Coronavirus COVID-19 Thread

Bambooza

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I am Canadian eh. I only live in Texas cuz my wife doesn't do snow (or mountains apparently). I keep pointing to BC, she never responds but keeps pointing to the sky with her middle finger. I think she's afraid of mountains.
Mmmm Whistier.

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Such a beautiful place.

I have to admit of all the cities I have been to around the world Toronto is my favorite and Vancouver is my second. Never thought about moving there but they are a favorite place to take trips to. Of course, I cannot imagine living in a place where I cannot see or be in the mountains.

I can't comment without sacrificing my impartiality however I will say that is an incredibly polite way to put it 😆
Looks like they had some key players who stepped in to form a company and take advantage of the sweet government-funded contracts. It does make one wonder if there were some under-the-table kickbacks for political favors.
 

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Jolly_Green_Giant

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Maybe someone posted this, I couldn't find anything in the last couple pages.

I came across this Harvard study and some related articles that attempt to explain what it means. The mother jones article is just assuming people think the entire utility of the study is to reinforce a narrative that vaccines are useless. I think the article is trash but there it is, I couldn't find too many others writing about it. The NPR article does a better job of explaining it, but it mostly focuses on Israel.


It's stuff like this that "vaccine hesitant" people point to. Here you have a study that does tell you vaccines alone arent the answer. That gives people an out. "The news is telling me I need the vaccine, but this HARVARD STUDY says vaccines don't protect you 100%." People don't have the time and wont take the time to break down what that study means.



I do like the summary at the end of the paper:

"In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus."
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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Maybe someone posted this, I couldn't find anything in the last couple pages.

I came across this Harvard study and some related articles that attempt to explain what it means. The mother jones article is just assuming people think the entire utility of the study is to reinforce a narrative that vaccines are useless. I think the article is trash but there it is, I couldn't find too many others writing about it. The NPR article does a better job of explaining it, but it mostly focuses on Israel.








It's stuff like this that "vaccine hesitant" people point to. Here you have a study that does tell you vaccines alone arent the answer. That gives people an out. "The news is telling me I need the vaccine, but this HARVARD STUDY says vaccines don't protect you 100%." People don't have the time and wont take the time to break down what that study means.



I do like the summary at the end of the paper:

"In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus."
It's the difference between infection rates and hospitalisation rates, isn't it?

With the knowledge we have that Vaccines are not sterilising (killing the virus off before it can reach an infectious level), only making COVID survivable or not noticeable at all if you have it, people who have not been vaccinated should be very, very concerned that infection rates in highly vaccinated places are not seeing reductions in infections, only reductions in hospitalisations and deaths...

It means no herd immunity. It means they are even less safe than they were when everyone was jumping at their own shadows washing their hands every 20 minutes and staying 2 meters away from each other. It means everyone who feels having had a vaccine means they are now able to go back to 'Normal' and don't keep their distance from each other anymore is another chance to pass it on to those who choose not to vaccinate - and those who can't vaccinate for medical reasons.
 

Jolly_Green_Giant

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It's the difference between infection rates and hospitalisation rates, isn't it?

With the knowledge we have that Vaccines are not sterilising (killing the virus off before it can reach an infectious level), only making COVID survivable or not noticeable at all if you have it, people who have not been vaccinated should be very, very concerned that infection rates in highly vaccinated places are not seeing reductions in infections, only reductions in hospitalisations and deaths...

It means no herd immunity. It means they are even less safe than they were when everyone was jumping at their own shadows washing their hands every 20 minutes and staying 2 meters away from each other. It means everyone who feels having had a vaccine means they are now able to go back to 'Normal' and don't keep their distance from each other anymore is another chance to pass it on to those who choose not to vaccinate - and those who can't vaccinate for medical reasons.
I agree. Once you're vaccinated, its really easy to get complacent. I don't go out much at all, and I still wash my hands 5 times a day, but I can see how easy it is to act like you're invincible once you're vaxxed.
 

Aramsolari

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Mmmm Whistier.

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Such a beautiful place.

I have to admit of all the cities I have been to around the world Toronto is my favorite and Vancouver is my second. Never thought about moving there but they are a favorite place to take trips to. Of course, I cannot imagine living in a place where I cannot see or be in the mountains.



Looks like they had some key players who stepped in to form a company and take advantage of the sweet government-funded contracts. It does make one wonder if there were some under-the-table kickbacks for political favors.
Whistler's nice but hella expensive.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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I agree. Once you're vaccinated, its really easy to get complacent. I don't go out much at all, and I still wash my hands 5 times a day, but I can see how easy it is to act like you're invincible once you're vaxxed.
I go to my local shop once every couple of days. Up until August people were still keeping distance and wearing masks. Now, it's litterally me and the person behind the counter still wearing masks.
 

Bambooza

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I go to my local shop once every couple of days. Up until August people were still keeping distance and wearing masks. Now, it's litterally me and the person behind the counter still wearing masks.
Honestly, it was fully expected. The longer the pandemic goes on the fewer people are going to be mindful of spreading a virus around. Think back to people's behavior prior to 2018 and the seasonal flu. How many covered their mouth or sneezed into their elbow, stayed home when they had flu-like symptoms, or even kept their children home when they were running a fever? How many of us wash our hands after going to the bathroom let alone before eating a meal or touching our face? The majority of people were originally scared of this new form of death and so took extra precautions to protect themselves and in fact, the vaccine offered an easy perceived way out of forced habits and a path back to normalcy. The end result is people are surprisingly capable of turning adverse conditions into normalcy and going about their day not worrying about what might or will kill them.
 

NaffNaffBobFace

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Honestly, it was fully expected. The longer the pandemic goes on the fewer people are going to be mindful of spreading a virus around. Think back to people's behavior prior to 2018 and the seasonal flu. How many covered their mouth or sneezed into their elbow, stayed home when they had flu-like symptoms, or even kept their children home when they were running a fever? How many of us wash our hands after going to the bathroom let alone before eating a meal or touching our face? The majority of people were originally scared of this new form of death and so took extra precautions to protect themselves and in fact, the vaccine offered an easy perceived way out of forced habits and a path back to normalcy. The end result is people are surprisingly capable of turning adverse conditions into normalcy and going about their day not worrying about what might or will kill them.
I think a bit of the cause of this, in my part of the world at least, was the whole Herd Immunity concept that was latched on to and fixated on beyond all else. Added to that, when the initial vaccine rollout caused the death rate to drop infection numbers were ignored and all attention was then turned to getting back to 'business as usual', even going so far as to demand businesses recalled office workers to return to their blocks even if working from home had worked for them and their employers.

The vaccines not granting sterilising immunity, something I didn't know about and I don't doubt most people didn't even have a concept of before this pandemic, really came out of left-field and knocked all that faith in herd immunity on its ass. It didn't exist, not with naturally acquired immunity which waned too fast and at least not in this generation of vaccines which as stated didn't lead enough immune systems to a point of being able to sterilise - for a large part although they protected the individual, they could not protect the society.

The problem, at least where I am, is that once a strategies foundations are sunk into the ground and a response is built off a concept of Herd Immunity, we are stuck with that being the foundation all other actions branch off. Even though Herd Immunity it is now known to be a myth and won't happen, it's still the crumbly rotten core at the bottom of the wall with all the other bricks piled up upon it. The lack of precaution, the encouragement of spread, the continuing lackadaisical response to events even now, proceeding in a reactive manner rather than a proactive manner, is all harking back to that first fatalistic set of descensions to just roll over and let it wash over us.

If one were to compare it to a war with an invading force coming in to a country, the leaders and decision makers basically threw open the gates and lay flowers and loaves of bread on the road to greet the advancing tanks with smiles and applause. The metric for failure was the health system being overwealmed, the only thing that prompted action was attempts to avoid overloading a system which had been neglected to whither for decades.

And don't get me started on the "There is no evidence for Precaution X so we won't even try until there is established evidence, but no one is going to fund that research so pass a hat around if you want us to look into it but don't you dare do Precaution X personally just in case because it might do you more harm than good, yes technically we don't have any evidence for that statement either but we're not going to spend any time to research that... just trust us it'll do you more harm than good don't do it and if you do don't come crying to us about it". Absurd when you look at it from a distance, isn't it?

Perhaps the war analogy is a bit too over the top of a way to word it, but in essence the battle was over before it had even begun. At least, that's how it looks where I am. How'd it go your end?
 

Bambooza

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I think a bit of the cause of this, in my part of the world at least, was the whole Herd Immunity concept that was latched on to and fixated on beyond all else. Added to that, when the initial vaccine rollout caused the death rate to drop infection numbers were ignored and all attention was then turned to getting back to 'business as usual', even going so far as to demand businesses recalled office workers to return to their blocks even if working from home had worked for them and their employers.

The vaccines not granting sterilising immunity, something I didn't know about and I don't doubt most people didn't even have a concept of before this pandemic, really came out of left-field and knocked all that faith in herd immunity on its ass. It didn't exist, not with naturally acquired immunity which waned too fast and at least not in this generation of vaccines which as stated didn't lead enough immune systems to a point of being able to sterilise - for a large part although they protected the individual, they could not protect the society.

The problem, at least where I am, is that once a strategies foundations are sunk into the ground and a response is built off a concept of Herd Immunity, we are stuck with that being the foundation all other actions branch off. Even though Herd Immunity it is now known to be a myth and won't happen, it's still the crumbly rotten core at the bottom of the wall with all the other bricks piled up upon it. The lack of precaution, the encouragement of spread, the continuing lackadaisical response to events even now, proceeding in a reactive manner rather than a proactive manner, is all harking back to that first fatalistic set of descensions to just roll over and let it wash over us.

If one were to compare it to a war with an invading force coming in to a country, the leaders and decision makers basically threw open the gates and lay flowers and loaves of bread on the road to greet the advancing tanks with smiles and applause. The metric for failure was the health system being overwealmed, the only thing that prompted action was attempts to avoid overloading a system which had been neglected to whither for decades.

And don't get me started on the "There is no evidence for Precaution X so we won't even try until there is established evidence, but no one is going to fund that research so pass a hat around if you want us to look into it but don't you dare do Precaution X personally just in case because it might do you more harm than good, yes technically we don't have any evidence for that statement either but we're not going to spend any time to research that... just trust us it'll do you more harm than good don't do it and if you do don't come crying to us about it". Absurd when you look at it from a distance, isn't it?

Perhaps the war analogy is a bit too over the top of a way to word it, but in essence the battle was over before it had even begun. At least, that's how it looks where I am. How'd it go your end?

No, vaccines are not granting sterilizing immunity but they are working well at reducing complications, so does natural immunity (well for the 97% who survive). So the question then becomes how do you navigate a virus that is not going to go away. Do you attempt to lock away your population from each other for years with the hope that the virus eventually burns itself out or do you drum up the limited protection that is available as being far more than it is in the hopes to quell the masses fear and get them to venture back outside and contributing to the economy so that it doesn't crash and leave the population in a worse place? While a percentage of the population can do their job in isolation there is a vast majority of the jobs that still require the individual to be physically present. While social distancing and other precautions to flatten the curve was helpful in reducing the spread of the virus prior to the introduction of a vaccine, is it still helpful or is it just dragging out the inevitable? While there are lots of places in this world that do not yet have enough vaccinations and are struggling to procure them lots of countries are to the point where those who are not vaccinated are not for personal reasons and not because they can't find a place to secure one. Perhaps at this point, it's time to just say enough and take off the mask let those who are not vaccinated be triage and treated with basic tent medical facilities (ie bed and iv, no vent, or other specialized treatments) and go back to pre-pandemic normal. The only way to have stopped this variant of covid would have been before it left Wuhan. Now it's far too widespread and protected in countless animal pools there is no eradicating it and new strains will pop yearly much like influenza.
 

Vavrik

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The vaccines not granting sterilising immunity, something I didn't know about and I don't doubt most people didn't even have a concept of before this pandemic, really came out of left-field and knocked all that faith in herd immunity on its ass. It didn't exist, not with naturally acquired immunity which waned too fast and at least not in this generation of vaccines which as stated didn't lead enough immune systems to a point of being able to sterilise - for a large part although they protected the individual, they could not protect the society.
There's kind of a hint about that when the immunity granted by "most vaccines" (all vaccines) is "somewhat less" than 100%. The flu vaccine hovers around 50% (40% on a year they miss the mix, 60% when they get it right). The other thing they got hugely wrong was herd immunity. You don't reach herd immunity by getting sick. What you get is full hospitals and full morgs, and if the stars line up just so - you get an epidemic in a country or region, or pandemic (global impact). You get herd immunity by getting vaccinated. People can still get sick, but those who have been vaccinated have less severe illness.
That is why you should get vaccinated.
Also
Less severe illness means that there is a better chance that you are shedding less of the pathogen. That means that even if you do get infected by a virus, there's a pretty good chance you won't spread it to others. The problem with COVID-19 is, unlike flu which has symptoms inside of a day of infection, sometimes in hours... COVID can linger under your immune system's radar for 4 to 21 days before you get a single symptom. In the mean time, you have family, go get the groceries, go to work, go to Church, take a walk in the park... and you are infecting people around you. If you're vaccinated, the number of virus particles you shed is lower than it otherwise would be - so you won't infect so many.

Perhaps at this point, it's time to just say enough and take off the mask let those who are not vaccinated be triage and treated with basic tent medical facilities (ie bed and iv, no vent, or other specialized treatments) and go back to pre-pandemic normal.
We actually can't afford it. Not just the US, but it's the same almost everywhere. There is a huge spike coming in the cost of health care insurance, and whether it's paid by individual taxpayers, or individual consumers (if you're in the US, you pay both) costs are going up.
 

Bambooza

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There's kind of a hint about that when the immunity granted by "most vaccines" (all vaccines) is "somewhat less" than 100%. The flu vaccine hovers around 50% (40% on a year they miss the mix, 60% when they get it right). The other thing they got hugely wrong was herd immunity. You don't reach herd immunity by getting sick. What you get is full hospitals and full morgs, and if the stars line up just so - you get an epidemic in a country or region, or pandemic (global impact). You get herd immunity by getting vaccinated. People can still get sick, but those who have been vaccinated have less severe illness.
That is why you should get vaccinated.
Also
Less severe illness means that there is a better chance that you are shedding less of the pathogen. That means that even if you do get infected by a virus, there's a pretty good chance you won't spread it to others. The problem with COVID-19 is, unlike flu which has symptoms inside of a day of infection, sometimes in hours... COVID can linger under your immune system's radar for 4 to 21 days before you get a single symptom. In the mean time, you have family, go get the groceries, go to work, go to Church, take a walk in the park... and you are infecting people around you. If you're vaccinated, the number of virus particles you shed is lower than it otherwise would be - so you won't infect so many.
Not sure how the idea you don't reach herd immunity by getting sick when it's been the only way since the dawn of time. All vaccines do is allow us to take a shortcut to the same end result in having a trained immune system without having the higher risk of fighting off an initial active infection. While vaccines do not come without their own risks they typically are far less risky than going without. The rest of what you said is spot on and I think really needs to be hammered home.

We actually can't afford it. Not just the US, but it's the same almost everywhere. There is a huge spike coming in the cost of health care insurance, and whether it's paid by individual taxpayers, or individual consumers (if you're in the US, you pay both) costs are going up.
Not sure anyone can afford it, either way, pay from the reduction in GDP or the spike in medical costs. Then again there is no reason why covid patients need the Bently medical treatment. As much as it would be upsetting to those placed in medical tents and offered basic care and not given every possible treatment, it would reduce the cost, at the cost of losing some who could have been saved.
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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Not sure how the idea you don't reach herd immunity by getting sick when it's been the only way since the dawn of time.
It's just dawned on me: I believe the thing that you are referring to, which has indeed been used since the dawn of time, is called "Evolution" not 'herd immunity'.

Its where a species looses the weak/susceptible parts of its population to something, like a virus, and those left then continue to populate the species with their genetic imperviousness/incompatibility to whatever killed off the susceptible members. It's survival of the fittest and takes Generations, not years, and won't work on COVID anyway.
 
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Vavrik

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Not sure how the idea you don't reach herd immunity by getting sick when it's been the only way since the dawn of time. All vaccines do is allow us to take a shortcut to the same end result in having a trained immune system without having the higher risk of fighting off an initial active infection. While vaccines do not come without their own risks they typically are far less risky than going without. The rest of what you said is spot on and I think really needs to be hammered home.
The term has an interesting history. Originates in the US, with a large animal veterinary scientist by the name of Potter, in 1916. There had been an outbreak of a pathogen called brucellosis in cattle in the late 19th and early 20th century, became such a problem in the 1910's Potter had started to study it. During that work, Potter coined the term "Herd immunity" in a paper he wrote in 1916. It was adopted to describe human immunity by a scientist (I can never remember his name) in 1923, while reviewing the 1918/1919 pandemic.

Read this article. All the juicy details. It's actually interesting..
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-67362031924-3/fulltext
 
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NaffNaffBobFace

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The term has an interesting history. Originates in the US, with a large animal veterinary scientist by the name of Potter, in 1916. There had been an outbreak of a pathogen called brucellosis in cattle in the late 19th and early 20th century, became such a problem in the 1910's Potter had started to study it. During that work, Potter coined the term "Herd immunity" in a paper he wrote in 1916. It was adopted to describe human immunity by a scientist (I can never remember his name) in 1923, while reviewing the 1918/1919 pandemic.

Read this article. All the juicy details. It's actually interesting.... meh... it's just a link to a Lancet article.
Hugely interesting read, I find it enlightening the original use and implementation of the word was in relation to cattle animals which have no freedom of movement and a severely limited herd population size. I could imagine Hurd Immunity in a population of only a few hundred strong which doesn't interact with other populations is achievable. To do that with humans you'd need... well, you'd need to limit population sizes to cells of only a few hundred and limit their movement, wouldn't you?
 
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Vavrik

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Hugely interesting read, I find it enlightening the original use of the word was in relation to cattle animals which have no freedom of movement and a severely limited population size. I could imagine Hurd Immunity in a population of only a few hundred strong which doesn't interact with other populations is achievable. To do that with humans you'd need... well, you'd need to limit population sizes to cells of only a few hundred and limit their movement, wouldn't you?
Thank you! Humans are Great Apes so smaller groups, maybe extended family size, a few dozen in a village or cave. That's how we evolved. We didn't get pandemics until civilization hit us... who knows that might be a pandemic too. Some virus infected us, and made us live in or around densely populated areas in population densities so dense it could infect us at will. We know that something like that happened more than once, our DNA contains the evidence.

Interesting stuff to think about.
 

Bambooza

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Hugely interesting read, I find it enlightening the original use and implementation of the word was in relation to cattle animals which have no freedom of movement and a severely limited herd population size. I could imagine Hurd Immunity in a population of only a few hundred strong which doesn't interact with other populations is achievable. To do that with humans you'd need... well, you'd need to limit population sizes to cells of only a few hundred and limit their movement, wouldn't you?
Sort of.

It's just dawned on me: I believe the thing that you are referring to, which has indeed been used since the dawn of time, is called "Evolution" not 'herd immunity'.

Its where a species looses the weak/susceptible parts of its population to something, like a virus, and those left then continue to populate the species with their genetic imperviousness/incompatibility to whatever killed off the susceptible members. It's survival of the fittest and takes Generations, not years, and won't work on COVID anyway.
In some ways, it can be looked at as a mild factor in evolution pressure. But there are other ways to achieve a degree of immunity within a population without killing off the weak susceptible which was a factor in smallpox and milkmaids. While cowpox offered immunity to dairy farmers it is estimated to have significantly contributed to the decline of the Native American population (some estimates a 95% population decrease following the introduction from European explorers). So isolating populations into cells come with its own risks combined with the reality that a significant portion of the more deadly viruses is zoonotic (jumping from non-human animal to humans). There have been a number of studies performed following the seasonal migration of birds and the spread of the seasonal flu along the eastern seaboard of the USA. Another study tracked the spread of the West Nile virus and it's being spread by Arctic Terns which are included in another study of Influenza A of spreading viruses inter-hemispheric (There is an ongoing risk assessment of Arctic terns becoming carriers of Covid19). While human to human transmission of viruses is far more prevalent nature is very good at spreading viruses around even without air travel.
 
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