
    • Tetanus
Conjugate Vaccines: Some bacteria, like those of Hib disease, possess an outer coating of sugar molecules that camouflage their antigens and fool young immune systems. To get around this problem, scientists can link an antigen from another recognizable pathogen to the sugary coating of the camouflaged bacteria. As a result, the body's immune system learns to recognize the sugary camouflage itself as harmful and immediately attacks it and its carrier if it enters the body.

  • Specific Vaccines:
    • Haemophilus Influenzae Type B (Hib)
DNA Vaccines: Still in experimental stages, DNA vaccines would dispense with all unnecessary parts of a bacterium or virus and instead contain just an injection of a few parts of the pathogen's DNA. These DNA strands would instruct the immune system to produce antigens for combating the pathogen all by itself. As a result, these vaccines would be very efficient immune system trainers. They are also cheap and easy to produce.

  • Specific Vaccines: DNA vaccines for influenza and herpes are currently in human testing phases.
Recombinant Vector Vaccines: These experimental vaccines are similar to DNA vaccines in that they introduce DNA from a harmful pathogen into the body, triggering the immune system to produce antigens and train itself to identify and combat the disease. The difference is that these vaccines use an attenuated, or weakened, virus or bacterium as a ride, or vector, for the DNA. In essence, scientists are able to take a harmless pathogen, dress it in the DNA of a more dangerous disease, and train the body to recognize and fight both effectively.

  • Specific Vaccines: Recombinant vector vaccines for HIV, rabies, and measles are currently being developed.



Things that so far have proven resilient to any attempt to derive a vaccine for like HIV and Herpes are because of how the virus interacts with the body bypassing the advances in training the natural immune response. Remember the vaccine doesn't prevent you from the initial point of infection, it simply speeds up the body's response to the infection, which is the same response that happens naturally to subsequent infections by the same pathogen.

As for eradication of diseases, only smallpox has been declared eradicated by vaccination. 13 others have been significantly reduced in a number of countries but are not yet eradicated, all 13 of are not known to exist in a carrier state and thus once they are eradicated in the human population they should be gone.

In fact, smallpox vaccine was first created due to a less severe zoonotic strain cowpox which allowed for further development on vaccine research.

Influenza (common cause of the seasonal flu) requires a yearly shot and its effectiveness varies year to year depending on the strains that are prevalent in your area and the forecasted strains included in the yearly vaccination (6 months from when the commit decides now which strains to include to when made available). Influenza, like Corona, has several carrier animal populations and is highly zoonotic combined with high mutational evolution allows it to escape the immunity that is induced by prior infections or vaccinations. Here are some more links if you wish to dive deeper into how this works. The Evolution of seasonal influenza viruses, Comparison of the mutation rates of human influenza A and B Viruses, SARS-CoV-2 and influenza: a comparative overview and treatment implications.

The end result is Corona Virus which Covid19 is an offspring of has been around a long time, is highly mutable which creates a difficult obstacle to preventing and controlling by vaccination. Herd immunity was never about eradicating Covid19 but about reducing the severity of the infection in individuals and thus reducing long-term complications and death in the population. If the novel strain SARS-Cov-2 had been caught and not allowed to spread beyond Wuhan then it might have been eradicated as it would not have had a chance to infect animal carrier populations like the previous generation. But on a whole Corona will continue to infect animals and humans and produce new novel strains. Human Coronavirus Types People around the world commonly get infected with human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1. I will wager that list going forward will now include SARS-Cov-2 and 10 to 15% of the world's population will be infected by it on a semi-yearly basis and will not be able to tell the difference between it and Influenza. In a year or two as much as it frustrates me we will be back to people going to school and work sick and sharing their cold.
He's describing exactly what he said. Herd Immunity. You must have missed it.
As @Vavrik says, Hurd Immunity which we have been sold on the concept of since the first months of 2020.

For some varients the current generation vaccines have been able to reduce transmission to a powerful degree as they were able to prompt an immune response that dealt with the virus before the it could get a foothold and generate more virus in amounts that could then transmit. Delta is a side step, we will be able to react to with next gen vaccines I'm sure, to stop now when we have only acchieved lower serverity is like the sprinter who slows to bask in the glory of crossing the finish line only to have a competitor steam past them at full tilt and take the win. That competitor right now is Delta.

If someone told you Hurd Immunity was attainable but also allowed the vaccinated to still contract and pass on the virus, they are have likely been missinforned or are trying to blag their way out of their own misunderstanding. Effective immunity smothers the symptoms but allows infection, but it is Sterilising immunity which is needed for Herd Immunity as it's the thing that breaks the transmission chains, and that is what we have been sold since day one.

It's the reason the aim to vaccinate 70% of the population exists. That's the number needing to be vaccinated assuming a 100% sterility and transmission break. If the vaccines are only able to stop 90% of transmission that number of needed vaccinated persons goes up. If transmission reduction is as low as 25%, which those 4th July numbers seem to suggest it is, then no there will be no herd immunity and world leaders have been deluding themselves herd immunity we as ever a possibility. Which considering it was a Novel Virus and herd immunity was tabled right at the beginning, maybe they were?

I assume this is why the UK has scrapped all restrictions. Remove the deaths and serious illness risk with Effective immunisation then convince everyone to be infected as soon as possible so natural immunity can provide the Sterilising factor? Assumption thats what is happening and also an assumption natural immunity would even provide sterilising immunity, but hey it sounds about right, doesn't it?
 
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Bambooza

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As @Vavrik says, Hurd Immunity which we have been sold on the concept of since the first months of 2020.

For some varients the current generation vaccines have been able to reduce transmission to a powerful degree as they were able to prompt an immune response that dealt with the virus before the it could get a foothold and generate more virus in amounts that could then transmit. Delta is a side step, we will be able to react to with next gen vaccines I'm sure, to stop now when we have only acchieved lower serverity is like the sprinter who slows to bask in the glory of crossing the finish line only to have a competitor steam past them at full tilt and take the win. That competitor right now is Delta.

If someone told you Hurd Immunity was attainable but also allowed the vaccinated to still contract and pass on the virus, they are have likely been missinforned or are trying to blag their way out of their own misunderstanding. Effective immunity smothers the symptoms but allows infection, but it is Sterilising immunity which is needed for Herd Immunity as it's the thing that breaks the transmission chains, and that is what we have been sold since day one.

It's the reason the aim to vaccinate 70% of the population exists. That's the number needing to be vaccinated assuming a 100% sterility and transmission break. If the vaccines are only able to stop 90% of transmission that number of needed vaccinated persons goes up. If transmission reduction is as low as 25%, which those 4th July numbers seem to suggest it is, then no there will be no herd immunity and world leaders have been deluding themselves herd immunity we as ever a possibility. Which considering it was a Novel Virus and herd immunity was tabled right at the beginning, maybe they were?

I assume this is why the UK has scrapped all restrictions. Remove the deaths and serious illness risk with Effective immunisation then convince everyone to be infected as soon as possible so natural immunity can provide the Sterilising factor? Assumption thats what is happening and also an assumption natural immunity would even provide sterilising immunity, but hey it sounds about right, doesn't it?

Thank you for the clarification. Yes, Sterilising Immunity would be great but we currently do not have a vaccine that can achieve this with Covid19.

This article does a pretty good job of talking about covid19 inflection and the limitations of the current line of vaccinations.
  • As game-changing as the Pfizer vaccine (and Moderna's equally effective mRNA-1273 vaccine) may be in affording protection against the COVID-19 illness, the results do not reflect complete "sterilizing immunity."
  • Although the current vaccine candidates have demonstrated the ability the reduce symptoms and the number of viruses in the lower respiratory tract, there is as of yet no evidence of sterilizing immunity in the upper respiratory tract.
  • Even so, without a robust frontline defense at the site where COVID-19 enters the body—namely the mucosal tissues of the nose, throat, and upper respiratory tract—a potential for reinfection remains.
  • Sterilizing immunity remains the holy grail of COVID-19 vaccine research.

My goal would simply be to see the number of deaths go back down to near baseline for seasonal flu. Thus the typical number of yearly deaths caused by the influenza family of viruses and Corona family of viruses and not the large swell we saw last year. Not saying we shouldn't continue to fund research for a sterilizing immunity for covid19 as that breakthrough research would be a great stepping stone into both the whole corona family of viruses as well as influenza and reduce one more way that death comes for us. Then again there is a pessimistic part of me thinks that when you remove one way for death, other causes will step up and fill the gap. That raising the life expectancy of humans is far more challenging.

So no, I would say that Sterilising immunity would be the ultimate goal but it's not a realistic goal for the short term. That flattening the curve to reduce the overall burden on the medical system while not necessarily reducing the total number of deaths just spread it out over a longer time period was sufficient. It also gave time for a vaccine while not achieving Sterilising immunity does greatly reduce the complications of being infected and thus reducing the number of deaths. In all honestly, I did not think we would have gotten the vaccine so quickly I figured we would still be using older technology and be chasing mutations as we do with Influenza by generating Inactivated Vaccines which takes 6 months to a year from selecting the strain to include until it starts being made available for injection. And so we would just now be starting to roll out the vaccine instead of where we are with a huge percent of the world's population already fully vaccinated with a vaccine that is so far showing resilience to mutations.

As there needs to be a balance between flatting the curve possibly saving lives from covid19 and not completely destroying people's futures. As it stands the economic impact will be felt for years to come and I am not sure society can handle any more disruption without it spiraling into dark times.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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I thought Bojo was laughed out of the room because of his whole herd immunity strategy? He’s having another go at it then?
He was, but from what then subsequently happened since March 2020 it still very much appears to be part of the tool kit.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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I would say that Sterilising immunity would be the ultimate goal but it's not a realistic goal for the short term.
I think you need to go have a word with quite a few world leaders as they appear to be under a missaprehension.

The UK and Sweden for a start!
 

Bambooza

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I think you need to go have a word with quite a few world leaders as they appear to be under a missaprehension.

The UK and Sweden for a start!
Do you think they would listen? I honestly hope that the dichotomy between what the media is saying the leader's goals are and what is understood to be the limitations and what is being reported to them by the medical and scientific community are what they truly understand and are working within.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Tuesday 3rd of August:

- World: 199,251,741 confirmed cases and 4,241,509 confirmed deaths.

- World: International Monetary Fund approves largest injection of resource known as "Special Drawing Rights" in its history, at $650 billion: "The SDR allocation will benefit all members, address the long-term global need for reserves, build confidence, and foster the resilience and stability of the global economy. It will particularly help our most vulnerable countries struggling to cope with the impact of the Covid-19 crisis."

- Theraputics: Israel study suggests Ivermectin conbats COVID and reduces infectiousness: "Our study shows first and foremost that ivermectin has antiviral activity, it also shows that there is almost a 100% chance that a person will be noninfectious in four to six days, which could lead to shortening isolation time for these people. This could have a huge economic and social impact.”

- China: Wuhan to be blanket tested once again as cases discovered.

- UK: New daily deaths climb back over 100.

- UK: Scotland, and most restrictions to be lifted on 9th of August.

- UK: Northern Ireland, and Van Morrison drops legal battle against lockdown restrictions on live music described as a 'blanket ban', as the restriction has now been retired.

- US: Concerns are raised that the US is seeing more new daily cases than this time last year, considering Vaccines are now available and have been fully administered to half of the people in the country.

- US: Lindsey Graham becomes first senator to publicly advise they had a breakthrough case of COVID-19 after being vaccinated. They indicate thanks to the vaccination the symptoms were mild and would have been much worse without.

- US: Has now shipped over 110 million doses of vaccine via COVAX initiative.

- India: Vaccine production continues to see supply issues and some quality issues which still hampers the countries efforts to vaccinated its huge population.

- Nigeria/US: Receives donation of 4 million doses of vaccine from the USA.

- Australia: Data finds disadvantaged areas of Sydney suffer twice as many COVID cases than affluent ones.

- Australia: Sky News removes a raft of videos which contained unsubstantiated COVID theories following a 7 day content upload suspension for spreading misinformation.

- Pakistan: Administers 1 million vaccinations in a single day.

- Uzbekistan: Passes law to allow employers to suspend employees who have not been vaccinated.
 

Aramsolari

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In two weeks we shall see if the number of deaths also makes a new record or if we are on the other side of the pandemic.
Hoping it’s the latter of course.

By many accounts, the Delta variant isn’t necessarily more dangerous, it’s just more infectious.

Fingers crossed we don’t see any new mutations in the near future, there are still many letters left in the alphabet. ‘Nervous chuckle’ 😅
 

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In two weeks we shall see if the number of deaths also makes a new record or if we are on the other side of the pandemic.
We have become better and dealing with COVID, so Im hopeful we do not see the same increase in deaths like we did with the first spike.

The problem this time could seriously be lack of beds!
 

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We have become better and dealing with COVID, so Im hopeful we do not see the same increase in deaths like we did with the first spike.

The problem this time could seriously be lack of beds!
Yeah the lack of beds is gonna be a problem.

The other major problem is the suspension of many treatments due to hospitals being overwhelmed.

My partner's hospital suspended most elective surgeries during the lockdowns last year. That means any procedure that isn't life threatening. Imagine having to suspend a hip replacement or optical surgery because of Covid restrictions. Sure you won't die from delaying said treatments but you may very well suffer a permanent reduction of your quality of life.
 
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Bambooza

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It's not just the medical system being better at treating the seriously ill covid patients but as the number of people who have already been infected with other varients of covid or having been given the vaccine increases. They in turn are still susceptible to being infected and testing positive but having a greater reduction in symptoms. The other factor looks to be the age groups that are being infected this time and it's predominantly in the younger age brackets which have shown to have a much lower percentage of severe symptoms from the virus.

I have a feeling that these two factors will contribute to a significant reduction in the number of deaths per 100k and we should start seeing numbers similar to the seasonal flu.
 

Radegast74

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In two weeks we shall see if the number of deaths also makes a new record or if we are on the other side of the pandemic.
That's a false dichotomy.
#1, as @Montoya pointed out, we are much better at treating COVID than we were last year, and so deaths are not a good measure of the impact of the virus.

(And, you can't believe what is on the death certificate anyway...I've said that all along, here is a recent article that hammers that home:

#2, The Delta variant came from mutations of the original virus...if all we are brewing is a "better" mutation, then, we could be even more screwed 6 months from now.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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COVID Catharsis Corner - Reports from around the world from today, Wednesday 4th of August:

- World: 199,970,600 confirmed cases and 4,252,663 confirmed deaths.

- WHO: Asks nations to stop vaccinating children who are not vulnerable and delay booster shots so poorer nations can receive doses, asking for a goal of 10% of all nations populations to be vaccinated.

- UK: US think-tank The Commonwealth Fund ranks the National Health Service down from first in the world to fourth, behind Norway, the Netherlands and Australia following the perpetuating fallout and build up of care needing to be given on non-Pandemic related issues which were suspended and built up over the course of the crisis.

- UK: To extend vaccination to 16 and 17 year olds.

- UK: Makers of Barbie, Mattel, create a doll of Sarah Gilbert, the scientist who designed the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, as part of a six doll set showcasing women in science, technology, engineering and other key sectors.

- UK: Research indicates children who catch COVID symptomatically generally recover within a week making Long Covid in the kids a rarity only happening occasionally.

- UK: Study data reveals double vaccinated people 3 times less likely to test positive for COVID than unvaccinated: "These findings confirm our previous data showing that both doses of a vaccine offer good protection against getting infected. However we can also see that there is still a risk of infection, as no vaccine is 100% effective, and we know that some double vaccinated people can still become ill from the virus."

- US: Eviction ban extended in modified form at 11th hour.

- US: Former president Obama reigns back plans for 60th birthday celebrations due to COVID-19.

- China: Seals off city of Zhangjiajie as it becomes hot-spot.

- China: Implements travel restrictions as Delta outbreak continues.

- Russia: Makers of SputnikV vaccine pledge to sort out production issues following complaints from several customers of delivery delays.
 
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Bambooza

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That's a false dichotomy.
#1, as @Montoya pointed out, we are much better at treating COVID than we were last year, and so deaths are not a good measure of the impact of the virus.

(And, you can't believe what is on the death certificate anyway...I've said that all along, here is a recent article that hammers that home:

#2, The Delta variant came from mutations of the original virus...if all we are brewing is a "better" mutation, then, we could be even more screwed 6 months from now.
Sort of better, but not in numbers that would be statistically significant. Mostly it was within the first few months that doctors were unsure how to proceed but by the northern hemisphere, they had found workable treatment options. Mostly this has to do with respirators and not putting covid patents on them unless there was no other way to get their O2 saturation close to where it needs to be as they found that the high pressure of the respirator was significantly damaging the lung tissue of covid patents. So yes there was some improvement in treatment options but most of that was done within the first few months and so it's more beneficial to scale data against the oct, nov, dec, jan range than back at the start. This also addresses the death certificates as well as there has been introduced a standard way of claiming death by covid complications which have also been in effect since early last year. While there is still the possibility of some under/over reporting of death by covid complications it's much more accurate and in fact the gap between projected and reported now much closer match each other when adjusting for covid and its impacts on yearly averages.

So it's not a false dichotomy, while the data is not perfect nor will it ever be it's fairly accurate and much more so than it was for the first four months of last year. So yes if we were still in the first four months of last year you would have a point on it being not a great picture of what is happening, while I would challenge it would still be better than attempting to use positive test cases both would have had a fair amount of error. In fact, this is still a major issue with attempting to use positive tests per day as any sort of trend given the percent of positive test cases to total test given per day is still far too high to give any sort of reasonable expectation of the percent of the population in an area that is infected. One last thing about the death rates is we have years prior of average deaths in the country that can be compared to the current count and any point that is above the average can be attributed to covid.
 
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Aramsolari

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It's not just the medical system being better at treating the seriously ill covid patients but as the number of people who have already been infected with other varients of covid or having been given the vaccine increases. They in turn are still susceptible to being infected and testing positive but having a greater reduction in symptoms. The other factor looks to be the age groups that are being infected this time and it's predominantly in the younger age brackets which have shown to have a much lower percentage of severe symptoms from the virus.

I have a feeling that these two factors will contribute to a significant reduction in the number of deaths per 100k and we should start seeing numbers similar to the seasonal flu.
That’s a silver lining for sure, the medical system being better at treating people. One of the issues we’ll have to tackle next is how to care for people who’ve had COVID.

I was chatting with my friend’s mom last weekend. She kinda checks all the boxes for someone who would be hit hard by COVID. She’s overweight, has respiratory problems, and is black (Covid’s hitting the black community hard for some reason). Her husband and son got it as well but they weren’t hit nearly as hard. She ended up being hospitalized (my partner was actually one of her nurses lol)

Anyway she has hit with COVID last fall when treatment was already getting better but vaccines still aren’t widely available yet. Chatting with her she told me she still finds it difficult to breath. The doctor says she still has severe lung tissue scarring and it’ll be with her for awhile.

Lovely lady but folks like her will be dealing with COVID’s after effects for months if not years.

Sucks but that’s something I’m hoping we move on to….that we’re at a point where we’ll become less worried about people dying and more interested in helping people recover when they do get COVID.
 
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- China: Seals off city of Zhangjiajie as it becomes hot-spot.

Zhangjiajie , a population of 1.48 million as of 2010, I can only assume its grown since then.

And from the news article I read:
"The city ordered residential communities sealed Sunday, preventing people from leaving their homes. In a subsequent order on Tuesday, officials said no one, whether tourist or resident, could leave the city."
 
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Radegast74

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A long the line of "there are no atheists in foxholes" and "there are no anti-firefighters when your house is burning down"...
 
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