China can make numbers up all day... The WORLD does not trust China, nor should it. They have NOT been good world citizens, so HELL NO, people are NOT going to get on a airplane and fly to Wuhan. China can reap what it has sown.
Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread
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Radegast74
Space Marshal
I think I had posted a news story about this earlier, here is the CDC's MMWR report:
www.cdc.gov
Gist of the report, in a single picture:
High SARS-CoV-2 Attack Rate Following Exposure at a Choir Practice ...
On March 17, 2020, a member of a Skagit County, Washington, choir informed Skagit County Public Health (SCPH) that several members of the 122-member choir had become ill.
www.cdc.gov
Gist of the report, in a single picture:
That is a very interesting response.
Do you honor the dead by being asymptomatic and spreading the virus which can potentially kill more Americans?
I went to the store yesterday to get some steaks. I wore a mask. I did not wear the mask because I am scared, nor do I fear getting sick.
Statistically if I get infected, I will be fine. I may even be infected right now and not even know it.
I wore a mask because I did not want to cough on something, then 20min later some 80yr old granny comes to buy some Cheerios box that I contaminated, and ends up dying a week later.
Its just courtesy because I have no idea if Im asymptomatic or not, and neither do you.
You can honor the living right now by simply not pretending that the virus does not exist.
Radegast74
Space Marshal
Speaking of masks, I thought that it would be a nice merch item to have a TEST mask.
The problem, though, is that if the TEST logo is big enough, the yellow "ball" on a black background is just going to look like we are wearing a bondage gag, or something rude like that...
Maybe we could have the logo tiled on the mask, or, cascading? Just a thought....
How is this a problem?
No problem, we can chat about it all day long about if we agree or not but it's happening either way, so no reason not to look and see what happens. It won't be months, maybe years, until we can see the true impact but it's seems the deaths above average may be the best indicator we have as to the true impact on the population - we just don't have the capacity to test 100% of the population to see if they have/had it or not.
As the government has advised we need them, Mrs 'BobFace built us some.
"What fabric would you like?" she asks.
Me:
How I deal with death, and how you deal with death is a personal choice, just like religion.
I would say it has to do with respect and what kind of world you want your children to live in. The decisions you make (all of us) will point us to our final conclusion.
So hide. Stay home. Don't do shit. You can sit on your computer and shame everyone. Point out how everyone else is so stupid. That is easy.
Or you can acknowledge the problem exists, protect yourself and others when you can and enjoy life. Its up to you (individual). Stop trying to shame everyone into buying your logic.
@NaffNaffBobFace
Here is some interesting info for you.
Colorado has made a stunning and significant change to the way it counts COVID-19 deaths that reduced the statewide figure from more than 1,000 to 878, according to a report.
The change came after Colorado’s Department of Public Health admitted that its COVID-19 death toll was counting those who tested positive for the coronavirus but had died of other causes, Fox 31 Denver reported late Friday.
The department now says 1,150 Coloradoans who died had COVID-19 but only 878 of those deaths were “due to” COVID-19.
Here is some interesting info for you.
Colorado has made a stunning and significant change to the way it counts COVID-19 deaths that reduced the statewide figure from more than 1,000 to 878, according to a report.
The change came after Colorado’s Department of Public Health admitted that its COVID-19 death toll was counting those who tested positive for the coronavirus but had died of other causes, Fox 31 Denver reported late Friday.
The department now says 1,150 Coloradoans who died had COVID-19 but only 878 of those deaths were “due to” COVID-19.
Interesting, but confusing...? If someone has something like a heart condition which is otherwise managed with medication and COVID-19 weakens them to the point the condition can trigger a heart attack and finises them off, is it counted as COVID-19 or is it counted as the heart condition? Without COVID, they would have otherwise stayed alive with medication.
Inversely not everyone carrying COVID dies from it, if a person showing no symptoms is hit by a train and tests positive, did the virus have anything to do with it?
In this case, as it's hospital confirmed cases, one presumes they are in hospital being treated for illness - as in they were either weakened and another condition took hold, or COVID was strong enough to cause their admittance in the first place.
In the UK it has been found a third of all hospitalised victims were diabetic who I presume were otherwise living with the condition and managing it with medication. We could drop the number of fatalities in the UK by 16,000 if we just said they died of diabetes rather than the pandemic that they contracted and weakened them to the point of death from the other condition...? Actually, if most COVID sufferers actually die from pneumonia, should we be counting them as having died from COVID if it is only weakening them, not killing them...?
I'm not sure these figures are going to be accurate either way we look at them?
Do we know what the current Colorado death rate is compared to the 5 year average? That seems to be the most reliable overview of the impact of the Corona Virus right now - it doesn't necessarily matter what finished a victim off, if they were weakened to the point of death by COVID it's that virus that bought them to that point: A drunk crashes his car and dies. Was he killed in a DUI or was he killed in a car crash?
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I said this back on Oct 2nd. You can slice and dice data to your hearts content.
Workbook: COHID Full Death Query_State Demography Pop Estimates
If you read, or google the information it will tell you exactly how they come to their conclusions.
ex
*The number of cases includes people who have had a test that indicated they were positive for COVID-19. The number of cases also includes epidemiologically-linked cases -- or cases where public health epidemiologists have determined that infection is highly likely because a person exhibited symptoms and had close contact with someone who tested positive. The number of epidemiologically-linked cases represents a very small portion of the reported cases.
Cases reported on April 23 were in part due to a large number of backlogged tests being received from Quest.
You may notice that the cumulative number of deaths went from 674 on April 24th, to 672 on April 25th. This is due to the fact that a portion of "probable deaths" gathered from death certificate data were entered as duplicates. There were about 29 duplicates and they have been removed.
**The total number of people tested may not include all negative results.
Cool, that's how to find the 5 year average but I'm still having trouble locating the total to date for 2020. I can see 2019 had 39,313 so that's the latest, it'd be grand if we could have a monthly breakdown too to see if any spike is in relation to a quiet/active part of the year like winter where it's generally higher. It'd be interesting to see if the 2020 data is in line with that or if it's up by only 800/1500 or if it's up by 5k, 10k, 20k...?
New UK numbers for today 16th May:
Total confirmed 240,161 with 3,451 new, total dead 34,466 with 468 new.
The current status is bought to us by the headline that the funding for homeless rough sleepers has not been renewed leading to concerns that the hugely successful scheme may be coning to an end while the contagion still rages:
The status outlook is, of course, if that ends up being correct and rough sleepers have to go back to living on the streets. The government response is the funding was to be taken from other funding provided for the stability of those councils during the crisis. That does, though, leave it to councils to prioritize what is most urgent rather than having a dedicated fund for the scheme if I understand this right? If correct I'd read that as shifting the blame...?
Colorado update:
Total confirmed 240,161 with 3,451 new, total dead 34,466 with 468 new.
The current status is bought to us by the headline that the funding for homeless rough sleepers has not been renewed leading to concerns that the hugely successful scheme may be coning to an end while the contagion still rages:
Coronavirus: Funding for rough sleepers' emergency scheme to end
The government will cease funding for a scheme to help homeless people in the Covid-19 pandemic.
www.bbc.co.uk
The status outlook is, of course, if that ends up being correct and rough sleepers have to go back to living on the streets. The government response is the funding was to be taken from other funding provided for the stability of those councils during the crisis. That does, though, leave it to councils to prioritize what is most urgent rather than having a dedicated fund for the scheme if I understand this right? If correct I'd read that as shifting the blame...?
Colorado update:
We are not on the same page.
The most difficult part of online debates or arguments is making sure we are understanding what the other person is actually saying.
No matter what I type, you see it as me attempting to shame you and insult your intelligence.
Let me be clear on these two things, I am not calling you stupid, and I am not trying to shame you.
What I am trying to do is understand at what point, if ever, you would consider wearing a mask if it meant there was a chance it could save a life.
Its not "my" logic.
Its just logic.
By saying that its "my" logic, you implication is that there is a different set of rules that can apply and be just as good as the ones I chose.
That is demonstrably incorrect.
One of these charts is Norway, the other is Sweden, guess which is which?
Opening up and removing restrictions is not an experiment with varied outcomes. The experiment has been done, we have the data.
Let me end off with something we can agree upon.
The lock down was never meant to last for long, our goal was the flatten the curve. Lock downs are meant to be lifted as soon as we see that the hospitals are not going to be overrun. Many of the States have reached this point already. For most of them which are over the peak rate of new cases, re-opening should be happening, but it DOES NOT MEAN WE ARE IN THE CLEAR! The virus is still out there and thousands of people are still going to get infected in the coming months, the only difference being that the ICU is not going run out of beds like Italy.
Wearing a mask in populated areas can save a life. Its as simple as that.
Completely unscientific but just look at the difference between Asia and Europe/America.
Many Asian countries have a history of wearing masks long before this whole Covid19 thing came about. Japan, Hong Kong, much of Southeast Asia etc. If you're visibly sick and don't wear a mask, you're socially ostracized. Even if you're not visibly sick, you still wear one because it's the socially accepted thing to do (That an air pollution in many of these countries is terrible!). I suppose there's a cultural difference. Western countries value personal freedoms while Asian societies value society over the individual. The Common Good if you will.
I'm not saying one culture is superior to the other, far from it. I believe individual freedoms cultivate innovation and creativity. That being said, it is clearly evident that they're handling Covid19 better than we are. It's not just richer countries like South Korea and Singapore either. Even countries like Vietnam and Thailand are recovering. I have friends and family in that region and many of these countries are reporting new cases in the single and low double digits with no new deaths.
Something to consider I suppose.
Radegast74
Space Marshal
Well here is some more disturbing news...I've seen reports before of patients catching the disease TWICE, but the documentation was spotty, not sure whether to believe it or not. Now, however, this seems to be high quality info:
www.sfchronicle.com
5 sailors aboard Roosevelt carrier retest positive for coronavirus a 2nd time
In an alarming development, five Theodore Roosevelt sailors who had purportedly healed...
Shows again the problems with asymptomatic transmission, and the NEED for contact tracing and testing, testing. and more testing:
The worst case scenario: you catch the disease, have crippled lung functioning as a result, and then lather, rinse, repeat, until you finally die from the virus the nth time you get it. Of course, this still needs more investigation, and usually the worst case scenario is never as bad as I can imagine, but, still...there still is more we don't know about this disease than we do know.
I wear a mask... I do not understand why you keep saying I don't... that is my confusion and I want everyone to wear a mask responsibly. I do not understand what we are debating.
I do agree with the statement that it is hard to communicate online. I try to avoid chatting at work because I do come off as gruff when I do not mean to. Sorry to everyone on this thread if I sometimes sound mean.
So... ColdDog (Tom) is saying wear your fricken mask when you are around strangers or shopping. If you are not sure on how to wear a mask please consult the CDC website for instructions. This is my public message just so there is no confusion.
Also, like a condom, masks have benefits for now. They can feel uncomfortable and fog up your glasses... they suck, but it is better than the alternatives at this point.
Hope we're all clear here, by the way I am not angry... I am smiling as I write this.
A critique of Neil Ferguson’s (the Imperial College) pandemic model
A few weeks ago our party assembled a team to audit pandemic models that are being used to inform public policy. Team members have a mathematics and programming background, enabling them to examine whether these...
This is how NOT to build a data model.
Methodological issues
The Imperial College paper was not peer reviewed. The simulation and programming that it relies on has not yet been published in the public domain. Given that its recommendations were at variance with the then prevailing policy in the UK, a very low bar seems to have been set by the international scientific community on its wide acceptance. In retrospect, emergency situations like this pandemic should require a far higher – and not lower – level of scrutiny since policy responses on the basis of such papers can have huge financial and health impacts.
Further, while it is not a shortcoming of the paper per se, an issue has emerged regarding the democratic political process. Apart from our political party, no party in India or elsewhere seems to have asked serious questions about this or other models. This suggests a need for democracies to strengthen their critical thinking capacity by creating an independent “Black Hat” institution whose purpose would be to question any technical (mathematical) foundations of government decisions.
Neil Ferguson's Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time
The boss of a top software firm asks why the Government failed to get a second opinion from a computer scientist
Problem here @Montoya, is you hear to what you want to hear. So, here is the entire conversation.
Look, it does not matter... I have made my public announcement to wear face masks. I bowed to the Authoritarian regime and our dear leader @Montoya (although you may think its cool, until you have to live in it). I am saying this joking and smiling.